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金属期权策略早报-20250725
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 01:25
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides strategies for different metal options, including constructing seller neutral volatility strategies for non - ferrous metals with a fluctuating and strengthening trend, building bullish option bull spread combinations for the rapidly rising black series, and creating spot hedging strategies for precious metals like gold which is in a high - level consolidation and bullish state [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various metal futures are presented, such as copper's latest price of 79,290 with a - 0.69% change, and lithium carbonate's price increase of 7.21% to 76,680 [3] 2. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different metal options are shown, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For example, copper's volume PCR is 0.38 with a 0.05 change, and open interest PCR is 0.68 with a 0.01 change [4] 3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different metal options are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, copper's pressure point is 82,000 and support point is 75,000 [5] 4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different metal options is provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, copper's at - the - money implied volatility is 12.96%, and the difference between implied and historical volatility is - 2.81 [6] 5. Strategies and Recommendations for Different Metals Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Based on fundamentals, market trends, and option factors, it is recommended to construct a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [7] - **Aluminum/Alumina**: Strategies include a bullish option bull spread combination, a short - volatility option combination, and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Zinc/Lead**: Similar to aluminum, it involves a bullish option bull spread combination, a short - volatility option combination, and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Nickel**: A short - volatility option combination with a short delta and a spot long - hedging strategy are suggested [10] - **Tin**: A short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy are recommended [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: A bullish option bull spread combination, a short - volatility option combination with a long delta, and a spot long - hedging strategy are proposed [11] Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: For gold, a short - volatility option seller portfolio strategy and a spot hedging strategy are recommended. For silver, based on its market conditions, corresponding option strategies are also provided [12] Black Series - **Rebar**: A bullish option bull spread combination, a short - volatility option combination with a long delta, and a spot long - covered call strategy are recommended [13] - **Iron Ore**: A bullish option bull spread combination, a short - volatility option combination with a long delta, and a spot long - collar strategy are suggested [14] - **Ferroalloys**: A bullish option bull spread combination and a short - volatility strategy are recommended for manganese silicon, and corresponding strategies are also provided for industrial silicon and polysilicon [15] - **Glass**: A bullish option bull spread combination, a short - volatility option combination, and a spot long - collar strategy are recommended [16] 6. Metal Option Charts - Charts for different metal options are provided, including price trends, option volume and open interest, option volume and open interest PCR, implied volatility, historical volatility cones, and pressure and support levels, which visually present the market conditions of various metal options [18][38][57]
农产品期权策略早报-20250725
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 01:15
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector includes beans, oils, agricultural by - products, soft commodities, grains, and others. The market trends vary among different product categories. For example, oilseeds and oils show a strong and volatile trend, while grains like corn and starch are in a weak and narrow - range consolidation. [2][8] - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns. [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures have different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For instance, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2509) is 4,221, with an increase of 15 and a rise - fall rate of 0.36%, and the trading volume is 124,500 lots with a decrease of 14,600 lots. [3] 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open - interest PCR of various agricultural product options are different, which can be used to analyze the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 option is 0.35, and the open - interest PCR is 0.46. [4] 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the maximum open - interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of different agricultural product options are determined. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4300, and the support level is 4100. [5] 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different agricultural product options has different characteristics, including the average implied volatility at the money, weighted implied volatility, and its changes. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 10.36%, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.62% with a decrease of 0.67%. [6] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: The USDA July report adjusted the supply - demand balance of US soybeans. The soybean No.1 market showed a rebound after a sharp decline. It is recommended to construct a neutral selling call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging. [7] - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The purchase volume of soybean meal in different months is different. The market shows a rebound after a weak consolidation. Similar to soybean No.1, a neutral selling option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended. [9] - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The MPOB June report shows the supply - demand situation of palm oil. The palm oil market is in a bullish trend. A bullish selling call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended. [10] - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is in a weak consolidation under the bearish pressure line. A bearish spread strategy of put options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended. [11] 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pigs**: The pig market is in a weak trend after a rebound. A bearish selling option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot are recommended. [11] - **Eggs**: The egg market is in a weak downward trend. A bearish spread strategy of put options and a bearish selling option combination strategy are recommended. [12] - **Apples**: The apple market shows a weak rebound. A neutral selling option combination strategy is recommended. [12] - **Red Dates**: The red date market shows a rebound and then a decline. A bearish wide - straddle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging are recommended. [13] 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: The sugar market shows a rebound after a sharp decline. A neutral selling option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended. [13] - **Cotton**: The cotton market shows a rebound at a low level. A bullish spread strategy of call options, a bullish selling option combination strategy, and a covered call strategy for spot are recommended. [14] 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn and Starch**: The corn market is in a weak downward trend. A bearish spread strategy of put options and a bearish selling option combination strategy are recommended. [14]
