火电无忧：7-8 月电价涨幅或大于煤价 [Table_Industry] 公用事业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [table_Authors] 本报告导读： 电价煤价都有上涨可能，但我们认为煤机电价上涨空间会大于煤价。今年下半年或 将终结"过去两年下半年电力板块往往下跌"的现象。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 业 双 周 报 报 告 股票研究 / [2025.07.07 Table_Date] 2025-07-08 [Table_Summary] 风格再变，煤价反弹，需关注电价反弹幅度或超煤价。上周（6.30- 7.4）电力开始上涨，银行涨幅更大，上周 wind 银行上涨 3.8%，wind 电力上涨 1.9%，wind 煤炭上涨 1.5%，高股息回归强势，我们认为， 电力上涨风格仍然是主因，恰似上周五的下跌。近几周天气都很极 端，暴雨+急热，来水增加的同时，火电需求也将增加，但电厂煤炭 库存有加速上涨迹象，下周全国都将偏热，电价煤价都有上涨可能， 但我们认为煤机电价上涨空间会大于煤价。今年下半年或将终结"过 去两年下半年电力板块往往下跌"的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trend of decreasing business loan interest rates is emerging, similar to the previous competition in consumer loan rates, with some banks offering rates below 3% and even as low as 2.15% for secured loans [1][2][3]. Group 1: Current Interest Rate Trends - Many banks, including state-owned and joint-stock banks, are now offering business loan rates below 3%, with some products like "mortgage quick loans" available at rates as low as 2.60% [2]. - In regions outside Guangdong, such as Sichuan, banks are also offering competitive rates, with one bank providing a 1-year mortgage-backed business loan at 2.15% for high-quality collateral [2]. - Some larger banks maintain higher rates, with one reporting a pure credit business loan rate of 3.6% and a secured loan rate around 3% [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Rate Changes - The decline in business loan rates is attributed to insufficient credit demand from economic entities and policy initiatives aimed at reducing financing costs for the real economy [1][7]. - The People's Bank of China has reported a slowdown in the growth of short-term and medium-term business loans, indicating a decrease in demand [8]. Group 3: Implications for Banks - Lower business loan rates may compress net interest margins and reduce banks' profitability, particularly affecting smaller banks more than larger ones due to their reliance on interest income [9][10]. - Experts suggest that banks should innovate financial products and focus on effective market demand to balance business expansion and asset quality [9][10].

近期，我国多地出现高温闷热天气，叠加经济增长双重拉动，各地电力负荷快速攀升。7月4日，全国最 大电力负荷达到14.65亿千瓦，较6月底上升约2亿千瓦，较去年同期增长近1.5亿千瓦，创下历史新高。 对此，国家能源局相关负责人表示，目前全国电力供应总体平稳有序。不久前，国家发展改革委政策研 究室副主任李超也公开回应称，今年迎峰度夏电力供需形势好于去年，全国电力供需平衡总体有保障。 一边是电力需求创新高，一边是电力供应总体平稳有序，不少网友好奇，这背后靠的是什么？ 首先是持续提升的发电能力。虽然去年我国新能源装机规模首次超过了煤电装机，但从当前的发电量和 调峰能力来看，煤电依然是迎峰度夏期间保障电力供应的"压舱石"。中国电力企业联合会(以下简称"中 电联")的数据显示，截至6月26日，纳入中电联电力行业燃料统计的燃煤电厂煤炭库存超过1.2亿吨，较 去年同期增加181万吨，库存可用天数较上年同期提高了1.7天。 从发电装机总量上看，电力供应也是有保障的。截至今年5月底，全国累计发电装机容量达36.1亿千 瓦，同比增长18.8%。今年前5个月，全国主要发电企业电源工程完成投资2578亿元，呈增长态势。电 力供应越来越足 ...

一、证券市场回顾 南财金融终端数据显示，昨日(7月7日,下同)上证综指日内上涨0.02%，收于3473.13点，最高3474.8点；深证成指日内下跌0.7%，收于10435.51点，最高 10501.31点；创业板指日内下跌1.21%，收于2130.19点，最高2155.69点。 | 类别 | 代码 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票型 | 159611.SZ | 广发 | | 股票型 | 561560.SH | 华泰彬 | | 股票型 | 560580.SH | 南方 | | 股票型 | 515060.SH | | | 股票型 | 562960.SH | | | 股票型 | 562550.SH | | | 股票型 | 159669.SZ | | | 股票型 | 561170.SH | | | 股票型 | 562350.SH | 银华 | | 股票型 | 159707.SZ | | 昨日股票型ETF跌幅最大的3只ETF及其收益率分别为：华泰柏瑞中证沪港深创新药产业ETF(-2.21%)、摩根中证创新药产业ETF(-2.15%)、工银瑞信中证创 新药产业ETF(-2.13%)。跌幅前10详 ...

