Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing challenges and potential shifts in the international monetary system, particularly focusing on the decline of the US dollar and the implications of stablecoins in this context [3][4][5]. Group 1: Current Monetary System Challenges - Since early 2025, the narrative of "American exceptionalism" has been challenged, leading to a 12.5% decline in the US dollar index [3]. - Following the "reciprocal tariffs" impact in April, the US financial markets experienced simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currency [3]. - The "Triffin Dilemma," which predicts a crisis of confidence in the dollar due to excessive credit expansion, is highlighted as a historical precedent for current issues [3][4]. Group 2: Stablecoins and Their Role - The article raises questions about the nature and functions of stablecoins, exploring their potential roles in the monetary system and their relationship with the US dollar [5]. - It emphasizes the need for a deeper understanding of the essence of money and the functions it serves, particularly in the context of stablecoins [5]. Group 3: Political and Economic Interconnections - The relationship between alliance politics, monetary issues, and strategy is underscored, indicating that the dollar and gold issues are intertwined with broader political concerns, such as US-NATO relations and Germany's role [6]. - The article stresses that economic policies cannot be viewed in isolation from strategic and foreign policy issues, highlighting the political dimensions of monetary matters [6].

特朗普对全球展开的关税战让人愈加感到可怕，这种局势可能使美国一步步走向新一轮的大萧条。 在7月10日，特朗普宣布将于8月1日起向加拿大征收35%的关税，他解释称这是因为"加拿大并未与美国 达成合作，而是采取了报复性关税的策略。"经过一番探讨，闲闲财经并没有发现加拿大对美国实施反 制的动作，截止目前，似乎只有中国在对美国的措施做出回应。若按现状发展到8月1日，除了中国，其 他国家也大可能会对美国实施反制。考虑到美国先前对钢铝和铜加税的炎症，预计到2025年，这一系列 关税措施将重创加拿大。 可以明确的是，行业关税几乎没有谈判的余地，假如加拿大遭受重创，随着8月1日的临近，加拿大被迫 对美国展开反击的可能性在大幅增加。此外，特朗普还曾表示要对巴西加征50%的关税，虽然美巴之间 存在谈判空间，但考虑到在8月1日之前，很多国家都未与美国展开谈判，时日已晚。 当前，世界面临的一个重要挑战在于，美国退出自由经济的背景下，需要一个超级大经济体来替代美 国，以缓解市场需求不足的压力。而历史的重责大任，恰好落在中国肩上。 刺激内需不仅对提升本国经济至关重要，对于全球经济的健康发展也同样具有举足轻重的影响。只要中 国能够有效实现 ...

Core Points - The imposition of a 50% "reciprocal tariff" by the Trump administration has led to an unprecedented economic disaster in Lesotho, a small landlocked country in Africa, which heavily relies on the U.S. for its textile exports [1][3] - Lesotho's economy is significantly impacted as 90% of its exports depend on the textile industry, which has been supported by the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) allowing duty-free access to over 7,000 products [1][3] - The immediate effects of the tariff have resulted in over 7,000 job losses in the textile sector within a month, threatening the industry that contributes approximately 10% to the country's GDP [3][5] Economic Impact - The textile industry in Lesotho has created around 40,000 jobs, accounting for 90% of the country's export manufacturing jobs, making it a critical sector for the nation's economy [1][3] - The unemployment crisis has led to a 35% food shortage rate in the capital, Maseru, and rising maize meal prices, exacerbating the humanitarian situation [3][5] - The Lesotho government has allocated 3% of its departmental budget (approximately $22.2 million) to an emergency fund aimed at creating 60,000 new jobs through construction and agricultural projects over two years [3][6] International Response - The international community has criticized the U.S. for its actions, with the United Nations Trade and Development Conference stating that the U.S. is destroying the most vulnerable economies [6] - South Africa has pledged 20 million rand (about $1 million) in emergency aid, while China is providing humanitarian assistance worth 10 million yuan [6] - The situation in Lesotho highlights the vulnerability of small nations in the global trade system, as they often become collateral damage in the geopolitical strategies of larger countries [6][8] Future Outlook - The Lesotho government is seeking concessions from the U.S. while also exploring other African markets and support under AGOA [8] - The challenges faced by Lesotho serve as a reminder of the far-reaching impacts of economic policies in a globalized world, emphasizing the need for larger nations to consider the consequences of their trade rules on smaller countries [8]

