来源：市场资讯 （来源：F金融） 事项：9月以来黄金价格大幅上涨，至北京时间10月7日晚间，伦敦现货黄金逼近4000美元/盎司。 2025年以来，国际黄金市场上演了一场波澜壮阔的上涨行情。国际现货黄金价格从年初约2650美元/盎司起步，一路突破多个整数关口，业已逼近4000美 元/ 盎司。其中，9月份的上涨尤为引人注目，美元计价下单月涨幅达11.6%。这轮上涨并非偶然，而是长期逻辑、短期因素与市场情绪共振的结果。本文 将从黄金上涨的长期逻辑、9月份以来的短期触发因素以及未来走势展望三个维度展开深入分析。 黄金上涨的长期逻辑：货币体系重构的长线叙事仍然有效 黄金作为兼具商品属性与金融属性的特殊资产，其长期价格走势始终与全球宏观经济格局、货币体系演变及供需结构变化紧密相连。当前支撑黄金持续上 涨的长期逻辑主要集中在全球货币信用体系重构层面。 黄金的核心金融属性在于其"天然货币"的特性，当全球货币信用体系面临挑战时，黄金往往成为市场的 "压舱石"。当前，这一逻辑正得到充分验证，主 要体现在两个方面： 一是去美元化趋势加速动摇美元信用根基。近年来，美元的结算与储备霸权持续削弱，越来越多的国家开始推进储备资产多元化，黄 ...

国信证券近日发布近期黄金大涨快评：2025年以来，国际黄金市场上演了一场波澜壮阔 的上涨行情。国际现货黄金价格从年初约2650美元/盎司起步，一路突破多个整数关口，业 已逼近4000美元/盎司。其中，9月份的上涨尤为引人注目，美元计价下单月涨幅达11.6%。 当前支撑黄金持续上涨的长期逻辑主要集中在全球货币信用体系重构层面。 以下为研究报告摘要： 事项： 9月以来黄金价格大幅上涨，至北京时间10月7日晚间，美元计价伦敦现货黄金逼近4000 美元/盎司。 黄金上涨的长期逻辑：货币体系重构的长线叙事仍然有效 黄金作为兼具商品属性与金融属性的特殊资产，其长期价格走势始终与全球宏观经济格 局、货币体系演变及供需结构变化紧密相连。当前支撑黄金持续上涨的长期逻辑主要集中在 全球货币信用体系重构层面。 黄金的核心金融属性在于其"天然货币"的特性，当全球货币信用体系面临挑战时，黄金 往往成为市场的"压舱石"。当前，这一逻辑正得到充分验证，主要体现在两个方面： 一是去美元化趋势加速动摇美元信用根基。近年来，美元的结算与储备霸权持续削弱， 越来越多的国家开始推进储备资产多元化，黄金成为重要的替代选择。在美国贸易保护主义 转向下， ...

智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，综合长期逻辑与短期因素，当前黄金市场的支撑体系依然稳固。长期而言，全球货币信用体系重构、去美元化 趋势、各国央行持续购金以及供需结构性失衡等因素构成了黄金上涨的核心支撑，这一支撑体系在未来2-3年内难以发生根本性改变，因此黄金的长期牛 市趋势仍将延续。短期来看，9月份以来的上涨动能虽有所释放，但美联储宽松周期的延续、地缘政治风险的常态化以及市场投资需求的持续流入，仍将 推动金价维持高位震荡偏强的格局。 事项： 9月以来黄金价格大幅上涨，至北京时间10月7日晚间，伦敦现货黄金逼近4000美元/盎司。 黄金作为兼具商品属性与金融属性的特殊资产，其长期价格走势始终与全球宏观经济格局、货币体系演变及供需结构变化紧密相连。当前支撑黄金持续上 涨的长期逻辑主要集中在全球货币信用体系重构层面。 黄金的核心金融属性在于其"天然货币"的特性，当全球货币信用体系面临挑战时，黄金往往成为市场的 "压舱石"。当前，这一逻辑正得到充分验证，主 要体现在两个方面： 国信证券主要观点如下： 2025年以来，国际黄金市场上演了一场波澜壮阔的上涨行情。国际现货黄金价格从年初约2650美元/盎司起步，一路 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月08日 一是去美元化趋势加速动摇美元信用根基。近年来，美元的结算与储备霸权持续削弱，越来越多的国家开 始推进储备资产多元化，黄金成为重要的替代选择。在美国贸易保护主义转向下，全球货币体系可能正在 经历一次深刻的"范式漂移"—从纯粹的信用美元体系，向某种具有"类金本位"特征的体系倾斜。多国 央行已将购入黄金作为战略举措，不仅将其视为价值储存的手段，更将其作为全球动荡时期稳定经济的核 心资源。世界黄金协会数据显示，全球央行的持续购金行为已成为支撑金价的重要力量，即便在利率政策 环境不及预期的情况下，这一支撑仍能有效发挥作用。这种储备结构的调整并非短期行为，而是全球货币 体系重构过程中的长期趋势，为黄金需求提供了稳定的底层支撑。 近期黄金大涨快评 黄金牛市：长期逻辑、短期触发与未来展望 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-819820 ...

