目前，利率期货市场已充分定价了2026年至少两次降息的预期，这与美联储内部近期偏鹰派的分歧姿态 形成对比。 今日周一(1月5日)亚盘时段，纸白银目前交投于16.864一线上方，今日开盘于16.926元/克，截至发稿， 纸白银暂报16.926元/克，上涨4.69%，最高触及16.927元/克，最低下探16.933元/克，目前来看，纸白银 盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 美元指数在2026年开局便延续反弹走势，触及近两周高位。美元走高在一定程度上压制银价。 市场在等待一系列关键经济数据，尤其是本周五的非农就业报告，以研判美国经济的真实状况和美联储 的政策路径；二是对美联储主席更迭的预期。现任主席鲍威尔的任期将于5月结束，特朗普总统已表示 将在本月公布提名人选。市场普遍预期，特朗普提名的候选人可能更倾向于支持更快、更大幅度的降 息，以呼应其长期对高利率的批评。 道明证券的Bart Melek等策略师认为，关于降息的讨论，叠加对美国债务风险和贸易政策的担忧，共同 构成了推动白银上涨的宏观背景。 【最新纸白银行情解析】 日图来看，纸白银价格高涨，走势处于上扬状态，布林带收缩，表明上涨动能减弱，目前多头态势重回 主 ...

更妙的是中方减持的策略，小批量、多批次的操作既避免了一次性抛售冲击全球金融市场导致自身资产 缩水，又牢牢掌握了博弈主动权。毕竟美债这东西，手里留一点就能当筹码，真到谈判桌上才有更多周 旋空间。尤其是在特朗普和财长贝森特明确表示不想还本金的情况下，这种温和而坚定的减持，就是在 为可能的经济风险提前布局，既给了美国面子，又最大限度保护了自身利益，更向全球传递出对美债信 誉的担忧。 完整内容查看视频 中国减持美债的动作绝非偶然，更不是简单的资产调整。对比其他美国海外"债主"就很清楚，日本同期 增持107亿美元、英国增持132亿美元，英国甚至借此超越中国成为第二大美债持有国。全球资本的态度 分化，本质上是对美国债务风险的重新评估。美国财政赤字居高不下，美联储降息预期反复无常，让美 债的信用溢价持续上升。中国这一年累计减持美债幅度超过9%，跌破7000亿美元大关，说白了就是看 透了美国经济繁荣表象下的泡沫——高科技股市值虚高争议不断，经济数据真实性遭人质疑，继续持有 美债只会把风险扛在自己身上。 ...

美国 AI 泡沫风险可能与全球美元债务风险同步释放 20251217 摘要 美国通过债务扩张刺激总需求，尤其在全球需求不足时，依赖国债发行。 此模式虽推动科技发展和经济增长，但依赖持续的债务扩张能力。 美国利用全球化和技术垄断缓解国内劳资矛盾，大型科技公司在全球获 取利润，并通过政府转移支付缓解贫富分化，将成本转嫁至全球。 当前美国面临债务扩张能力不足的挑战，尤其在 AI 等新兴技术领域，缺 乏足够债务支持将影响供需循环。中国技术自主可控对美国技术垄断构 成冲击。 AI 发展前景高度依赖宏观经济环境和政府债务扩张能力。美国急于发展 AI，旨在通过新的财富分配缓解财政压力，但面临国际竞争和国内矛盾。 美国的债务扩张与其全球利润分配能力密切相关。拜登政府债务扩张速 度超过利润增长，导致债务问题显现，美元信用面临挑战，黄金价格上 涨反映市场担忧。 AI 技术通过降低劳动力回报、提高资本回报，帮助美国获取更多全球财 富分配，强化超额利润分配特征，可能加剧与其他发达国家的竞争。 若 AI 泡沫破灭，将暴露美国债务风险，引发美股崩盘，并可能引发对美 债的大规模抛售，加剧金融危机，同时可能促使中国市场风格切换和人 民币升值 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After nearly two weeks of oscillatory corrections, the precious metals market regained upward momentum this week, with both gold and silver prices reaching new stage highs. Uncertainty in macro - data, increased bets on Fed rate cuts, liquidity buffers, and rising U.S. government debt risks pushed prices up. However, Fed officials' divergent stances and neutral - hawkish signals affected the probability of a December rate cut, putting pressure on precious metals [6]. - In the short term, if the U.S. stock market continues to correct, liquidity risks may increase the pressure for a high - level correction in precious metals. The Fed's more hawkish stance than expected may suppress rate - cut expectations and push up U.S. Treasury yields, potentially harming gold prices. In the long run, due to the increasing U.S. debt pressure and weakening investor confidence in the dollar, gold remains attractive, and with central bank gold purchases, the gold price center may rise further [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The precious metals market rebounded this week. The passage of the temporary appropriation bill, uncertainty in macro - data, signs of a weakening job market, and rising U.S. government debt risk pushed up gold and silver prices. Fed officials had different stances, and the probability of a December rate cut dropped to 50%. Silver's upward trend was stronger than gold's, causing the gold - silver ratio to decline [6]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, a continued correction in the U.S. stock market and a more hawkish Fed could pressure precious metal prices. In the long term, the high U.S. debt and central bank gold purchases are favorable for gold. Next week, the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract is expected to trade between 900 - 970 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract between 11500 - 12500 yuan/kilogram [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Performance**: As of November 14, 2025, COMEX silver was at $52.470 per ounce, up 8.79% week - on - week; the Shanghai silver main 2512 contract was at 12351 yuan/kilogram, up 7.55%. COMEX gold was at $4169.5 per ounce, up 4.03%; the Shanghai gold main 2512 contract was at 953.20 yuan/gram, up 3.47% [9]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of November 13, 2025, SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 0.82% to 1048.93 tons, and SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 0.4% to 15173 tons [14]. - **COMEX Positions**: Due to the U.S. government shutdown, COMEX position data was suspended. As of September 23, 2025, COMEX gold total positions increased by 2.43% to 528789 contracts, and net positions increased by 0.13% to 266749 contracts. COMEX silver total positions increased by 1.75% to 165805 contracts, and net positions increased by 1.43% to 52276 contracts [15][19]. - **Basis**: As of November 13, 2025, the gold basis was - 4.22 yuan/gram, and the silver basis was - 70 yuan/kilogram [22]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.81% to 37541509.64 ounces, and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory increased by 2.05% to 89616 kilograms. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.8% to 478558059 ounces, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by 6.40% to 623052 kilograms [28]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand - **Silver Industry**: As of September 2025, China's silver imports increased by 19.17% to 245749 kilograms, while silver ore imports decreased by 13.19% to 160587998 kilograms. Semiconductor silver demand drove up the growth rate of integrated circuit production. As of September 2025, the monthly integrated circuit production was 4371000 units, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.90% [34][39]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: As of the end of 2024, silver industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and net bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22%; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces (compared to - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year); total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year. Total silver supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year, resulting in a supply - demand gap of - 148.9 million ounces, a 26% decrease from the previous period [45][49]. - **Gold Industry**: This week, gold jewelry prices rose with the increase in gold prices. As of November 13, 2025, Lao Feng Xiang's gold price was 1325 yuan/gram, Chow Tai Fook's was 1333 yuan/gram, and Zhou Liu Fu's was 1295 yuan/gram. The Chinese gold recycling price was 954.90 yuan/gram, up 4.60% week - on - week [56]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: According to the World Gold Council, in Q3 2025, gold ETF investment demand increased significantly. Central banks net - purchased about 220 tons of gold in Q3, with a total of 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025 [58]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - **Dollar and Treasury Yields**: This week, the U.S. dollar index declined under pressure at a high level, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield decreased slightly. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread was basically the same as last week, and the CBOE gold volatility increased significantly. The 10 - year inflation - balanced interest rate was 2.28%, slightly lower than last week [62][66][70]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: In Q3 2025, central banks around the world purchased 220 tons of gold, a 28% increase quarter - on - quarter, reversing the decline at the beginning of the year. The net gold purchase volume in Q3 was 220 tons, a 28% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 10% increase year - on - year. The total net gold purchase volume from the beginning of the year to now was 634 tons, lower than the extremely high levels of the past three years but still significantly higher than the level before 2022 [74][76].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Gold prices fluctuated more sharply during the session, while silver prices continued a strong rebound. The employment market's downward risk has significantly increased, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 67.6%, slightly higher than before [3]. - The U.S. Senate passed the temporary appropriation bill, which eases concerns about short - term market liquidity shortages but implies an increase in U.S. government debt, which is positive for gold prices. Looking ahead, the market is pricing in weak employment data and moderate inflation expectations in advance, and the weakening dollar may boost precious metals. The escalating Middle East geopolitical situation provides safe - haven support, while the optimistic expectation of the U.S. government reopening may weaken safe - haven demand and resist the upward movement of gold prices. However, in the long - term, the increasing U.S. debt risk is in line with the long - term bullish logic for gold [3]. - Technically, the daily RSI shows that the upward momentum of gold prices is increasing, but short - term correction risks should be noted. The key resistance level for London gold is between $4150 - $4200, and the strong support is at $4000. The focus range for the SHFE gold 2512 contract is 900 - 960 yuan/gram, and for the SHFE silver 2512 contract is 11500 - 12200 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the SHFE gold main contract was 945.76 yuan/gram, down 3.12 yuan; the closing price of the SHFE silver main contract was 12073 yuan/kilogram, up 193 yuan [3]. - **Positions**: The main contract positions of SHFE gold were 124540 lots, down 5806 lots; those of SHFE silver were 235542 lots, up 1957 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the SHFE gold main contract were 107081 lots, down 3280 lots; those of SHFE silver were 128005 lots, up 8146 lots [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 89616 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver was 583060 kilograms, down 8824 kilograms [3]. 现货市场 - **Spot Prices**: The SMM gold spot price was 943.9 yuan/gram, down 6.4 yuan; the SMM silver spot price was 11991 yuan/kilogram, up 88 yuan [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of the SHFE gold main contract was - 1.86 yuan/gram, down 3.28 yuan; the basis of the SHFE silver main contract was - 82 yuan/kilogram, down 105 yuan [3]. Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holdings were 1046.36 tons, up 4.3 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15088.63 tons, unchanged [3]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 266749 contracts, up 339 contracts; the silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 52276 contracts, up 738 contracts [3]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total quarterly supply and demand of gold were both 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons and 54.83 tons respectively. The total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces; the total global annual demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3]. Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 30.92%, up 0.08%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 27.03%, up 0.08% [3]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 24.6%, up 2.62%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 24.61%, up 2.65% [3]. Industry News - The U.S. Senate voted to pass the "Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act", taking a key step to end the government "shutdown". The bill will provide funds for the federal government until January 30 next year, revoke some lay - off measures during the "shutdown", and temporarily prevent further lay - offs. The U.S. House of Representatives plans to vote on the temporary appropriation bill passed by the Senate on Wednesday [3]. - The U.S. "small non - farm" data warned again. From the four - week period ending on October 25, the U.S. private sector reduced an average of 11250 jobs every two weeks, with a total reduction of 45000 jobs last month (excluding government employees), which is the largest monthly decline in employment since March 2023 [3]. - The optimism of U.S. small businesses dropped to a six - month low. The NFIB data showed that due to deteriorating profits, the optimism index of U.S. small businesses in October dropped 0.6 points to 98.2 [3].

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 34th day, nearing the record of 35 days, impacting various federal programs including the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) [2] - The Trump administration announced the use of emergency funds to ensure the distribution of half of the SNAP benefits for the month, although some states may take weeks or months to fully restore normal benefit distribution [2] - The SNAP program, which is overseen by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, has a monthly expenditure exceeding $8 billion and has not experienced a disruption in its 60-year history during government shutdowns until now [2] Group 2 - The U.S. government is actively seeking to strengthen domestic industries, with the Department of Commerce and the Pentagon announcing financing support for a domestic rare earth magnet manufacturer, Vulcan Elements [3] - A non-binding preliminary agreement has been signed to provide $50 million under the CHIPS Act for equipment procurement to produce permanent magnets essential for military and renewable energy applications [3] - Vulcan Elements is set to receive up to $620 million in direct loans from the Pentagon's Strategic Capital Office, along with an additional $550 million in private capital to build a magnet factory with an annual production capacity of 10,000 tons [3] Group 3 - Recent trading of London gold has shown volatility, with a high of $4,381 per ounce on October 20, followed by a rapid decline, and currently trading around $3,977.94 per ounce [3][4] - Key support for gold is identified at approximately $3,950, while resistance is noted at $4,030, which is the highest point reached on October 29 [4] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend on the daily chart, but there are signs of potential short-term rebounds, indicating that gold may trade within the $3,950 to $4,030 range in the near term [4]

Core Viewpoint - Since September, gold prices have surged significantly, approaching $4000 per ounce by October 7, 2023, driven by a combination of long-term trends, short-term factors, and market sentiment [3][4][17] Long-term Logic for Gold Price Increase - The long-term narrative supporting gold's price increase is centered around the restructuring of the global monetary credit system, with gold acting as a "safe haven" asset during challenges to the dollar's credibility [3][4] - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating, as more countries diversify their reserve assets, with gold becoming a key alternative, reflecting a shift from a purely dollar-based system to one resembling a "gold standard" [3][4] - Central banks globally are increasingly purchasing gold as a strategic move to stabilize economies during turbulent times, which has become a significant support for gold prices [3][4] Short-term Triggers for Gold Price Surge - The unexpected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September acted as a direct driver for gold prices, as lower interest rates typically boost gold's appeal [7][11] - Escalating geopolitical tensions and trade policy shifts have heightened market risk aversion, leading investors to seek refuge in gold [11][12] - The significant increase in gold ETF holdings, reaching 32.57 million ounces in September, indicates strong investor demand for gold amid rising risks [14][15] Future Outlook for Gold - The support system for gold remains robust, with long-term factors such as the restructuring of the global monetary system and ongoing central bank purchases likely to sustain a bullish trend for gold over the next 2-3 years [17] - Short-term dynamics, including the continuation of the Fed's easing cycle and persistent geopolitical risks, are expected to keep gold prices elevated and volatile [17]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has experienced a significant upward trend since 2025, with gold prices approaching $4000 per ounce, driven by long-term structural changes in the global monetary credit system [1][3]. Group 1: Recent Price Movements - Since September, gold prices have surged, reaching nearly $4000 per ounce by October 7, 2023 [2]. - The month