Core Viewpoint - The domestic and international precious metal futures have experienced a significant decline on May 15, 2025, with both gold and silver prices dropping across the board [1][2]. Price Movements - Domestic gold futures (沪金) closed at 739.82 CNY per gram, down 3.20% from the previous day, while domestic silver futures (沪银) closed at 8008.00 CNY per kilogram, down 2.34% [1]. - International gold futures (COMEX) were priced at 3151.80 USD per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.91%, and international silver futures (COMEX) were at 32.04 USD per ounce, down 1.08% [1]. Market Analysis - On May 14, COMEX gold showed a downward trend, closing at 3180.7 USD per ounce, with a decline of 2.07% [4]. - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is at 91.7%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is at 8.3% [4].

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a slight decline in prices due to a combination of macroeconomic factors, supply constraints, and fluctuating demand from various industries [1] Macroeconomic Factors - Progress in US-China tariff negotiations has reduced market risk aversion, with only 26% of fund managers believing in a hard landing, down from 49% in April [1] Supply Dynamics - There is a tight supply of copper concentrate, with limited short-term increases in global supply despite advancements in technology and exploration capabilities [1] - The competition among smelters is intensifying, leading to downward pressure on processing fees for imported ore and squeezing profits [1] Demand Trends - SMM forecasts a decrease in the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises to 71.01% in May, down 2.83 percentage points month-on-month but up 8.17 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The operating rate for the enameled wire industry is expected to decline to 69.81%, a decrease of 6.98 percentage points month-on-month [1] - In April, the production of photovoltaic modules by major Chinese companies reached 55 GW, a month-on-month increase of 3.38% and year-on-year stability [1] - The production of battery cells in April was 59.8 GW, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.13% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.97% [1] - Cumulative inventory of new energy vehicles in China reached 788,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 47% and a month-on-month increase of 8% [1] Inventory Levels - LME copper inventory decreased by 1,100 tons to 190,750 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts increased by 9,073 tons to 29,157 tons [1] Market Outlook - The market sentiment improved on May 13 due to progress in US-China tariff negotiations, although COMEX inventories continue to rise [1]

10:57 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 939.09 吨黄金 黄金ETF总持合变化 更新时间:2025-05- 960 950 940 930 920 910 900 890 2025-05-05 2025-04-17 2025-03-14 2025-04-01 .Il 5G EBC黄金ETF持仓报告解读 截至5月12日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为939.09吨，较前一个交易日增加1.15吨。5月12日，现货黄金大跌，盘中一度下挫至3207.71美 元/盎司，为超一周以来的最低水平，收报3234.95美元/盎司，跌90.49美元或2.72%。在金价大幅杀跌之际，黄金ETF持仓量。 基本面消息，受到中美贸易谈判的积极消息影响，市场避险情绪急剧降温，金价大跌超90美元，盘中最多跌超100美元。据央视新闻报道，商务部称，本次 中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，中美各取消了共计91%的加征关税；暂停实施24%的"对等关税"。 值得注意的是，随着贸易谈判释放良好进展的信号，市场对于美联储降息预期的押注进一步推迟，目前 ...

黄金技术面分析： 黄金消息面解析 1、中东局势持续紧张，伊朗核谈判推迟，美伊关系紧张。同时，美国总统特朗普再度释放对华关税威胁，称"对中国商品征收80%关税似乎是正确的"，这 些因素叠加导致市场避险情绪急剧升温，大量资金涌入黄金市场，推动黄金价格上涨。 2、美元指数短期出现回落，由于黄金是以美元计价，美元的走弱极大地缓解了黄金的价格压力，使得国际金价传导至国内市场的折价逐渐收窄，进一步助 推了国内黄金价格的上涨。 3、在5月8日美联储宣布将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%不变，连续第三次会议保持按兵不动。鲍威尔强调美联储并不急于行动，全体委员都支持耐心观望。 市场对美联储未来政策的不确定性仍然较高，这也在一定程度上影响了黄金市场。 白银技术面分析： 周五开盘32.448，日内震荡上行，没有比较好的趋势机会，报收32.717的小阳线。从20均线上看，收盘价回到均线上方，方向暂时偏多。 小时级价格从底部震荡区间反弹回来，价格还在大的震荡区间内部，没有较好的趋势机会，当前价格在均线上方，方向偏多。15分钟级别向上两笔，力度都 不强，在前面整数关口33.000有一定的压力，操作上可以考虑高抛低吸。 今日操作建议： ...

