文/曹萌 4月30日，A股上市公司年报披露接近尾声，从各家银行披露的2024年财报获悉，处在行业腰部的 城商行，整体资产质量有所提升，且在不良贷款率上，东南沿海地区城商行依旧明显低于中西部地区 城商行。 虽然2024年末11家A股上市城商行的不良贷款率较2023年末实现下降，但须格外注意的是整体不良 贷款率的下降源于加大了公司类不良贷款的处置力度，而与此同时城商行的个人贷款不良率却明显增 加。 在处置不良资产方面，对于城商行等中小银行而言，处置个人不良贷款的成本相对较高，且批量处置 难度较大。这就意味着，在净息差进一步收窄的2025年，城商行不仅要面临利息收入压力的增加， 同时还要面对较大的拨备计提压力。 01 两家上市城商行不良贷款率超平均水平 目前，A股上市城商行共17家，其中，沿海省份的商行9家，西部地区的城商行5家，而两者在资产 质量上对比鲜明。 财报显示，截至2024年末，A股上市城商行不良贷款率在1.7%以上的共有三家，分别为兰州银行、 郑州银行和西安银行。其中，兰州银行和郑州银行 的不良贷款率均超过了金融监管总局公布的2024 年末全国城商行平均不良贷款率1.76%。 02 个人贷款不良率普遍提 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a buy rating for the company’s A/H shares [5][8]. Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year decline in net profit and operating income for Q1 2025, with net profit down by 2.6% and operating income down by 0.1% [1]. - The company is experiencing pressure on its net interest margin, which decreased to 1.71%, while non-interest income showed strong growth of 14.8% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is focusing on cost optimization, which is reflected in the reduction of its cost-to-income ratio to 56.7% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company’s annualized ROE and ROA were 11.33% and 0.58%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [1]. - The company’s total assets, loans, and deposits grew by 8.3%, 9.8%, and 9.2% year-on-year, respectively [2]. Credit and Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was reported at 0.91%, with a provision coverage ratio of 266% [4]. - The company’s NPL generation rate increased to 0.88%, indicating a rise in asset quality concerns [4]. Capital and Valuation - The report estimates the company’s EPS for 2025 at 0.88 RMB, with a projected PB ratio of 0.70 for A shares and 0.64 for H shares [5]. - The target prices are set at 6.29 RMB for A shares and 6.17 HKD for H shares [8][9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that China Merchants Bank experienced a decline in both operating income and net profit for Q1 2025 compared to the previous year, with operating income at 83.751 billion yuan, down 3.09%, and net profit at 37.286 billion yuan, down 2.08% [1] - The bank's net interest income increased by 1.92% year-on-year, reaching 52.996 billion yuan, while non-interest income saw a significant decline of 10.64%, totaling 30.755 billion yuan [1] - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total assets of China Merchants Bank reached 12.529 trillion yuan, a growth of 3.11% from the end of the previous year, with total loans and advances at 7.125 trillion yuan, up 3.44% [1] Group 2 - The bank's non-interest income accounted for 36.72% of total operating income, with net fee and commission income at 19.696 billion yuan, down 2.51% year-on-year, while other net income fell by 22.19% to 11.059 billion yuan, primarily due to the impact of rising market interest rates on the fair value of bond and fund investments [1] - In terms of asset quality, as of the end of Q1 2025, the non-performing loan balance was 66.743 billion yuan, an increase of 1.133 billion yuan from the end of the previous year, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.94%, a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points [2] - The bank's provision coverage ratio stood at 410.03%, down 1.95 percentage points from the end of the previous year, and the loan provision ratio was 3.84%, down 0.08 percentage points [2]

Core Viewpoint - Shengjing Bank is struggling to transform itself two years after shedding its "Evergrande system" identity, facing significant historical burdens and declining financial performance, with a strategic goal of "stabilizing growth, improving quality, increasing efficiency, and enhancing effectiveness" for 2024 [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, Shengjing Bank reported revenue of 8.577 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.57%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 621 million yuan, down 15.21%, marking the fourth consecutive year of revenue and profit decline [2] - The bank's net interest margin was only 0.8%, down 16 basis points year-on-year, significantly lower than the average for commercial banks and city commercial banks, which were 1.52% and 1.38% respectively [4][3] - Total interest-earning assets decreased by nearly 70 billion yuan to 8555.16 billion yuan, a decline of 7.5% year-on-year, with a significant gap between interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities [5] Asset Quality and Loan Performance - As of the end of 2024, Shengjing Bank's total assets grew by 4% to 1.12 trillion yuan, with loans issued amounting to 500.