Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment is average, with steel prices fluctuating weakly. The fundamentals of rebar are good, while hot-rolled coils are affected by tariff policies. Iron ore prices have slightly declined, and the supply pressure has eased. Coking coal and coke futures are fluctuating, and the supply of thermal coal has tightened at the end of the month, with prices fluctuating [1][3][5][9]. - In the long term, the iron ore market shows a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand, and the supply surplus pattern of coking coal has not changed significantly. The supply pattern of thermal coal remains loose [3][7][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The rebar futures main contract closed at 3,129 yuan/ton, and the hot-rolled coil main contract closed at 3,237 yuan/ton. The national inventory was 8.8211 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.47%. The steel inventory decreased by 5.11% week-on-week, and the hot-rolled coil increased by 2.69% week-on-week. The spot steel trading volume was average, with a national building materials trading volume of 120,500 tons [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be fluctuating and slightly stronger [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures price slightly declined, with the main 2509 contract closing at 710.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49%. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port slightly increased, and the market trading sentiment was cold. The global iron ore shipment volume significantly rebounded to 3.188 million tons. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major domestic ports was 962,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 214.28%. The total transaction volume of forward spot was 828,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 50.55% [3]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the impact of supply-side changes on the industrial chain. In the medium and long term, the iron ore market shows a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand. For unilateral trading, pay attention to the opportunity to sell for hedging after the price rebounds (preferably swap hedging) [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal and coke futures fluctuated weakly. Most steel mills had good procurement enthusiasm, and some steel mills had a small replenishment plan before the May Day holiday. The price of low-sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1,277 yuan/ton. The customs clearance at the Ganqimao Port of imported Mongolian coal remained at a low level, and the inventory in the supervision area decreased significantly. The coking coal inventory showed a decreasing trend due to environmental protection supervision and the phased decline in Mongolian coal customs clearance [5][7]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [8]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The pithead coal price fluctuated. At the end of the month, a small number of coal mines had maintenance after completing their tasks, and the supply tightened. The port inventory had reached a historical high, and the downstream demand was weak. The import market was stable and weak [9]. - **Strategy**: Due to the serious lack of futures liquidity, it is recommended to wait and see [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in livestock and agricultural product prices, highlighting the increase in pig prices and fluctuations in other agricultural commodities [2][3]. Livestock Prices - As of April 18, the average price of external three yuan pigs in China was 14.97 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.11%. The average price of 15 kg piglets was 37.11 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.24% [2]. - The average weight of market pigs was 128.57 kg, which decreased by 0.24 kg week-on-week. The national frozen product inventory rate was 14.88%, down by 0.06 percentage points [2]. - The recent cold wave caused disruptions in pig transportation, leading to increased prices in regions like Northeast China. The sentiment among farmers to hold onto pigs has strengthened, and there is a rise in secondary fattening and restocking activities, further supporting pig prices [2]. Agricultural Products - As of April 18, the average price of corn was 2268.04 yuan/ton, down by 0.02% week-on-week. The average price of soybean meal was 3395.14 yuan/ton, up by 3.79%, and the average price of wheat was 2427.50 yuan/ton, up by 0.23% [3]. - The corn prices are supported by the US-China tariff dispute and reduced US corn inventory. However, domestic demand remains weak due to cautious purchasing by deep processing and feed enterprises, leading to a stable acquisition price [3]. - The soybean meal prices are rising due to increased import costs and tight supply ahead of the holiday season [3]. - The price of natural rubber was 14625 yuan/ton, down by 1.35%. The market is currently in a weak balance of supply and demand, with high social inventory levels [3].

本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周猪价上涨 农产品方面，本周豆粕、小麦现货价格上涨，玉米现货价格下跌 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 根据博亚和讯，4月18日全国外三元生猪均价为14.97元/kg，周环比+2.11%，15公斤仔猪均价37.11元/公 斤，周环比下跌0.24%。根据涌益咨询数据，本周商品猪出栏均重为128.57kg，周环比下降0.24kg，全国冻 品库容率为14.88%，环比下降0.06pct。上周寒潮导致北方暴雪，生猪调运受阻，屠宰企业收猪难度加大， 东北等地猪价强势上涨。养殖端惜售情绪增强，二次育肥补栏积极性提升，叠加屠宰企业冻品入库需求旺 盛，进一步支撑猪价。但从均重角度来看，涌益出栏均重连续两周下降，农业部宰后均重加速冲高，库存 拐点已逐渐清晰。 风险分析： 畜 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **non-ferrous metals industry**, with a focus on the **electrolytic aluminum** and **steel** sectors [1][2][11]. Key Points on Electrolytic Aluminum Sector - **Market Performance**: The electrolytic aluminum sector is expected to perform well, with a confirmed inventory turning point. Social inventories of aluminum ingots and bars have decreased, with aluminum ingots down by 0.2 thousand tons and aluminum bars down by 0.86 thousand tons [3][4]. - **Price Trends**: Aluminum prices have started to rise, reaching 2,835 RMB/ton, marking a 1% increase this week. This aligns with expectations of improved demand [4]. - **Cost Improvements**: The cost structure for electrolytic aluminum is improving due to declining alumina prices and increased upstream supply. Additionally, lower coal prices are reducing electricity costs for self-supplied power plants, benefiting profitability [5][6]. - **Profitability**: Companies in the Xinjiang region, such as Shenhuo, have seen significant improvements in profitability, with net profit per ton of aluminum around 4,000 RMB. However, these improvements may reflect in financial statements with a delay of one to two months [6]. - **Future Outlook**: The overall market logic for electrolytic aluminum is gradually being realized, with expectations for continued price increases driven by cost reductions, tightening supply, and improving demand [8]. Key Points on Steel Sector - **Market Dynamics**: The steel sector is experiencing a positive sentiment due to expectations of capacity reduction and improved demand from the real estate sector. The government has indicated a focus on reducing crude steel production [2][9]. - **Profitability Outlook**: The steel industry's profitability is expected to improve as coal and ore prices decline, providing a safety margin for the sector [9]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies with strong cost control and good regional competitive positions, such as New Steel and Hualian Steel, are recommended for investment [9]. Key Points on Copper Market - **Supply and Demand**: The copper market is showing signs of a supply constraint due to a lack of new capacity in recent years. Current inventory levels are relatively healthy, and demand is expected to improve as the traditional consumption peak approaches [7][10]. - **Price Drivers**: Factors such as the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff on copper imports and a declining U.S. dollar index are likely to support copper price increases [10]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Metal Mining are highlighted as potential investment opportunities in the copper sector [10]. Additional Insights - The overall non-ferrous metals sector is gaining attention, with aluminum and steel showing sustained performance. The copper market is also beginning to show clearer turning points, suggesting potential investment opportunities in leading companies [11].