Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent sharp decline in gold prices is primarily due to two factors: the significant increase in gold prices during the U.S. government shutdown and the easing of geopolitical tensions, which has reduced market risk aversion [1][2] - Gold prices fell below $4000 per ounce for the first time in nearly 10 trading days, marking a decline of over 3% for the second time since October 21 [1] - The cumulative increase in gold prices reached 12.69% during the U.S. government shutdown, which is significantly higher than historical norms, leading to profit-taking by some investors [1] Group 2 - Despite the recent decline, the bullish outlook for gold is not over, as challenges related to the U.S. government shutdown and high federal debt levels continue to pose risks [2] - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to a five-month low in October, indicating potential economic concerns, while expectations for interest rate cuts are increasing due to the liquidity crisis [2] - Short-term focus should be on the $4000 per ounce support level for gold, while the broader economic factors include trade developments and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions at the end of the month [2]

本文黄金、白银等产品行情分析，以国际报价为基准；今日换算系数，国际金价/4.368≈国内金价。 受中美和谈影响，昨天黄金低开低走，盘中虽然说一度反弹，但是最终也没能够再让4100美元关口。欧洲盘时段震荡向下破位4040-50区域，美盘时段向下 发力跌破4000美元大关；最低至3971线之后反弹，日线以大阴线收盘。国内沪金，上海金也跌了20多块，自历史高点目前下跌接近100元！ 我们强调了，目前黄金属于超级大扫荡。本周消息也比较多，各大央行将公布利率协议，并且中美贸易谈判以及美国总统特朗普出访亚洲国家，这对局势都 有一定的影响。所以说，操作上高空为主；但不要过分地追空，在关键位置出击，带好止损。今天早盘3970-4020一波扫荡后，还要折腾，冲高做空为主， 3970-75下破前短线可做反弹！ 上周五美国CPI数据全线低于预期，加强了10月份降息的概率，10月份降息目前是板上钉钉；但是黄金也只是仅仅反弹了一下，当前市场上中美和谈是属于 比较大的利空，同时菲律宾央行抛售黄金也是构成一定的利空。 国际白银，昨天和黄金一起暴跌，逼近中期支撑45-46区域，抵达区间后着手买多，以下45-44.5作为风控。但，短期而言，依 ...

Group 1 - The international gold price significantly declined on Monday, dropping below the $4000 per ounce mark during trading, with the December gold futures closing at $4019.7 per ounce, a decrease of 2.85% [1][4] - Investors are closely monitoring the latest developments in trade negotiations between the US and multiple countries, which have shown some progress, boosting market risk appetite [1][4] - The US inflation data released last Friday reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will announce another interest rate cut this week, contributing to the rise in US stock indices, which all reached historical highs [1][4] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index saw gains across its eleven sectors, with the communication services and technology sectors leading the way [1] - Notable increases in stock prices were observed for major tech companies, including Nvidia (up over 2.8%), Tesla (up over 4%), and Apple (up over 2%), with Apple's market capitalization nearing $4 trillion [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index also rose approximately 1.6%, indicating a positive trend for Chinese stocks listed in the US [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term trend of precious metals is rated as "oscillating weakly", and the long - term trend remains bullish [1][3] Core Viewpoints - Trade frictions ease, leading to a decline in safe - haven demand and a short - term weakening of precious metal prices. However, the expectation of interest rate cuts still provides support, and trading within the range with strict risk control is recommended [1] - The precious metals have entered a phased adjustment, but the long - term bullish trend remains unchanged due to factors such as debt over - issuance and the decline of the US dollar's credit [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - The US and China reached a "substantive framework" in Kuala Lumpur, and the threat of 100% tariffs on China was lifted; the assessment of rare - earth related controls was postponed [2] - The US CPI in September was lower than expected, leading the market to price in further interest rate cuts this week and this year [2] - Due to the government shutdown, the release of inflation data in October may be delayed, increasing the market's bet on interest rate cuts and the halt of balance - sheet reduction [2] - The US fiscal deficit in Q3 reached $1.55 trillion, a year - on - year increase of about 40%, driving the market's bet on long - term monetary easing [2] - The ECB may consider reducing the emergency bond - buying program this year if external shocks are controllable [2] - Global central banks net - purchased about 38 tons of gold in September, with the People's Bank of China increasing its holdings for the 23rd consecutive month [2] - The Philippine central bank is considering selling part of its "excessive" gold reserves as the demand for safe - haven weakens [2] Price Logic - Gold has started a phased adjustment, with short - term prices being suppressed by the easing of trade tensions. The focus in Q4 is on the December window period. In the long run, gold remains a core asset to hedge against the risk of the US dollar's credit decline [3] - Silver's short - term price movement is in line with that of gold, also entering a phased adjustment. The short - term price is affected by policies and risk sentiment, and the long - term price center will rise with gold [3][6] Outlook - This week, attention should be paid to the signals of the FOMC's interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction, as well as the details of trade negotiations. The weekly price range for London gold is [3950 - 4200], and for London silver is [46 - 52] [6]