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [9] - The bank's corporate loans, which account for over two-thirds of its credit portfolio, reached 337.88 billion yuan, growing by 9.67% year-on-year, while personal loans showed mixed performance with a notable increase in personal consumption loans [10] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for personal loans was 2.9%, with mortgage loans having a particularly high NPL ratio of 3.66% [12][11] Non-Interest Income - Shengjing Bank achieved non-interest income of 1.69 billion yuan in 2024, a significant increase of 44% year-on-year, attributed to improved investment trading capabilities [7] Market Performance and Shareholder Sentiment - The bank's stock price in the Hong Kong market has been underperforming, trading around 1.06 HKD per share, significantly lower than its initial listing price of 7.65 HKD in 2014, with liquidity issues evident as trading volumes dropped to zero during certain periods [15] - The number of H-share shareholders has dwindled to just 124, reflecting market skepticism regarding the bank's future profitability and growth prospects [15] Strategic Direction - Shengjing Bank is actively pursuing a "de-Evergrande" strategy, having removed references to Evergrande from its annual reports since 2023, and has undergone significant management restructuring to align with its vision of becoming a "good bank for enterprises and the public" [16][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Changsha Bank (601577.SH) with a current price of 9.39 CNY [1]. Core Views - Changsha Bank achieved an operating income of 25.936 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.827 billion CNY, up 4.9% year-on-year [4]. - The bank's loan growth remains robust, with a year-on-year increase of 12.6% in loans as of the end of Q1 2025, indicating strong credit demand [6]. - Non-interest income grew by 10% in Q1 2025, contributing 25% to total revenue, reflecting an improvement in the bank's revenue diversification [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Changsha Bank's operating income was 25.936 billion CNY, with a net profit of 7.827 billion CNY, and a return on equity (ROE) of 12.31% [4][28]. - For Q1 2025, the bank reported an operating income of 6.8 billion CNY and a net profit of 2.2 billion CNY, both showing a growth of 3.8% year-on-year [4]. Loan and Asset Growth - As of Q1 2025, the bank's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 11.3% and 12.6% year-on-year, respectively, with a significant increase in loan issuance [6]. - The total new loans for 2024 were 56.7 billion CNY, with Q1 2025 alone contributing 42.8 billion CNY, indicating a strong start to the year [6]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income for Q1 2025 reached 1.7 billion CNY, up 10% year-on-year, with net fees and commissions contributing significantly to this growth [9]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.17% at the end of 2024, with a coverage ratio of 312.8%, indicating strong risk management [10][24]. - The bank's credit impairment losses for Q1 2025 were 2.5 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase, but the overall asset quality remains solid [10]. Capital Adequacy - As of Q1 2025, the core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 9.7%, indicating a strong capital position despite the expansion of risk-weighted assets [10][27]. Valuation and Forecast - The report adjusts the EPS forecast for 2025 to 2.02 CNY, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 4.64 for 2025, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on the bank's growth potential and asset quality [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The Southwest region of China, comprising Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, Chongqing, and Tibet, is a significant driver of western development, with several listed banks reporting positive growth in assets and operating performance for 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Scale and Growth - Chengdu Bank is the only bank in the region to surpass 1 trillion yuan in total assets, reaching 1.25 trillion yuan with a growth rate of 14.56% [2][3]. - Chongqing Bank follows with total assets of 856.64 billion yuan, growing by 12.73% [3]. - Guizhou Bank's total assets exceeded 580 billion yuan, with the lowest growth rate among the five banks at 2.29% [3]. - Luzhou Bank and Yibin Bank have asset scales below 200 billion yuan, with Luzhou Bank at 171 billion yuan and Yibin Bank at 109.21 billion yuan [4][5]. Group 2: Operating Performance - All five banks reported increases in both operating income and net profit for 2024, with Guizhou Bank showing the highest revenue growth at 9.46% [6][7]. - Chengdu Bank led in revenue with 22.977 billion yuan, a 5.88% increase, although its growth rate has been declining in recent years [7]. - Chongqing Bank's revenue was 13.679 billion yuan, up 3.54%, with a notable increase in non-interest income [7][8]. - Luzhou Bank and Yibin Bank had revenues below 5.5 billion yuan, with Yibin Bank's revenue growth slowing significantly [8]. Group 3: Asset Quality - Chengdu Bank boasts the lowest non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at 0.66%, while Guizhou Bank has the highest at 1.72%, marking the only increase among the banks [10][11]. - The provision coverage ratio for Chengdu Bank is the highest in the region at 479.28%, indicating strong risk management [10][13]. - Luzhou Bank's NPL ratio decreased to 1.19%, while Chongqing Bank's NPL ratio fell to 1.25% [10][11]. - Yibin Bank's NPL ratio slightly decreased to 1.68%, but it still faces significant risks in certain sectors [11][13].