金属期权策略早报-20250724
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 01:41
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a metal options strategy morning report dated July 24, 2025, covering有色金属, precious metals, and black metals [1][2] - The overall strategy suggestions are to construct a seller neutral volatility strategy for non - ferrous metals, a bull call spread strategy for black metals, and a spot hedging strategy for precious metals [2] Group 2: Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts are presented, such as copper (CU2509) at 79,680 with a - 0.16% change, and aluminum (AL2509) at 20,750 with a - 0.46% change [3] Group 3: Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume and open interest PCR data for different metal options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [4] Group 4: Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels for various metal options are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [5] Group 5: Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data for different metal options are given, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility [6] Group 6: Option Strategies for Different Metals Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Suggest constructing a short - volatility seller option portfolio and a spot hedging strategy [7] - **Aluminum/Alumina**: Recommend a bull call spread strategy and a short - option combination strategy, as well as a spot collar strategy [9] - **Zinc/Lead**: Propose a bull call spread strategy, a short - option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Nickel**: Suggest a short - option combination strategy with a short delta and a spot long - position hedging strategy [10] - **Tin**: Recommend a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Propose a short - option combination strategy with a long delta and a spot long - position hedging strategy [11] Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Suggest a short - volatility option seller combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy [12] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Recommend a bull call spread strategy, a short - option combination strategy, and a spot long - position covered call strategy [13] - **Iron Ore**: Propose a bull call spread strategy, a short - option combination strategy, and a spot long - position collar strategy [14] - **Ferroalloys**: Recommend a bull call spread strategy and a short - volatility strategy [15] - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: Propose a bull call spread strategy, a short - option combination strategy, and a spot long - position hedging strategy [15] - **Glass**: Recommend a bull call spread strategy, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot long - position collar strategy [16] Group 7: Metal Option Charts - Charts for various metal options are provided, including price trend charts, volume and open interest charts, PCR charts, implied volatility charts, historical volatility cone charts, and pressure and support level charts [18][38][57]
能源化工期权策略早报-20250724
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 01:25
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on energy - chemical options, covering various categories such as energy, polyolefins, polyesters, and alkali chemicals. It analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and option factors of different underlying assets and provides corresponding option strategies and suggestions [3][8][9]. - The overall strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of 17 energy - chemical futures contracts, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2509) is 506, with a price increase of 2 and a growth rate of 0.42% [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume - to - Open - Interest Ratio (PCR)**: It shows the volume and open - interest PCR of different option varieties. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.48, with a change of - 0.05, and the open - interest PCR is 0.53, with a change of - 0.02 [5]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: The report identifies the pressure and support levels of different option underlying assets. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 640, and the support level is 500 [6]. - **Implied Volatility**: It provides the implied volatility data of different option varieties, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 29.785%, and the weighted implied volatility is 33.57%, with a change of 0.94% [7]. 3.3 Strategies and Suggestions - **Energy - related Options (Crude Oil and LPG)**: - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ will increase oil supply in August. The market shows a short - term weak trend. Option strategies include constructing a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long - spot collar strategy [8]. - **LPG**: The market is short - term bearish. Strategies involve constructing a bearish short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long - spot collar strategy [9]. - **Alcohol - related Options (Methanol and Ethylene Glycol)**: - **Methanol**: The market shows a weak rebound with resistance. Strategies include constructing a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long - spot collar strategy [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market shows a weak and narrow - range volatile pattern. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a long - spot collar strategy [11]. - **Polyolefin - related Options (Polypropylene, Polyvinyl Chloride, etc.)**: - **Polypropylene**: The market is weak with resistance. Strategies include a long - spot collar strategy using a long - spot position, a long - put option, and a short - call option [11]. - **Rubber - related Options**: - **Rubber**: The market shows a low - level consolidation pattern. Strategies include constructing a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy [12]. - **Polyester - related Options (P - Xylene, PTA, etc.)**: - **PTA**: The market is weak with resistance. Strategies include constructing a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy [13]. - **Alkali - related Options (Caustic Soda, Soda Ash, etc.)**: - **Caustic Soda**: The market shows a short - term bullish trend. Strategies include a long - spot collar strategy [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The market shows a bullish upward trend. Strategies include constructing a bull - spread call option combination strategy and a long - spot collar strategy [14]. - **Urea Options**: - The market shows a volatile pattern under bearish pressure. Strategies include constructing a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long - spot collar strategy [15].
