Core Viewpoint - The new season corn supply is increasing as it enters October, leading to a significant price drop, particularly in North China due to continuous rainfall affecting quality and supply reliance on Northeast corn [1][3][6]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The new season corn from Northeast China is of higher quality and quantity compared to last year, with a potential price increase of up to 200 yuan/ton expected in the second and third quarters of next year [1][8]. - In early October, the average price drop for corn in Northeast and North China was 161 yuan/ton and 46 yuan/ton respectively, with a national average price of 2181 yuan/ton, reflecting a 5.05% decrease from late September [1][3]. - The price difference between North and Northeast China reached 200 yuan/ton, allowing Northeast corn to be sold in North China [3][6]. Market Dynamics - Continuous rainfall in North China has led to a slowdown in corn harvesting and a decline in quality, resulting in reliance on Northeast corn to meet feed demand [3][5]. - The transportation costs for Northeast corn are decreasing, enhancing its competitiveness in external markets, with reductions of 25%-50% reported for various routes [6][8]. - The market is expected to experience downward pressure on prices in the fourth quarter due to an increase in supply and low-quality corn needing to be digested by deep processing enterprises [6][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the fourth quarter, it is the period of concentrated supply of new-season corn. In October, the pressure of harvest and concentrated listing is relatively large. The supply-demand structure is temporarily imbalanced, leading to a situation where prices are more likely to fall than rise. The price of new-season corn has been declining. Since October, continuous rainy weather in the North China production area has led to a decline in corn quality, adding additional short-term price pressure. The production situation in the Northeast production area is good, with mainly sunny weather. After continuous declines, prices have recently stopped falling, mainly due to the excessive short-term decline. The maximum decline in the price of damp grain has exceeded 150 yuan/ton. Additionally, the decrease in the proportion of high-quality corn in the North China production area provides some support for the Northeast production area. Local deep-processing enterprises in the Northeast may initiate grain-locking actions, helping prices to stop falling. Overall, although not pessimistic about the medium- to long-term corn prices, currently it is still the peak period of new-season corn listing, and prices are still under pressure. Bullish factors need to accumulate and ferment, and it is difficult to say that prices will stabilize and rise in the short term. Attention should be paid to the price performance at the end of the month and early November [1]. - The corn futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange took an important step in the bottom-finding process yesterday. Multiple contracts declined simultaneously. The main November contract fell below the 2,100-yuan mark, becoming the first corn contract this year to break through this level. The decline in far-month contracts weakened successively, and the month-spread structure steepened. The number of