Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 17.0 HKD based on a 7x P/E ratio for 2025 [4][10][12]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in the aluminum industry, with a comprehensive integrated business model that includes power generation, mining, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum processing, establishing a strong profit moat [8][10]. - The company has a high dividend payout history, with a cumulative cash dividend of 524.9 billion CNY since its listing in 2011, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [8][40]. - The company is strategically positioned with a robust supply chain, including self-sufficient alumina production and a high self-supply rate of electricity, which contributes to a competitive cost structure [8][10][60]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established itself as a leading aluminum producer with a total alumina capacity of 21 million tons and an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 646,000 tons as of 2024 [8][45]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the Zhang family controlling 65.53% of the equity, ensuring long-term strategic planning [22][24]. Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of 156.17 billion CNY for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.7%, and a net profit of 22.37 billion CNY, reflecting a significant increase of 95.2% [4][25]. - The company’s operating income has grown from 84.18 billion CNY in 2019 to 133.62 billion CNY in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 12% [25][27]. Production and Cost Structure - The company has a self-sufficient alumina production rate exceeding 160%, which stabilizes the cost of aluminum production [2][8]. - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum production in 2024 is projected to be 13,232 CNY per ton, which is among the lowest in the industry [8][10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its footprint in the aluminum recycling and processing sectors, with plans to establish a joint venture for recycling 50,000 tons of aluminum per year [2][10]. - The company is also involved in the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which is expected to enhance its earnings starting in 2026 [9][10]. Market Position - The company maintains a leading position in the electrolytic aluminum market, with a production capacity utilization rate close to 100% as of 2024 [46][49]. - The company’s electrolytic aluminum sales volume is expected to reach 583.7 million tons in 2025, reflecting a stable growth trajectory [11][55].

Core Viewpoint - Guolian Aquatic Development Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 3.409 billion yuan for 2024 and 813 million yuan for Q1 2025, with a net profit of 6.0284 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 71.62% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 3.409 billion yuan [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 813 million yuan and a net profit of 6.0284 million yuan, marking a 71.62% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The aquatic industry faced challenges due to a weak global economic recovery, intense competition in the downstream consumer market, and declining prices in the South American white shrimp market [1] - Despite these challenges, the company is committed to a long-term strategy focusing on food safety as a core aspect of its development [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a "big product strategy" with a focus on three major products that account for over 30%, 20%, and 10% of sales, respectively [1] - Guolian Aquatic is enhancing its dual circulation strategy and promoting all-channel marketing to support rural revitalization and empower farmers [1] Group 4: Food Safety and Quality Management - The company emphasizes food safety, holding various international certifications and implementing a comprehensive traceability system across the entire supply chain [2] - All products undergo low-temperature cold chain transportation and storage, ensuring health and safety from source to table [2] Group 5: Future Outlook - For 2025, the company plans to focus on core products, deepen channel networks, strengthen brand value, and enhance research and development capabilities [2]