Core Insights - The flu activity in China has rapidly increased since November, with Beijing entering a high incidence period for respiratory infectious diseases [1] - Sales of antiviral medications have surged, with Oseltamivir experiencing a 237% increase in sales over the past week, and Baloxavir Marboxil (Xofluza) seeing an increase of 180% [1] - Despite the surge in demand for flu medications, inventory levels for popular antiviral drugs remain sufficient, with availability for both online and offline purchases [1]

据智通财经，11月25日，记者获悉，随着流感季提前到来，阿里健康平台上的相关药品需求呈现明显上 升趋势。阿里健康平台数据显示，近两周（11.10-11.23）流感应季药品的关注度和购买量均有明显提 升。总体而言，流感抗病毒药物购买人数呈现超500%的环比增长。其中玛巴洛沙韦表现尤为突出，购 买人数环比增长超600%，增速领先；抗病毒口服液购买人数环比50%。反映出消费者对流感的防治意 识进一步增强。专家指出，今年流行的甲型H3N2毒株与往年不同，人群普遍免疫力较低，更易引发传 播，值得公众警惕。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

Core Insights - The flu season in China has entered a rapid increase phase, with many provinces reaching moderate to high epidemic levels, leading to a significant rise in demand for flu vaccines and antiviral medications [1][4] Group 1: Flu Vaccine Supply and Demand - Flu vaccine and antiviral drug supplies remain stable across multiple regions, with no significant price increases reported, although some innovative and imported vaccines are experiencing temporary shortages [1][2] - There is a notable increase in flu vaccine appointment requests in northern provinces, with four-valent subunit flu vaccines facing tight inventory, while adult flu vaccines are generally available [2][3] Group 2: Targeted Vaccination Initiatives - Beijing has included school students and frontline workers in a free vaccination program, aiming to complete the initiative by the end of the month, with other regions extending vaccination hours for minors [3] Group 3: Antiviral Drug Demand Surge - The demand for antiviral medications has surged, with sales figures showing a 22-fold increase in flu medication transactions since the onset of the flu season, and specific products like Oseltamivir and Favipiravir seeing significant sales growth [4][5] Group 4: Drug Efficacy and Market Regulation - Current antiviral medications remain effective against circulating flu strains, with no evidence of increased virulence in flu viruses; regulatory bodies are actively monitoring and ensuring stable supply and pricing of these medications [5][6]

Core Insights - The flu cases in China have significantly increased as winter approaches, with ILI% reported at 6.7% in southern provinces and 7.0% in northern provinces, both higher than the previous week and the same period in 2022, 2023, and 2024 [1] Group 1: Flu Case Statistics - The ILI% for southern provinces is reported at 6.7% and for northern provinces at 7.0%, indicating a rise in flu cases [1] - The reported ILI% is higher than the levels observed in the previous week and the same weeks in the past three years [1] Group 2: Sales Data for Flu Medications - JD Health reported a significant increase in sales of flu medications, with orders for antipyretic and analgesic drugs growing over 4.5 times compared to October [1] - The sales of the drug "Sufuda" increased by over 14 times, while the sales of "Dafei" and "Kewai" also saw growth exceeding 9 times [1] - Alibaba Health indicated that from November 10 to November 23, the number of buyers for antiviral flu medications surged by over 500% compared to the previous month [1] Group 3: Home Testing Services - Major e-commerce platforms are competing for customer traffic through home testing services, with Taobao Shanguo and Alibaba Health launching a "home flash test" service for respiratory virus and bacteria detection [1] - JD Daojia reported that from November 14 to November 20, the order volume for home sampling of respiratory bacteria and virus testing services increased nearly 100% compared to the previous week [2]

Group 1 - The demand for antiviral drugs has significantly increased due to a rise in flu patients across multiple regions in the country [1] - Sales of various antiviral medications, including Oseltamivir and Mabalaosavir, have surged, with Oseltamivir's sales increasing by 237% and Mabalaosavir's by 180% in the past week [3] - Other medications such as antipyretics, cough suppressants, and nasal sprays have also seen sales increases exceeding 53% [3] Group 2 - In northern cities like Shenyang, Changchun, Xi'an, and Hohhot, the sales of specific flu medications have grown by over 1.5 times [5] - Flu test kits have experienced a tenfold increase in cities such as Beijing, Shenyang, Chengdu, and Xi'an [5] - From November 14 to November 20, the order volume for respiratory bacterial and viral testing increased by 63%, with a positive detection rate rising to 67.7% [7] Group 3 - Patients are opting for home testing services, with results available online within an average of three hours [8] - Despite the rising demand for medications, online pharmacies and brick-and-mortar stores report that drug supplies are sufficient and supply chains are operating smoothly [10]