of September saw a notable increase in gold prices, with an 11.6% rise in USD terms [3]. Group 2: Long-term Logic Behind Gold's Rise - The long-term support for gold's price increase is primarily linked to the restructuring of the global monetary credit system [4]. - Gold's unique attributes as both a commodity and a financial asset tie its price movements closely to macroeconomic conditions, monetary system evolution, and supply-demand dynamics [4]. Group 3: Factors Supporting Gold Demand - The acceleration of de-dollarization is undermining the credibility of the US dollar, prompting countries to diversify their reserve assets, with gold emerging as a key alternative [4]. - Central banks globally are increasingly purchasing gold as a strategic measure, viewing it as a means of value storage and a core resource for stabilizing economies during global turmoil [4]. - The ongoing adjustments in reserve structures are seen as a long-term trend within the broader context of monetary system restructuring, providing stable underlying support for gold demand [4]. Group 4: Risks to Monetary Credit - The accumulation of debt risks in the US is raising concerns about monetary credit, with the heavy interest burden on federal debt posing sustainability challenges [5]. - The rising risk of a debt crisis is eroding confidence in dollar-denominated assets, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Historical patterns indicate that when sovereign debt risks escalate and monetary credit is compromised, gold's long-term upward trend tends to strengthen [5].

Core Viewpoint - The current support system for the gold market remains solid, driven by long-term factors such as the restructuring of the global monetary credit system, de-dollarization trends, continuous gold purchases by central banks, and structural supply-demand imbalances, which are expected to sustain a long-term bullish trend for gold in the next 2-3 years [1][2]. Long-term Logic of Gold Price Increase - Gold's price trajectory is closely linked to global macroeconomic patterns, the evolution of the monetary system, and changes in supply-demand dynamics. The ongoing restructuring of the global monetary credit system is a key factor supporting gold's sustained rise [3]. - The acceleration of de-dollarization is undermining the credibility of the dollar, with many countries diversifying their reserve assets, making gold a significant alternative. Central banks view gold as a core resource for stabilizing economies during global turmoil, which has become a long-term trend in the restructuring of the monetary system [3][4]. - The accumulation of U.S. debt risks is heightening concerns over monetary credit, with rising debt crisis risks potentially leading to a loss of confidence in dollar assets, thereby reinforcing gold's appeal as a safe haven [4]. Short-term Trigger Factors for Gold Price Increase Since September - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to short-term events, particularly monetary policy adjustments and escalating geopolitical tensions [7]. - The Federal Reserve's unexpected interest rate cuts in September have been a significant driver for gold prices, as lower interest rates typically boost gold's attractiveness [8]. - Heightened geopolitical tensions and trade policy shifts have increased market risk aversion, leading investors to seek refuge in gold as a safe asset. The rise in the geopolitical risk index since mid-September reflects this trend [10]. - The substantial growth of gold ETFs, which reached 32.57 million ounces in September, indicates strong investor demand for gold amid rising risks, with North American funds contributing significantly to this inflow [12]. Additional Observations - There are speculations regarding central banks potentially increasing their gold purchases, which may have contributed to the recent price surge. However, evidence suggests that the primary upward momentum in gold prices is linked to U.S. trading hours and the Fed's policy adjustments rather than significant purchases by the Chinese central bank [13].

Long-term Logic - The long-term price trend of gold is closely linked to the global macroeconomic landscape, monetary system evolution, and supply-demand changes[4] - The trend of de-dollarization is undermining the dollar's credit foundation, leading to increased gold purchases by central banks as a strategic move[4] - The accumulation of U.S. debt risks is heightening concerns over monetary credit, reinforcing gold's safe-haven attributes[5] Short-term Triggers - In September, gold prices surged by 11.6%, driven by unexpected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which initiated a rate reduction of 25 basis points[3][9] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Eurasia, have escalated, increasing market risk aversion and driving demand for gold as a safe asset[11] - The scale of gold ETFs expanded significantly, reaching 32.57 million ounces in September, marking the second-highest monthly increase since July 2022[13] Future Outlook - The support system for gold remains robust, with long-term trends in the global monetary credit system and ongoing central bank purchases expected to sustain gold's bullish trend over the next 2-3 years[17] - Short-term factors, including continued monetary easing and persistent geopolitical risks, are likely to keep gold prices elevated and volatile[17]