Group 1 - The current market is transitioning from a stock market to an incremental market, with A-shares experiencing high volatility in certain sectors while manufacturing sectors remain undervalued [1] - The "anti-involution" narrative is compared to the "Belt and Road" initiative, suggesting that it will help stimulate low-performing sectors in the context of increased capital inflow [1] - The valuation gap in Hong Kong stocks is becoming apparent, with insurance funds likely to expand their investment scope, indicating a favorable time to increase allocations to Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to anchor the basic expectations of the midstream manufacturing sector, with short-term investment opportunities becoming more apparent [2] - The passing of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the U.S. is expected to enhance fiscal stimulus, reducing the risk of a deep recession and improving visibility for China's supply-demand dynamics by 2026 [2] - The market has already begun to reflect a "bull market atmosphere," with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through key levels, enhancing risk appetite and spreading profit-making effects [2] Group 3 - A-share market performance has been strong, driven by the upward trend in U.S. stocks and the positive impact of technology leaders reaching new highs [3] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to alleviate domestic price pressures, with the upcoming earnings season providing a favorable environment for stocks with positive earnings forecasts [3] - The overall earnings improvement rate for A-shares is higher than the same period last year, indicating structural opportunities in high-growth TMT sectors and competitive midstream manufacturing [3] Group 4 - The "transformation bull market" is gaining momentum, driven by a systematic reduction in market discount rates and a favorable shift in economic structure [4] - The willingness of investors to accept risk is increasing, suggesting that the market may consolidate before making new highs [4] - Short-term focus should be on the "anti-involution" theme, with a rotation towards growth sectors continuing [4] Group 5 - Investment strategies should focus on three main areas: AI technology breakthroughs, consumer stock valuation recovery, and the rise of undervalued assets [5] - The recovery cycle in consumer stocks is supported by low valuations, declining interest rates, and policy catalysts, indicating potential opportunities in the sector [5] Group 6 - The capital return in A-shares is expected to stabilize and recover due to the "anti-involution" policy and the cessation of debt contraction [6] - The combination of domestic manufacturing recovery and overseas capital return will enhance the attractiveness of A-shares compared to other markets [6] - Recommended investment strategies include focusing on upstream resource products and capital goods that benefit from both domestic and international trends [6] Group 7 - The current market conditions resemble those of 2014, with a significant disconnect between market performance and earnings [7] - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a positive signal, although its impact may be weaker than previous real estate policy shifts [7] - The market is expected to experience a similar trend to the second half of 2014, but tactical breakthroughs may not be smooth [7] Group 8 - The A-share index has recently surpassed 3500 points, with financial sectors and technology themes driving market momentum [8] - The market's valuation has recovered from the bottom, indicating that further gains will require increased trading volume [8] - Structural opportunities are abundant, with a focus on stable dividend assets, resource products, and new technology sectors [8] Group 9 - The core drivers of the current market breakthrough include rising policy expectations, the "anti-involution" investment theme, and improved trading activity [9] - July is viewed as a favorable window for investment, with a focus on TMT, non-bank financials, and military sectors [9] - The AI computing sector's performance is closely tied to the strong results of benchmark U.S. stocks, influencing A-share valuations [9] Group 10 - The market is in a new bullish phase, with investor sentiment improving and incremental capital entering the market [10] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to alleviate income stagnation, potentially leading to a new phase of market growth [10] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors related to the "anti-involution" theme, stable currencies, and sectors with positive earnings forecasts [10]

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is experiencing a shift from a stock market dominated by existing shares to one driven by new capital inflows, with a potential for structural opportunities despite short-term consolidation needs [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends and Strategies - The "623" market rally is distinct from last year's "924" rally, as the A-share market valuation has risen from the bottom to above the historical median, indicating that further index gains require volume support [1][3]. - The strategy outlook suggests a high probability of a market trend similar to the comprehensive bull market of the second half of 2014, driven by low interest rates and potential increases in resident capital inflows [2][4]. - The current 10-year government bond yield is approximately half of what it was in 2014, with a significant decline over the past two years, indicating a favorable environment for market growth [4]. Group 2: Sector Performance and Opportunities - Sectors expected to perform well in the upcoming earnings season include high-growth TMT areas such as semiconductors, software development, and gaming, as well as midstream industries with global competitive advantages like automotive parts and defense [2][3]. - The ongoing domestic demand expansion policies are likely to benefit sectors such as home appliances, beauty care, and agriculture, while other sectors like precious metals and pharmaceuticals are also anticipated to show performance improvements [2][3]. - The market is expected to see better stock performance in July and August for industries with strong mid-year earnings reports, particularly in consumer sectors and technology [3][5].

