上 市 公 司 非银金融 2025 年 08 月 28 日 新华保险 (601336) ——资、负两端均超预期，股票配置规模提升 299 亿元 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： 2025 年 08 月 28 日 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 64.69 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 68.68/30.13 | | 市净率 | 2.5 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 3.91 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 134,907 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,843.60/12,571.37 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 26.73 | | 资产负债率% | 95.44 | | 总股本/流通 A 股(百万) | 3,120/2,085 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/1,034 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-28 09-28 10-28 11-28 12-28 01-28 02-28 ...

保险行业 超配（维持） 负债端转型提速，资产端乘势慢牛 保险行业深度报告 2025 年 8 月 28 日 投资要点： ◼ 行情复盘：年初至今A股险企实现全线上涨。今年年初至8月15日，保险 板块行情呈现波动上涨的特征，申万保险指数上涨17.88%，跑赢沪深300 指数7.88个百分点，A股险企实现全线上涨。保险行情主要由负债端压 力缓解、政策红利释放以及板块强β属性推动。 ◼ 负债端：险企全面转型分红险，看好银保业务增长潜力。在产品切换维 度，预定利率下调加速分红险转型进程，险资全面聚焦分红险布局，助 力险企稳定保费规模、优化负债成本。渠道结构维度，代理人规模继续 收缩，行业聚焦队伍质态提升，推动代理人渠道向精英化、专业化转型， 强化高价值业务深耕能力。与此同时，银保渠道废止"一对三"合作限 制，市场竞争充分化，头部险企加速布局银行网点资源，逐步复苏，凭 借银行网点资源、客户触达优势，成为险企保费增长新引擎，为规模与 价值增长注入动力。 ◼ 资产端："慢牛"渐成共识，险资权益收益弹性释放资产端："慢牛" 渐成共识，险资权益收益弹性释放。保险资金规模快速增长，在"慢牛" 行情与中长期入市政策推动下，权益投资比例 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the transformation of life insurance companies towards dividend insurance is expected to alleviate rigid liability cost pressures and enhance net profit and net asset stability [1][2] - The low interest rate environment has made traditional insurance product strategies unsustainable, leading to a shift towards dividend insurance products that can lock in returns [1][2] - The transition to dividend insurance requires collaboration across channels, products, and investments, with a focus on improving the asset-liability management [1][3] Group 2 - The sales of dividend insurance products are expected to increase significantly in 2025, which will help reduce rigid liability costs under new accounting standards [2] - The transformation towards dividend insurance is anticipated to be firm across insurance companies, driven by regulatory guidance to lower liability costs [3] - The importance of asset-liability management is increasing, with thin-margin VFA policies potentially negatively impacting profitability [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its liability side in Q2, with further allocation towards equity investments [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for H1 2025 reached 40.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, although the growth rate has slowed compared to Q1 [4] - The company plans a mid-term dividend of 6.73 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.0% and accounting for 37% of the total dividends for 2024 [4] - The forecast for new business value (NBV) is expected to grow by 15.0%, 10.0%, and 10.0% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Financial Performance Summary - Total premium income for H1 2025 was 525.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, with new single premium income at 161.2 billion yuan, up 0.6% [5] - The NBV reached 28.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.3%, significantly better than the 4.5% growth in Q1 [5] - The company's investment assets totaled 7.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.8% from the end of 2024 and 17.1% year-on-year [6] - The net investment income for H1 2025 was 96.1 billion yuan, with a net investment yield of 2.78%, down 0.25 percentage points year-on-year [6] Valuation Metrics - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is 113.78 billion yuan, with an expected year-on-year growth of 6.4% [7] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2025 is projected to be 1.98, decreasing to 1.41 by 2027 [7] - The embedded value (EV) is expected to grow from 1.53 trillion yuan in 2025 to 1.83 trillion yuan in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 9.3% [7]

郭晓涛表示："在今年即将到来的预定利率下调之后，下半年分红险的占比将持续提升。平安分红险的 结算利率在市场上具备相当的竞争力。这一优势的背后，正是来自投资端所产生的回报，再结合我们的 保障服务与增值服务，我对分红险的转型充满信心。" 北京商报讯（记者 李秀梅）8月27日，中国平安召开2025年中期业绩发布会。谈及分红险转型，中国平 安联席首席执行官郭晓涛表示，分红险是行业未来的发展趋势。从今年上半年市场表现来看，整个行业 确实都在向分红险方向转型。对平安集团而言，今年上半年分红险已占据新单价值的40%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Sunshine Insurance reported a total premium income of 80.81 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved an insurance service income of 32.44 billion yuan in H1 2025, up 3.0% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.39 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.8% [1][2] - Total investment income for H1 2025 was 10.7 billion yuan, an increase of 28.5% year-on-year [2] - The annualized net, total, and comprehensive investment returns were 3.8%, 4.0%, and 5.1%, showing slight variations compared to the previous year [2] Group 2: New Business Value (NBV) and Product Transformation - Sunshine Life achieved a NBV of 4.01 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a comparable year-on-year increase of 47.3% [1] - The NBV margin improved by 7.2 percentage points to 