Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View On Thursday, the RB2510 contract declined with reduced positions. The July manufacturing PMI in China was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased slightly this period, with a capacity utilization rate of 46.27% (year - on - year increase). Terminal demand was poor, apparent demand declined, and inventory increased. Overall, economic data was worse than expected, and combined with the limit - down of coking coal, market sentiment was dampened, causing rebar prices to fall. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were adjusting downward with an enlarged green column. The operation suggestion is short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,205 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; position: 1,816,026 lots, down 213,107 lots; top 20 net positions: - 58,700 lots, down 59,984 lots; RB10 - 1 contract spread: - 56 yuan/ton, unchanged; RB exchange warehouse receipts: 85,034 tons, unchanged; HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 185 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,380 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; (actual weight): 3,467 yuan/ton, down 103 yuan; Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,470 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,330 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; RB main contract basis: 175 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 80 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 770 yuan/wet ton, down 16 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,365 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Q235 billet: 3,140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; 45 - port iron ore inventory: 13,790.38 million tons, up 5.17 million tons; sample coking plant coke inventory: 49.80 million tons, down 5.62 million tons; sample steel mill coke inventory: 640 million tons, up 0.91 million tons; 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.48%, up 0.14 percentage points; Tangshan billet inventory: 111.02 million tons, up 4.10 million tons; 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.78%, down 0.14 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Sample steel mill rebar output: 211.06 million tons, down 0.90 million tons; sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate: 46.27%, down 0.20 percentage points; sample steel mill rebar inventory: 162.15 million tons, down 3.52 million tons; 35 - city rebar social inventory: 384.14 million tons, up 11.17 million tons; independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate: 68.75%, up 5.21 percentage points; domestic crude steel output: 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons; Chinese rebar monthly output: 1,688 million tons, up 30 million tons; steel net export volume: 921 million tons, down 89 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - National real estate climate index: 93.60, down 0.11; cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment: 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points; cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment: - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points; cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment: 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points; cumulative value of housing construction area: 633,321 million square meters, down 8,302 million square meters; cumulative value of new housing construction area: 30,364 million square meters, down 7,181 million square meters; commercial housing unsold area: 40,821 million square meters, up 443 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points; medium - scale enterprises' PMI was 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points; small - scale enterprises' PMI was 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points. - In June 2025, China's engineering machinery export value was 5.074 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 10.2%. The export value of excavators was 891 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 24.16% and a month - on - month increase of 0.22% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in July showed a short-term fluctuation, dropping to 49.3%, while the overall economic output remains in an expansion phase, supported by non-manufacturing indices above 50% [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and extreme weather conditions [1]. - The new orders index for manufacturing was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, and the new export orders index was 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points [1]. - Despite weak market demand, the production index was at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion for the third consecutive month [1]. Key Industries - The equipment manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 1.1 percentage points but still in the expansion zone; high-tech manufacturing PMI was 50.6%, maintaining expansion for six months [2]. - Large enterprises showed stable expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [2]. Price Indices - The raw material purchase price index for manufacturing was 51.5%, up 3.1 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone after four months below 50% [2]. - The factory price index was 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [2]. Market Expectations - The manufacturing production and operation activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, indicating increased confidence among manufacturers [3]. - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, with the service sector at 50% and construction at 50.6%, both remaining in the expansion zone [3]. - The non-manufacturing business activity expectation index was 55.8%, reflecting optimism among most non-manufacturing enterprises [3]. Future Outlook - It is anticipated that construction activities will rebound as the rainy season ends, supported by policies aimed at boosting investment and consumption [4].

Group 1 - The non-manufacturing business activity index for July is 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion in the sector [9] - The comprehensive PMI output index for July is 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month, yet remains above the critical point, suggesting that overall production and business activities in China are maintaining expansion [4] - The manufacturing PMI for July has slightly decreased to 49.3%, remaining below the critical point, indicating ongoing economic downward pressure [7] Group 2 - The new orders index in the manufacturing PMI has dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, entering the contraction zone, reflecting a potential weakening in market demand [8] - The production index stands at 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, while the supplier delivery time index is at 50.3%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating mixed signals in manufacturing activity [7] - The construction activity index for July is 50.6%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points, influenced by adverse weather conditions affecting construction activities [9] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the decline in manufacturing PMI is primarily due to weakened external demand and a slowdown in domestic consumption growth, particularly in the real estate market [8][10] - The prices of major raw materials have shown improvement, with the purchasing price index rising to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March [8] - The overall economic outlook indicates a need for increased macroeconomic policy adjustments to counteract the downward pressure observed in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [10][11]

