1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp rise in international gold prices is the result of geopolitical turmoil, the shaking of the global political and economic order, and a continuously loose liquidity environment. In 2026, the Fed is expected to continue to cut interest rates, and the loose liquidity environment provides strong support for the rise of precious metals. Global investors' strategic allocation demand for precious metals has increased, and the scale of gold and silver ETFs has continued to expand, driving up precious metal prices. Short - term silver has risen significantly, and there may be some pressure for funds to take profits, while gold is more stable [4]. - Morgan Stanley expects that driven by geopolitical uncertainty, continuous central bank gold purchases, and strong ETF demand, the gold price is expected to rise to $5,700 per ounce in the second half of the year. If the Fed starts to cut interest rates in 2026, it may further support strong physical gold demand [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 on the previous day were 1146.58 and 1143.32 respectively, with increases of 28.20 (2.52%) and 27.68 (2.48%) compared to the day before. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 on the previous day were 27,189 and 27,207 respectively, with increases of 2259 (9.06%) and 2242 (8.98%) compared to the day before [3]. - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 were 85,261 and 215,820 respectively, and the trading volumes were 76,211 and 395,962 respectively. The positions of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 were 169,868 and 322,579 respectively, and the trading volumes were 605,689 and 965,900 respectively [3]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The spot premiums and discounts of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 were - 2.32 and 0.94 respectively, and those of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 were 324 and 306 respectively [3]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D on the previous day was 1144.26, up 33.91 (3.05%) from the day before. The closing price of London Gold was $5042.75 per troy ounce, up $21.76 (0.44%) from the day before. The closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D on the previous day was 27,513, up 2525 (10.10%) from the day before. The closing price of London Silver was $106.61 per troy ounce, up $0.53 (0.52%) from the day before [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The current spreads of Shanghai Gold 2606 - Shanghai Gold 2604 and Shanghai Silver 2606 - Shanghai Silver 2604 were 3.26 and - 18.00 respectively. The current gold - to - silver ratio in the spot market was 41.59, and the ratios of Shanghai Gold to London Gold and Shanghai Silver to London Silver were 1.01 and 1.15 respectively [3]. Inventory - **Futures Exchanges**: The current inventories of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 103,029 kg and 573,810 kg respectively, with changes of + 1020 kg and - 7280 kg compared to the day before. The current inventories of gold and silver on the COMEX were 35,941,502 troy ounces and 415,241,837 troy ounces respectively, with changes of - 202,778 troy ounces and - 1,183,026 troy ounces compared to the day before [3]. Related Derivatives and Indicators - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US Dollar Index, S&P 500 Index, 10 - year US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate were 97.04, 6,950.23, 4.22%, $64.89, and 6.9572 respectively, with changes of - 0.46, + 34.62, - 0.02%, - 0.55, and - 0.0070 compared to the day before [3]. - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF were 1,087 tons and 15,974 tons respectively, with changes of 0 tons and - 116 tons compared to the day before. The current net positions of CFTC speculators in gold and silver were 244,770 and 25,214 respectively, with changes of - 6468 and - 6846 compared to the day before [3]. Macroeconomic News - **Geopolitical**: The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group has entered the US Central Command's area of responsibility in the western Indian Ocean. If the White House orders an attack on Iran, the strike group could launch military operations within "one or two days." Trump said the situation in Iran is "changing rapidly" and that Iran wants to reach an agreement [4]. - **Trade**: Trump announced that the reciprocal tariffs on South Korean automobiles, timber, pharmaceuticals, and all other goods will be raised from 15% to 25% due to the South Korean Congress's failure to approve the trade agreement [4]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 2.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 15.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 84.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.4% [4]. - **Commodity Market Analysis**: An analyst pointed out that this is one of the most glorious days in the silver market. The price of silver has risen rapidly due to its small market size and low liquidity. Retail investors are flocking in, and there is a (relatively small - scale) gap in the spot market. This is good news for silver miners, but selling some future production in the futures market may bring some selling pressure [4]. - **Economic Data**: The monthly rate of US durable goods orders in November was 5.3%, the largest increase since May 2025 [4].

与此同时，国际金融市场避险情绪升温。分析指出，受政治与财政风险上升影响，投资者纷纷转向避险 资产。1 月 26 日，黄金价格一度大幅上扬 2.5%，创下每盎司 5100 美元以上的历史新高；现货白银日 内涨幅更是高达 14%，最高触及 117 美元/盎司。然而，国际金银价格在冲高后大幅跳水，现货白银尾 盘转跌，报约 102.8 美元/盎司；现货黄金向下跌破 5000 美元/盎司，最终收涨 0.26%。1 月 27 日亚洲早 盘，国际黄金高开后继续拉升，白银震荡反弹，盘中涨幅逾 2%。 在贸易领域，一则消息引发广泛关注。据央视新闻 1 月 27 日报道，美国总统特朗普宣称对韩国产汽车 等产品加征关税。韩国总统府青瓦台表示，尚未收到美方正式通报及相关说明。韩国政府 27 日上午紧 急召开相关政府部门会议研究应对策略，正在加拿大访问的韩国产业通商部部长金正官也将尽快前往美 国进行磋商。当地时间 1 月 26 日，特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"发文称，因韩国国会未批准并落实 此前与美国达成的贸易协议，美方决定将对韩国汽车、木材、制药产品以及其他对等关税项目的税率从 15%上调至 25%。 当地时间 1 月 26 日， ...