Core Viewpoint - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, indicating a rapid increase in fiscal burden and potential for a vicious cycle of debt due to the recently enacted "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending legislation [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Debt Dynamics - The "Big and Beautiful" legislation marks a significant shift in U.S. fiscal policy, focusing on tax cuts, increased spending, and adjustments to the debt ceiling, which may stimulate short-term economic growth but poses long-term challenges such as uncontrolled debt and diminished dollar credibility [1][2] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the federal budget deficit will significantly increase over the next decade, potentially adding hundreds of billions to the deficit if certain tax cuts are extended beyond 2028 [1][2] Group 2: Tax Policy Implications - The permanence of existing tax cuts, such as maintaining the highest marginal personal income tax rate at 37% and accelerating depreciation for corporate investments, could lead to an increase in the deficit by hundreds of billions [2] - New temporary tax measures, including exemptions for tips and overtime pay from 2026 to 2028 and annual tax allowances for seniors, are expected to cumulatively add thousands of billions to the deficit over ten years [2] Group 3: Interest Payments and Sustainability Challenges - Current interest payments by the U.S. Treasury exceed $1 trillion, and if debt continues to grow, annual interest costs could increase by hundreds of billions to over a trillion by 2030, straining fiscal resources for essential services [2] Group 4: Historical Context and International Comparisons - Historical data shows that U.S. federal debt has increased from $10 trillion to $20 trillion post-2008 financial crisis, while economic growth has only risen by about 30%, indicating a concerning trend of debt growth outpacing economic potential [3] - International experience suggests that when debt-to-GDP ratios exceed 150%, repayment pressures intensify, and while the dollar's status as a reserve currency currently mitigates some risks, long-term fiscal sustainability is nearing a critical point [3] Group 5: De-dollarization Trends - The attractiveness of U.S. Treasury bonds is declining, leading to concerns about capital outflows as international investors shift towards higher-yield assets, with foreign ownership of U.S. debt dropping from 34% to 29% over the past decade [3][4] - Geopolitical tensions and energy policy shifts are accelerating global de-dollarization, with countries like Russia and China increasing local currency settlements in bilateral trade [4] Group 6: Economic and Social Implications - The expansionary fiscal policy may lead to higher inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, which could suppress investment and consumption, resulting in a "high debt—high interest—low growth" cycle [4] - Cuts to social welfare programs under the "Big and Beautiful" legislation may disproportionately affect low-income groups, exacerbating social inequalities and potentially leading to public discontent [5]

