Group 1 - Economist Nouriel Roubini predicts that the U.S. core inflation rate will rise to 3.5% by the end of 2025, indicating a slowdown in economic growth and potential recession in the second half of this year [1] - Roubini warns that inflation remains too high, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to shift its policy, as the core personal consumption expenditure index remains stubbornly above target levels [1] - He anticipates a "mild stagflation shock" and expects global trade negotiations to cool down, potentially leading to many countries facing tariffs of around 15% [1] Group 2 - Roubini is the fund manager of the Atlas U.S. Fund (USAF), which aims to protect investors from inflation, economic shocks, and climate instability, currently managing assets of $17 million [2] - Since its launch in November, USAF has risen over 5%, although it has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 index [2] - The fund focuses on stable returns rather than high returns, appealing to investors expecting slow, long-term instability rather than sudden collapse [2] Group 3 - USAF has recently increased its exposure to cybersecurity and defense technology while buying short-term inflation-protected bonds and reducing real estate holdings [3] - Roubini believes that the global economy is gradually moving away from the dollar, with investors preparing for this shift [3] - The fund's portfolio includes gold, short-term U.S. government bonds, and agricultural products, which have shown mixed performance [2][3] Group 4 - Roubini's outlook includes rising inflation, slowing growth, geopolitical uncertainty, and tightening global financial conditions [4]

Core Insights - The Bank of Mexico's survey indicates that private sector analysts expect the core inflation rate for 2025 to be 4.00%, slightly up from the previous estimate of 3.98% [1] - For 2026, the expected core inflation rate is projected to be 3.71%, a marginal increase from the earlier forecast of 3.70% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that U.S. Treasury yields have shown a slight increase, reflecting unexpected inflation rise as indicated by the Federal Reserve's preferred metrics [1][3] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 4.5 basis points to 3.76%, while the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 3.2 basis points to 4.285% [1] - The core inflation rate for May reached 2.7%, exceeding expectations, with economists predicting an overall inflation rate of 2.3% [3] Group 2 - Investors are closely monitoring President Trump's renewed threats against Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [4] - Powell reiterated the Fed's wait-and-see approach regarding interest rates until the impact of tariffs on the economy becomes clearer [5] - In the European market, most government bonds saw a slight increase in yields, with the 10-year German bond yield rising by 1.8 basis points to 2.583% [5] Group 3 - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields increased across the board, with the 10-year yield rising by 3.4 basis points to 1.452% [7] - The U.S. Treasury Department had no bond issuance scheduled for Friday [7]

美国堪萨斯城联储主席Schmid（2025年FOMC票委）：经济表现出韧性，这给了我们时间来观察物价进 展。 劳动力市场目前似乎状态良好。 正在关注数据以寻找价格普遍上涨的信号。 应该用包括食品价格的指标来替换掉核心通胀率。 美联储的两大使命很有可能出现冲突。 政策设定应该基于经济走向，当前的观望模式是合适的。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent performance of silver futures and the economic indicators from Japan, suggesting potential market movements and implications for investment strategies [1][2] - On June 23, the Shanghai silver futures closed at 8770 yuan per kilogram, with a daily increase of 0.35% and a trading volume of 436,999 contracts [1] - The spot price of silver in Shanghai was reported at 8707 yuan per kilogram, indicating a discount of 63 yuan per kilogram compared to the futures price [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan has decided to slow down the reduction of bond purchases starting from the fiscal year 2026, amid concerns over the economic outlook and potential impacts of U.S. trade tariffs [1] - Japan's core inflation rate has remained above the central bank's 2% target for over three years, reaching a two-year high in May, which opens the door for further interest rate hikes [1] - The au Jibun Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed that Japan's manufacturing sector returned to expansion for the first time since May 2024, rising from 49.4 to 50.4 in June [1] Group 3 - The trading strategy for silver futures indicates a recent trend of initial declines followed by rebounds, with a focus on adjusting the rebound target upwards [2] - The primary resistance level for silver futures is set at 8900, and if this level is breached, there is potential to test the 9000 psychological resistance zone [2] - The overall trading rhythm is expected to remain oscillating and slightly bearish [2]

日本央行行长植田和男：核心通胀率并未以加快的速度上升。 ...

机构分析师Curran评美国CPI：核心通胀率低于预期尤其值得注意。 ...

欧洲央行：预计2025年核心通胀率为2.4%，2026年为1.9%，2027年为1.9%。（3月预期分别为2.2%、 2.0%、1.9%） ...

Core Insights - The inflation rate in the Philippines dropped to 1.3% in May, the lowest level since December 2019 [1][2] - The average inflation rate for the first five months of the year is 1.9%, below the government's target range of 2% to 4% [1][2] Inflation Details - The decline in inflation is attributed to slower price increases in housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, which decreased from 2.9% to 2.3% [1] - The price increase for food and accommodation services fell from 2.3% to 2.0% [1] - Transportation prices saw a larger decline, with a drop from 2.1% to 2.4% [1] Core Inflation - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy prices, remained at 2.2%, but is lower than the 3.1% recorded in the same month last year [2] - The May inflation rate fell within the central bank's forecast range of 0.9% to 1.7% [2] Monetary Policy Implications - The slowdown in inflation led the central bank to lower the key policy rate by 25 basis points in April [2] - The central bank governor indicated the possibility of at least two more rate cuts within the year [2]

日本央行行长植田和男：日本的核心通胀率正呈温和上升趋势。 ...