Group 1: US-Japan Trade Negotiations - The US has significantly increased tariffs on Japanese imports, raising the auto import tariff from 2.5% to 25%, with an overall tariff rate on Japanese products reaching 35% after the negotiation buffer period [3][4] - Japan's auto exports to the US were approximately $40 billion last year, accounting for about 28% of Japan's total exports to the US, which is critical for Japan's economy [4] - Japan is currently in a weaker negotiating position and may have to make concessions in other areas, such as increasing investments in the US and expanding imports of US agricultural products [5][6] Group 2: US-Korea Trade Negotiations - South Korea is also facing a 25% tariff on imports, but the initial proposed rate was 26%, indicating a slightly more favorable negotiation stance from the US [8][9] - Key exports from South Korea to the US include automobiles and semiconductors, with auto exports reaching $34.7 billion last year, making the US the largest market for South Korean cars [10][11] - South Korea is adopting a defensive compromise strategy, potentially accepting a 10% baseline tariff while seeking to protect its automotive and semiconductor export interests [11] Group 3: US-India Trade Negotiations - The US initially proposed a 26% tariff on Indian goods, which could raise the overall tariff rate to at least 36%, impacting India's exports significantly [13][14] - India's agricultural sector is a major sticking point in negotiations, as the government is reluctant to compromise on agricultural protections due to political implications [14][15] - Despite the challenges, India is seeking to maintain its export relationship with the US, which accounts for 23% of its total exports, and is looking for concessions in industrial goods tariffs [15][16] Group 4: US-ASEAN Trade Negotiations - The US is employing a divide-and-conquer strategy with ASEAN countries, imposing varying tariff rates on different member states, which could lead to significant economic impacts [18][20] - Vietnam and Indonesia have already reached trade agreements with the US, accepting substantial tariff concessions, highlighting their economic dependence on the US market [19][20] - The overall impact of US tariffs on ASEAN could exceed $160 billion, particularly affecting the automotive, electronics, and textile industries [20][21]

Group 1 - The fund aims to achieve long-term stable appreciation of assets by investing in high-quality companies with long-term value and growth potential while controlling risks [2][3] - The fund's investment strategy includes active asset allocation based on macroeconomic analysis, dynamic adjustments to investment proportions across various asset classes, and a focus on long-term investment value analysis of individual stocks [2][3] - The fund's performance benchmark is a combination of the CSI 800 Index return (70%), the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Composite Index return (10%), and the China Bond Composite Wealth Index return (20%) [3] Group 2 - As of the end of the reporting period, the total fund shares amounted to 209,395,467.89 shares, with the A share and C share classes having 147,397,456.97 shares and 61,998,010.92 shares respectively [2][3] - The fund's net value growth rates for the A and C share classes were -2.08% and -2.23% respectively, while the performance benchmark return was 1.57% [10][11] - The fund's asset allocation at the end of the reporting period included 91.27% in stocks and 1.02% in bonds, with a significant portion of equity investments made through the Hong Kong Stock Connect mechanism [11][12] Group 3 - The fund manager has a strong background in investment management, with extensive experience in various roles within the industry, ensuring a knowledgeable approach to fund management [4][6] - The fund has maintained appropriate liquidity to meet redemption requirements while managing liquidity risk effectively [3][8] - The fund's investment portfolio has been adjusted to focus on sectors with stable performance, such as banking, while reducing exposure to sectors facing intense price competition [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain; exports were under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. China's H1 GDP grew 5.3% year - on - year, higher than the annual target of 5%. The government may further strengthen pro - growth policies in the Politburo meeting in July [1]. - After passing the "Big Beautiful" Act, Trump shifted his focus to external pressure to advance tariff negotiations. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff events on demand expectations [2]. - Domestic supply - side is most sensitive to the black and new - energy metal sectors, while overseas inflation expectations benefit the energy and non - ferrous sectors. Currently, the commodity fundamentals are still weak, and caution is needed regarding policy implementation [3]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to allocate more industrial products on dips [4]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - China's economic data in May was mixed. Investment weakened, exports were under pressure, and only consumption was resilient. China's June manufacturing PMI rebounded, mainly driven by some raw - material industries. The growth of industrial added value and new - energy vehicle and industrial robot production was rapid in June, while the growth of social retail sales slowed down. Investment in infrastructure and manufacturing declined, and overall fixed - asset investment weakened. Since July, policies to combat "involution" in industries such as photovoltaic, lithium - battery, and automotive have been expected to increase, and some commodity prices have recovered [1]. - Trump signed the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill, shifting the US from a stage of "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary policy" to a stage of "easy to loosen and difficult to tighten" policies. The Fed may consider a rate cut, and tariff negotiations are accelerating. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs on demand expectations [2]. Commodity Market - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the supply constraint in the non - ferrous sector remains unresolved, and the energy market has a short - term end of geopolitical premium and a medium - term supply - side easing. OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected. The short - term fluctuation of agricultural products is relatively limited [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to buy industrial products on dips [4]. Important News - The market opened low and closed high, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. Trump criticized Fed Chair Powell and may impose tariffs on Japan and other countries. The eurozone's June inflation data met expectations [5].

