晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 30 日 核心结论 分析师 【医药生物】康宁杰瑞生物-B（9966.HK）深度报告：差异化平台助力创新 升级，双抗 ADC 管线未来可期 盈利预测与评级：预计 2025-2027 年公司营收为 4.32/4.84/5.96 亿元，同比 增长-32.5%/12.1%/23.0%，当前股价对应 PS 为 20.6x/18.4x/14.9x。考虑 到创新药布局成效显著，后续商业化放量增厚业绩、临床数据披露等催化较 多，向上弹性较大。首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 【有色金属】有色金属行业周报（2025.12.22 -2025.12.28）：宏观氛围偏暖 叠加供给约束，关注金属商品价格普涨行情 本周核心关注一：美国第三季度 GDP 远超预期，消费支撑增长但通胀与就 业隐忧并存。本周核心关注二：国家统计局公告，经最终核实 2024 年 GDP 现价总量为 1348066 亿元。本周核心关注三：工信部公告，预计 2025 年规 模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.9%。本周核心关注四：金属商品价格显著上 涨，现货白银价格年内涨幅扩大至逾 160%。 周颖 S080052008000 ...

权重龙头股呈普跌态势，康方生物、科伦博泰生物-B跌超2%，百济神州、中国生物制药、信达生物、三生制药等集体跌逾1%。 1、纯粹，全面。不含CXO，纯正创新药！全面覆盖创新药研发类公司。 2、龙头占比大。前十大创新药龙头权重超72%，表征创新药硬核力量。 3、风险更可控。对流动性较差的成份股强制降权，有力管控尾部风险。 | | | 港股通创新药ETF (520880) 标的指数 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 前十成份股权重高达72.57%，龙头优势显著 | | | 代码 | 简称 | 权重(%) | 总市值(亿港元) | | 6160.HK | 百济神州 | 11.51 | 3,070 | | 1801.HK | 信达生物 | 10.19 | 1,613 | | 1177.HK | 中国生物制药 | 9.47 | 1,323 | | 9926.HK | 康方生物 | 8.99 | 1,132 | | 1093.HK | 石药集团 | 8.39 | 911 | | 1530.HK | 三生制药 | 8.32 | 760 | | 3692.HK | 翰森制药 | 6.63 ...

风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 12月29日，港股通创新药ETF南方（159297）跌1.96%，成交额4707.68万元。当日份额增加500.00万 份，最新份额为18.15亿份，近20个交易日份额增加1.86亿份。最新资产净值计算值为14.55亿元。 港股通创新药ETF南方（159297）业绩比较基准为国证港股通创新药指数(经估值汇率调整后)收益率， 管理人为南方基金管理股份有限公司，基金经理为张其思、叶震南，成立（2025-09-12）以来回报 为-19.85%，近一个月回报为-10.93%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oral weight loss drug sector is entering a critical commercialization phase, with significant regulatory approvals and partnerships indicating strong market potential and demand for innovative treatments [4][5][6]. Group 1: Recent Developments in Oral Weight Loss Drugs - On December 23, 2025, the FDA approved Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide for chronic weight management, marking a significant milestone for oral GLP-1 peptides [4]. - Eli Lilly's management anticipates that the oral small molecule weight loss drug orforglipron will likely receive approval by March 2026, potentially becoming the second approved oral weight loss medication [4]. - Recent data releases include Structure's report on aleniglipron, which showed a 11.3% weight loss in the 120mg dose group and 15.3% in the 240mg dose group after 36 weeks [4]. Group 2: Industry Partnerships and Strategic Moves - On December 9, 2025, Pfizer announced an exclusive collaboration with YaoPharma for the oral small molecule GLP-1R agonist YP05002, involving a $150 million upfront payment and up to $1.935 billion in milestones, indicating strong interest from multinational pharmaceutical companies in oral weight loss products [5]. - Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Innovation announced the establishment of a joint venture focused on innovative metabolic drug development, highlighting the recognition of the significant value in GLP-1 related metabolic disease medications [6]. Group 3: Market Trends and Valuation Recovery - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has seen a recovery in valuation, with the PE ratio stabilizing and increasing since Q1 2025, driven by macroeconomic conditions and supportive policies for innovative drugs [7]. - The global trend of returning to a rate-cutting environment, alongside increasing healthcare spending due to aging populations, is expected to expand the global demand for pharmaceuticals, particularly benefiting China's pharmaceutical industry [8]. Group 4: Investment Themes in Innovation - The investment focus is categorized into three phases: "0→1" for breakthrough technologies in innovative drugs, "1→10" for clinical validation of high-quality domestic innovative drugs, and "10→100" for leveraging China's efficiency in the pharmaceutical supply chain [9]. - The acceleration of business development (BD) for innovative drugs and the rise of high-end medical devices and consumables are seen as promising investment opportunities [9].