南方区域电力市场正式转入连续结算试运行阶段，从之前只是按周、按月等短期开展交易变成可以每天 不间断交易，双方根据需求随时跨省区买卖电力。 核心亮点：22万市场主体、日交易38亿度，关注电力交易多元化主体资产重估可能。此次启动连续结算 试运行后，南方区域电力市场同步实现广东、广西、云南、贵州、海南五省区电力现货市场全覆盖，22 万市场主体同台竞价，市场将释放更真实、更稳定的价格信号。标志着中国电力市场化改革迈入"自由 交易"的新纪元。 业内人士认为，迎峰度夏拉动电力需求增长，叠加中报季即将来临以及全国统一电力市场建设加速推进 带来的积极影响，机构当下建议重视对电力板块的配置。除看好水电、火电、绿电等细分方向外，制冷 剂、煤炭等与制冷、发电相关的板块同样值得投资者关注。 智通财经APP获悉，中国国家发改委政策研究室副主任李超26日在新闻发布会上介绍，中国正着力提升 电力保供能力，今年迎峰度夏电力供需形势好于去年，全国电力供需平衡总体有保障。 2025/06国家电网总经理庞骁刚在国新办新闻发布会上表示，深化"AI+抢修"应用。国家能源集团储能项 目：山东蓬莱的205兆瓦时复合储能电站，通过AI模型监测电池状态和能源 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Merchants Bank has received approval from the National Financial Regulatory Administration to establish a financial asset investment company, which will enhance its capabilities in market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps and equity investment trials [2][3]. Group 1: Company Establishment - The registered capital of the newly established investment company, named China Merchants Jin Investment Co., is 15 billion yuan, making it a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank [3]. - The establishment of this company is a strategic move by China Merchants Bank to align with national development goals and provide comprehensive financing support to enterprises [3]. Group 2: Market Impact - Holding an AIC license allows banks to legally conduct market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps, helping enterprises reduce leverage and optimize capital structure, while also providing new pathways for banks to manage non-performing assets [4]. - The AIC license enables banks to break down barriers between commercial and investment banking, allowing for services such as equity financing and mergers and acquisitions, thus deepening comprehensive operations [4]. Group 3: Industry Context - The establishment of financial asset investment companies is part of a broader initiative by the National Financial Regulatory Administration to expand equity investment trials among qualified commercial banks [5]. - The characteristics of technology enterprises, such as high investment and risk, make traditional bank loans challenging; thus, the equity investment business of banks can fill this gap [5].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of standardized contract templates for data circulation transactions aims to facilitate smoother and more efficient data trading among businesses, addressing existing challenges in the market [3][4][5]. Group 1: Contract Types - The standardized contract templates focus on four typical scenarios in data circulation: data provision, data entrusted processing, data fusion development, and data intermediary services [3]. - The data provision contract is designed for data providers to share data with recipients through various means, including paid transactions and licensing [3]. - The data entrusted processing contract allows data owners to delegate data processing tasks to third parties based on specific instructions [3]. - The data fusion development contract facilitates collaboration among parties to share data for creating platforms or pools, such as AI training zones [3]. - The data intermediary services contract pertains to the facilitation of data transactions through marketing, information dissemination, and contract establishment [3]. Group 2: Benefits and Efficiency - The standardized contracts include common clauses regarding data ownership, confidentiality, liability, and dispute resolution, which are tailored to the specific needs of data circulation transactions [4]. - The introduction of these templates is expected to significantly reduce negotiation costs and improve transaction efficiency by approximately 30% [4][5]. - The templates will help businesses avoid lengthy negotiations and unclear contract terms, which have previously led to disputes and increased costs [4][5]. Group 3: Market Implications - The availability of standardized contracts encourages businesses to treat data as a distinct commodity, enhancing participation from risk-averse entities like state-owned enterprises and financial institutions [6]. - The growing trend of data trading is reflected in the financial disclosures of listed companies, indicating a shift towards more structured and compliant data transactions [5][6].

