Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, reflecting challenges in the coal and electricity markets, but maintains a strong dividend outlook due to its coal-electricity integration strategy [1][3]. Revenue and Profit Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 69.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.95 billion yuan, down 18.0% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 11.71 billion yuan, a decline of 28.9% year-on-year [1] Production and Sales Summary - The company produced 82.5 million tons of commodity coal in Q1 2025, a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [1] - Coal sales volume was 99.3 million tons, down 15.3% year-on-year, with self-produced coal sales at 78.5 million tons, a decrease of 4.7% [1] - The average selling price of coal (excluding tax) was 519 yuan/ton, down 12.2% year-on-year, with self-produced coal priced at 484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.4% [1][2] Cost and Margin Summary - The cost of coal per ton was 363 yuan, down 13.6% year-on-year, while the cost of self-produced coal increased slightly to 195.8 yuan/ton, up 2.3% year-on-year [2] - Total coal revenue was 51.6 billion yuan, a decline of 25.7% year-on-year, with operating costs at 36.1 billion yuan, down 26.8% [2] - Total gross profit from coal was 15.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.8% year-on-year [2] Electricity Generation Summary - Total electricity generation was 50.42 billion kWh, down 10.7% year-on-year, with total electricity sales at 47.47 billion kWh, also down 10.7% [2] - The average electricity price was 0.386 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 5.6% year-on-year, while the cost per kWh was 0.354 yuan, down approximately 3.1% [2] - Total electricity revenue was 18.3 billion yuan, down 15.7% year-on-year, with electricity costs at 16.8 billion yuan, down 13.5% [3] Dividend and Future Outlook - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.26 yuan per share for 2024, yielding a dividend rate of 5.8% based on the April 25 closing price [3] - The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of 65% for 2025-2027, an increase from the previous 60% [3] - The acquisition of Hangjin Energy is expected to enhance resource capabilities, with significant coal and power generation assets [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 297.6 billion yuan, 289.5 billion yuan, and 289.4 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 12.04%, 2.73%, and 0.03% respectively [4] - Expected net profits for the same period are 48.5 billion yuan, 47.5 billion yuan, and 47.6 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -17.4%, -1.9%, and +0.12% [4] - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is projected at 15.86, 16.17, and 16.15 for the respective years, with price-to-book ratios of 1.75, 1.70, and 1.66 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue for 2024 but an increase in net profit, primarily affected by unexpected carbon emission expenses [1] Financial Performance - 2024 revenue was 22.294 billion yuan, down 1.03% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.325 billion yuan, up 15.98% year-on-year, but below the expected 2.512 billion yuan due to additional carbon emission costs of 276 million yuan [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue decreased by 9.33% to 5.052 billion yuan, and net profit fell by 16.25% to 744 million yuan, also below the expected range of 871-977 million yuan [1] Dividend Policy - The company declared a dividend per share (DPS) of 0.22 yuan (before tax) for 2024, corresponding to a dividend yield of 5.45% [1] - The total dividend payout accounted for 61.75% of the net profit attributable to shareholders and 71.9% of the distributable profits, exceeding the commitment of at least 70% [1] Electricity Pricing - In 2024, the company's on-grid electricity volume decreased by 3.51% to 54.297 billion kWh, mainly due to a 7.02% drop in electricity volume sent to the North China grid [2] - The average on-grid electricity price (excluding tax) for 2024 was 336.46 yuan/MWh, down 2.17% year-on-year, with a smaller decline compared to 6.23% in 2023 [2] - In Q1 2025, the average on-grid electricity price increased by 3.57% to 363.11 yuan/MWh, driven by increased peak-shaving revenue and a decrease in on-grid electricity volume [2] Coal Sector Performance - In 2024, the coal segment saw both volume and price increases, with external sales volume rising by 16.89% to 7.2803 million tons, despite a downward trend in market coal prices [3] - The external sales price (excluding tax) was 402.21 yuan/ton, up 0.18% year-on-year [3] - In Q1 2025, external sales volume increased by 0.39% to 1.5608 million tons, but the external sales price dropped by 14.03% to 358.7 yuan/ton due to a decline in raw coal calorific value [3] Price Target and Rating - The target price is set at 5.01 