雪球2020年度十大影响力用户，私募基金经理 本文来自微信公众号： 思想钢印 （ID：sxgy9999） ，作者：思想钢印，题图来自： 一、原油价格低是在剥削产油国 吗？ 假期里，照旧写一些离股市比较远的话题，今天聊聊价格内卷，很多国家都出现过部分产业或者全部 产业的产能过剩，本文用三个例子，油、水与奶，看看他们当初是怎么"卷价格"，又是怎么"反内 卷"的。 第一个案例是70年代以前的原油。 石油危机之前，国际市场的原油非常便宜，1970年美国平均零售油价，每加仑汽油约36美分，按通 胀折算到今天，大约等于每加仑2.5美元左右，也就是说，美国人在石油危机前加油的实际生活负 担，大概只是今天的一半甚至更低。 以下文章来源于思想钢印 ，作者思想钢印 思想钢印 . 1970年的大排量汽车非常畅销，因为油价太便宜了，到了1973年石油危机爆发后，油价仅仅涨了一 倍，就直接改写了美国人的购车习惯，从"肌肉车"转向小型车，再也没有改回来过，由此可以看出， 高油价对美国人生活的永久改变，或者换句话说，之前油价低得不合理。 1970年以前的低油价是如何形成的呢？ 石油最初只是用于照明，最典型的产品是煤油，是电灯出现前最主要的 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Suining International Lithium Battery Industry Conference discussed the current "involution" dilemma in the lithium battery industry, emphasizing the need to explore new markets and applications to drive growth [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The lithium battery industry is facing a slowdown in market growth and a fundamental shift in supply-demand dynamics, necessitating the exploration of new markets and applications to create additional growth [1] - Companies are encouraged to focus on quality and technology rather than engaging in price competition, as highlighted by Hive Energy's commitment to long-termism and technological innovation [3] Group 2: Market Expansion Strategies - Rui Pu Lan Jun Energy has shifted from a "product coverage" model to an "industrial chain going abroad" approach, with exports of power batteries accounting for one-third and energy storage batteries over 60% of total exports [3] - Cloud Mountain Power emphasizes the potential for growth in existing markets, particularly in regions with lower penetration rates, such as Northeast China, where addressing low-temperature performance could yield an additional 6%-10% market growth [4] Group 3: Challenges and Solutions - The competitive pressure in overseas markets is significant, with domestic companies facing challenges such as unclear customer positioning and weak intellectual property protection, which can lead to a loss of direction [4] - Nord New Materials is focusing on expanding into the Portuguese market due to favorable labor costs and strong sunlight, while also emphasizing the importance of quality and technological advancement in new market development [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply - The low - electricity - price environment in Southwest China's wet season is ending, and the growth rate of furnace - starting in Xinjiang is also slower than expected. The overall supply pressure is expected to gradually ease [4]. - Demand - The demand from the organic silicon industry has slowed, while the demand from the recycled aluminum alloy remains stable. The demand from the polysilicon sector is expected to increase steadily in the next two months [4]. - Market Outlook - If the supply - side production rate enters a downward channel and the downstream polysilicon demand improves, the oversupply situation may ease, and the industry may reach a price bottom - reversal point [4]. Polysilicon - Supply - The production plan in September is expected to increase month - on - month, exacerbating the supply - side surplus pressure. The increasing number of daily warehouse receipts also exerts pressure on the futures market [10]. - Demand - The production rhythm of silicon wafers and battery cells continues to slow, and the demand for polysilicon is restricted by factors such as lagging terminal installation demand and inventory digestion pressure [10]. - Market Outlook - If major enterprises in the industry reach effective integration agreements, it will fundamentally improve the supply - demand pattern and form long - term support for the market. Currently, investors are advised to be cautious [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8740 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 75 yuan (0.87%) and a weekly increase of 225 yuan (2.64%) [12]. - The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 275329 lots (44.20%) daily and 24186 lots (6.51%) weekly [12]. - The open interest of the main contract increased by 9706 lots (3.49%) daily and 10466 lots (3.77%) weekly [12]. Spot Data - The price of 99 industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Tianjin remained unchanged, while the price of 553 in Xinjiang increased by 100 yuan/ton (1.14%) [20][21]. - The price of 421 in Yunnan increased by 100 yuan/ton (1.14%), and the price of industrial silicon powder and some downstream products also had price changes [21]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 50093 lots, an increase of 48 lots (1.23%) from the previous period [34]. - The inventory in some delivery warehouses remained stable, while the inventory in Tianjin delivery warehouse increased by 198 tons (0.92%) [34]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 53710 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 825 yuan (1.56%) and a weekly increase of 1515 yuan (2.90%) [36]. - The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 133683 lots (32.45%) daily but increased by 10216 lots (3.81%) weekly [36]. - The open interest of the main contract decreased by 746 lots (0.54%) daily and 9624 lots (6.59%) weekly [36]. Spot Data - The prices of N - type polysilicon products such as N - type re - feeding materials and N - type dense materials had slight weekly increases [42]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also had different degrees of changes [42]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 2470 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 845 yuan (52.00%) and a weekly decrease of 1405 yuan (131.92%) [48]. - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 7690 lots, an increase of 320 lots (4.3%) [36].