21.1% [1] - New single premium income decreased by 3.0% to 19.01 billion yuan [1] - The individual insurance channel's NBV grew by 23.6%, with a margin increase of 10.1 percentage points to 35.7% [1] - The bancassurance channel's NBV surged by 53.0%, with a margin of 19.0%, up 7.2 percentage points [1] Group 3: Underwriting Profitability - Sunshine Property achieved original premium income of 25.27 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [1] - The combined ratio (COR) improved to 98.8%, reflecting a year-on-year improvement of 0.3 percentage points [1] - Underwriting profit increased by 42.4% to 290 million yuan [1] - The COR for auto insurance and non-auto insurance was 98.1% and 99.7%, respectively, with improvements of 1.6 and 1.2 percentage points [1] Group 4: Asset and Equity Position - The company's embedded value (EV) reached 128.49 billion yuan as of H1 2025, an increase of 11.0% from the end of 2024 [2] - The life insurance EV was 106.20 billion yuan, up 13.8% from the end of 2024 [2] - The net assets attributable to shareholders were 55.84 billion yuan, down 10.1% from the end of 2024, potentially due to accounting measurement methods [2] Group 5: Future Outlook - The company expects insurance service income for 2025-2027 to be 67.9 billion, 73.5 billion, and 80.4 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.2%, 8.1%, and 9.5% respectively [2] - Projected net profit for the same period is 5.9 billion, 6.3 billion, and 6.7 billion yuan, with growth rates of 8.2%, 7.2%, and 6.0% respectively [2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its commitment to value development and expected stable growth in dividends per share [2]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is preparing for a significant shift in product pricing and interest rates, with a transition to a new regulatory environment that will see the maximum guaranteed interest rate for life insurance products drop to 1.99% by August 31, 2025, prompting a rush among agents and companies to adjust their offerings and client strategies [1][6][7]. Group 1: Industry Response to Rate Changes - Insurance agents are actively engaging with clients to discuss the implications of the upcoming product changes, emphasizing the urgency due to anticipated price increases [2][3]. - Major insurance platforms are notifying users about the upcoming delisting of numerous products, with hundreds expected to be affected, including various types of life and health insurance [3][4]. - Insurance companies are mobilizing their product and IT departments to ensure compliance with the new regulations and to facilitate a smooth transition to new products [4][5]. Group 2: New Product Development - Several insurance firms, including joint ventures like Tongfang Global Life and Zhongyi Life, have already launched new dividend-based life insurance products with a guaranteed interest rate of 1.5% to adapt to the low-interest environment [6][7]. - The shift away from traditional guaranteed interest rate products, which have dominated the market, is expected to lead to a rise in the popularity of dividend insurance products, which offer more attractive returns in the current economic climate [6][7]. - Analysts predict that the transition to dividend insurance will alleviate some of the financial pressures on insurance companies, as these products provide a more flexible return structure compared to traditional fixed-rate offerings [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [6][14]. Core Views - The company reported a total premium income of 80.81 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. The insurance service income was 32.44 billion yuan, up 3.0% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.39 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.8% increase year-on-year. The report expresses optimism about the company's future investment value due to its commitment to value development and the expected steady growth of dividends per share (DPS) [4][12][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 3.39 billion yuan, up 7.8% year-on-year, driven by both asset and liability sides. The total investment income reached 10.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%. The annualized net, total, and comprehensive investment returns were 3.8%, 4.0%, and 5.1%, respectively [12][13]. Business Segments - The life insurance segment, Sunshine Life, reported a new business value (NBV) of 4.01 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 47.3%, primarily due to an improvement in NBV margin, which rose by 7.2 percentage points to 21.1%. The new single premium decreased by 3.0% to 19.01 billion yuan [12][13]. - Sunshine Property Insurance achieved original premium income of 25.27 billion yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year, with a combined ratio (COR) of 98.8%, improving by 0.3 percentage points. The underwriting profit increased by 42.4% to 290 million yuan [12][13]. Future Projections - The company expects insurance service income for 2025 to be 67.95 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 