registered warehouse receipts increased significantly, highlighting the pressure on the spot market [1]. - The price of CBOT corn futures is consolidating at a low level, waiting for further guidance from the USDA's October supply and demand report [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bullish Factors - The import volume of corn and grains remains at a low level, providing a basis for the improvement of the medium-term corn supply-demand structure [5]. - The pressure of domestic corn production increase is limited, and it is expected to show resilience after the seasonal pressure passes [5]. - The purchasing sentiment in the Northeast production area has increased, and prices have stopped falling [5]. Bearish Factors - The pig industry is in the process of production capacity regulation, which may affect the medium-term feed demand for corn [3]. - The release of the new-season supply pressure still needs a process, and prices are in the bottom-finding or bottom-grinding stage [3]. - In the past two days, there have been many trucks arriving in Shandong, and deep-processing enterprises generally purchase at reduced prices [3]. Corn & Starch Spot Prices and Main Continuous Basis | Location | Corn Price & Basis | Today's Change | Location | Corn Starch Price & Basis | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jinzhou Port | 2,150 | -20 | Shandong | 2,740 | -10 | | Shekou Port | 2,330 | -40 | Jilin | 2,550 | -10 | | Harbin | 2,020 | 0 | Heilongjiang | 2,480 | 0 | | Jinzhou Port Main Continuous Basis | 58 | 13 | Shandong Main Continuous Basis | 339 | 21 | [3] Corn & Starch Futures Prices | Contract | 2025-10-10 | 2025-10-13 | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn 11 | 2,125 | 2,092 | -33 | -1.55% | | Corn 01 | 2,125 | 2,106 | -19 | -0.89% | | Corn 03 | 2,140 | 2,125 | -15 | -0.70% | | Corn 05 | 2,204 | 2,192 | -12 | -0.54% | | Corn 07 | 2,216 | 2,209 | -7 | -0.32% | | Corn 09 | 2,226 | 2,226 | 0 | 0.00% | | Corn Starch 11 | 2,432 | 2,401 | -31 | -1.27% | | Corn Starch 01 | 2,430 | 2,402 | -28 | -1.15% | | Corn Starch 03 | 2,440 | 2,416 | -24 | -0.98% | | Corn Starch 05 | 2,531 | 2,515 | -16 | -0.63% | | Corn Starch 07 | 2,535 | 2,524 | -11 | -0.43% | | Corn Starch 09 | 2,578 | 2,573 | -5 | -0.19% | | Wheat Average Price | 2,462 | 2,464 | 2 | 0.08% | [3][6] U.S. Corn Prices and Import Profits | Item | Price | Daily Change | Increase Rate | Import Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Corn Main Continuous | 410.5 | -3 | -0.73% | | | COBT Soybean Main Continuous | 1,008.25 | 1.25 | 0.12% | | | CBOT Wheat Main Continuous | 496.75 | -2 | -0.4% | | | U.S. Gulf Port Duty-Paid Price | 2,089.08 | -22.55 | -1.07% | 280.92 | | U.S. West Coast Duty-Paid Price | 1,940.85 | -16.5 | -0.84% | 429.15 | [27]

南华期货玉米&淀粉产业日报 2025年10月10日 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z0021819） 康全贵（从业资格证号：F03148699） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾】 四季度处于新季玉米集中供应期，10月份收获以及集中上市压力较大，供需结构阶段性失衡导致价格易跌难 涨，新季玉米价格高开后一路走低； 连盘玉米期货震荡下跌运行，继续消化新季上市带来的供应压力，价格重心有进一步下移可能，关注因上量 冲击造成价格超跌带来的底部机会； CBOT玉米期价低位盘整，等待美国农业部10月供需报告的进一步指引； 【利多因素】 1、玉米及谷物进口数量维持低水平，为中期玉米供需结构改善提供基础； 4、10月7日，农业农村部召开会议，调度秋粮抢收抢烘和秋冬种情况。强调全力应对黄淮海地区持续连阴雨 天气影响，切实抓好秋粮抢收抢烘和秋冬种工作，及时协调解决基层困难，全力以赴做好黄淮海地区"三秋"生 产工作。 【利空因素】 1、生猪产业处于产能调控过程中，或中期影响玉米饲用需求； 玉米&淀粉现货价格及主连基差 | 玉米 | 价格&基差 | 今日涨跌 | 玉米淀粉 | 价格&基差 | 今日涨跌 | | -- ...