Market Review - The domestic market shows a clear "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with rising market risk appetite driven by the ongoing "anti-involution" trend and expectations from important real estate meetings, leading to an increase in stock and commodity markets while the bond market remains under pressure. Major A-share indices saw a broad increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points, led by real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors. The banking index reached a historical high on Thursday but adjusted on Friday [1][2]. Market Outlook - The "stabilizing fund" is seen as a stabilizer for A-shares, with three main lines expected to perform well. The Shanghai Composite Index has reached 3500 points for the first time this year, with large financials, "anti-involution," and technology themes showing alternating upward trends. The proportion of financing funds and northbound trading funds in the market has significantly increased, reflecting a recovery in market risk appetite driven by profit-making effects. Unlike the previous "924" rally, the current A-share market valuation has risen from the bottom to above the historical median, indicating that further index gains will require volume support, and short-term market consolidation may be needed. However, the policy support for capital markets remains strong, and the influx of medium- to long-term funds like the "stabilizing fund" suggests limited downside even if the market experiences pullbacks, presenting numerous structural opportunities in a "stable yet rising" environment [2][3]. Industry Allocation - Focus on three main lines for industry allocation: 1) In a low-interest-rate environment, stable dividend assets will continue to be an important direction for medium- to long-term fund allocation 2) Beneficiaries of price increases in related resource sectors, such as minor metals and industrial metals 3) New technology and growth sectors, including military industry, marine economy, AI computing power, and solid-state batteries [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the non-bank financial industry. Core Insights - The comprehensive financial policy introduced on May 7 aims to address internal demand weakness and external economic fragmentation, while also learning from historical policy timing choices [4][10][12]. - The establishment of a quasi "stabilization fund" mechanism, along with central bank re-lending and insurance capital expansion, is expected to solidify market stability and transition from emergency interventions to a normalized mechanism [5][30]. - New regulations on major asset restructuring open up significant opportunities in the M&A market, introducing flexible payment mechanisms and simplified review processes [6][40][41]. - The public fund industry is encouraged to return to its core focus on investment returns, with new guidelines emphasizing long-term performance and fee structures linked to fund performance [7][67][72]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview: Background and Analysis of the Financial Policy Package - The timing of the financial policy package is influenced by internal factors such as weak domestic demand and risk prevention, as well as external shocks like trade barriers [10][12][13]. - The policy aims to create a coordinated approach among fiscal, monetary, and regulatory measures to avoid the pitfalls of previous economic downturns [13][14]. 2. Significance of the Quasi "Stabilization Fund" - The quasi "stabilization fund" is designed to provide a consistent market stabilization mechanism, moving away from ad-hoc interventions [30][31]. - International examples demonstrate the effectiveness of stabilization funds in mitigating market panic and stabilizing financial systems during crises [31][36]. 3. New Regulations on Major Asset Restructuring: Opening Up M&A Opportunities - The new regulations introduce four key innovations, including a phased payment mechanism and a simplified review process, which enhance transaction flexibility and efficiency [6][40][41]. - The adjustments in regulatory requirements for asset purchases aim to increase tolerance for mergers and acquisitions, particularly benefiting high-potential sectors [47][48]. 4. High-Quality Development Opinions for Public Funds: Returning to Core Principles - The public fund industry is urged to focus on investment returns, with reforms aimed at aligning interests between investors and fund managers [67][72]. - The introduction of a floating fee structure linked to performance is expected to enhance long-term investment strategies and accountability [88][90]. 5. Expanding Equity Investment: Financial Services for New Productive Forces - Continued encouragement for insurance capital to enter the market could lead to an influx of approximately 700 billion in equity investment [8][95]. - The expansion of AIC pilot programs reflects a policy direction aimed at enhancing banking services for technological innovation [8].

