他指出，未来几个月新盘反应继续会比二手盘好，新盘开价亦相当吸引，部分发展商为买家提供财务计 划及回赠，变相降低买家入市门槛。他预计香港楼价于2025年余下时间仍会在谷底反复徘徊，全年楼价 下跌0-3%，而明年有望回升半成。楼市机调会慢慢向好，但现时由于货尾量仍然高，楼价没有条件大 幅回升。 智通财经APP获悉，莱坊高级董事，大中华区研究及咨询部主管王兆麒表示，美国9月议息宣布减息 0.25%，料年内再减息0.25%，高息环境对香港楼市影响将会逐渐放缓。然而，由于自2022年起已累积 一定升幅，市场需要时间释放购买力，短期内市场仍然没有充足的购买力，但相信楼价在2025年会见 底。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the 8.25 policy aims to stimulate the Shanghai real estate market, particularly during the traditional peak sales period of "Golden September and Silver October," by easing restrictions and providing financial incentives to buyers [3][8][10]. Summary by Sections Market Response - After the implementation of the 8.25 policy, Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions reached 19,912 units in August, a month-on-month increase of 2.97% and a year-on-year growth of 11.34% [3]. - New housing projects in the outer ring, such as Poly Haishangyin and Jinmao Tang, experienced immediate sales success, indicating a localized surge in demand [4]. Policy Details - The 8.25 policy includes three main components: relaxation of purchase restrictions in the outer ring, optimization of public housing fund policies, and adjustments to property tax regulations [6]. - Key changes include the removal of purchase limits for eligible residents in the outer ring, a 15% increase in public housing loan limits, and the introduction of tax exemptions for first-time buyers [6][8]. Market Conditions - The policy was introduced in response to a declining market characterized by falling prices and extended transaction cycles, with second-hand housing prices dropping for seven consecutive months [8][11]. - The average price of second-hand homes in Shanghai fell to 46,738 yuan per square meter in September, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.79% and a year-on-year decline of 9.17% [11]. Regional Dynamics - The outer ring market shows signs of increased activity, but underlying pressures remain, with many sellers willing to lower prices to facilitate sales [11][17]. - In contrast, the inner ring market demonstrates stability due to its limited supply and high demand, maintaining its value amidst broader market fluctuations [18][20]. Implications for Buyers and Sellers - The new policy creates a favorable environment for first-time buyers, significantly lowering entry barriers and encouraging purchases in high-potential areas [25][27]. - Sellers in the outer ring are advised to adjust their pricing strategies to remain competitive, especially as new housing options become more attractive [25][27]. Broader Market Context - The 8.25 policy is seen as a targeted measure to alleviate high inventory levels in the outer ring while avoiding overheating in core areas [8][22]. - The surrounding regions, such as Suzhou, are experiencing challenges as they respond to Shanghai's policy changes, indicating a potential shift in demand dynamics [22][24].

Group 1 - Major cities in China, including Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, have introduced new real estate policies aimed at optimizing the housing market, with a focus on loosening purchase restrictions [1] - The adjustments in purchase policies are targeted at areas with concentrated transactions and inventory, which is expected to stimulate market activity and improve housing conditions for residents [1] - Following the new policies, Shenzhen reported a significant increase in second-hand housing transactions, with a doubling of signed contracts in Luohu and a 69% increase in Bao'an district during the first weekend after the policy announcement [1] Group 2 - Despite the new policies, there remains a cautious sentiment among homebuyers, with a tendency to delay decisions due to a "buy high, not low" mentality, indicating a need for time to rebuild confidence in the market [2] - The market is anticipated to require stable expectations and genuine demand for a healthy recovery, with ongoing support from coherent and sustained policy measures [2] - Future policy directions may include stabilizing housing price expectations, effectively activating homebuyer demand, and implementing measures for inventory management and urban village renovations [2]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen has introduced significant real estate policy changes aimed at optimizing housing purchase restrictions, enhancing corporate purchasing policies, and adjusting personal housing credit policies, reflecting a combination of urban governance and public welfare [1][6]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The new policy allows eligible resident families, including both local and non-local families with certain qualifications, to purchase an unlimited number of properties in specific districts such as Luohu and Baoan [2][3]. - Non-local families without proof of continuous social insurance or income tax payments in Shenzhen can still purchase up to two properties in the same districts [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the new policy, there was a noticeable increase in property viewings and consultations, indicating heightened interest from potential buyers [2][3]. - The number of inquiries at real estate agencies surged, with some agencies reporting the highest consultation levels in nearly 90 days, particularly in the Luohu district [3]. Group 3: Future Expectations - The release of pent-up demand may not be fully realized until the upcoming National Day holiday, suggesting a gradual market recovery [5]. - Analysts believe that the new policies will stimulate market activity, particularly in areas with a high concentration of industrial enterprises, thereby enhancing overall demand [5][6]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The policy reflects a strategic approach to real estate governance, aiming to stabilize market expectations and boost confidence among buyers [6]. - The timing of the policy rollout aligns with the traditional peak sales period in September and October, which may further enhance its effectiveness [6].