期货日报网讯（记者 杨美）中国物流与采购联合会、国家统计局服务业调查中心发布的2025年7月份中 国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，较上月下降0.4个百分点，显示宏观经济运行有所波动。分项 指数以及分行业指数变化显示，7月制造业PMI波动主要是受短期因素影响，经济向好恢复基础仍然牢 固。 中国物流信息中心分析师文韬表示，短期因素影响显现，市场需求偏弱运行。7月份，我国多地遭遇高 温热浪、暴雨洪涝以及干旱等极端天气，给户外施工作业、居民日常生活等带来阻碍，进而影响到市场 需求释放。制造业新订单指数为49.4%，较上月下降0.8个百分点，落入收缩区间，显示市场需求有所收 紧。新出口订单指数为47.1%，较上月下降0.6个百分点。结合来看，受短期因素影响，7月份市场需求 偏弱运行。 企业生产保持扩张，稳中有增态势持续。7月份，尽管市场需求端有所偏弱，极端天气持续存在，制造 业企业生产活动仍有所扩张。生产指数为50.5%，虽较上月下降0.5个百分点，仍连续3个月运行在扩张 区间，显示制造业生产活动扩张势头虽短期有所放缓，但稳中有增态势没有改变。 原材料价格有所回升，产成品价格继续趋稳。7月份，制造业原材料购 ...

Manufacturing Sector - China's official manufacturing PMI for July is 49.3, lower than the expected 49.7 and previous value of 49.7 [1] - This indicates a contraction in manufacturing activity, as a PMI below 50 suggests a decline [1] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI is 50.1, also below the expected 50.3 and previous 50.5 [1] - This suggests slower growth in the service sector compared to the previous month [1] Overall Economic Activity - The composite PMI is 50.2, down from the previous 50.7 [1] - This indicates a slight slowdown in overall business activity in China [1]

Economic Data Review - U.S. durable goods orders in June fell by 9.3% month-on-month, the largest decline since April 2020[1] - July manufacturing PMI in the U.S. dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024[7] - Eurozone manufacturing PMI in July reached 49.8, the highest since July 2022[7] U.S. Economic Indicators - The WEI index for the U.S. decreased to 2.22% from 2.34% in the previous week[10] - The Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth in the U.S. fell to 5.1%, down from 5.2%[12] - The 30-year mortgage rate in the U.S. decreased to 6.74% from 6.75% the previous week[15] Financial Conditions - Bloomberg financial conditions index for the U.S. rose to 0.644 from 0.549 a week earlier[29] - The offshore dollar liquidity improved, with the 3-month basis swap for JPY/USD at -22.3589bp, up from -24.6876bp a week prior[31] - The 10-year bond yield spread between the U.S. and Eurozone narrowed to 167.7bp from 168.3bp[33]

Market Insights - President Trump visited the Federal Reserve and described the discussions with Chairman Powell on interest rates as "very productive," indicating a close observation of the committee's rate-setting process [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) paused its interest rate cuts for the first time since June 2024, highlighting trade disputes as a major source of policy uncertainty [1] - The EU member states voted to impose counter-tariffs on $93 billion worth of U.S. products, which will automatically take effect if trade negotiations fail by August 7 [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024, while the services PMI rose to 55.2, marking the highest since December 2024 [2] - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI reached 49.8, the highest since July 2022, with the services PMI unexpectedly rising to 51.2, pushing the composite PMI to 51, above market expectations [2] - South Korea's GDP grew by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, driven by a recovery in consumption and improved exports [2] Commodity and Currency Markets - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.77% to $3,371.3 per ounce, while silver futures decreased by 0.55% to $39.285 per ounce [4] - U.S. oil futures rose by 1.39% to $66.16 per barrel, and Brent crude increased by 0.96% to $68.48 per barrel [5] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.29% to 97.49, with various currency pairs showing mixed performance against the dollar [5][6]

Group 1 - The preliminary value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for July in the U.S. is 49.5, which is below the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 52.9 [1]

Group 1 - The UK's July composite PMI preliminary value recorded at 51.0, marking a two-month low [1] - The services PMI index preliminary value recorded at 51.2, also a two-month low [1] - The manufacturing output PMI preliminary value recorded at 50.0, reaching a nine-month high [1] - The manufacturing PMI recorded at 48.2, indicating a six-month high [1]

英国7月制造业PMI初值 48.2，预期48，前值47.7。 ...