周一（10月27日），美股三大指数集体上涨，且均收于历史新高。 截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.71%，报47544.59点；标普500指数涨1.23%，报6875.16点；纳斯达克综合指数涨1.86%，报23637.46点， 均刷新了上周五录得的历史纪录。 | 名家 | | 局新价 | THE DE PIC | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道現斯指数 | 0 | 47544.59 | +337.47 | 0.71% | | 标普500指数 | | 6875.16 | +83.47 | 1.23% | | 纳斯达靠综合指数 | | 23637.46 | +432.59 | 1.86% | 与此同时，小盘股罗素2000指数涨0.28%，突破了10月15日的高位。有"恐慌指数"之称的标普500波动率指数（VIX）跌破16，最低时报 15.62，为9月29日以来的最低水平。 据央视新闻，上周末，中美经贸中 方牵头人、国务院副 总理 何立 峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔在马来西亚吉 隆坡举行中美经贸磋商。 双方进行了坦诚、深入、富有建设性的交流磋商，就解决各自 ...

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices opened higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.56%, S&P 500 up 0.86%, and Nasdaq up 1.38%, all reaching new historical highs [1] - Major tech stocks saw significant gains, with Nvidia, Google A, and Tesla rising over 2%, while Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom, and Apple increased by more than 1% [2] - Most large bank stocks also rose, with Barclays up over 2%, and Citigroup, UBS, and Morgan Stanley up over 1% [3] Economic Indicators - The upcoming "Super Central Bank Week" is anticipated, with the Federal Reserve's meeting scheduled for October 28-29, where a 25 basis point rate cut to the 3.75%-4% range is widely expected [3] - According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point cut in October is 98.3%, while the chance of maintaining the current rate is only 1.7% [3] Chinese Market Insights - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index surged over 2% in early trading [3] - Popular Chinese stocks mostly rose, with Baidu up over 5%, Vipshop up over 4%, and NIO, Xpeng, and JD.com up over 3% [6] Currency and Commodity Trends - The offshore RMB strengthened, rising over 200 basis points against the US dollar [8] - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, with London gold and COMEX gold both falling nearly 3%, and London gold dropping below $4000 per ounce [9] - Capital Economics has revised down its gold price forecast, expecting it to fall to $3500 per ounce by the end of 2026 [10] - However, Fidelity International remains bullish on gold, citing factors like Fed rate cuts and geopolitical risks as supportive for gold's performance [11]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market indices opened higher on October 27, with the Dow Jones up 0.56%, S&P 500 up 0.86%, and Nasdaq up 1.38%, all reaching new historical highs [2][3] - Major tech stocks saw significant gains, with Nvidia, Google A, and Tesla rising over 2%, while Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom, and Apple increased by more than 1% [3] - Most large bank stocks also rose, with Barclays up over 2%, and Citigroup, UBS, and Morgan Stanley up over 1% [4] Federal Reserve Meeting - The upcoming "Super Central Bank Week" is anticipated, with the Federal Reserve's meeting scheduled for October 28-29, where a rate cut of 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4% range is widely expected [4] - According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point cut in October is 98.3%, while the chance of maintaining the current rate is only 1.7% [4] Chinese Stocks Performance - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index saw a significant rise, increasing over 2% during the morning session [4] - Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with Baidu up over 5%, Vipshop up over 4%, and Xpeng, NIO, and JD.com up over 3% [7] U.S.-China Relations - Recent communications between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and U.S. Secretary of State Rubio emphasized the importance of a stable U.S.-China relationship for global stability [8][9] - Both sides reached a basic consensus on addressing urgent economic and trade issues during recent talks in Kuala Lumpur, focusing on maritime logistics, tariffs, and agricultural trade [9] Currency and Commodity Markets - The offshore RMB strengthened, rising over 200 basis points against the U.S. dollar [10] - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, with London gold and COMEX gold both falling nearly 3%, with London gold dropping below $4000 per ounce [11] - Forecasts for gold prices have been adjusted, with expectations of a decline to $3500 per ounce by the end of 2026, although some institutions remain bullish on gold due to potential inflows amid geopolitical risks and Fed rate cuts [13]