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen has introduced significant real estate policies aimed at optimizing housing purchase restrictions, corporate purchasing policies, and personal housing credit policies, reflecting a combination of urban governance and public welfare [1][6]. Policy Changes - The new policies allow eligible residents, including local and certain non-local families, to purchase an unlimited number of homes in specific districts such as Luohu and Baoan, while non-local families without proof of continuous social insurance or tax payments can buy up to two homes [2][3]. - The relaxation of purchase restrictions is expected to stimulate market activity, particularly in areas with high rental yields and quality school districts [3][5]. Market Response - Following the announcement of the new policies, there was a noticeable increase in inquiries and property viewings, with some real estate agents reporting a significant rise in client consultations and property showings [2][3]. - The number of consultations for second-hand homes reached the highest level in nearly 90 days, with a 15% increase in viewing numbers compared to the previous eight weeks, particularly in Luohu where viewings surged by 38% [3][4]. Future Expectations - The release of new demand may be more evident during the upcoming National Day holiday, with experts suggesting that the market will not experience drastic fluctuations even with the lifting of restrictions [5][6]. - The policies are expected to enhance market confidence and stabilize expectations, particularly during the traditional peak sales period of "Golden September and Silver October" [6][7]. Broader Implications - The relaxation of corporate purchasing restrictions is anticipated to activate demand in industrial areas, benefiting regions with a high concentration of enterprises [5][6]. - The overall strategy reflects a proactive approach to real estate governance, aiming for targeted and effective policy implementation rather than broad, indiscriminate measures [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen has introduced significant real estate policy changes aimed at optimizing housing purchase restrictions, corporate purchasing policies, and personal housing credit policies, reflecting a combination of urban governance and public welfare [1][6] Group 1: Policy Changes - The new policy allows eligible residents, including both local and non-local families who have paid social insurance or income tax in Shenzhen for over a year, to purchase an unlimited number of homes in specific districts [2][3] - Non-local families without the required proof can still buy up to two homes in the same districts, which include Luohu, Baoan, Longgang, Longhua, Pingshan, and Guangming [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the new policy, there was a noticeable increase in property viewings and consultations, with some real estate agents reporting a significant rise in client inquiries [2][3] - The number of consultations for second-hand homes reached the highest level in nearly 90 days, with a 15% increase in viewing volume compared to the previous eight weeks, particularly in Luohu where the viewing volume surged by 38% [3][4] Group 3: Future Expectations - The release of new demand may be more evident during the upcoming National Day holiday, with expectations that the policy will stimulate market activity without causing drastic fluctuations [5][6] - The policy is expected to enhance market confidence and stabilize expectations, particularly during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, which is traditionally a peak season for real estate transactions [6]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen's real estate market is responding to regulatory changes, with new policies introduced to stimulate housing demand and adjust market dynamics [1][11]. Policy Changes - Shenzhen's new housing policy categorizes the city into three zones: core areas (Nanshan, Futian, and Bao'an New An), peripheral areas (Luohu, Bao'an excluding New An, Longhua, Longgang, Guangming, and Pingshan), and suburban areas (Yantian, Dapeng, and Deep-Shan) [4][5][6]. - The policy allows for unlimited purchases for local residents and non-residents with one year of social security in peripheral areas, while suburban areas have no purchase restrictions for outsiders [6][8]. - Single individuals now have equal purchasing rights as families, allowing them to buy two properties in core areas if they have paid social security for one year [8]. Financial Implications - The distinction between first and second homes has been removed, aligning down payment ratios and loan rates for both categories, effectively lowering costs for second-home buyers [9][10]. - Current mortgage rates for both first and second homes are set at 3.05%, down from 3.45% for second homes, which could save buyers significant interest over time [9][10]. Market Performance - Shenzhen's housing prices have fallen below 60,000 yuan per square meter, with recent data showing a drop to 59,300 yuan in July, marking the second time since last year that prices have dipped below this threshold [16][18][21]. - The overall trend indicates a significant decline in property prices across major cities, with Shenzhen experiencing a 39.6% drop since 2016 [21]. Market Dynamics - The current market environment reflects a broader adjustment phase, with many potential buyers hesitant due to economic uncertainties and previous high prices creating a "demand gap" [37][40]. - The population decline in China, with a reduction of 208,000 in 2023, is expected to further impact the real estate market, as population growth is a key driver of housing demand [46][49]. Long-term Outlook - The recent policy changes are anticipated to have a short-term stimulating effect, but the long-term impact remains uncertain, as the market continues to adjust to economic realities and changing buyer sentiments [33][52].