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a significant divergence in style, with strong performance in the banking sector supporting the index, while sectors like solid-state batteries and military industries faced adjustments [3] - Long-term capital inflow is accelerating, with steady growth in ETF size and continued inflow of insurance funds, providing significant support to the market [1][3] - The market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in the short term, with close attention needed on policy, capital flow, and external market changes [1] Group 2 - The overall market remains active, driven by a rebound in risk appetite, although caution is advised against chasing high-performing sectors and stocks [3] - The mid-term market trend appears positive, with expectations for the A-share market to continue its upward trajectory, supported by financial policies aimed at high-quality development and anticipated monetary easing [3] - The liquidity in the equity market is expected to improve significantly due to policies that relax insurance capital entry and attract long-term funds [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the historical high market value of bank stocks in A-shares and highlights the successful investment philosophy of Dong Baozhen, who has supported bank stocks for eight years and benefited significantly in the context of "China's special valuation" [2] - Dong Baozhen considers Warren Buffett as a mentor and aligns himself with the value investing principles of Benjamin Graham, focusing on understanding investment targets and prioritizing moral integrity over profit [3][4][5] - The article discusses Dong's personal journey from hardship to establishing a unique investment philosophy, emphasizing the importance of character and the ability to recognize undervalued assets [6][10][17] Group 2 - Dong Baozhen's investment strategy involves a deep understanding of bank stocks, where he applies his insights gained from discussions with investment legends like Charlie Munger [8][29] - The article highlights the significance of maintaining a strong moral compass in investment decisions, where true value investors prioritize ethical considerations over immediate financial gains [17][23][25] - Dong's approach to fundraising is unique, as he prefers direct relationships with clients rather than relying on third-party sales, fostering a community of like-minded investors [71][75][76] Group 3 - The article critiques the common belief that long-term holding is synonymous with value investing, arguing that the key to success lies in identifying undervalued assets rather than merely holding onto stocks [109][114] - Dong Baozhen emphasizes that the ability to assess a company's current value is more critical than predicting its future performance, which is often uncertain [123][125] - The discussion also touches on the challenges faced by fund managers in maintaining integrity and the importance of aligning with clients who share similar investment philosophies [45][50][61]

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 对外开放更加确定，金融助力科创包容性 提升 2025 陆家嘴论坛点评 研究结论 首次明确平准基金定位，关注稳定资本市 场的战略力量 2025-04-11 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 20 日 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 | | --- | 陈至奕 021-63325888*6044 chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 孙金霞 021-63325888*7590 sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 孙国翔 sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 ⚫ 5 月末陆家嘴论坛公告即将举行之际，曾对"中央金融管理部门将发布若干重大金融 政策"作过预告，市场对金融继续支持宏观总量增长的期待有所抬升，但从论坛公 布的政策内容看，更加侧重将对外开放与科技转型置于更关 ...

Group 1 - The non-bank financial sector has shown active performance following the "924" policy, with 38 comparable listed brokerages achieving adjusted revenue of 415.1 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders of 147 billion yuan in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 8% and 16% respectively [1] - In the first quarter of 2025, the performance further improved, with revenue and net profit increasing by 34% and 81% year-on-year, primarily driven by brokerage and proprietary trading businesses [1] - The overall price-to-book ratio of the securities industry stands at 1.27 times, which is at the 26th percentile of the past decade, indicating that valuations remain attractive [1] Group 2 - The Securities ETF (code: 512880) tracks the securities company index (code: 399975), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting listed companies involved in securities brokerage, investment banking, and proprietary trading from the A-share market to reflect the overall performance of the securities industry [1] - The index constituents cover the entire industry chain of the securities sector, showcasing significant market representation and industry characteristics [1] - Investors without stock accounts may consider the Guotai CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF Connect C (012363) and Guotai CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF Connect A (012362) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Shanghai Composite Index in breaking through the 3400-point barrier, highlighting the current high valuation levels and the lack of supportive policies or improved earnings expectations as key obstacles [4][10]. Valuation Analysis - The static PE ratio of the Wind All A (excluding financials) is currently at 31.51 times, which is at the 49th percentile