5.89 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year increase [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in A-share market is primarily driven by long-term capital from insurance companies, despite a decrease in the preset interest rates for life insurance products, indicating a shift in investment strategies within the insurance sector [1][2]. Summary by Sections Insurance Product Rate Adjustments - The preset interest rate for ordinary life insurance products has been adjusted down to 1.99% from 2.13%, a decrease of 14 basis points [2]. - The maximum preset rates for various insurance products will change: ordinary life insurance from 2.5% to 2.0%, participating insurance from 2.0% to 1.75%, and universal insurance from 1.5% to 1.0%, effective August 31 [2][3]. Competitive Landscape of Insurance Products - The upcoming adjustments will disrupt the previous 50 basis points gap between ordinary, participating, and universal insurance products, enhancing the competitive edge of participating insurance [3]. - Regulatory support for participating insurance products is evident, reflecting a strategic shift towards these offerings [3][5]. Industry Transformation and Risk Management - The life insurance industry is accelerating its transition towards participating insurance, which helps mitigate interest rate risk and provides greater flexibility for investment strategies [4]. - The traditional profit model based on interest rate spreads is under pressure due to declining market rates, prompting insurers to adapt by focusing on participating insurance [4][6]. Policy Support and Investment Strategy - Recent regulatory guidance encourages the development of long-term participating insurance products, aligning with the industry's transformation [5]. - The lower preset interest rates will reduce liability costs, allowing insurance companies to optimize their asset allocation towards equities and high-dividend sectors, enhancing potential long-term returns [7][8]. Market Dynamics and Investment Trends - The insurance sector is experiencing a significant increase in equity allocation, with insurance funds' investment in stocks and securities rising to 4.46 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.8% of total investments [7]. - The shift towards equity investments is driven by a combination of low interest rates, regulatory changes, and the need for better returns in a challenging market environment [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent comprehensive reduction in the predetermined interest rates for life insurance products is leading to a wave of product discontinuations in the market, with companies proactively switching to lower-rate products to optimize their liabilities [1][2][3] Group 1: Product Discontinuation - Many insurance products have been discontinued recently, with some experiencing "lightning" stoppages, such as a dividend-type life insurance with a guaranteed rate of 2.0% being pulled from the market within two hours of notification [2] - Several insurance companies have announced the discontinuation of multiple products and adjustments to the maximum predetermined interest rates for new products, with ordinary insurance products set at 2.0%, dividend products at 1.75%, and universal insurance products at 1.0% [2] - The recent adjustment in predetermined interest rates has triggered a regulatory mechanism requiring insurance companies to lower the maximum rates for new products and complete the transition from old to new products within two months [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current market environment is relatively calm compared to previous instances of interest rate reductions, with fewer signs of speculative behavior around product discontinuation [3] - Regulatory measures have been strictly enforced to control sales misguidance, contributing to a more rational consumer behavior and reducing anxiety around product discontinuation [3] Group 3: Product Strategy - Insurance companies are actively launching new products with lower predetermined interest rates while promoting dividend-type insurance products, which are seen as advantageous in the current environment [4][5] - The asymmetric strategy in rate adjustments favors dividend products, which have a guaranteed rate of 1.75% plus floating returns, potentially offering higher actual returns compared to traditional products [4] - The risk-sharing mechanism of dividend products helps insurance companies reduce rigid costs and alleviates pressure from interest rate differentials, allowing for greater investment flexibility [5] Group 4: Diversification Opportunities - While dividend products are currently favored, there is a call for insurance companies to avoid product homogeneity and consider diversification to mitigate excessive competition [5] - Potential areas for diversification include health insurance products that align with aging demographics, integration with the pension industry, and developing specialized insurance products in collaboration with public resources [5]