伊朗国家安全议会委员会成员：关于霍尔木兹海峡的军事协议已敲定，尚未决定关闭海峡。 跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, trading in the shipping market is challenging. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Situation - Trump plans to impose a unified tariff of 15% or 20% on almost all remaining trading partners, targeting Southeast Asian countries to crack down on re - export trade. The tariff negotiation date has been postponed to August 1st, and some shipping companies have announced freight rate increases. The spot market price range is set, with small price hikes to test the market, leading to a slight rebound in the market [2][4]. - The cease - fire in Gaza cannot be reached immediately, and the Houthi rebels continue to attack Israeli - related ships. Spot freight rates are stable, and the market is filled with mixed long and short information, causing the market to fluctuate widely [2]. - On July 11, the main contract 2508 closed at 2030.6, down 0.71%, with a trading volume of 34,600 lots and an open interest of 30,900 lots, a decrease of 403 lots from the previous day [2]. Freight Rate Index - On July 7, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2258.04 points, up 6.3% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1557.77 points, down 3.8% from the previous period [1]. - On July 11, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1218.03 points, down 3.19% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1435.21 points, down 0.50% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1186.59 points, up 0.85% from the previous period [1]. - On July 11, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1733.29 points, down 30.20 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 2099 USD/TEU, down 0.10% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2194 USD/FEU, up 5.03% from the previous period [1]. - On July 11, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1313.70 points, down 2.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1726.41 points, up 1.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 1027.49 points, down 5.2% from the previous period [1]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4, with an expected value of 49.8 and a previous value of 49.4. The preliminary value of the service PMI was 50, a two - month high, with an expected value of 50 and a previous value of 49.7. The preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2, with an expected value of 50.5 and a previous value of 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2, with an expected value of - 6 and a previous value of - 8.1 [1]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, the same as in April, and back above the critical point [1]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the same as in May, higher than the expected value of 51, the highest level since February; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.1, lower than the previous value of 53.7, higher than the expected value of 52.9, a two - month low; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 52.8, lower than the previous value of 53, higher than the expected value of 52.1, a two - month low [1]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market is likely to rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take a light long position below 1300 for the 2510 contract (already with a profit margin of over 100 points). Consider partial profit - taking when the market rallies today. For the EC2512 contract, a light short position is recommended above 1650, with stop - loss and take - profit levels set [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international instability, the market shows a positive - spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or take a light - position attempt [3]. - Long - term strategy: For all contracts, take profit when the price rallies, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [3]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%. - The company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [3].