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis of Spot Gold - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with differing opinions on potential rate cuts within the year, which could enhance gold's value preservation demand [2] - Strong U.S. employment data may raise inflation concerns, supporting gold prices; however, March core PCE data showed a slowdown in inflation, leading to a more cautious monetary policy from the Fed [2] - Economic data from major economies like China will also impact physical demand for gold and global capital flows [2] Group 2: Geopolitical and Market Sentiment - Escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East have heightened market risk aversion, driving funds into gold and supporting its price [3] - Fluctuations in global financial markets and unpredictable trade policies have led investors to seek refuge in gold, pushing prices higher [3] - The interplay of Fed monetary policy, economic data, geopolitical tensions, and market sentiment collectively influences gold prices, with a potential short-term target of $3,500 per ounce if dovish Fed statements and worsening geopolitical situations persist [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Spot Gold - The spot gold market initially broke through the key resistance level of $3,399, reaching an intraday peak of $3,414.79, but subsequently reversed direction [4] - After a brief consolidation, gold prices fell to the target level of $3,322, achieving a notable profit margin of $42 [4] - Current technical indicators suggest a dominant bearish trend, with short-term moving averages suppressing long-term averages, indicating a high likelihood of continued downward movement [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Spot Silver - The spot silver market showed expected behavior, rebounding to $33.750 before retreating to a low of $32.295, where signs of stabilization emerged [6] - The short-term chart indicates a prevailing bearish trend, with short-term moving averages consistently crossing below long-term averages [6] - Suggested trading strategy includes waiting for silver prices to rebound to the resistance level of $32.660 for a short position, with a stop-loss set at $32.960 and a profit target at $32.240 [6]

现货黄金在美联储利率决议落地后，延续了上周的回调态势。美联储官员在讲话中着重强调了经济韧性，此立场大幅削弱了市场对于短期内降息的预期。由 于黄金属于无息资产，降息预期的降低直接导致其相对吸引力下滑。与此同时金价波动还受到美英即将公布贸易协议这一消息的驱动。此外特朗普宣布与胡 塞武装达成停火协议，市场对地缘风险降级的预期升温。多重因素共同作用，使得本周初以来持续发酵的市场避险情绪显著降温，进而对金价形成下行压 力。 从技术层面分析，黄金价格当前处于一个较为明显的箱体整理区间。短线支撑位处于 3310 美元附近，该位置是前期价格突破高点后的回踩确认区域，具备 较强的技术支撑意义。若金价有效跌破该支撑位，极有可能下探至 3300 美元的关键支撑区域，一旦该区域失守，或将打开新的下跌趋势通道，翁富豪提醒 大家需对此予以重点关注。 小时级盘面显示，历史高位至本周高位形成下行趋势线，3200 - 3310 构成上行趋势线，当前金价在两条趋势线形成的收敛区间上方交投，虽显弱势，但多 头趋势通道未破。短线需留意 4H 中轨 3355 - 3360 附近反压，若金价拉低后企稳于该区间上方，看涨信号增强；若持续受压于此，或有一定 ...

关税牵动市场避险情绪，黄金高位回落，多头资金高位兑现，空头能否主导市场？立即观看超V推荐官 Jason的分析，马上进入直播间>>> 相关链接 ...

市场避险情绪高烧不退，黄金倒车接人，还能上车吗？金十研究员高阳正在直播分析，点击进入直播间 相关链接 ...

在关注黄金走势之余，再让我们来看一下铂金价格。以六福黄金为例，今日黄金饰品价格上涨7元/克，铂金饰品上涨5元/ 克，报价402元/克。如果大家还想知道其他金店的铂金报价，欢迎在评论区留言告知，小金将及时收集整理并为您更新。 今日黄金回收市场走势与金价相同，金店黄金回收价格继续上涨5.8元/克。同时，每个品牌的回收价格也不一样，小金大致 整理了几个，详见下表，数据仅供参考： | 今日金店黄金回收价格一览(2025年5月7日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回收报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | | 黄金 | 788. 80 | 元/克 | | 菜自黄金 | 786. 50 | 元/克 | | 周生生黄金 | 784. 10 | 元/克 | | 周大福黄金 | 788. 50 | 元/克 | | 老凤祥黄金 | 794. 10 | 元/克 | 5月7日国内金价快报：国内各大金店金价继续保持上涨，整体价格突破1030元/克。今日最高价依旧是六福等金店，价格上 涨7元/克，最新标价1033元/克。上海中国黄金价格大涨24元/克，还是报价993元/克，为最低价金店。今日金店黄金价差40 元/克， ...

技术面显示，黄金早间剧烈波动符合近期凌晨洗盘特征，但需警惕连续慢涨后出现大幅回落，或为多头动能衰竭信号。若日内无 法有效突破3404分水岭，则短线见顶概率将进一步上升。操作层面，建议投资者避免盲目追高，重点关注美联储决议对实际利率 及美元的影响，若决议偏鸽则黄金或延续反弹，偏鹰则需警惕回调风险。目前上方阻力在3397-3407。下方支撑在3360-3350，操 作上徐老师建议回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅。 国际地缘局势骤然升温，市场避险情绪再度推高黄金价格，但今晚美联储利率决议及鲍威尔讲话将成为多空博弈的关键节点。当 前美元指数维持99.3附近震荡，暂未显现明确方向，市场对决议结果分歧显著。黄金昨日以光头阳线强势突破3437关口，但今日 早盘突发跳水，最低触及3360，跌幅达77点，随后反抽至3404附近，形成短线重要阻力位。 操作策略2：建议反弹3414-3419空，损3426，目标看3380-3350。 面对市场，实际上就是面对自己，改正缺点，直面错误，严格律己，不说谎言，才是成功的根本。本人徐老师解读世界经济体 制，全面剖析海内外交易品种，重点把握第一时间重要财经基本面的解说，引领投资者正确导向，投资是一 ...