今年以来，白银价格大幅攀升70%，显著跑赢同期上涨50%的黄金，成为贵金属市场中备受瞩目的焦点。然而，高盛分析师指出，白银本轮上涨主要依赖美 联储降息预期与短期资金推动，基础并不牢固。相较于黄金，白银市场规模更小、缺乏央行储备支持，使其价格波动更为剧烈。 尽管历史上金银价格走势往往同步，但近年来出现显著分化。高盛指出，自2022年俄罗斯外汇储备被冻结以来，全球央行的黄金购买量激增五倍，推动金价 持续走强，而白银并未受益于此结构性需求。当前金银比已从去年的84.7升至约102，反映出在衰退风险上升以及中国太阳能需求放缓的背景下，黄金的避 险属性更受青睐。 白银因其广泛应用于太阳能电池板等工业领域，呈现出更强的周期性特征，其作为避险资产的可靠性不及黄金。高盛分析师进一步指出："白银并未被纳入 国际货币基金组织的储备资产框架，在现代中央银行的投资组合中也几乎不占任何地位。"针对部分市场观点认为央行可能因金价过高转而配置白银，高盛 予以反驳："央行管理的是价值，而非重量。黄金储备通常以被动方式持有，并不用于日常操作。"即便金价持续走高，央行也仅会调整持有量以维持美元价 值稳定，而非转向配置白银。 黄金的独特储备优势 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, attributing it to three main factors: financial attributes, safe-haven demand, and monetary attributes, while emphasizing the long-term investment logic of gold as a super-sovereign credit asset [3][5][9]. Financial Attributes - The opportunity cost of holding gold is significantly influenced by the 10-year U.S. Treasury real interest rates, which have a negative correlation with gold prices. Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September, the market's expectation for another rate cut in October has risen to approximately 97.8% as of October 14, indicating a substantial increase compared to previous weeks [3][5]. Safe-Haven Demand - The economic impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy is becoming more apparent, with rising inflation and weak employment contributing to concerns about stagflation and long-term recession risks. This uncertainty is driving increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Recent developments, such as the U.S. government shutdown and renewed tariff tensions, are expected to further elevate market demand for safe-haven assets [5][9]. Monetary Attributes - The weakening of the U.S. dollar and the trend of de-globalization are diminishing the dollar's creditworthiness. Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with the People's Bank of China having added gold for 11 consecutive months. The ongoing high fiscal deficits are likely to maintain a trend of currency depreciation relative to gold, supporting higher gold prices [5][9]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that as long as there are no significant shifts in the three factors influencing gold pricing, the bullish sentiment towards gold will continue. The long-term investment logic is reinforced by the ongoing concerns regarding U.S. debt and the trend towards de-dollarization, alongside geopolitical risks and central bank demand for gold [9].

值班编辑 ｜ 宝珠 视觉 | 顾芗 一场历史性的逼空正在席卷伦敦白银市场，严重的现货短缺已将白银价格推升至前所未有的高度，突破 了1980年亨特兄弟试图操纵市场时创下的纪录。 据彭博数据，伦敦现货白银价格一度上涨0.4%，触及每盎司52.5868美元的历史新高。这一价格超越了 1980年1月在芝加哥期货交易所（现已不存在的合约）创下的52.50美元高点，当时德州亿万富翁亨特兄 弟试图通过囤积白银来垄断市场。 本文转载自华尔街见闻 ，， 在白银的带动下，现货黄金也攀升至每盎司4150美元，再创历史新高。 上午10时48分，现货白银突破53美元/盎司，再创历史新高。 见闻君此前提及，在强劲的避险需求、印度买盘激增以及对美国潜在关税的担忧等多重因素叠加下，伦 敦白银库存被迅速抽干，这一流动性危机已引发全球范围内的抢白银热潮。 伦敦现货价格一度比纽约期货价格高出3美元，这种史无前例的溢价促使交易员们采取了极端措施—— 包下跨大西洋航班的货舱空运银锭，这种昂贵的操作通常只用于运输黄金。尽管溢价在周二早盘回落至 约1.55美元，但市场紧张情绪丝毫未减。 伦敦流动性告急，借贷成本飙升 伦敦白银市场的流动性几乎完全枯竭，持有 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached a record high, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid U.S.-China trade tensions [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Gold prices are holding above $4,100 per troy ounce, with futures in New York rising 0.1% to $4,136.20 an ounce [1] - Spot gold trades 2.3% higher at $4,110.34, having reached $4,190.90 earlier in the session [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The rally in gold prices is attributed to growing political and economic uncertainties [1] - Expectations of further U.S. interest-rate cuts are contributing to the demand for gold [1] - Strong central-bank buying and inflows into ETFs are also driving the increase in gold prices [1]