每经记者｜林姿辰 陈星 每经编辑｜文 多 2025年的中国医药行业步履铿锵、亮点纷呈，而作为行业发展的核心引擎，生物医药正迎来属于自己的历史性跨越。截至12月7日，今 年国内获批上市的创新药数量达到69个，较去年全年的48个实现大幅跃升，创新研发成果呈现井喷之势。 在创新药市场，今年另一大核心关键词非BD（商务拓展）莫属。 每经媒资库图 医药魔方发布的《2025Q1~Q3医药交易趋势分析》显示，2025年前三季度，中国医药领域对外授权交易总金额已达920.3亿美元。若将 第四季度信达生物与武田制药达成的重磅合作纳入统计，中国创新药的对外授权总额已突破1000亿美元大关——这意味着，平均每天 有2.7亿美元的国际资本在为中国原研创新药的价值投出信任票。 回望2025年那些刷屏的健康热点新闻，其背后离不开政策制定者的顶层设计、产业从业者的深耕细作和大众的坚定信心。这比金子更 珍贵的精神财富，共同铸就了本年度十大健康时事新闻。或许其中部分事件你未曾留意，又或许有些事件早已被淡忘，此刻不妨跟随 我们的脚步，一同回看那些改写国人健康答案的关键瞬间。 关键词①：创新药 事件：2025年政府工作报告首次明确"制定创新药目录 ...

Core Viewpoint - Junshi Biosciences is positioned as a comprehensive innovative pharmaceutical company with capabilities spanning drug discovery, clinical research, large-scale production, and commercialization, aiming for a global footprint while being rooted in China [2] Group 1: Company Overview - Junshi Biosciences was established on December 27, 2012, and went public on July 15, 2020, focusing on the research and commercialization of monoclonal antibody drugs and other therapeutic proteins [7] - The company's main revenue sources include drug sales (90.67%), technology licensing and royalties (8.74%), and technical services (0.59%) [7] - As of September 30, 2023, Junshi Biosciences reported a revenue of 1.806 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.06%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -596 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.72% [8] Group 2: Product Pipeline and Innovations - The company has developed a robust product pipeline, including its core product, Toripalimab, which is the first domestically approved PD-1 monoclonal antibody in China, with 11 approved indications and one supplemental NDA under review [2] - Toripalimab is also the first innovative biopharmaceutical developed and produced in China to receive FDA approval, with approvals in multiple regions including the U.S., EU, and Australia [2] - Junshi Biosciences is advancing its self-developed Tifcemalimab, the world's first anti-BTLA monoclonal antibody entering clinical development, with two Phase III registration trials ongoing [2] Group 3: Collaborations and Future Developments - On October 27, 2023, Junshi Biosciences announced collaborations with several institutions, including Peking University and the Chinese Academy of Sciences, to develop a monkeypox recombinant protein vaccine [3] - The company’s subsidiary, JunTuo Biologics, is involved in the preclinical development of vaccines for monkeypox and Zika virus, indicating a focus on expanding its vaccine pipeline [3]