隐含波动率处于低位
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-07-23 22:57
Market Overview - On July 23, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets experienced a slight pullback after an initial rise, with a total trading volume of 1.8645 trillion yuan. The four major indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai 50 Index up by 0.32% and the CSI 300 Index up by 0.02%, while the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index fell by 0.27% and 0.45% respectively [1]. Options Market Activity - The options market saw increased trading activity, with a continued rise in open interest. Specific trading volumes included 2,055,628 contracts for the Shanghai 50 ETF options, 2,037,994 contracts for the CSI 300 ETF options, and 1,811,686 contracts for the CSI 500 ETF options, among others. The total trading volume for various options reached significant amounts, with the CSI 1000 index options having a trading volume of 225,207 contracts and a total transaction value of 2.58 billion yuan [2]. Implied Volatility - There was a slight rebound in implied volatility across various options, although it remained at relatively low levels, indicating cautious market sentiment. The weighted implied volatility for the Shanghai 50 ETF options was recorded at 0.1578, while the CSI 300 ETF options had a volatility of 0.1455. The highest implied volatility was noted for the Huaxia Sci-Tech 50 ETF options at 0.2578 [3]. Market Sentiment and Strategy - Following positive news, the stock markets had seen significant gains recently, but on July 23, the upward momentum appeared to weaken. The options market remained active with increasing open interest. The current low implied volatility suggests a decline in the cost-effectiveness for sellers, prompting a need for tail risk management. Investors with a bullish outlook are advised to consider buying strategies, while those holding stocks may benefit from rolling out-of-the-money call options to enhance returns [4].
波动率数据日报-20250723
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 09:01
Group 1: Implied Volatility Index and Historical Volatility - Financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the implied volatilities of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility: a larger difference indicates that the implied volatility is relatively higher than historical volatility, and a smaller difference indicates the opposite [3] Group 2: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Charts - There are multiple charts showing the implied volatility (IV), historical volatility (HV), and the difference between them (IV - HV) for various options, including 300股指, 50ETF, 1000股指, 500ETF, etc. [4] Group 3: Implied Volatility and Volatility Spread Quantiles - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current implied volatility level of a variety in history. A high quantile means high current implied volatility, and a low quantile means low implied volatility [21] - The volatility spread is the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility [21] - The implied volatility quantile rankings for different varieties are presented, such as PTA with a quantile of 0.92, PVC with 0.85, etc. [22]
能源化工期权策略早报-20250723
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 00:58
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, etc. For each sub - sector, the report analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, option factors, and provides corresponding option strategies and suggestions [3][9] - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical futures contracts such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2509) is 504, down 3 with a decline of 0.55%, and its trading volume is 14.38 million lots, a decrease of 0.66 million lots [4] 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR - The volume - to - open - interest PCR data of different energy - chemical options are provided, including volume PCR and open - interest PCR and their changes. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.53, an increase of 0.04, and the open - interest PCR is 0.56, a decrease of 0.05 [5] 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various option underlying assets are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 640 and the support level is 500 [6] 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different energy - chemical options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 28.55%, and the weighted implied volatility is 32.63%, an increase of 1.51% [7] 3.3 Strategies and Suggestions 3.3.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil Options**: The OPEC + will increase oil supply by 550,000 barrels per day in August. The crude oil market is short - term weak. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - **LPG Options**: The LPG futures are in a short - term bearish market. It is recommended to construct a bearish short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.3.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol Options**: The methanol market shows a weak rebound. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Ethylene Glycol Options**: The ethylene glycol market is in a narrow - range, weak - bullish oscillation. It is recommended to construct a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.3.