隔夜美股盘中拉升。黄金、白银今日高开后拉升。 1月27日亚洲早盘，国际黄金高开后拉升，白银震荡反弹，盘中涨逾2%。 美股收涨 黄金白银巨震 美股三大指数集体收涨，纳指涨0.43%，道指涨0.64%，标普500指数涨0.5%。 个股方面，苹果、甲骨文、Meta涨超2%，英特尔跌超5%，AMD、特斯拉跌超3%。市场关注苹果、甲骨文、Meta等将于本周公布财报。 热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.63%，百度跌超3%，小鹏汽车跌超2%，阿里巴巴跌超1%，理想汽车涨超1%。 分析称，受政治与财政风险上升推动，投资者转向避险资产。1月26日黄金价格一度大涨2.5%，创下每盎司5100美元以上的历史新高。现货白银日内涨幅 一度高达14%，最高触及117美元/盎司。不过国际金银在冲高后大幅跳水，现货白银尾盘转跌，报约102.8美元/盎司。现货黄金向下跌破5000美元/盎司， 收涨0.26%。 特朗普称提高对韩国多种商品关税税率至25% 据央视新闻报道，1月27日，针对美国总统特朗普宣称对韩国产汽车等产品加征关税，韩国总统府青瓦台表示尚未收到美方正式通报以及相关说明。 韩国政府27日上午将召开相关政府部门会议研 ...

隔夜美股盘中拉升。黄金、白银今日高开后拉升。 美股收涨 黄金白银巨震 美股三大指数集体收涨，纳指涨0.43%，道指涨0.64%，标普500指数涨0.5%。 个股方面，苹果、甲骨文、Meta涨超2%，英特尔跌超5%，AMD、特斯拉跌超3%。市场关注苹果、甲 骨文、Meta等将于本周公布财报。 热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.63%，百度跌超3%，小鹏汽车跌超2%，阿里巴巴 跌超1%，理想汽车涨超1%。 分析称，受政治与财政风险上升推动，投资者转向避险资产。1月26日黄金价格一度大涨2.5%，创下每 盎司5100美元以上的历史新高。现货白银日内涨幅一度高达14%，最高触及117美元/盎司。不过国际金 银在冲高后大幅跳水，现货白银尾盘转跌，报约102.8美元/盎司。现货黄金向下跌破5000美元/盎司，收 涨0.26%。 1月27日亚洲早盘，国际黄金高开后拉升，白银震荡反弹，盘中涨逾2%。 特朗普称提高对韩国多种商品关税税率至25% 据央视新闻报道，1月27日，针对美国总统特朗普宣称对韩国产汽车等产品加征关税，韩国总统府青瓦 台表示尚未收到美方正式通报以及相关说明。 韩国政府27日上午将召开相关政府部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching a historical high of over $5,100 per ounce, is primarily driven by supply scarcity and increasing demand from various sectors, including central banks and industrial applications [1][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The total amount of gold mined throughout history is approximately 216,000 tons, with only about 55,000 to 64,000 tons of gold currently available for extraction under existing technological conditions. At the current mining rate, global gold reserves could be depleted in 15 to 18 years without new discoveries [1]. - Industrial demand for gold is significant, accounting for about 15% of global gold usage, while jewelry constitutes approximately 45%. Central bank reserves and gold ETFs represent 17% and 22% respectively [4]. Central Bank Activity - Central banks have increased their gold reserves significantly, with the proportion of gold in global official reserves rising to about 28.9%, an increase of approximately 11.9% year-on-year. This trend is largely attributed to geopolitical instability, which enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, have led to a reconfiguration of the global governance system, further elevating gold's status as a protective asset [4]. Economic Context - The deterioration of the U.S. dollar's credit system, exacerbated by rising national debt projected to exceed $40 trillion, is prompting global central banks to adjust their reserve assets. This shift is contributing to the increased demand for gold as an alternative investment [5]. Investment Trends - The global gold ETF market has seen a substantial increase, with a net inflow of approximately $89 billion in 2025, bringing total assets under management to a record $559 billion. This trend indicates a growing interest among both institutional and individual investors in gold as a viable investment option [5].