今天一刷手机，好几家金店价格全跳上1200元/克了。 老庙黄金标到1218，周大福、六福、金至尊都是1215，周生生1213，连一向走实惠路线的老凤祥也涨到 1206。年初那会儿，金价还在800元上下晃悠，不到一年，每克硬生生涨了400块，这速度，比不少人的 工资涨得都快。 说白了，金饰价格 = 基础金价 + 加工费 + 品牌溢价 + 税费。基础金价涨了，品牌方很难逆势降价。现 在买一件金饰，可能一半的钱买的是金子本身，另一半买的是工费和那个logo。 这不是突然拉高，是实打实一路往上爬。1月时，周生生、老凤祥这些主流品牌足金饰品基本在798到 815元之间；6月就冲过了950；9月底站稳1100；现在直接捅破1200的心理关口。 上海黄金交易所的Au9999现货金价同步跟涨。国内金饰价格向来是"国际涨、国内跟"，再加上加工 费、品牌溢价和税费，终端售价涨得更猛。 | PROMESSA 周生生 | MINTYGREEN | 周生生 (hou Sang Sang EMPHASIS | MARCO BICEGO | 劳力士 脊舵表 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching a historic high of $4116.87 per ounce, is driven by escalating international trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainties, and expectations of loose monetary policy, with gold prices up 56% year-to-date [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold's price increase is directly linked to the deterioration of international trade relations, particularly following President Trump's recent trade provocations, which have prompted investors to seek gold as a safe haven [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts are a significant catalyst for gold's rise, with a 97% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October and a 100% chance of a cut in December [4][5]. - The strong demand from central banks and the inflow of ETF funds provide structural support for the gold market, reinforcing its upward trajectory [5][7]. Group 2: Institutional Forecasts - Multiple international financial institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with Bank of America projecting a target of $5000 per ounce by 2026, and Societe Generale predicting an average price of $4488 per ounce next year [7][8]. - Analysts emphasize that the current market dynamics, including central bank purchases and ETF inflows, are based on empirical data, supporting the bullish outlook for gold [7][8]. Group 3: Currency and Gold Relationship - The recent rebound of the US dollar, which typically inversely correlates with gold prices, highlights the volatility driven by trade tensions, suggesting that any renewed trade threats could lead to a decline in the dollar and a corresponding rise in gold [5][9]. - The interplay between the dollar and gold remains complex, with the dollar serving as a primary safe haven, yet trade uncertainties amplifying its fluctuations [9].

白银和黄金价格走势趋同，但近年两者分化明显。高盛2025年5月报告指出，自2022年俄罗斯储备被冻结后，中央银行黄金购买量激增五倍，推高金价，而 白银未受此支撑。当前金银比从去年的84.7升至约102，反映黄金在高衰退风险和放缓的中国太阳能需求（限制白银工业用途）中更具优势。白银因其在太 阳能电池板等工业领域的广泛应用而更具周期性，使其作为避险资产的可靠性逊于黄金。高盛分析师强调："白银未被国际货币基金组织储备框架认可，也 不在现代中央银行投资组合中占重要地位。中央银行管理的是价值而非重量。黄金储备被动持有，非操作性使用。"即使金价上涨，中央银行只会减少持有 量以维持美元价值平衡，而非转向白银。 白银市场：小池塘，大波澜白银市场规模仅为黄金的九分之一，资金流入对价格影响更剧烈。近期白银价格自8月底以来飙升超35%，部分因伦敦——全球 实物白银交易中心——库存降至多年低点，引发流动性紧张。然而，高盛警告，缺乏中央银行需求支撑的白银价格极易受投资情绪波动影响："一旦资金流 入放缓，甚至暂时撤离，可能引发大幅回调，近期伦敦市场的紧张状况也将随之缓解。"白银类似黄金的"放大版"：宏观风险推高贵金属需求时，白银涨幅 更 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market continues to perform strongly, with gold and silver prices hitting new highs. The long - term narrative of gold as the ultimate safe - haven asset is becoming more prominent, and its demand is expected to increase further. [1][2][18] - The copper market is affected by factors such as tight concentrate supply, high smelting output, and the Indonesian mine accident, which may lead to a supply - demand gap and support copper prices in the long term. [2][19] - The crude oil market has a short - term downward breakthrough trend, although the demand is expected to grow