Core Insights - Shenzhen has implemented significant policy changes regarding housing purchase restrictions, narrowing the limited purchase areas to specific districts, which exceeded market expectations [1][5][6] - The new policy has led to an immediate increase in market activity, with a notable rise in both new and second-hand property inquiries and transactions [2][3][4] Policy Changes - The limited purchase areas have been significantly reduced, with only Futian, Nanshan, and Bao'an's Xin'an Street remaining under restrictions, while other districts have been fully opened for purchases [6][7] - Local residents can purchase an unlimited number of properties, while non-residents can buy up to two properties after meeting certain criteria [6] Market Response - Following the announcement, there was a reported increase of over 10% in visitor numbers to property sites, indicating a boost in buyer confidence [1][2] - Some projects experienced a doubling of inquiries compared to previous weeks, with immediate sales reported shortly after the policy announcement [2][3] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the new policies will stimulate market activity, particularly in the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" period, with expectations of a significant increase in transaction volumes, potentially exceeding 50% [8] - The easing of mortgage rates for second homes is expected to further enhance demand, particularly for improved housing products [8]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen's recent policy adjustments, particularly the relaxation of purchase restrictions, have exceeded market expectations and are expected to significantly boost market confidence and transaction volumes [1][7][9]. Policy Changes - The new policy has narrowed the purchase restriction areas, with only Futian, Nanshan, and Bao'an's Xin'an Street remaining under restrictions, while areas like Luohu and Bao'an's Xixiang Street are no longer restricted [7][8]. - In other districts, local residents can purchase unlimited properties, while non-residents can buy up to two properties, and certain areas have completely lifted purchase qualification reviews [8]. Market Response - Following the announcement, there was an immediate increase in buyer inquiries and visits to properties, with some projects reporting visitor numbers doubling compared to previous weeks [3][4]. - Specific projects noted a significant uptick in sales, with some reporting multiple transactions within a single morning after the policy announcement [3][4]. Market Sentiment - Industry experts believe that the new policy will enhance market sentiment, encouraging developers to increase supply and buyers to enter the market, thus stimulating demand [9][10]. - The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" period is anticipated to further amplify market activity, with expectations of a transaction volume increase of over 50% in September [11]. Long-term Implications - The policy is seen as a strategic move to attract buyers from surrounding regions and to stabilize prices in non-core areas, while still maintaining some restrictions in core districts to prevent speculation [9][10]. - The reduction in mortgage rates for second homes is also expected to support demand, particularly from buyers looking for improved living conditions [10].

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen's new real estate policy, released on September 5, aims to stimulate the sluggish housing market through significant adjustments in purchase restrictions, corporate buying policies, and mortgage interest rates, surpassing expectations compared to recent policies in Beijing and Shanghai [1][2][8]. Purchase Restriction Policy Optimization - The purchase restriction policy has been optimized with four key changes: 1. The restricted areas for local residents have been reduced to include only Futian, Nanshan, and Bao'an New An Street [1]. 2. Non-local residents can purchase two homes in non-restricted areas without needing proof of tax or social security contributions [1]. 3. In Yantian District and Dapeng New District, there will be no qualification checks for purchasing residential properties, effectively lifting restrictions [2]. 4. Single individuals can now purchase an additional property, equating their purchasing capacity to that of families [2]. Corporate Buying Policy Relaxation - The new policy allows companies to purchase properties more freely, requiring only a one-year establishment period, a total tax payment of 1 million RMB, and a minimum of 10 employees to qualify for purchases in restricted areas, with no limits on the number of properties [3][5]. - This is expected to encourage investment in Shenzhen and stimulate demand in the housing market, particularly in areas with a high concentration of businesses [3]. Mortgage Rate Mechanism Adjustment - The mortgage interest rate mechanism has been adjusted, eliminating the distinction between first and second home loans. Both types will now have a rate of LPR - 45 basis points (3.05%) [5][6]. - This change is projected to save approximately 510,000 RMB in interest for a second home loan of 8 million RMB over 30 years, significantly benefiting buyers looking to upgrade their homes [6]. Expected Policy Effects - The new policy is anticipated to drive market activity, particularly in non-core areas, with expectations of a transaction volume increase of over 40% and at least 30% of demand coming from new buyers [8][9]. - The timing of the policy coincides with the traditional peak sales period ("Golden September and Silver October"), which is likely to enhance market confidence and stimulate transactions [8][9]. - The relaxation of restrictions may attract buyers from surrounding regions, potentially leading to a "siphoning effect" on the housing market in the Greater Shenzhen area [9].