【导读】疯狂的白银 大家好啊，今晚继续关注海外市场的表现，白银，又涨疯了。 白银暴涨 1月26日晚间，现货白银涨势不止，向上触及112美元/盎司，日内一度涨超8%。纽约期银也一度突破112美元/盎司，日内涨超10%。 有分析师指出，本周白银的上涨，还受到华盛顿与欧洲盟友关系出现裂痕的推动；同时，结束俄乌战争的最新谈判尝试迄今未能取得 突破。对美联储独立性的挑战，也进一步点燃了避险买需。 ING集团大宗商品策略师Ewa Manthey表示："在政策不确定性加剧的背景下，美元走弱、实际利率下行，以及投资者对硬资产偏好增 强，共同强化了对白银的支撑。"她指出，相较黄金，白银波动更大——这既源于其市场规模更小，也与其兼具工业金属与投资金属的 双重属性有关，从而放大了近期行情的幅度。 与此同时，全球白银市场已连续五年处于供应缺口。随着白银价格不断走高，散户买盘持续涌入。 此外，在特朗普表示其已完成对下一任美联储主席候选人的面试后，贵金属也获得支撑——这一表态再度引发市场对央行独立性的担 忧。特朗普对美联储的再度抨击、对委内瑞拉的军事干预，以及"吞并"格陵兰岛的威胁，进一步助推所谓"货币贬值交易"（debasement ...

北京时间1月27日凌晨，美股周一收高。交易员密切关注政治动态，并为关键财报周及美联储最新利率 决议做准备。 道指涨313.69点，涨幅为0.64%，报49412.40点；纳指涨100.11点，涨幅为0.43%，报23601.36点；标普 500指数涨34.62点，涨幅为0.50%，报6950.23点。 苹果、Meta Platforms和微软等公司普遍上涨，这几家公司均将在本周公布财报。 美国总统特朗普周末威胁称，若加拿大与中国达成贸易协议，将对加输美商品关税提高100%。加拿大 总理马克·卡尼回应称渥太华"无意"寻求与北京达成自由贸易协议。 Vital Knowledge分析师亚当·克里萨富利指出："局势仍非常不稳定。似乎无人特别担心特朗普对加拿大 100%关税的威胁会成真（尤其是包括卡尼在内的加拿大官员坚称该国未与中国谈判自贸协议），但持 续挥舞关税大棒施压盟友的做法，仍在缓慢侵蚀市场情绪。" 投资者同时关注华盛顿政局。本月第二起联邦移民官员在明尼苏达州枪击美国公民致死事件引发的愤怒 持续升温，引发对美国政府可能停摆的担忧。 数名民主党参议员表示，若1.2万亿美元拨款方案中包含国土安全部预算，将不予通过。 ...

美国国会去年12月通过一项联邦政府临时拨款法案，结束持续43天的美国联邦政府史上最长"停摆"。临 时拨款法案本月底到期，国会必须在月底前通过新的拨款法案，否则许多联邦政府机构将再次"关门"。 来源：环球市场播报 北京时间1月27日凌晨，美股周一尾盘维持涨势。交易员密切关注华盛顿政治动态，并为关键财报周及 美联储货币政策会议做准备。本周将有超过90家标普500指数成分公司公布季度财报，其中包括苹果、 Meta Platforms和微软等。黄金价格突破5100美元/盎司。 道指涨324.14点，涨幅为0.66%，报49422.85点；纳指涨143.40点，涨幅为0.61%，报23644.65点；标普 500指数涨43.74点，涨幅为0.63%，报6959.35点。 周一黄金现货价格一举突破5100美元/盎司。地缘政治裂痕加深与美元走弱的"双重组合"，促使投资者 争相寻求避险资产；与此同时，日元在经历剧烈波动后大幅走强，令市场神经依旧紧绷。交易员正等待 本周稍晚公布的美联储政策会议结果。 特朗普总统上周末威胁称，若加拿大与中国达成贸易协议，将对加拿大输美商品额外征收100%的关 税。受此影响，加拿大总理马克·卡尼回 ...

Silver Market Insights - Silver prices surged significantly, reaching $112 per ounce, with intraday gains exceeding 8% for spot silver and over 10% for NYMEX silver futures [1][4] - The global silver market has experienced a supply deficit for five consecutive years, leading to increased retail buying as prices rise [5] Market Drivers - Analysts attribute the recent rise in silver prices to geopolitical tensions, particularly the rift between Washington and European allies, and the lack of progress in negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war [4] - The weakening of the US dollar and declining real interest rates, combined with a growing preference for hard assets among investors, have further supported silver prices [4] Industrial Demand - Silver's unique properties make it essential in various industrial applications, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, although rising prices may lead some companies to reduce their usage [6] Broader Market Context - The performance of precious metals, including gold, has been bolstered by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and political risks in Washington, with gold prices reaching new highs [10] - The market is closely monitoring developments in US government funding and potential tariffs on Canadian goods, which could impact investor sentiment and market stability [10]

On Sunday, the price of gold hit a major milestone: it surpassed the $5,000-per-ounce mark for the first time in history. But while gold’s price rise is a good thing for investors in the precious metal, it may also signal broader investor anxiety about the markets—and the world. Here’s what you need to know about gold’s surge. Most Read from Fast Company Gold trades above $5,000 for the first time ever On Sunday, gold surpassed $5,000 per troy ounce—the first time it has ever done so. The precious yell ...