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [4] - Adjustments were made to the 2025-26 on-grid electricity volume and external coal prices, leading to a downward revision of net profit expectations for those years by 19% and 21% respectively [4] - The expected net profit for 2027 is projected to be 2.739 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.36/0.39/0.42 yuan for 2025-2027 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 5.01 RMB [7][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 22.29 billion RMB in 2024, a slight decrease of 1.03% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.33 billion RMB, an increase of 15.98% year-on-year, although below the expected 2.51 billion RMB due to unexpected carbon emission expenses [1]. - The company achieved a dividend per share (DPS) of 0.22 RMB, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.45%, with total dividends accounting for 61.75% of net profit attributable to shareholders, exceeding the commitment of at least 70% of distributable profits [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of 9.33% year-on-year to 5.05 billion RMB and a net profit decrease of 16.25% year-on-year to 744 million RMB, primarily due to lower coal quality and external coal prices [1][3]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue for 2024 was 22.29 billion RMB, with a projected decline of 3.73% for 2025, followed by a slight recovery in 2026 and 2027 [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.33 billion RMB in 2025, with a gradual increase to 2.74 billion RMB by 2027 [6]. - The report indicates a projected EPS of 0.36 RMB for 2025, increasing to 0.42 RMB by 2027 [6]. Electricity Pricing and Coal Segment - The average on-grid electricity price for 2024 is expected to decrease by 2.17% to 336.46 RMB/MWh, with a recovery in Q1 2025 showing a 3.57% increase to 363.11 RMB/MWh [2]. - The coal segment saw an increase in external sales volume by 16.89% to 7.28 million tons in 2024, with external coal prices slightly up by 0.18% to 402.21 RMB/ton [3]. - In Q1 2025, external coal sales volume remained stable, but prices dropped by 14.03% to 358.7 RMB/ton due to declining coal quality [3]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of 5.01 RMB is based on a 14.0x PE ratio for 2024, reflecting a higher ROE and dividend level compared to comparable companies [4]. - The report adjusts the 2025-2026 net profit forecasts down by 19% and 21% respectively, due to various operational challenges [4]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 26.37 billion RMB, with a closing price of 4.04 RMB as of April 25, 2025 [9].

行业观点 方正证券发布研报称，当前煤炭现货价格跌破长协基准价格，后期可关注长协价格对现货价格的支撑作 用。此前该行认为煤价当前价格附近有一定支撑，公式定价的长协价格受影响较小，长协占比较高业绩 稳定性较强。新资金的流入使红利有望成为2025年的投资主线。此外能提升经营久期、回收让利，提升 经营抗风险能力的煤电联营模式，有望在2025年成为市场关注焦点。 方正证券主要观点如下： 投资观点 在低利率环境下高股息板块依旧值得重视，而对中长期资金而言高股息是其投资主要选择，尤其是险 资、社保基金等，新资金的流入使红利有望成为2025年的投资主线。此外能提升经营久期、回收让利， 提升经营抗风险能力的煤电联营模式，有望在2025年成为市场关注焦点。 投资逻辑一 在供需环境、价格水平、行业利润均有望稳中向好的当下，行业高分红股息标的优势逐渐显著，建议关 注资源禀赋优秀，经营业绩稳定且分红比例预期较高的标的：中国神华（601088）、陕西煤业 （601225）、中煤能源（601898）。 投资逻辑二 本周煤价再度下行，至655元后止跌，价格一度跌破长协基准线675元。由于近两个月煤价下行，部分产 地部分地区煤矿开启检修，产地 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is experiencing a renewed verification of its dividend attributes, suggesting a favorable window for investment during this period [1] - The report indicates that coal prices have stabilized after a decline, with current prices hovering around 680-690 yuan per ton, which is expected to provide support for future pricing [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend yields in the current low-interest-rate environment, making coal stocks attractive for long-term investors [5][6] Summary by Sections Industry and Company Market Review - The coal index increased by 4.84%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.26 percentage points [9] - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the coal industry is 10.54, which is lower than the CSI 300's PE of 12.82, indicating a discount of 17.78% [12] Supply and Demand Analysis - The capacity utilization rate of 462 sample coal mines is 96.3%, up by 1.5 percentage points week-on-week [19] - The average daily output of these coal mines is 579.5 thousand tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.4 thousand tons [19] Price Trends - As of March 14, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 681 yuan per ton, down by 7 yuan or 1.02% from the previous week [30] - The report notes that the price of thermal coal in major production areas has seen increases, with prices in Ordos and Yulin rising by 15 yuan and 60 yuan respectively [30] Key Company Announcements - Shaanxi Coal's 2024 performance report shows a 4.13% increase in raw coal production to 170 million tons, while total revenue increased by 1.47% to 184.145 billion yuan [47] - China Shenhua reported a 1.9% increase in coal production for February 2025, totaling 27 million tons [48]