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene Options**: The polypropylene market is weak. It is recommended to use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.3.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber Options**: The rubber market shows a low - level consolidation. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy [12] 3.3.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA Options**: The PTA market is weak. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy [13] 3.3.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda Options**: The caustic soda market is bullish. It is recommended to use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] - **Soda Ash Options**: The soda ash market is bullish. It is recommended to construct a bull - spread call option strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] 3.3.7 Urea Options - The urea market oscillates under bearish pressure. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15]
欧元/美元风险逆转指标显示看涨倾向
news flash· 2025-07-22 08:46
金十数据7月22日讯,据外媒分析报道,欧元/美元的风险逆转指标正在重新获得看涨头寸的溢价,显示 出外汇期权市场的多头倾向正在回暖。在4月2日关税公告后,市场情绪大幅倾向欧元看涨,推动风险逆 转指标升至五年来高点。但随着欧元/美元现汇涨势在1.1830附近受阻,加之头寸过于拥挤,该指标开 始回落。美元随后反弹,使3个月以内的风险逆转指标短暂转为看跌,即看跌期权溢价高于看涨期权, 但这一走势未能持续。目前,3个月以内的欧元/美元风险逆转指标已回升至三周以来的最高水平。25 Delta欧元看涨期权的隐含波动率比同等看跌期权高出约0.4个波动率点。这表明交易员重新看好欧元/美 元的上行潜力,尽管信心仍显谨慎。 欧元/美元风险逆转指标显示看涨倾向 ...
能源化工期权策略早报-20250722
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 05:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, etc. [9] - For each sub - sector, options strategies are formulated based on fundamental analysis, market trend analysis, and option factor research of underlying assets [9] - The overall strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical futures contracts are presented, such as the latest price of crude oil SC2509 is 509, down 6 with a decline of 1.20% [4] 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR - The volume - to - open - interest PCR of various energy - chemical options is provided, which reflects the strength of the underlying asset's market and the turning point of the market trend. For example, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.49, with a change of - 0.00 [5] 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various energy - chemical options are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil options is 640, and the support level is 500 [6] 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of various energy - chemical options is presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 27, and the weighted implied volatility is 31.12 [7] 3.3 Strategies and Recommendations 3.3.1 Energy - related Options (Crude Oil, LPG) - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + increases supply, and the US supply rebounds with oil prices. The short - term market is weak. Implied volatility fluctuates around the average, and the short - selling power increases. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - **LPG**: The futures price is weak, and the demand side has potential risks. The short - term market is bearish. Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, and the short - selling power increases. Strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option selling combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.3.2 Alcohol - related Options (Methanol, Ethylene Glycol) - **Methanol**: Port inventory increases, and the market shows a weak rebound. Implied volatility is below the historical average, and the market is in a weak shock. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory decreases in the short term, and the market shows a narrow - range shock. Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, and the market is in a shock. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.3.3 Polyolefin - related Options (Polypropylene, PVC, Plastic, Styrene) - **Polypropylene**: The inventory of traders decreases, and the market is weak. Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, and the market weakens. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.3.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: The production of synthetic rubber and butadiene rubber increases. The market shows a low - level consolidation. Implied volatility fluctuates around the average, and the short - selling power increases. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination [12] 3.3.5 Polyester - related Options (PX, PTA, Short - fiber, Bottle - chip) - **PTA**: The load is stable, and the market is weak. Implied volatility fluctuates around the average, and the market weakens. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination [12] 3.3.6 Alkali - related Options (Caustic Soda, Soda Ash) - **Caustic Soda**: The average utilization rate of production capacity decreases slightly, and the market shows a short - term upward trend. Implied volatility fluctuates around the average. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] - **Soda Ash**: The inventory is at a historical high, and the market shows a short - term upward trend. Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, and the market is in a weak shock. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] 3.3.7 Urea Options - The port inventory increases, and the market shows a shock under bearish pressure. Implied volatility fluctuates slightly below the historical average, and the market weakens. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]