作 者丨郭聪聪 编 辑丨周炎炎 在消费贷监管收紧后，一场围绕小微企业主的经营贷价格战正悄然打响。 21世纪经济报道记者调查发现， 多家银行，其中不乏国有大行与股份制银行，纷纷将经营贷 利率拉至3%以下，而部分中小银行却陷入"跟不起"的窘境 。 多名业内人士告诉21世纪经济报道记者，这场看似让利的利率竞赛背后，既是银行对优质小微 客户的激烈争夺，更是利率市场化改革下的生存之战。 经营贷利率进入" 2时代" 近期，多名小微企业主收到了招商银行推送的"年化 2.68% 指定利率券（生意贷客户）"。 尽 管该利率券标注的有效期截至2025年6月30日，但本报记者在7月7日查询招行APP发现，生意 贷（抵押）年利率仍显示为 2.7%，与此前促销利率基本持平。 招行"生意贷"指定利率券截图 图示来源：小微企业主 图示来源：招行APP"生意贷"产品截图 记者查阅招行产品细则发现，招行"生意贷"产品专门面向小微企业主和个体工商户群体。该产 品分为两种类型：信用贷最高可申请50万元，年利率（单利）从3%起，申请人只需提供税务 记录、个人征信报告、公积金或社保缴纳证明等材料，并在申请时填写企业注册地、名称及统 一社会信用代码等基 ...

Group 1 - The second wave of IPO现场检查 in 2025 includes 12 companies, with 8 applying for the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 4 for the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1] - 惠科股份 is the only company making a second IPO attempt, previously applying for the创业板 with a planned fundraising of 9.5 billion yuan [1][4] - In 2023 and 2024, the number of companies undergoing IPO现场检查 was significantly lower, with only 17 and 4 respectively, while 14 companies have been selected in 2025 so far [1] Group 2 - The 12 selected companies have an average net profit of 498 million yuan over the past year, with a total fundraising target of 24.81 billion yuan [2] - Seven of the companies are expected to generate over 1 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with net profits exceeding 200 million yuan [3] Group 3 - 惠科股份 is the largest company among the selected, with a planned fundraising of 8.5 billion yuan, specializing in semiconductor display panels and smart display terminals [4] - 惠科股份 has seen its revenue grow from 27.134 billion yuan in 2022 to an estimated 40.31 billion yuan in 2024, with net profits recovering from a loss of 1.428 billion yuan in 2022 to a profit of 3.339 billion yuan in 2024 [4] Group 4 - The panel industry is known for its cyclical volatility, with 惠科股份 previously withdrawing its IPO application due to declining LCD panel prices [5] - The industry is showing signs of recovery in 2023, but concerns remain about potential future volatility in the TV panel market [5] Group 5 -芯密科技, the smallest company among the selected, focuses on semiconductor-grade perfluoroether rubber materials, with a planned fundraising of 785 million yuan [7] -芯密科技's revenue has grown from approximately 41.59 million yuan in 2022 to 208 million yuan in 2024, but it has a high customer concentration risk [7][8] Group 6 - The chemical industry has the highest number of selected companies, totaling 5, including田园生化 and东岳未来, with varying revenue and profit trends [9] - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing sector has 3 companies selected, including 惠科股份 and芯密科技, with significant revenue contributions from major clients [9] Group 7 - The 12 IPO projects involve 9 different securities firms, with 中信证券 and 中金公司 being the most active [10] - The current IPO regulatory environment emphasizes strict scrutiny and market-oriented approaches, with a focus on identifying high-quality companies [10][12] Group 8 - The termination rate for IPO现场检查 has been high, with only 22 out of 115 companies successfully listing since 2021 [10][11] - The regulatory approach has shifted from merely gatekeeping to actively screening for quality, particularly for traditional industries and high-tech companies [12][13]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-07-07 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 目录 01 螺纹钢 02 01 PART ONE 螺纹钢 螺纹钢："反内卷" 催化短暂快涨，期价重回升水 焦煤焦炭 " 反内卷 " 催 化 短 暂 快 涨 ， 期 价 重 回 升 水 " 反内卷 " 催 化 市 场 情 绪 ， 但 煤 炭 复 产 预 期 渐 起 03 铁矿石 " 反内卷 " 情 绪 冲 高 ， 铁 矿 基 差 短 期 触 底 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 铁水产量本周小降，长流程钢厂利润依然偏好，继续印证市场化减停产的期望不高； ...