Group 1: Gaza Conflict - The Israeli military confirmed a missile launched from Yemen targeting Israel, with defense systems in operation to intercept the threat [1] - An Israeli senior official stated that a ceasefire agreement with Hamas in Gaza could be achieved within one to two weeks, but not within a day, and that Israel would provide a temporary ceasefire while continuing military actions if Hamas does not disarm [1] - The Palestinian President emphasized the need for Palestinian representation at the ceasefire negotiation table [1] - The Houthi forces from Yemen attacked Israel's Ben Gurion Airport [1] - Houthi forces reportedly seized six Greek sailors from a sunken ship that was attacked in the Red Sea [1] - Houthi leadership declared that maritime actions against vessels would continue as long as Israel persists in its "aggression" in Gaza [1] - Houthi forces claimed to have launched 45 attacks on Israeli-related targets in the past week [1] - A UN spokesperson announced the first fuel shipment to Gaza in 130 days [1] Group 2: Iran-Israel Conflict - Israeli officials reported that some of Iran's enriched uranium survived the US-Israel airstrikes [2] - The Israeli Defense Minister warned that Israel would take further action against Iran if it perceives a threat [2] - Israeli intelligence indicated that prior to attacks on Iran, enriched uranium was stored at locations such as Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, with some still remaining there, making removal difficult [2] - The German Foreign Minister anticipated that Iran would exert pressure on Houthi forces to cease attacks on vessels [2] - The Iranian President stated that Tehran's cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency depends on the agency correcting its "double standards" regarding Iran's nuclear issues, warning of a more decisive response to repeated aggression [2] - The EU and Israel reached an agreement to provide more aid to Gaza [2] - According to Politico, the EU is considering suspending relations with Israel due to the ongoing crisis in Gaza [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The egg futures price is falling. Due to high inventory of laying hens, increased supply of small - sized eggs, and weak demand in summer, the egg price is expected to remain low in the first half of July, but the decline is limited [3]. - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level oscillations. Gold is expected to rise in the long - term, and it's advisable to buy at low prices when it reaches important support levels. Iron ore has a high over - valuation risk, and a wide - range oscillation approach is recommended. Glass market needs real estate stimulus or major policies, and a shock approach is appropriate. Soybean oil may oscillate or strengthen in the short - term, and short - selling with a light position is advised when it reaches the previous high pressure area [7][11][15][19][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Egg Futures - Supply: High inventory of laying hens, increasing number of newly - laid hens, and increased supply of small - sized eggs lead to large supply pressure, and the pressure is hard to relieve soon [3]. - Demand: Summer is the off - season for egg consumption. School holidays reduce canteen purchases, and overall demand is weak and hard to change in the short - term. However, low prices may stimulate supermarket promotions and trader restocking [3]. - Price Outlook: Affected by the leap June, the egg price will remain low in the first half of July. The low - price area has delivery and cold - storage stocking, limiting the decline. Observe the strong support area of 3370 - 3350 for the main egg futures contract [3]. A - share Market - Market Performance: On Monday, the three major A - share indexes opened high and closed low, with only the Shanghai Composite Index closing in the positive territory above 3470 points. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [8][7]. Gold - Market Factors: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates reduces the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing gold to adjust. But the long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and it's advisable to buy at low prices when it reaches important support levels [12][11]. Iron Ore - Market Situation: Supply is rising month - on - month, iron - water production is seasonally weakening, and ports are accumulating inventory again. The weak reality increases the over - valuation risk of iron ore. Technically, it shows a trend of rising and then falling, and a wide - range oscillation approach is recommended [16][15]. Glass - Supply and Demand: There is no major cold - repair situation due to losses on the supply side, factory inventory is high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking power, so demand is not continuously increasing. It needs real estate stimulus or major policies. Technically, it has been adjusting at a high level for three days, and a shock approach is appropriate [20][19]. Soybean Oil - Market Trend: Due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation, soybean oil may oscillate or strengthen in the short - term. But the current supply - demand is not tight, and it will see seasonal production and inventory increase in the medium - term. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 7950 - 8000, short - selling with a light position is advised [23].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3473.13, with a slight increase of 0.02% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10435.51, down by 0.70% [2] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3965.17, decreasing by 0.43% [2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2130.19, down by 1.21% [2] - The STAR 50 Index closed at 978.29, with a decline of 0.66% [2] - The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index closed at 1401.92, down by 0.93% [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Comprehensive (+2.57%), Utilities (+1.87%), Real Estate (+1.68%), Light Industry Manufacturing (+1.52%), and Environmental Protection (+1.10%) [3] - The worst-performing sectors were Coal (-2.04%), Pharmaceutical Biology (-0.97%), Communication (-0.77%), Home Appliances (-0.70%), and Electronics (-0.67%) [3] Concept Index Performance - The leading concept indices were Shipbuilding System (+5.23%), Biomass Power Generation (+2.83%), Virtual Power Plant (+2.62%), Cross-Border Payment (+2.36%), and Pumped Storage (+2.26%) [3] - The lagging concept indices included Recombinant Protein (-1.42%), Weight Loss Drugs (-1.10%), CRO Concept (-1.07%), AI PC (-1.02%), and AI Mobile Phones (-0.99%) [3] Market Outlook - The market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index managing to close slightly positive while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices closed lower [5] - The report suggests that as the mid-year earnings forecasts and reports are released, the impact of earnings on individual stock performance will become significant [5] - Attention is expected to shift towards domestic policies, US-China tariffs, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the upcoming Political Bureau meeting being a key observation point [5] - Recommended sectors for attention include Non-ferrous Metals, Banking, Transportation, and Utilities [5]