金属期权策略早报-20250722
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 04:58
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, which are experiencing a fluctuating decline, it is recommended to construct a seller neutral volatility strategy [2]. - For the black - series, which are gradually consolidating in a range, a seller option neutral portfolio strategy is suitable [2]. - For precious metals, specifically gold, which is consolidating at a high level and showing a weak decline, a spot hedging strategy is proposed [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Copper (CU2509) is priced at 79,770, up 510 (0.64%) with a trading volume of 8.75 million lots (up 3.27 million) and an open interest of 15.69 million lots (up 1.52 million) [3]. - Aluminum (AL2509) is at 20,860, up 115 (0.55%), volume 22.07 million lots (up 9.16 million), open interest 31.69 million lots (up 3.43 million) [3]. - Zinc (ZN2509) is at 22,875, up 90 (0.39%), volume 25.14 million lots (up 10.03 million), open interest 13.33 million lots (up 1.73 million) [3]. - And so on for other metals including lead, nickel, tin, etc. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - For copper, the volume PCR is 0.30 (down 0.24), and the open interest PCR is 0.65 (up 0.05) [4]. - For aluminum, the volume PCR is 0.49 (down 0.21), and the open interest PCR is 0.89 (down 0.04) [4]. - Similar data is provided for other metals such as zinc, lead, etc. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - For copper, the pressure level is 82,000 and the support level is 78,000 [5]. - For aluminum, the pressure level is 20,600 and the support level is 20,000 [5]. - For other metals like zinc, lead, etc., their respective pressure and support levels are also given. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - For copper, the at - the - money implied volatility is 13.25%, the weighted implied volatility is 17.34% (up 2.66%), and the difference between implied and historical volatility is - 1.57% [6]. - For aluminum, the at - the - money implied volatility is 11.32%, the weighted implied volatility is 14.28% (up 2.05%), and the difference between implied and historical volatility is 0.57% [6]. - Similar implied volatility data is presented for other metals. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations for Different Metals 3.5.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper Option**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility seller option portfolio; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold spot long + buy put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [8]. - **Aluminum/Alumina Option**: Directional strategy: Bull spread call option strategy; Volatility strategy: Sell a combination of call and put options with a long - biased position; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc/Lead Option**: Directional strategy: Bull spread call option strategy; Volatility strategy: Sell a combination of call and put options with a long - biased position; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel Option**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Sell a combination of call and put options with a short - biased position; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold spot long + buy put option [10]. - **Tin Option**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Short - volatility strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium Option**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Sell a combination of call and put options with a long - biased position; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold spot long + buy put option + sell call option [12]. 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver Option**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral short - volatility option seller portfolio; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold spot long + buy put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [13]. 3.5.3 Black - series - **Rebar Option**: Directional strategy: Construct a bull spread call option strategy; Volatility strategy: Sell a combination of call and put options with a long - biased position; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold spot long + sell call option [14]. - **Iron Ore Option**: Directional strategy: Bull spread call option strategy; Volatility strategy: Sell a combination of call and put options with a long - biased position; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [14]. - **Ferroalloy Option**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Short - volatility strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: None [15]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Option**: Directional strategy: Construct a bull spread call option strategy; Volatility strategy: Sell a combination of call and put options with a long - biased position; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold spot long + buy put option + sell call option [15]. - **Glass Option**: Directional strategy: Bull spread call option strategy; Volatility strategy: Short - volatility strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [16].