NWRD06注射液是目前全球首个针对肝癌特异性靶点GPC3并进入Ⅱ期临床阶段的治疗性核酸药物，其 通过激活特异性T细胞免疫清除肿瘤细胞的机制具有创新性。基于该机制，理论上其适应症可拓展至癌 症的早期治疗阶段，即在获批肝癌术后复发适应症后可能具有挑战肝硬化适应症的可能性，存在扩展的 生物学合理性;同样的，对于更加严重的晚期肝癌治疗领域，NWRD06注射液作为一种免疫疗法，未来 可能与现有介入治疗、免疫检查点抑制剂(如PD-1抑制剂)等方案联合，探索治疗肝癌的潜力。 NWRD06注射液的Ⅰ期注册临床研究已于中国医学科学院肿瘤医院完成，基于GPC3靶点的治疗策略， 其核心价值在于精准识别肿瘤细胞及手术治疗不可及的微小病灶，可以在不损伤正常组织的前提下，发 挥抗肿瘤作用。随着Ⅱ期临床试验的顺利启动和首例受试者入组，NWRD06注射液向临床应用迈出了 坚实一步，未来有望为肝癌术后患者提供安全、无创的防复发选择，提高患者的生存期，传递新的健康 希望。 海翔药业（002099）(002099.SZ)发布公告，公司近日收到旗下产业基金管理人北京国信中数投资管理 有限公司出具的《通知函》。公司获悉北京国信海翔股权投资合伙企业( ...

智通财经APP讯，海翔药业(002099.SZ)发布公告，公司近日收到旗下产业基金管理人北京国信中数投资 管理有限公司出具的《通知函》。公司获悉北京国信海翔股权投资合伙企业(有限合伙)(以下简称"国信 海翔")参投公司诺未生物技术(无锡)有限公司(以下简称"诺未生物")自主研发的全球首款肝癌术后预防复 发核酸新药NWRD06的Ⅱ期临床试验在中国医学科学院肿瘤医院正式启动，并已完成首例受试者入组 及首次给药。 NWRD06注射液的Ⅰ期注册临床研究已于中国医学科学院肿瘤医院完成，基于GPC3靶点的治疗策略， 其核心价值在于精准识别肿瘤细胞及手术治疗不可及的微小病灶，可以在不损伤正常组织的前提下，发 挥抗肿瘤作用。随着Ⅱ期临床试验的顺利启动和首例受试者入组，NWRD06注射液向临床应用迈出了 坚实一步，未来有望为肝癌术后患者提供安全、无创的防复发选择，提高患者的生存期，传递新的健康 希望。 NWRD06注射液是目前全球首个针对肝癌特异性靶点GPC3并进入Ⅱ期临床阶段的治疗性核酸药物，其 通过激活特异性T细胞免疫清除肿瘤细胞的机制具有创新性。基于该机制，理论上其适应症可拓展至癌 症的早期治疗阶段，即在获批肝癌术后复发 ...