in the next two years according to OPEC's report. [3][12] - The stock index is likely to maintain a long - term upward trend, but short - term fluctuations may increase due to Sino - US trade issues. The market style may become more balanced in the fourth quarter. [9] - The bond market is expected to be supported by a loose monetary policy, and the price of bond futures is recommended to be bullish. [10][11] Summary by Directory 1. Main News Concerns International News - US President Trump hinted at canceling new tariffs on China. [5] - The leaders of the US, Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar signed a cease - fire agreement for Gaza at the "Peace Summit" in Sharm El - Sheikh. [1][3][12] Domestic News - In September, China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 8% year - on - year. The export was 2.34 trillion yuan, up 8.4%, and the import was 1.7 trillion yuan, up 7.5%. China's rare earth exports in September decreased for the third consecutive month. [6] Industry News - China has officially implemented a special port fee for US ships starting today. [7] 2. Overseas Market Daily Returns | Variety | Unit | 10/12 | 10/13 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | S&P 500 | Points | 6,552.51 | 6,654.72 | 102.21 | 1.56% | | European STOXX50 | Points | 4,701.04 | 4,719.93 | 18.89 | 0.40% | | FTSE China A50 Futures | Points | 14,978.00 | 14,805.00 | - 173.00 | - 1.16% | | US Dollar Index | Points | 98.82 | 99.26 | 0.44 | 0.44% | | ICE Brent Crude Continuous | USD/Barrel | 62.09 | 63.39 | 1.30 | 2.09% | | London Gold Spot | USD/Ounce | 4,017.85 | 4,110.02 | 92.17 | 2.29% | | London Silver | USD/Ounce | 50.13 | 52.33 | 2.20 | 4.39% | | LME Aluminum | USD/Ton | 2,746.00 | 2,757.00 | 11.00 | 0.40% | | LME Copper | USD/Ton | 10,374.00 | 10,802.00 | 428.00 | 4.13% | | LME Zinc | USD/Ton | 2,984.50 | 3,012.00 | 27.50 | 0.92% | | LME Nickel | USD/Ton | 15,215.00 | 15,180.00 | - 35.00 | - 0.23% | | ICE No.11 Sugar | Cents/Pound | 16.1 | 15.57 | - 0.53 | - 3.29% | | ICE No.2 Cotton | Cents/Pound | 63.77 | 63.54 | - 0.23 | - 0.36% | | CBOT Soybeans | Cents/Bushel | 1,007.00 | 1,008.25 | 1.25 | 0.12% | | CBOT Soybean Meal Current | USD/Short Ton | 275.60 | 274.50 | - 1.10 | - 0.40% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Current | Cents/Pound | 49.97 | 50.53 | 0.56 | 1.12% | | CBOT Wheat Current | Cents/Bushel | 498.75 | 496.75 | - 2.00 | - 0.40% | | CBOT Corn Current | Cents/Bushel | 413.50 | 410.50 | - 3.00 | - 0.73% | [8] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: After the high - level shock in September, the stock index is likely to enter a direction - selection stage again, with a high probability of maintaining a long - term upward trend. Short - term fluctuations may increase due to Sino - US trade issues. The market style may become more balanced in the fourth quarter. [9] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond dropped to 1.754%. With a loose monetary policy expected, the price of Treasury bond futures is recommended to be bullish. [10][11] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC rebounded 0.27% at night. Although OPEC expects oil demand to grow in the next two years, the short - term trend is downward. [3][12] - **Methanol**: Ma fell 0.26% at night. With high inventory and expected import arrivals, methanol is short - term bullish. [13] - **Rubber**: Natural rubber prices fell on Monday. With smooth supply and slow inventory reduction, the price is expected to be weak in the short term. [14] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures are weakly operating. The