since 2000, the 54th percentile over the past decade, and the 100th percentile over the last three years, indicating that the market is nearing its high tolerance for valuations [6][10]. - Compared to global equity markets, the valuation of Wind All A (excluding financials) is relatively high, with the Nasdaq at 44 times, S&P 500 (excluding financials) at approximately 30 times, and the Hang Seng Tech Index at 21 times, suggesting that A-shares lack a solid foundation to maintain levels above 3400 points [9][10]. Market Conditions - The article emphasizes that without new incremental policy support or significant improvements in earnings expectations, the market is unlikely to sustain levels above 3400 points. Current trade environment pressures limit the feasibility of large-scale policy stimulus [10]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown a continuous decline, with a year-on-year drop of 3.3% in May, indicating that A-share earnings are unlikely to improve in the near term [10]. Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience volatility, with a higher probability of downward movement. The focus will likely shift towards sectors with more predictable earnings, suggesting a strategy of seeking certainty and avoiding underperforming stocks [10][11]. - In the absence of significant changes in policies or PPI, a notable rise in the Shanghai Composite Index above 3400 points would be seen as a signal to reduce positions rather than increase them [11]. Structural Opportunities - The article outlines different market styles based on historical data since 2015, indicating that stable styles (e.g., utilities, consumer staples) are favored during external risks or tightening policies, while cyclical styles (e.g., materials, industrials) thrive in improving economic conditions [13][14]. - Growth styles (e.g., technology, emerging industries) depend on upward industry trends, policy support, and liquidity, while consumer styles are closely tied to economic recovery and consumer confidence [15][16]. - Currently, the market environment is characterized by weak earnings and low capital inflows, which is unfavorable for cyclical, growth, and consumer styles, but relatively beneficial for stable and financial styles [19]. Investment Recommendations - The article suggests a balanced allocation strategy, focusing on sectors with potential marginal improvements such as petrochemicals, brokerages, non-ferrous metals, military, and electric power, as well as industries aligned with policy and industry trends like AI applications, gaming, communication, and semiconductors [19].

Group 1: Innovation Drug Sector - The innovation drug sector in A-shares has seen a significant surge, with over 4,100 stocks closing in the green and the Shanghai Composite Index nearing the 3,400-point mark [1] - Notable stocks such as Changshan Pharmaceutical, Haichen Pharmaceutical, and Shutaishen achieved "20cm" limit-up, while others like Lianhua Technology and Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical recorded "10cm" limit-up [1] - According to statistics, 11 innovation drug concept stocks have seen maximum increases of over 200% compared to their one-year lows, including Hotgen Biotech and Shutaishen [1] Group 2: Central Huijin's Financial Expansion - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved Central Huijin Investment Co., Ltd. to become the actual controller of eight companies, marking a significant expansion of its financial footprint [4] - Central Huijin is a state-owned company established in December 2003, responsible for equity investments in key state-owned financial enterprises [5] - Since April, Central Huijin has been recognized as a "stabilization fund," boosting market confidence amid increased volatility in the domestic market [5] Group 3: Central Huijin's Stock Holdings - As of the end of Q1 this year, Central Huijin has invested in 152 stocks, with a total holding market value of 3.02 trillion yuan [6] - The largest holding is in China Bank, valued at 1.07 trillion yuan, followed by Industrial and Commercial Bank and Agricultural Bank [6][7] - Central Huijin's preference for large-cap stocks is evident, with an average market value of 1.315 billion yuan for its holdings [8] Group 4: Performance and Characteristics of Central Huijin's Holdings - In Q1, 89.47% of Central Huijin's holdings were profitable, with over 60% showing year-on-year net profit growth, significantly higher than the overall A-share market [10] - The average dividend yield for Central Huijin's holdings is 2.5%, with over 70% yielding above 1% [11] - The overall price-to-earnings ratio of Central Huijin's holdings is relatively low, with 67.76% having a rolling P/E ratio below 30 [11] Group 5: Long-term Investment Strategy - Central Huijin has a long-term investment strategy, with 135 stocks held for over 20 quarters, representing nearly 90% of its portfolio [12] - The longest-held stock is China Construction Bank, with a holding period of 67 quarters [12] - Notable long-term holdings also include leading companies in emerging industries such as BYD and Hikvision [12] Group 6: Market Performance of Long-term Holdings - Among the 135 stocks held for over 20 quarters, 14 have doubled in value since 2021, with China Shenhua leading at a 199.29% increase [13][14] - The performance of these long-term holdings reflects Central Huijin's commitment to stable and profitable investments [13]