Group 1: Gaza Conflict - The first round of ceasefire negotiations in Gaza ended without consensus [2] - The Israeli Defense Minister stated that they are about to control 70% of the Gaza Strip [2] - Israel plans to establish a "humanitarian city" in Rafah to concentrate all Gaza residents [2] Group 2: Regional Military Actions - The Houthis in Yemen claimed to have launched 11 ballistic missiles and drones towards Israel [2] - The Houthis also reported an attack on the "Magic Seas" cargo ship in the Red Sea, which is currently sunk [2] - Approximately 20 aircraft dropped over 50 munitions in an Israeli nighttime attack on Houthi energy facilities [2] Group 3: Iran-Israel Relations - Iran reported that the death toll from the war with Israel has reached 1,060 [2] - The Iranian President stated that the masterminds behind the assassination plot against him are not the U.S. but Israel [2] - The Israeli central bank governor indicated that the direct costs of the war with Iran account for about 1% of the GDP [2] Group 4: U.S. Involvement - The U.S. State Department's measure to remove the Syrian Liberation Organization (HTS) from the terrorist list will take effect on July 8 [2] - Trump expressed optimism to Netanyahu about reaching an agreement between Israel and Hamas "this week" [2] - Sources suggest that Israel is assessing whether Trump may greenlight new military actions against Iran [2] Group 5: International Relations - Russia's Foreign Minister stated that Russia is prepared to provide Iran with sufficient enriched uranium for its peaceful nuclear program [2]

Group 1: Gaza Conflict - Israel and Hamas are set to negotiate on Sunday, with Hamas's demands deemed "unacceptable" [1] - The Gaza Health Ministry reports 80 deaths and 304 injuries in the last 24 hours, bringing total casualties since October 7, 2023, to 57,418 dead and 136,261 injured [1] - Indirect ceasefire negotiations for Gaza have resumed in Doha, Qatar [1] Group 2: Regional Military Actions - The Israeli Defense Minister announced military strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, including ports and power plants [2] - Ben Gurion Airport in Israel is indefinitely closed due to missile attacks from Yemen [2] Group 3: International Diplomacy - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov met with Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi, reaffirming Moscow's willingness to assist in resolving disputes over Tehran's nuclear program [3] - Trump stated he will discuss a permanent agreement with Iran with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu [3] - Trump also mentioned a significant opportunity to reach a ceasefire agreement with Hamas this week [3] Group 4: Hezbollah and Maritime Incidents - Hezbollah leader declared the group's commitment to resist Israel and maintain its armament [4] - A commercial ship was attacked near the port of Hodeidah, Yemen, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations Office [4] - The Israeli military reported strikes against Hezbollah targets in southern and eastern Lebanon [4]

金十数据整理：中东局势跟踪（7月6日） 加沙冲突： 1. 美国总统特朗普表示，下周可能达成加沙地区的协议。 1. 特朗普：伊朗没有同意对其核项目进行检查，也没有同意放弃浓缩铀活动。 2. 加沙卫生部：自2023年10月7日以来，以色列进攻造成的死亡人数已上升至57,338人，受伤人数 135,957人。 2. 英国政府14年来首次对叙利亚进行部长级访问，与叙利亚重新建立外交关系。 3. 据法新社援引官方消息人士：以色列尚未就哈马斯对停火提议的回应做出决定。 其他： 4. 据以色列第12频道：以色列将派代表团前往卡塔尔就可能的加沙协议进行会谈。 伊以冲突： 1. 美国总统特朗普表示将与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡就伊朗问题进行讨论。伊朗的核计划已被永久性地阻 止，但他们可能会在不同地点重新启动。 2. 哈梅内伊高级顾问：伊朗坚定捍卫和平利用核能的权利。 ...

Core Point - The first international flight since the outbreak of the Israel-Iran conflict has landed in Tehran, indicating a gradual normalization of Iran's airspace operations [1] Group 1: Flight Operations - FlyDubai's flight FZ1930 from the UAE has successfully landed at Imam Khomeini Airport, marking the resumption of international flights to Iran [1] - Iranian airports, except for Isfahan and Tabriz, have reopened for both domestic and international flights, with the airspace also open for international transit flights [1]

Group 1 - The core discussion between Presidents Putin and Trump included bilateral relations, the Ukraine issue, and the situation in the Middle East, with a focus on diplomatic solutions [1] - The call lasted nearly one hour and was described as "frank, pragmatic, and specific" by Russian presidential aide Ushakov [1] - Both leaders agreed to maintain communication through diplomatic channels and discussed the humanitarian agreements reached in the second round of direct Russia-Ukraine negotiations held in Istanbul [1] Group 2 - Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the lack of progress made during the call, despite it being lengthy [2] - The possibility of a future meeting between the two leaders was not discussed, although Ushakov indicated that the idea is being considered for future consensus [1]