Report Overview - **Report Name**: Shanjin Futures Crude Oil Daily Report - **Update Time**: July 18, 2025, 08:15 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - OPEC+ is likely to increase production, and high - frequency data is gradually confirming this. The medium - to long - term outlook for crude oil is bearish, but geopolitical factors may still have a pulsed impact, though less intense than before. The focus of crude oil trading may return to supply and demand [2]. - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain, with the possibility of renewed conflict between Israel and Iran. However, the impact on oil prices may be limited if the expectation of blocked shipping lanes does not return [2]. - The "Big and Beautiful" bill signed by Trump may have a gradual and spill - over impact on the market. The implementation of high tariffs may lead to bearish macro - side expectations, higher inflation in the US, and make it difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates [2]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil Futures**: On July 1, Sc was at 499.40 yuan/barrel, up 2.70 yuan (0.54%) from the previous day and down 19.20 yuan (-3.70%) from the previous week. WTI was at 65.53 dollars/barrel, up 0.56 dollars (0.86%) from the previous day and up 0.52 dollars (0.80%) from the previous week. Brent was at 67.28 dollars/barrel, up 0.65 dollars (0.98%) from the previous day and down 0.54 dollars (-0.80%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spreads**: Sc - WTI was at 4.28 dollars/barrel, down 0.13 dollars (-2.99%) from the previous day and down 3.08 dollars (-41.84%) from the previous week. Sc - Brent was at 2.53 dollars/barrel, down 0.22 dollars (-8.06%) from the previous day and down 2.02 dollars (-44.37%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at 68.35 dollars/barrel, up 0.36 dollars (0.53%) from the previous week. Brent DTD was at 68.17 dollars/barrel, down 1.05 dollars (-1.52%) from the previous week. Oman was at 69.20 dollars/barrel, up 1.40 dollars (2.06%) from the previous week. Dubai was at 68.75 dollars/barrel, up 0.95 dollars (1.40%) from the previous week [2]. - **Product Spot Prices**: Diesel in East China was at 7036.45 yuan/ton, down 56.27 yuan (-0.79%) from the previous day and down 380.55 yuan (-5.13%) from the previous week. Gasoline in East China was at 8078.18 yuan/ton, down 66.18 yuan (-0.81%) from the previous day and down 384.27 yuan (-4.54%) from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory Data**: Sc warehouse receipts were at 591.10 million barrels, up 188.20 million barrels (46.71%) from the previous week. US strategic petroleum reserves were at 402.53 million barrels, up 0.24 million barrels (0.06%) from the previous week. US commercial crude oil was at 415.11 million barrels, down 5.84 million barrels (-1.39%) from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Geopolitical and Policy News - E3 foreign ministers and the EU High Representative called on Iran to return to diplomatic channels to reach a verifiable and lasting nuclear agreement by the end of summer, or face renewed UN sanctions [3]. - A US assessment found that only one of the three Iranian nuclear facilities attacked last month was largely destroyed, and Trump rejected a more comprehensive military strike plan against Iran's nuclear program [3]. - Angola plans to increase its oil exports to 1.03 million barrels per day in September [3]. 3.3 Macroeconomic News - In May 2025, Japan and the UK increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds, while China continued to reduce its holdings. Japan's holdings were 1.135 trillion dollars, the UK's were 0.8094 trillion dollars, and China's were 0.7563 trillion dollars [4]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 46.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 51.7% [4]. - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Some believe rates should remain unchanged due to tariff - induced inflation pressure, while others support a 25 - basis - point cut [4][5][6]. 3.4 Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations - In the medium term, the market is in a neutral oscillation pattern, with support and resistance levels around 65 and 68.3 dollars/barrel respectively. Short - term attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the 66.5 dollars/barrel resistance level for US crude oil [2]. - The trading strategy is to sell on rallies, choose the right timing, or use out - of - the - money put options to avoid short - term bullish shocks [2]