8月13日，国内贵金属期货涨跌不一，截止目前，沪金主力报价为776.70元/克，跌幅0.05%，沪银主力 报价为9276.00元/千克，涨幅1.17%；国际贵金属期全线飘红，COMEX黄金报价3402.40美元/盎司，涨 幅0.08%，COMEX白银报价38.33美元/盎司，涨幅1.03%。 今日贵金属期货价格行情（2025年8月13日） | 品种名称 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 777.28 | 777.82 | 773.80 | 元/克 | | 沪银主力 | 9182.00 | 9285.00 | 9135.00 | 元/千克 | | COMEX黄金 | 3399.60 | 3405.00 | 3392.70 | 美元/盎司 | | COMEX白银 | 37.94 | 38.34 | 37.88 | 美元/盎司 | 【消息面】 当地时间8月12日下午，由于美国联邦政府继续以创纪录的速度积累债务，美国国债总额首次超过37万 亿美元。美国联邦预算问责委员会主席表示，美国财政状况严重失衡，但国会却不断让情况恶 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of the Chinese yuan (RMB) against the backdrop of a complex international environment, highlighting the positive trends in China's economy and the implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies to maintain stability in the RMB exchange rate [1][5]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - In the first half of 2025, the RMB appreciated nearly 2% against the USD compared to the end of the previous year, while the USD index fell over 10%, marking its worst performance since 1973 [2]. - The RMB exchange rate showed strong resilience, with a 0.65% appreciation in the first quarter, supported by effective policy measures and a stable domestic economy [2][4]. - The second quarter saw the RMB experience fluctuations due to US-China trade tensions, with the exchange rate initially depreciating before recovering to below 7.2 [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - In the first five months of the year, fixed asset investment grew by 3.7%, retail sales increased by 5%, and exports rose by 7.2%, indicating a positive economic performance that supports the RMB [5]. - The international balance of payments remained stable, with a surplus of $101.9 billion in foreign exchange payments, reflecting foreign investors' confidence in RMB assets [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to experience fluctuations in the second half of the year, influenced by ongoing US-China trade negotiations and the potential for US economic weakening [5][6]. - The US economic slowdown and the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts are anticipated to exert downward pressure on the USD, contributing to a dual-directional fluctuation of the RMB [7][8]. - Geopolitical risks and uncertainties in international trade negotiations may lead to temporary shocks in the RMB exchange rate, necessitating close monitoring of the situation [9].

Macro News - The Trump administration has issued tariff letters to 14 countries, imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Japan and South Korea starting August 1, and a tariff ranging from 25% to 40% on Malaysia, South Africa, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Thailand. Additionally, countries aligning with anti-American policies of BRICS nations will face an extra 10% tariff, with the suspension period for reciprocal tariffs extended to August 1 [1] - The European Union claims good progress in trade negotiations with the U.S., with Portugal's finance minister suggesting a potential agreement on very low tariffs, possibly below 10% [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 95.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 4.7%. For September, the probability of maintaining rates is 35.3%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 61.8%. The market anticipates one rate cut each in September and December this year [1] Central Bank Gold Purchases - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves stood at 73.9 million ounces (approximately 2,298.55 tons), reflecting an increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) month-on-month, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [1] Institutional Perspectives - Following the resilience shown in non-farm payrolls, the temporary extension of the tariff suspension to August 1 alleviated market risk sentiment. However, the announcement of new tariff levels on countries including Japan and South Korea, combined with China's continued gold purchases, has led to a robust performance in the precious metals market, showing a V-shaped rebound after a decline. Overall, despite short-term market fluctuations, the substantial increase in U.S. tariffs suggests a baseline scenario of rising inflation and economic slowdown. Furthermore, with the advancement of the "Big and Beautiful" Act, the U.S. debt and deficit issues are likely to worsen, indicating that precious metals are expected to face upward pressure [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill signed by President Trump is expected to significantly increase the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt risk, raising concerns about the long-term financial stability of the country [1][2]. Group 1: Legislative Overview - The "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed by the U.S. House of Representatives with a vote of 218 in favor and 214 against, following its approval in the Senate [1]. - The bill extends tax cuts for corporations and individuals initially implemented in 2017, including provisions to exempt tips and overtime pay from taxation [1]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Preliminary analysis indicates that the bill could increase the U.S. deficit by approximately $3.3 trillion over the next decade and reduce tax revenue for decades to come [1]. - The U.S. national debt currently stands at $36.2 trillion, and the bill is expected to exacerbate the structural deficit, making it more challenging for lawmakers to manage debt levels [2]. Group 3: Economic Concerns - The bill has been criticized for potentially leading to cuts in federal assistance and increasing long-term debt, particularly benefiting wealthy individuals and large corporations [1]. - The growing debt burden is projected to have negative implications for future generations, as highlighted by experts [2].

Group 1 - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasizes the need for bipartisan cooperation to reduce the fiscal deficit, which would improve the supply-demand balance of U.S. debt and lower interest rates [1] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Senate version of the Trump tax reform and spending bill could increase the U.S. deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion over the next decade if passed [1] - BlackRock warns that rising U.S. government debt may diminish investor interest in long-term U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, citing concerns over the stability of the dollar as a reserve currency [1] Group 2 - BlackRock indicates that higher government debt could disrupt the typical correlation between long-term U.S. Treasury yields and U.S. monetary policy, potentially leading to rising yields even if the Federal Reserve cuts rates [2] - The increase in U.S. debt supply may face reduced demand from the Federal Reserve and foreign central banks [2]