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group emphasizes its focus on long-term strategy over short-term rankings in the home appliance industry, asserting confidence in achieving its annual goals despite market challenges [1][1]. Financial Performance - In Q2, Xiaomi's revenue from home appliances grew by 66%, with air conditioning average selling price (ASP) increasing by approximately 10%, indicating a successful performance amidst a competitive pricing environment [1][1]. Strategic Positioning - Xiaomi's president, Lu Weibing, reiterated that the company will not engage in price wars within the home appliance sector and does not prioritize short-term rankings, highlighting the importance of long-term market positioning [1][1]. - The company expresses complete confidence in its home appliance business and aims to meet its initial targets for the year [1][1].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's president, Lu Weibing, emphasized the company's resilience in the face of intense price competition in the home appliance sector, stating that Xiaomi is focused on long-term market positioning rather than short-term rankings [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the second quarter, Xiaomi's revenue from home appliances grew by 66% [1] - The average selling price (ASP) of air conditioners increased by approximately 10%, indicating a simultaneous rise in both volume and price [1] Group 2: Market Strategy - Xiaomi is not participating in the price war within the home appliance industry and is not concerned with short-term rankings, highlighting a strategic focus on long-term market dynamics [1] - The company believes that the most important factor is whether the long-term competitive landscape will change in its favor [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "subsidy war" among major food delivery platforms has led to record-breaking order volumes, but many restaurant operators report that their profits are being severely squeezed, resulting in financial losses despite increased sales [1][38][40]. Group 1: Impact on Restaurant Profitability - Many restaurants participating in the subsidy programs are experiencing reduced actual income after accounting for costs, with some reporting that their revenue barely covers expenses [5][9][12]. - For example, a tea shop in Yichang reported a net income of only 5.05 yuan from a 19.4 yuan order after deducting various fees, which is nearly equal to the cost of the product [1]. - A dessert shop in Hefei indicated that their actual revenue from online sales was only 6,082 yuan out of a gross sales figure of 11,207 yuan, leading to a loss when fixed costs were considered [5][12]. Group 2: Competitive Pressure and Market Dynamics - Restaurants face a dilemma: participating in subsidies to attract customers or opting out and risking a loss of business to competitors who do participate [7][27]. - A fast-food restaurant in Changsha noted that while their order volume increased significantly, the average income per order decreased by 6.12 yuan, which directly impacts their profit margins [29][31]. - The competitive landscape has shifted, with many restaurants feeling pressured to engage in promotional activities to maintain visibility on delivery platforms, despite the financial strain it imposes [37][40]. Group 3: Structural Issues in the Industry - The complex commission structures and promotional requirements imposed by delivery platforms create a challenging environment for restaurant operators, often leading to a situation where they are effectively "working for the platform" rather than earning a sustainable profit [33][48]. - The reliance on delivery platforms has resulted in a significant decline in dine-in customers, further complicating the financial viability of traditional restaurants [35][37]. - The ongoing subsidy competition has raised concerns about the long-term sustainability of the restaurant industry, as many operators are forced to compromise on quality and service to remain competitive [54][58]. Group 4: Regulatory Response and Future Outlook - In response to the unsustainable practices in the industry, regulatory bodies have begun to intervene, aiming to establish fair competition and protect the interests of restaurants and consumers [49][63]. - Recent statements from major delivery platforms indicate a shift towards more rational subsidy practices, with a focus on creating a healthier market environment [62][64]. - The industry is at a crossroads, with stakeholders advocating for a transition from price competition to value and service competition to ensure long-term viability [60][64].