Group 1 - The current influenza activity in China has entered a rapid rising phase, with most provinces reaching moderate epidemic levels and some provinces even reaching high epidemic levels [1][2] - The predominant strain for the 2025-2026 flu season is the H3N2 subtype, differing from the previous season which was dominated by the H1N1 subtype. There is also co-circulation of H1N1 and B type influenza viruses [2] - There has been a significant increase in reported outbreaks of influenza in childcare institutions and schools, with a notably higher positive rate of influenza virus detection in the 5-14 age group compared to other age groups [2] Group 2 - It is crucial to differentiate between common colds and influenza, as influenza typically presents with more severe systemic symptoms such as fever and muscle aches, while common colds are characterized by milder symptoms [3] - Rapid testing methods for influenza are available, allowing for diagnosis within half an hour, and early antiviral treatment is highly effective [3][4] - High-risk groups, including infants, the elderly, pregnant women, and those with chronic conditions, should seek medical attention promptly if diagnosed with influenza to prevent severe complications [4]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic influenza activity is showing a significant upward trend, with an increase in reported ILI% and positive rates of influenza virus testing compared to the previous week [1] Group 1: Influenza Activity - Both northern and southern regions of China are experiencing a rise in influenza-like illness (ILI) cases and positive influenza virus test rates [1] - Influenza activity in countries like Japan and the UK remains high, surpassing levels seen in the same period in previous years [1] Group 2: Dominant Strains and Vaccination - The dominant strain in China is the A(H3N2) subtype, prompting updates to the influenza vaccine composition in the new vaccination guidelines [1] - The updated vaccination guidelines provide specific recommendations for vulnerable groups, including pregnant women and individuals allergic to eggs, along with the optimal vaccination timing [1] Group 3: Treatment and Recommendations - Vaccination is highlighted as the most effective method for preventing influenza and reducing severe cases [1] - The influenza diagnosis and treatment protocols are well-established, utilizing antigen and nucleic acid testing for early diagnosis, with treatment options including symptomatic care and antiviral therapy [1] - There is a recommendation to pay attention to influenza vaccines, respiratory medications, and related diagnostic products [1]

Core Insights - The report from Everbright Securities indicates a significant rise in influenza cases as temperatures drop in autumn 2025, with a notable increase in public and market attention towards flu prevention and treatment products [1][2] Group 1: Influenza Trends - The incidence of influenza-like illness (ILI) has increased, with southern provinces reporting an ILI rate of 4.6% in week 44 of 2025, up from 4.1% the previous week and higher than the same period in 2022 and 2024 [1] - Northern provinces reported an ILI rate of 5.1% in the same week, also showing an increase from 3.7% the previous week and higher than the rates in 2022, 2023, and 2024 [1][2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - **Influenza Vaccines**: The low penetration rate of flu vaccines in China presents a significant growth opportunity, especially with the expected increase in demand during the flu season. Companies to watch include Hualan Biological Engineering (301207.SZ), Baike Biological (688276.SH), and Jindike (688670.SH) [3] - **Virus Detection**: The demand for rapid and accurate diagnosis of respiratory infections is expected to boost the performance of companies in this sector. Recommended companies include Innotec (688253.SH), Shengxiang Biological (688289.SH), Botao Biological (688767.SH), and Wanfu Biological (300482.SZ) [4] - **Cold and Specialty Medicines**: The demand for cold medicines is anticipated to rise in Q4 2025, with potential sales and delivery improvements. Companies to consider include Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317.SZ), China Resources Sanjiu (000999.SZ), Kangyuan Pharmaceutical (600557.SH), and others [4]

Industry Overview - Recent flu activity in China has significantly increased, with most provinces entering the flu epidemic period [1] - The latest data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention indicates that flu viruses have surpassed other respiratory viruses, becoming the most prevalent this autumn and winter [1] - Experts suggest that this year's flu season may start earlier and involve a higher number of infections, with the dominant strain being H3N2, which has lower immunity in the population compared to last year's H1N1 strain [1] Company Insights - Borui Pharmaceutical is an integrated enterprise specializing in raw materials and formulations, primarily supplying the domestic market with oseltamivir [3] - The company has established a complete industrial chain from starting materials to high-difficulty intermediates, and has obtained approvals for oseltamivir capsules and dry suspensions [3] - Core antiviral products of Borui include entecavir and oseltamivir [3] - Puluo Pharmaceutical offers oseltamivir and amantadine, which are effective against flu viruses [4]

Core Insights - Roche Pharmaceuticals China launched the innovative flu drug, Baloxavir Marboxil (速福达), at the 8th China International Import Expo, highlighting its latest clinical data on family transmission prevention and cross-border health protection solutions [1][10] Group 1: Flu Prevention and Treatment Ecosystem - Roche China collaborates with the China Population Welfare Foundation, medical experts, and digital platform partners to create a comprehensive flu prevention and treatment ecosystem covering prevention, detection, treatment, and assurance [4] - The global flu season, from October to March, sees 3 to 5 million severe cases and 290,000 to 650,000 deaths annually, with increased cross-border movement heightening flu transmission risks [6] Group 2: Vaccination and Public Awareness - In China, the flu vaccination rate remains low at 3.84% for the 2022-2023 season, significantly lower than in Europe and the U.S., indicating a need for improved public awareness and vaccination efforts [8] - The China Population Welfare Foundation initiated a global travel protection campaign for the flu season, aiming to enhance public understanding of flu prevention [6] Group 3: Baloxavir Marboxil Efficacy - Clinical data shows that the family treatment regimen of Baloxavir Marboxil can reduce household flu infection rates from 54.45% to 6.93% and shorten symptom duration from 1.14 days to 0.11 days [10] - The drug's single-dose oral administration improves adherence compared to multi-day regimens, addressing challenges in pediatric medication where 43% of children face difficulties [10][11] Group 4: Pediatric Considerations - Children are particularly vulnerable to flu, with longer illness duration and higher viral shedding, necessitating specialized formulations for effective treatment [10] - The Baloxavir Marboxil pediatric formulation is designed for ease of use, allowing precise dosing based on weight, thus enhancing the medication experience for children [11] Group 5: Commitment to Public Health - Roche emphasizes its commitment to public health and the "Healthy China 2030" initiative, aiming to enhance flu prevention and treatment through scientific advancements and collaboration with various sectors [11]