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing significant performance divergence among major multinational companies in 2025, with some companies thriving while others face substantial challenges [1][2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Novo Nordisk reported Q3 2025 revenues of 74.976 billion Danish Krone (approximately $11.276 billion), a year-on-year increase of 11%, with total revenues for the first three quarters reaching 229.92 billion Danish Krone (approximately $34.58 billion), up 15% [1]. - Key products such as Ozempic, Rybelsus, and Wegovy contributed significantly to Novo Nordisk's revenue, with Wegovy showing a remarkable growth of 54% [1]. - Merck's pharmaceutical revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was $43.299 billion, with a 68% decline in revenue from China, dropping to $1.452 billion [2]. - Eli Lilly achieved a remarkable turnaround with Q3 revenues of $17.6 billion, a 54% increase year-on-year, driven by the success of its GLP-1 drug [3]. - Pfizer was the only company in the top 10 to experience a decline in both revenue and profit, with Q3 revenues of $16.654 billion, down 6% year-on-year [4]. Strategic Adjustments - Major pharmaceutical companies are actively seeking solutions to address strategic challenges, including layoffs and business divestitures, with 190 layoffs reported in the first three quarters of 2025 [2][9]. - Companies like Merck and Novo Nordisk are implementing significant cost-cutting measures, with Merck aiming to save $3 billion by 2027 and Novo Nordisk planning to cut approximately 9,000 jobs [2][9]. - The trend of divesting mature assets is becoming common, with companies opting to sell off non-core or underperforming business units to focus on innovation [7][9]. Market Dynamics - The Chinese market is no longer a guaranteed success for multinational pharmaceutical companies, with significant performance disparities emerging [5][12]. - The ongoing "patent cliff" is a critical concern, with many companies facing over 20% of their revenue at risk due to expiring patents [5]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with local investment firms increasingly acquiring mature products from multinational companies, allowing for more localized management and decision-making [8][9]. Future Outlook - The future of multinational pharmaceutical companies will depend on their ability to innovate rapidly, adapt to local market policies, and manage patent expirations effectively [12][14]. - Companies that can successfully transition to innovation-driven models and integrate into China's biopharmaceutical ecosystem are likely to thrive [12][14]. - The restructuring of global pharmaceutical companies is creating both challenges and opportunities for local firms, as they may benefit from the divestiture of mature products and increased collaboration on early-stage innovations [14].

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing significant performance divergence among major multinational companies in 2025, with some achieving remarkable growth while others face substantial declines [1][4][6]. Financial Performance - Novo Nordisk reported Q3 2025 revenues of 74.976 billion Danish Krone (approximately $11.276 billion), a year-on-year increase of 11%, with total revenues for the first three quarters reaching 229.92 billion Danish Krone (approximately $34.58 billion), up 15% [1]. - Merck's pharmaceutical business revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was $43.299 billion, with a 68% year-on-year decline in revenue from China, dropping to $1.452 billion [2]. - Eli Lilly achieved a Q3 2025 revenue of $17.6 billion, a 54% increase from $11.439 billion in the same period last year, with total revenues for the first three quarters reaching $45.887 billion, up 46% [3]. - Pfizer's Q3 2025 total revenue was $16.654 billion, a 6% decrease from $17.702 billion year-on-year, with a 55% drop in revenue from its COVID-19 oral drug Paxlovid [4]. Strategic Adjustments - Major pharmaceutical companies are actively seeking solutions to address strategic challenges, including layoffs and business divestitures, with 190 layoffs reported in the biopharmaceutical sector in the first three quarters of 2025 [2][9]. - Companies like Merck and Novo Nordisk are implementing significant cost-cutting measures, with Merck aiming to save $3 billion by 2027 and Novo Nordisk targeting an annual cost saving of 8 billion Danish Krone [9]. - The trend of divesting mature assets is becoming common, with investment firms stepping in as buyers, indicating a shift in the operational landscape of the pharmaceutical industry in China [7][8]. Market Dynamics - The Chinese market is no longer a guaranteed profit zone for multinational pharmaceutical companies, with significant performance disparities emerging among leading firms [5][12]. - The ongoing "patent cliff" is a critical concern, with many companies facing over 20% revenue exposure to patent expirations in the next three years, impacting their financial stability [4][5]. - The competition in the pharmaceutical sector is intensifying, necessitating companies to adapt quickly to local market policies and innovate their product pipelines to maintain growth [6][12]. Future Outlook - The future of multinational pharmaceutical companies will heavily rely on their innovation capabilities, local market strategies, and management of patent expirations [12][15]. - Companies that successfully transition to innovation-driven models and establish strong positions in emerging therapeutic areas are likely to thrive, while those unable to adapt may face ongoing growth pressures [12][15]. - The restructuring of global pharmaceutical strategies is expected to accelerate, focusing on both downsizing and investing in innovative fields, such as gene and cell therapies [9][10].