特朗普16日还表示，可能很快与印度达成贸易协议。据新加坡《联合早报》17日报道，印度面临的税率 为26%，其代表团本周一抵达华盛顿展开谈判。《印度快报》称，这是两国就双边贸易协定进行的第五 轮谈判。 美国"政治新闻网"称，特朗普上周向20多个经济体发送"关税信函"，这意味着，一些没有收到信函的国 家可能更接近与美国达成"真正的协议"，包括印度。它是最早开始与美国展开贸易谈判的国家之 一。"印度已经作出诸多让步，尤其在关税方面。"美国前谈判代表林斯科特说。 彭博社16日引述印度官员的话称，印方正在寻求比印尼（19%）更低的税率，使其比地区其他国家更具 有竞争优势。知情人士说，印度认为，它并不像越南等东南亚国家那样被美国视为转运中心。印度国家 银行首席经济学家、总理经济咨询委员会成员戈什表示，谈判团队希望将税率降至10%以下。根据他的 说法，印度不愿意开放农业和乳制品行业，但可能在工业领域作出让步。《印度时报》16日说，新德里 提出了一项取消美国工业产品关税的方案，前提是美国也作出同样举措。不过"政治新闻网"说，无论此 次印度与美国宣布什么内容，预计这只是达成贸易协议的第一阶段，更全面的协议将在秋季出台。 关于日 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the unexpected announcement by President Trump regarding tariffs on Vietnamese goods, which has created significant uncertainty for Vietnam's economy and businesses [1][4][6] - Vietnam has become the 10th largest trading partner of the U.S., with exports exceeding $130 billion, making any changes in trade agreements particularly impactful [3][6] - The sudden increase in tariffs, particularly the 20% on exports to the U.S. and 40% on re-exported goods, poses a challenge for Vietnamese manufacturers who rely heavily on imported materials from China [4][6] Group 2 - The textile industry in Vietnam, exemplified by companies like Thanh Cong Garment, faces a potential increase in costs due to the new tariffs, which could lead to a significant reduction in orders from U.S. clients [4][6] - Vietnam's economy is highly dependent on exports, with nearly 90% of its GDP coming from trade, and one-third of its exports going to the U.S., making the tariff changes a direct threat to economic growth [6][8] - The ambiguity surrounding the definition of "transshipment" in the new trade agreement raises concerns for Vietnamese businesses that depend on Chinese raw materials, potentially leading to further economic repercussions [6][8]

Group 1 - Brazil's government has expressed strong outrage against the U.S. for imposing a 50% tariff on its imports, indicating potential negative impacts on the economic relationship between the two countries [2][5][6] - The Brazilian government has suspended exports of fishery products and beef to the U.S. in response to the tariff threat, with significant portions of these products being reliant on the U.S. market [7][8] - Brazil's fishing industry is particularly vulnerable, with 70% of its fishery products exported to the U.S., and the potential for 3,500 fishing vessels to cease operations due to the tariff [7][8] Group 2 - The Brazilian government has initiated a dialogue with the U.S. to seek alternative solutions to the trade issues, emphasizing the need for a fair resolution to the tariff situation [5][6] - The U.S. Trade Representative has launched a "301 investigation" into Brazil's digital trade practices, which may further complicate trade relations [6] - Brazil's beef export sector is also facing challenges, with approximately 30,000 tons of beef currently in transit to the U.S. and uncertainty regarding their entry into the market [7][8]