证券研究报告·公司点评报告·房地产开发 滨江集团（002244） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 70,443 | 69,152 | 69,982 | 65,713 | 67,750 | | 同比（%） | 69.73 | (1.83) | 1.20 | (6.10) | 3.10 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,529 | 2,546 | 2,799 | 3,021 | 3,321 | | 同比（%） | (32.41) | 0.66 | 9.94 | 7.95 | 9.92 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.81 | 0.82 | 0.90 | 0.97 | 1.07 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 12.29 | 12.21 | 11.11 | 10.29 | 9.36 | 2024 年报点评：销售排名稳步提升，业绩实 现逆市增长 买入（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_ ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a downturn, affecting both state-owned and private enterprises, leading to significant financial losses and a reconsideration of investment strategies in the sector [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance of State-Owned Enterprises - China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) subsidiary, China Communications Real Estate, is projected to see a revenue decline of 44.59% in 2024, with a net profit loss of 5.179 billion yuan and a net asset reduction of 3.579 billion yuan [1]. - Another state-owned enterprise has announced plans to exit the real estate sector after incurring losses totaling 7 billion yuan over two years [1]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Risks - The overall real estate market is facing significant uncertainty, with national new housing sales area and sales revenue expected to decline by 12.9% and 17.1% respectively in 2024, indicating a decrease in market demand [4]. - There are concerns about potential price depreciation in the housing market, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, where the risk of value loss remains high despite short-term policy measures aimed at stabilizing prices [4]. Group 3: Cost Increases and Investment Returns - Rising living costs, including property management fees and the impending implementation of property taxes, are expected to increase the financial burden on homeowners, potentially reducing investment returns in the real estate sector [6]. - The anticipated introduction of property taxes by 2030 could significantly raise the cost of holding real estate, impacting both investors and first-time homebuyers [6]. Group 4: Quality and Maintenance Concerns - The competitive pressure in the declining real estate market may lead to compromised construction quality, with developers potentially using inferior materials, resulting in safety hazards and maintenance issues for homeowners [8]. - Ongoing maintenance costs for properties, including repairs and community facility upkeep, are projected to add financial strain to homeowners, especially if property management services are inadequate [8]. Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - Given the current market conditions, it is advisable for potential buyers to prioritize cash liquidity and carefully evaluate housing options that align with their financial capabilities [10]. - The traditional approach of focusing on quantity in real estate development is becoming less viable; instead, companies should focus on quality and building a strong reputation to succeed in the evolving market landscape [10].

点评： 开发业务表现大幅滑坡，业绩修复情况仍待观察：销售与拿地方面，2024 年， 公司实现销售额 2460 亿元，同比下降 34.6%；新获取 13 个项目，其中存量盘 活项目达 11 个，权益地价 55.6 亿元。结算方面，2024 年，公司实现营业收入 3432 亿元，同比下降 26.3%，其中房地产开发及相关资产经营业务收入 3010 亿元，同比下降 30.0%；综合毛利率为 10.2%，同比下降 5.1pct，其中开发业 务毛利率为 9.5%，同比下降 6.2pct；归母净利润亏损 495 亿元，同比下降 506.8%，业绩亏损的主要原因包括：1）开发业务结算规模及结算毛利率同比显 著下降；2）因房地产市场下行，资产减值损失和信用减值损失分别同比多计提 37 亿元、260 亿元；3）部分非主业财务投资出现亏损及大宗资产交易产生亏损 等影响，投资收益同比下降 206.4%至-29 亿元；4）或因全年开复工规模下降导 致利息资本化比例下降，财务费用同比增长 59.9%等。 2025 年 4 月 13 日 公司研究 坚守信用底线，大股东提供重要支持 ——万科（000002.SZ、2202.HK）动态跟踪 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 178.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.04 billion yuan, a decrease of 36.1% [8] - The revenue growth was driven by an increase in the scale of project handovers, although gross profit margin declined by 1.5 percentage points to 15.6% due to increased credit and asset impairment losses [8] - The company ranked among the top five in the industry for sales, with a signed sales area of 9.36 million square meters and a sales amount of 219.3 billion yuan, demonstrating resilience during the industry downturn [8] - The company focused its investments on core cities, acquiring 26 land parcels with a total construction area of approximately 2.25 million square meters and an investment amount of about 48.6 billion yuan [8] - The company has a clear financing advantage, with a comprehensive funding cost reduced to 2.99%, and plans to repurchase shares worth 351 to 702 million yuan, reflecting confidence in its operations and future development [8] - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted downwards to 4.17 billion yuan and 4.35 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.46 and 0.48 yuan [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 175.01 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 178.95 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The net profit for 2023 was 6.32 billion yuan, expected to decrease to 4.04 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.45 yuan for 2024, with a gradual increase to 0.54 yuan by 2027 [1] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to be 21.76 for 2024, decreasing to 18.04 by 2027 [1]