Core Insights - The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is a crucial intersection of the "Belt and Road" initiative and the Yangtze River Economic Belt, comprising Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui provinces, with seven listed city commercial banks [1] - In 2024, the total asset scale of these seven banks reached 17.72 trillion yuan, with Jiangsu Bank, Shanghai Bank, and Ningbo Bank each exceeding 3 trillion yuan [1][3] - All seven banks reported positive growth in revenue and net profit, with asset quality remaining strong, as six banks maintained non-performing loan ratios below 1% [1][18] Asset Scale and Growth - Jiangsu Bank's total assets reached 39,520.42 billion yuan, a 16.12% increase from the previous year [3][5] - Shanghai Bank's total assets were 32,266.56 billion yuan, growing by 4.57% [3][5] - Ningbo Bank's total assets amounted to 31,252.32 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 15.25% [3][5] - Nanjing Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Huishang Bank surpassed 20 trillion yuan in assets, while Suzhou Bank had the smallest asset scale at nearly 700 billion yuan [1][3] Revenue and Profitability - Jiangsu Bank led in revenue with 808.15 billion yuan, marking an 8.78% increase [10][12] - Ningbo Bank followed with 666.31 billion yuan in revenue, up 8.19% [10][12] - Nanjing Bank achieved a revenue growth rate of 11.32%, the only bank with double-digit growth [10][12] - Net profit for Jiangsu Bank exceeded 300 billion yuan, with a growth of 10.76% [13][12] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio for Jiangsu Bank was 0.89%, while Ningbo and Hangzhou Banks had the lowest at 0.76% [18][19] - Shanghai Bank had the highest non-performing loan ratio at 1.18% [17][18] - The provision coverage ratios for most banks were robust, with Jiangsu, Nanjing, and Ningbo Banks exceeding 300% [20][18] Loan Distribution - Jiangsu Bank's loans in Jiangsu province accounted for 86.13% of its total loans, with significant portions also allocated to the Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area [7] - Nanjing Bank's loans were primarily distributed in Jiangsu, with 84.92% of its loans in the province [7] - Huishang Bank's loans were predominantly in Anhui, making up 88.87% of its total [8]

一、 2024 年经营有所回稳，利润仍在低位 截至 2024 年末，渤海银行总资产达到 1.84 万亿元 ，同比增长 6.41% ；当年实现营业收入 254.82 亿元 ，同比增长 1.94% ，营业收入在连续三年下降后终于在 2024 年实现正增长；当年归母净利润为 52.56 亿元 ，同比增长 3.4% ， 归母净利润也在经历 2 年连续负增长后实现了增速归正 。 二、净息差股份行最低，收入利润增长靠金融投资 2024 年，渤海银行净息差为 1.31% ，虽较 2023 年上升了 17 个 BP ，但仍处于相对较低水平，且 在 12 家股份行中最低。 | 银行名称 | 净息差 | 净利差 | | --- | --- | --- | | 招商银行 | 1. 98% | 1.86% | | 平安银行 | 1. 87% | 1. 83% | | 兴业银行 | 1. 82% | 1.56% | | 中信银行 | 1. 77% | 1. 71% | | 浙商银行 | 1. 71% | 1.52% | | 华夏银行 | 1.59% | 1. 61% | | 光大银行 | 1.54% | 1. 45% | | 广发银行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall operating conditions of the six major state-owned banks show a steady trend, with a decrease in the overall non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and a maintained provision coverage ratio at a safe level, indicating an improvement in asset quality. However, there are underlying concerns, such as the rising balance of special mention loans and the increasing individual loan NPL ratio, which presents challenges for future asset quality control [1][2][3]. Group 1: Asset Quality Indicators - The NPL ratio of the six major banks is trending downwards and remains below the regulatory red line of 5%. Specific NPL ratios include: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) at 1.34% (down 2 basis points), Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) at 1.30% (down 3 basis points), Bank of China (BOC) at 1.25% (down 2 basis points), China Construction Bank (CCB) at 1.34% (down 3 basis points), and Bank of Communications (BoCom) at 1.31% (down 2 basis points). Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) saw a slight increase of 7 basis points to 0.90%, still the lowest among the six banks [2]. - The provision coverage ratio for all six banks significantly exceeds the regulatory red line of 150%, ranging from 200% to 300%. ICBC (214.97%), BOC (200.60%), and BoCom (201.94%) showed increases compared to the previous year, while ABC and CCB experienced slight declines, with PSBC seeing the largest drop of 61.42 percentage points, yet still maintaining a high absolute value [3]. - The balance of special mention loans has increased for five of the six banks, indicating a potential risk of these loans converting into NPLs. The increases in special mention loans are as follows: ICBC up by 91.5 billion yuan, PSBC up by 29.3 billion yuan, ABC up by 27.5 billion yuan, BOC up by 26.2 billion yuan, and BoCom up by 10.7 billion yuan [3][4]. Group 2: Individual Loan NPL Trends - The individual loan NPL ratio has been quietly rising, with the total amount of personal NPLs increasing significantly. In 2024, the personal NPL amounts increased by 109 billion yuan for PSBC, 301 billion yuan for CCB, 421 billion yuan for ICBC, 143 billion yuan for BOC, 320 billion yuan for ABC, and 97 billion yuan for BoCom, totaling nearly 1.4 trillion yuan [6]. - The individual loan NPL ratios have also risen across the board, with ICBC's ratio increasing from 0.70% to 1.15% (up 0.45 percentage points), CCB from 0.66% to 0.98% (up 0.32 percentage points), ABC from 0.73% to 1.03% (up 0.30 percentage points), BoCom from 0.81% to 1.08% (up 0.27 percentage points), and PSBC from 1.12% to 1.28% (up 0.16 percentage points) [6][7]. - Notably, personal operating loans, primarily aimed at small and micro business owners, have seen a significant increase in NPL ratios, with ICBC's ratio rising from 0.86% to 1.27%, ABC from 0.93% to 1.39%, and CCB from 0.95% to 1.59% [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategies - In response to the rising risks in retail loans, banks are implementing various strategies. CCB plans to strengthen risk control throughout the retail loan process, while ABC emphasizes strict entry standards for inclusive retail business and optimizing the risk control system. BOC aims to enhance proactive risk management and post-loan management, and ICBC focuses on optimizing business entry and bad debt disposal processes. BoCom intends to balance business development with risk control to maintain retail loan quality within expected ranges [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Chinese bank stocks improved in Q4 2024, with a preference for the four major state-owned banks due to their lower risk exposure to non-housing retail loans and less impact from fixed income market fluctuations [1][6]. Group 1: Profitability and Growth - In Q4 2024, operating profit and profit growth accelerated to 6.8% and 2.5% year-on-year, respectively, driven by a reduced narrowing of net interest margin (NIM) and strong growth in non-interest income [2]. - Non-interest income grew by 10% year-on-year in Q4, primarily due to investment income, while fee income remained flat with a decline of 3% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Asset Quality - Retail loan non-performing loan (NPL) ratio increased by 18 basis points year-on-year, while corporate loan NPL ratio decreased by 15 basis points [3]. - The proportion of retail loans in the loan portfolio decreased from approximately 34% in 2023 to about 33% in 2024, with the overall NPL ratio declining from 90% in 2023 to 81% in 2024 [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - For FY 2025, revenue growth is expected to moderately improve compared to FY 2024, with a smaller narrowing of NIM anticipated despite a further expected decrease in loan market quotation rates (LPR) [4]. - Fee income is expected to improve in 2025 as capital market and consumer-related fees recover, although retail asset quality may continue to deteriorate [4]. Group 4: Preferred and Avoided Stocks - The preferred order of banks is the four major state-owned banks > China Merchants Bank > CITIC Bank > other banks, with China Construction Bank being the top pick due to stable earnings and a strong balance sheet [6]. - The banks to avoid include Ping An Bank, Minsheng Bank, and Postal Savings Bank of China due to their higher risk exposure to non-housing retail loans and significant asset quality risks [6].