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant industry in China is facing unprecedented challenges, with a decline in revenue growth and increasing operational pressures due to rising costs and intense competition from food delivery platforms [1] Group 1: Revenue Trends - In the first half of the year, national restaurant revenue and revenue from designated restaurants decreased by 3.6% and 2% respectively compared to the same period last year, indicating weakened growth momentum [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The restaurant sector is experiencing intensified competition driven by high subsidies from food delivery platforms, leading to a "price war" that severely squeezes profit margins for businesses [1] - Rising fixed costs, including ingredients, labor, and rent, are continuously increasing operational pressures on restaurant enterprises [1] Group 3: Industry Response - On July 31, six associations in Guangdong, including the Guangdong Provincial Catering Service Industry Association, issued a joint initiative calling for the industry to stop price competition and return to quality fundamentals [1] - The initiative advocates for promoting dine-in consumption, developing offline business, and enhancing industry governance through activities aimed at revitalizing the food economy and strengthening the "Food in Guangdong" brand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in July showed a short-term fluctuation, dropping to 49.3%, while the overall economic output remains in an expansion phase, supported by non-manufacturing indices above 50% [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and extreme weather conditions [1]. - The new orders index for manufacturing was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, and the new export orders index was 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points [1]. - Despite weak market demand, the production index was at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion for the third consecutive month [1]. Key Industries - The equipment manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 1.1 percentage points but still in the expansion zone; high-tech manufacturing PMI was 50.6%, maintaining expansion for six months [2]. - Large enterprises showed stable expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [2]. Price Indices - The raw material purchase price index for manufacturing was 51.5%, up 3.1 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone after four months below 50% [2]. - The factory price index was 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [2]. Market Expectations - The manufacturing production and operation activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, indicating increased confidence among manufacturers [3]. - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, with the service sector at 50% and construction at 50.6%, both remaining in the expansion zone [3]. - The non-manufacturing business activity expectation index was 55.8%, reflecting optimism among most non-manufacturing enterprises [3]. Future Outlook - It is anticipated that construction activities will rebound as the rainy season ends, supported by policies aimed at boosting investment and consumption [4].

Group 1 - The non-manufacturing business activity index for July is 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion in the sector [9] - The comprehensive PMI output index for July is 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month, yet remains above the critical point, suggesting that overall production and business activities in China are maintaining expansion [4] - The manufacturing PMI for July has slightly decreased to 49.3%, remaining below the critical point, indicating ongoing economic downward pressure [7] Group 2 - The new orders index in the manufacturing PMI has dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, entering the contraction zone, reflecting a potential weakening in market demand [8] - The production index stands at 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, while the supplier delivery time index is at 50.3%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating mixed signals in manufacturing activity [7] - The construction activity index for July is 50.6%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points, influenced by adverse weather conditions affecting construction activities [9] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the decline in manufacturing PMI is primarily due to weakened external demand and a slowdown in domestic consumption growth, particularly in the real estate market [8][10] - The prices of major raw materials have shown improvement, with the purchasing price index rising to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March [8] - The overall economic outlook indicates a need for increased macroeconomic policy adjustments to counteract the downward pressure observed in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent draft amendment to the pricing law aims to strengthen the regulation of unfair price competition, particularly addressing the escalating issue of price internalization, and clarifying the legal responsibilities for behaviors such as low-price dumping and price fraud [1] Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The revision of the pricing law injects stronger legal power to regulate market order and is a targeted response to issues like local protectionism and administrative monopolies that hinder the formation of a unified national market [1][2] - The existing legal framework, including anti-monopoly and anti-unfair competition laws, has weaknesses in execution, particularly in local protection and administrative monopolies [1] Group 2: Key Directions for Improvement - The first key direction is to curb vicious low-price competition, where some companies engage in dumping below cost, leading to a detrimental cycle of price wars, profit shrinkage, halted R&D, and declining quality [2] - The second direction is to break local protection barriers, as some local governments create conditions that effectively block market access for non-local enterprises, undermining the efficiency of resource allocation in a unified national market [2] - The third direction focuses on combating industry monopolies, with the draft explicitly prohibiting practices that force other operators to sell below cost, signaling a shift towards competition that emphasizes efficiency and technological breakthroughs rather than zero-sum games [2] Group 3: Shift in Competitive Dynamics - With the legal framework clarifying the boundaries for market competition, companies are prompted to shift their focus from "whether to compete" to "how to compete," moving from price internalization to innovation breakthroughs [2] - The core function of the pricing law revision is to correct distortions, while the fundamental solution to internalization lies in transitioning industries from low-end competition to high-quality development [2]