Group 1 - International spot gold experienced a significant drop of $46.05, reaching $3322.93 per ounce, marking a decline of 1.37% and hitting a two-week low [1] - Spot silver also fell below the $36 mark, trading at $35.83 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold futures in China dropped by 1.10% to 772.22 yuan per gram, while major jewelry brands saw a decrease of 14 yuan to 998 yuan per gram, falling below the 1000 yuan threshold [1] Group 2 - The unexpected announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran led to a rapid withdrawal of funds from safe-haven assets, directly causing the drop in gold prices [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish stance on interest rates reduced the probability of a rate cut in September to below 35%, resulting in a stronger dollar index and increased holding costs for gold, further contributing to the price decline [3] Group 3 - Despite short-term pressures, the underlying logic for international spot gold remains unchanged, with ongoing geopolitical risks and a potential spike in oil prices if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, which could reignite demand for gold as a safe haven [4] - Global central bank gold reserves have risen to 22%, the highest level since 1965, with China increasing its holdings to 2300 tons over the past eight months, indicating a continued trend that may influence future gold prices [4] - The demand for silver is expected to remain robust, with projected photovoltaic silver consumption reaching 140 million ounces by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12% [4]

1. 美联储政策预期修正：美国5月非农就业数据超预期增长，市场对年内降息预期从"三次降息"骤降至"单次降息不足50基点"，美元指数与美债收益率同 步飙升，直接压制以美元计价的黄金资产价值。 一、市场情绪逆转下的金价"滑铁卢"：数据透视与逻辑推演 2025年6月，国际黄金市场经历剧烈波动，纽约商品交易所8月黄金期货价格单日跌幅达0.84%，现货黄金价格更在6月13日暴跌1.27%，这波行情背后折射 出市场情绪的**结构性转变**。核心诱因包括： 5. 极速交易生态：采用MT4/MT5双平台系统，订单执行速度≤0.05秒，行情数据与伦敦金银市场协会(LBMA)实现毫秒级同步。以6月13日暴跌行情为例， 平台客户在非农数据公布后0.3秒内完成挂单，实际成交价与预设价偏差仅0.8%，有效规避滑点风险。 2. 全球风险偏好升温：多国经济数据向好叠加地缘冲突缓和，投资者从黄金等避险资产转向股票、债券等风险资产，导致黄金ETF持仓量连续三周下降。 国内市场反应更为直观，周六福、老庙等品牌金饰克价跌破千元大关，单日跌幅达15元/克，反映出消费端对金价波动的敏感响应。 3. 通胀预期的再平衡：美国4月CPI数据不及预期，市场对 ...

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis of Spot Gold - The core viewpoint is that a significant trade agreement between China and the U.S. has led to a major easing of tariffs, resulting in a sharp decline in spot gold prices [2] - Following the agreement on May 12, 2025, spot gold prices fell nearly $80, reaching a low of $3245.85 per ounce, and continued to decline to $3137.33 per ounce by May 15, representing a drop of over 9% from April highs [2] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced risk aversion due to trade easing, with funds moving from gold to the stock market, alongside a rebound in the U.S. dollar index to 101.04 and a rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.536%, increasing the holding cost of gold [2] - There is a divergence between the physical and financial markets, with brand gold jewelry prices falling to 975-992 yuan per gram, while demand for gold bars increased by 29.81% in the first quarter, indicating stable consumer decision-making [2] - The outlook remains uncertain due to ongoing U.S.-China trade dynamics, but geopolitical risks and global central bank gold purchases (with China increasing holdings for six consecutive months) provide medium to long-term support for gold prices, with institutions predicting a rise to $3500.00-$3700.00 by year-end [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Spot Gold - The recent price movements in the spot gold market have shown volatility, with a low of $3120.57 followed by a V-shaped recovery, currently priced around $3238.00 per ounce [3] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish arrangement in the 15-minute moving average, suggesting a higher probability of short-term price increases [3] - A trading strategy is recommended, advising investors to consider going long if prices fall to the support level of $3215.50, with a stop-loss set at $3190.00 and a take-profit target at the resistance level of $3265.00 [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Spot Silver - The spot silver market did not break the key support level of $31.630 as expected, instead rebounding strongly after testing this support, with current prices around $32.660 [5] - The 15-minute short-term chart shows a bullish arrangement in the moving averages, indicating a high probability of continued price increases in the short term [5] - A specific trading guideline suggests waiting for a price drop to the support level of $32.550 to go long, with a stop-loss at $32.290 and a take-profit target at the resistance level of $32.920 [5]

今年以来持续狂飙的金价突然被按下"暂停键"，并开始持续下跌，国际金价连破3300美元、3200美元两大整数关口。 国际知名金融机构花旗近期大幅下调了黄金的展望价，引发市场高度关注。随着中美关税谈判缓和，避险情绪降温，金价有所回落。未来一段时间，黄金是 否还值得投资？ 从狂飙突进到掉头下跌 品牌金饰价格跌回三位数 5月15日，国际现货黄金价格继续放量下探，继失守3200美元/盎司关口后，一度跌至3120美元/盎司，日内跌超0.3%，近一周累计跌幅超4%。 随着国际金价的下探，国内金价也有所回调，15日，记者在广州东山百货商场看到，当日的黄金基准价报743.2元/克。 当日，周大福、周六福等门店品牌金饰的足金价格也出现明显下降，大多在970-980元/克，已从此前的千元高位跌落回"三位数"，较4月22日的年内高点已跌 超百元每克。 此前，黄金价格持续飙升，年内不断刷出历史新高。4月下旬，国际现货黄金突破3500美元/盎司。资金疯狂涌入金市，多家银行和金店今年一度出现了金条 卖断货的景象。 兴业银行、广发银行等银行甚至发布了信用卡"炒金"风险提示，严控信用卡"炒金"，明确指出信用卡资金不得用于投资股市、黄金等高风险 ...

三、现货白银技术面： 值得关注的是，实物黄金与金融市场出现明显分化。尽管金融市场金价大幅波动，周大福等品牌金饰价格波动远小于金融市场，这与消费者购买决策稳定性 强、受短期情绪影响有限密切相关。2025年一季度数据显示，全球金饰消费量同比下降21%至380吨，但投资需求激增170%，中国金条金币需求量达124 吨，创历史第二高季度水平，显示出市场对黄金的配置逻辑已从消费转向投资驱动。 二、现货黄金技术面： 回顾亚洲盘现货黄金市场，价格按预期继续下跌，最终跌破了关键支撑位3201.00，目前市场报价约为3185.00美元/盎司。聚焦1H周期图表，1H周期顺均线 顺向空头排列，后续价格继续下跌的概率较高。 基于上述技术分析，为投资者制定以下交易策略：建议密切关注盘面变化，当价格反弹至上方压力位3215.40附近时，可考虑开仓做空。止损设置在上方高 点上方的3245.40，止盈设置于下方低点支撑位3170.00。 一、现货黄金基本面： 2025年5月12日，中美两国在日内瓦宣布重大关税调整协议，引发全球金融市场震荡，现货黄金市场也受到显著冲击。 协议落地后，现货黄金价格在欧市早盘暴跌近80美元，最低触及3245.85 ...