Core Viewpoint - The corn market is experiencing a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics, with expectations of increased production and potential price fluctuations following the National Day holiday. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - As of September 24, corn inventory at 96 major processing enterprises across 12 regions in China is approximately 2.12 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 20% [1] - The opening price for new season corn is higher than last year due to a combination of factors including reduced imports and strong downstream demand [1] - The anticipated corn yield for this year is expected to increase by about 10% year-on-year, with the highest yield in five years reported from recent field surveys [3] Group 2: Demand Factors - There is a potential for a seasonal rebound in corn demand in Q4, driven by high pig inventory levels and increased feedstock replenishment needs due to low current inventories [1] - The demand from the livestock sector is constrained by policies aimed at reducing breeding stock and current losses in farming profits, leading to cautious stocking behavior among feed manufacturers [2] - The fourth quarter is traditionally a peak consumption period for starch and alcohol, which may lead to a seasonal increase in demand from deep processing enterprises [1][2] Group 3: Price Outlook - Following the National Day holiday, an influx of new corn is expected to exert downward pressure on prices, with potential price declines anticipated [3] - Despite the expected supply pressure, a balance between supply and demand, along with policy interventions, may limit the extent of price declines, stabilizing prices near cost levels [4] - If corn prices fall to around 2000 yuan per ton, there may be a significant release of replenishment demand from downstream enterprises, providing upward price momentum [4]

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货玉米季报 2025 年 09 月 26 日 主要结论 国际市场来看，继续南美巴西、阿根廷增产之后，北半球的美国、乌克兰产 量预估再次增加，若最终产量兑现，全球玉米市场仍将维持相对宽松的环境，国 际玉米价格将延续低位运行。国内方面，目前产情总体较好，预计产量较上年有 一定增长，且成本下降，未来上市压力较大。旧作来说，尽管粮源较少，但新旧 衔接问题不大，持粮商出货积极性较高。需求端来看，近期小麦与玉米价差有所 修复，后期饲料企业或调回玉米使用比例。但在养殖行业利润低迷且政策引导去 产能的预期下，其大幅增加库存动力有限。深加工方面，整体经济增长疲软、外 部贸易环境复杂、居民收入增速放缓等多重不利因素压制，终端消费表现较差， 深加工利润不佳，行业开机率下降，深加工需求难觅亮点。总体来看，短期旧作 余粮偏紧，对现货及近端合约有一定支撑，但在新上市压力将近背景下，整体玉 米市场中期仍然是处于承压寻底阶段。不过，考虑到去年贸易商囤粮盈利较好， 25/26 年新玉米上市后贸易商逢低抄底意愿或有提升，从而限制玉米继续下跌空 间。操作上，偏弱震荡对待。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2 ...

据对全国500个县集贸市场和采集点的监测，9月第3周（采集日为9月18日），全国玉米平均价格2.49 元/公斤，与前一周持平，同比下跌0.4%。主产区东北三省玉米价格2.32元/公斤，比前一周下跌0.4%。 （9月22日）今日全国玉米价格一览表 西南期货研报：短期国内玉米供需趋向平衡，消费延续回暖，陈粮较为紧俏，港口库存快速回归，库存 压力减退，基差偏强。1-7月玉米进口锐减，进口毛利水平仍偏高，后续进口或有上量空间；中储粮玉 米网拍持续净销售，进口玉米持续轮出，北方主产区玉米逐步开始收获，丰产预期较强，成本或下修， 玉米价格上方或有一定压力，或观望为宜。 【市场资讯】 9月22日，大商所玉米期货仓单30320手，环比上个交易日减少338手。 美国干旱监测报告显示，截至9月16日，玉米处于干旱区的比例为25%，一周前13%，去年同期26%。 | 规格 | 报价 | 报价类型 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种:黄玉米 ;等级:3 ;水分:14% ; | 2400元/吨 | 市场价 | 广东省/深圳市 | 广东蛇口港市场 | | 品种:黄玉米 ; ...

进口玉米拍卖成交情况也能从一定程度上验证饲用玉米需求的增加。进入9月份，进口玉米持续拍卖， 成交率明显回升。截至9月12日，进口玉米拍卖共进行22期，拍卖总量654万吨，成交量157万吨，平均 成交率24%。进入9月份，进口玉米拍卖量平均每期19.17万吨，环比8月降幅2.04%。但成交率升至 34%，较8月末最低成交率8%提高26个百分点。这既能说明市场上陈粮供应减少，也能说明饲料需求增 加。（备注：进口玉米拍卖的主要消费领域是饲料企业，深加工企业倾向于使用合同粮、消耗库存或采 购新粮） 综上所述，9-10月份东北陈粮供应收紧，且新粮有一定的后熟期，下游存在刚需，预计新粮集中上市前 东北优质养殖粮价格较坚挺，价格涨幅或在40-50元／吨，市场仍需轮换粮、进口玉米拍卖进行有效补 充。 分析其原因，虽然从需求端来看，养殖环节的刚需支撑东北及全国玉米均价上涨，但东北陈粮库存持续 减少，且明显低于去年同期水平，则是导致东北玉米价格强于全国市场平均表现的根本原因。 由于2024/25季东北玉米售粮进度整体表现为前快后慢的特点，进入9月份，贸易环节陈粮库存持续减 少，并降至近五年同期的较低水平。虽然8-9月份南方产区及 ...