price follows the cost - end fluctuations, and the market sentiment is cautious. [15] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures continue to be weak, and soda ash futures closed positive. The market is cautious, and the focus is on consumption in autumn and policy changes. [16][17] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold benefits from concerns about the resurgence of the trade war and expectations of two interest rate cuts this year. It is expected to strengthen as the ultimate safe - haven asset. [2][18] - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 1.64% at night. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, supporting copper prices in the long term. [2][19] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose 0.13% at night. Domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and it follows copper prices in the short term. [20] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand both increased, and the inventory decreased. The price is supported, and there is an expectation of project resumption. [21] Black Commodities - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session prices were weak, and short - term fluctuations are expected to intensify due to factors such as steel production and Sino - US trade issues. [22] - **Iron Ore**: With strong demand from steel mills and reduced global shipments, the iron ore market is expected to be bullish. [23] - **Steel**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The market has a weak supply - demand balance, and hot - rolled coils perform better than rebar. [24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Night - session prices of soybean and rapeseed meal rose. US soybean prices are expected to be weak, while domestic prices may rise due to supply concerns. [25] - **Oils and Fats**: Night - session prices were strong. Although short - term pressure exists due to inventory and trade issues, long - term support comes from the production season and bio - diesel policies. [26] - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be volatile, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be weak due to supply pressure. [27][28] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and domestic cotton prices are expected to be weak due to factors such as new - cotton supply and weak downstream demand. [29] Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The text seems to have a wrong insertion, repeating the content of precious metals. No valid information about container shipping to Europe is provided. [30]

一场历史性的逼空正在席卷伦敦白银市场， 严重的现货短缺已将白银价格推升至前所未有的高度，突破了1980年亨特兄弟试图操纵市场时创下的纪录。 据彭博数据，伦敦现货白银价格一度上涨0.4%， 触及每盎司52.5868美元的历史新高 。 这一价格超越了1980年1月在芝加哥期货交易所（现已不存在的合 约）创下的52.50美元高点，当时德州亿万富翁亨特兄弟试图通过囤积白银来垄断市场。 上午10时48分， 现货白银突破53美元/盎司， 再创历史新高。 在白银的带动下，现货黄金也攀升至每盎司4150美元，再创历史新高。 见闻君 此前提及 ，在强劲的避险需求、印度买盘激增以及对美国潜在关税的担忧等多重因素叠加下，伦敦白银库存被迅速抽干， 这一流动性危机已引发全球 范围内的抢白银热潮。 伦敦现货价格一度比纽约期货价格高出3美元，这种史无前例的溢价促使交易员们采取了极端措施——包下跨大西洋航班的货舱空运银锭，这种昂贵的操作通 常只用于运输黄金。 尽管溢价在周二早盘回落至约1.55美元，但市场紧张情绪丝毫未减。 伦敦流动性告急，借贷成本飙升 "我此前从未见过如此情形，"Greenland Investment Managemen ...

一场历史性的逼空正在席卷白银市场，伦敦现货白银价格一度上涨0.4%，触及每盎司52.5868美元的历史新高。高盛警告称，本轮涨势主要由 伦敦市场的实物紧张驱动，而随着来自中国和美国的大量实物流入，这种紧张局面预计将在未来1-2周内得到缓解，白银价格或迎剧烈调整。 一场历史性的逼空正在席卷伦敦白银市场，严重的现货短缺已将白银价格推升至前所未有的高度，突破了1980年亨特兄弟试图操纵市场时创 下的纪录。 据彭博数据，伦敦现货白银价格一度上涨0.4%，触及每盎司52.5868美元的历史新高。 这一价格超越了1980年1月在芝加哥期货交易所（现 已不存在的合约）创下的52.50美元高点，当时德州亿万富翁亨特兄弟试图通过囤积白银来垄断市场。 华尔街见闻此前提及，在强劲的避险需求、印度买盘激增以及对美国潜在关税的担忧等多重因素叠加下，伦敦白银库存被迅速抽干，这一流 动性危机已引发全球范围内的抢白银热潮。 伦敦现货价格一度比纽约期货价格高出3美元，这种史无前例的溢价促使交易员们采取了极端措施——包下跨大西洋航班的货舱空运银锭，这 种昂贵的操作通常只用于运输黄金。 尽管溢价在周二早盘回落至约1.55美元，但市场紧张情绪丝毫未 ...