Core Viewpoint - Barclays economists report that the Bank of Thailand may require evidence of worsening growth before considering further interest rate cuts, while also highlighting emerging concerns about deflation risks [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Monetary Policy - The latest minutes from the Bank of Thailand's monetary policy committee indicate that policymakers believe further rate cuts should be contingent on actual evidence of deteriorating growth [1] - The committee has begun to pay attention to deflation risks, a topic that was not previously mentioned in recent policy meetings [1] Committee Insights - Barclays notes that among the two members who supported a rate cut in the October meeting, at least one advocated for further easing based on concerns about deflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent U.S. CPI inflation data for September, which was lower than market expectations, indicating a lack of immediate inflation concerns and suggesting a smooth path for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][6][15]. Group 1: Inflation Data Analysis - The U.S. CPI year-on-year growth rate increased to 3.0%, while the month-on-month growth was 0.3%, both below market expectations [1]. - Core CPI year-on-year growth slowed to 3.0%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, also underperforming market forecasts [1]. - Strong inflation components are seen as temporary, while weak components appear more sustainable, indicating limited risk of a significant inflation rebound in the short term [6][15]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Inflation - Oil prices and tariffs are expected to push inflation higher in the short term, but international oil prices are not trending upward, and the impact of tariffs is diminishing [4]. - The automotive and housing markets are contributing to lower inflation, with indicators showing both sectors are weakening, which may lead to further softening of related inflation components [4][10]. - Employment remains under pressure, and the wage-price spiral does not support a rebound in inflation [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in both October and December, bringing the policy rate down to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% by year-end [4][15]. - The market has already priced in the rate cut expectations, leading to potential rebound risks for U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar [5][16]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Strategies - The article notes that the U.S. dollar overnight interest rate curve indicates a strong likelihood of rate cuts, with the 10-year Treasury yield remaining stable around 4.00% [16]. - The stock market has responded positively, with major indices reaching historical highs, reflecting investor confidence amid the anticipated rate cuts [16]. - A cautious approach to "rate cut trades" is advised, as the market may have fully priced in the rate cut expectations, limiting further declines in Treasury yields [5][17].

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold is currently experiencing a downward trend, with signs of deterioration in its price pattern due to potential concessions from the U.S. on tariff issues, which may reduce safe-haven demand [1] - Recent statements from U.S. Treasury Secretary indicate optimism regarding U.S.-China negotiations, suggesting that the imposition of new tariffs may be reconsidered, which could further impact gold prices negatively [1] - Technical analysis shows that gold prices are facing resistance around $4095, with a likelihood of further declines in the short term [1] Group 2: Oil Market - India's cessation of Russian oil purchases may lead to increased buying from other oil-producing countries, providing weak support for oil prices [2] - Reliance Industries, India's largest private refiner, has stopped purchasing approximately 629,590 barrels of Russian oil daily, indicating a shift in sourcing for crude oil imports [2] - The halt in Russian oil purchases could disrupt the supply chain for Europe, which may need to seek alternative energy imports [2] Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - The focus of global financial markets is on the Federal Reserve and other central banks, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in December due to recent inflation data [3] - The latest CPI data shows U.S. core inflation at 3%, with a slowdown in growth, creating conditions favorable for a rate cut [3] - The dollar index is showing weak upward momentum, with significant resistance from long-term moving averages [3] Group 4: Market Events and Data - California Governor Newsom has officially acknowledged his presidential campaign intentions [5] - U.S. Treasury Secretary has confirmed that the U.S. is no longer considering imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, indicating a significant development in trade relations [5] - Scope Ratings has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating to AA- [5]