Group 1 - The main corn futures contract experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 2187.00 yuan, with a current price of 2181.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 1.02% [1] - Donghai Futures indicates that corn prices have entered a relatively undervalued range, with the new season's pricing weight increasing and the C2511 contract entering last year's pricing range of 2100-2200 yuan/ton [2] - Southwest Futures notes that there may be upward pressure on corn prices, as domestic supply and demand are tending towards balance, and the expectation of a strong new season yield may lead to cost adjustments [3] Group 2 - Green Dahan Futures suggests that short-term corn spot prices are expected to remain weak and stable, with sufficient supply due to ongoing imports and local spring corn entering the market [4] - The overall sentiment in the corn market is cautious, with a focus on policy direction and the impact of planting costs on future pricing [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the supply of corn in Northeast China is slightly loose due to continuous replenishment of rotation grain and active outflow from traders, while demand remains at a seasonal low, leading to a gradual decline in market prices [1][3][5] - As of August 22, the average price of corn in the Northeast market dropped from 2252 yuan/ton to 2230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.98% [1] - The expected trend for corn prices in early September is downward, with a projected decline of around 20 yuan/ton, as the demand for feed corn is unlikely to increase significantly [7] Group 2 - The feed production has not shown seasonal growth characteristics, with only two years in the past five showing an increase in September feed production, primarily due to the demand not recovering to normal levels [3][5] - The total livestock population in August was 2.382 billion, a decrease of 0.78% from July, with significant declines in the populations of broiler chickens and pigs [5] - The expected livestock population in September is projected to decrease to 2.362 billion, with a decline in broiler chickens and laying hens, while the pig population is expected to increase by 2.02% [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The corn purchasing prices for deep processing enterprises in Northeast China have been rising, but the market outlook suggests a downward pressure on corn prices due to limited new corn procurement and the upcoming new harvest in mid-September [1][6]. Group 1: Price Trends - In early August, the average corn purchasing price for deep processing enterprises in Northeast China reached its highest point of the year at 2242 yuan/ton, which is slightly higher than July's average by 2 yuan/ton but lower than last year's August average by 31.5 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 1.39% [1]. - The overall corn prices have increased this year, putting significant pressure on deep processing enterprises [3]. Group 2: Purchasing Volume - From January to June, the monthly corn purchasing volume for Northeast deep processing enterprises showed a downward trend, with a rebound in July where the total purchasing volume reached 960,000 tons, a 16% increase month-on-month but a 7% decrease year-on-year [3]. - The total corn purchasing volume from January to July was approximately 8.83 million tons, representing a 24% decrease compared to the same period last year [3]. Group 3: Inventory and Demand - As of early August, the average corn inventory days for deep processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces was about 39 days, with limited new corn procurement expected before the new harvest [5]. - The operating load of major deep processing industries showed a declining trend in July, with a month-on-month decrease of 2 to 13 percentage points [5]. - Seasonal demand for corn products like starch and lysine is expected to recover slightly in late August due to reduced high temperatures and the back-to-school season, but new corn demand is unlikely to see significant increases [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market outlook indicates that from August to September, deep processing enterprises in Northeast China will primarily rely on contract grain and inventory, with limited new corn demand, leading to a high probability of downward pressure on corn prices [6]. - It is anticipated that the mainstream corn prices in Northeast China will decline by 50-100 yuan/ton from mid-August to mid-September due to the increasing supply from other regions and the narrowing sales window for old grain [6].