在通过避险交易大赚一笔后，黄金多头正大举转向白银——这一"穷人的黄金"被押注为贵金属市场的下一个超级风口。 白银的爆发式上涨正值黄金资深投资者开始撤退之际。 Motilal Oswal金融服务公司此前在印度金价达到3万卢比时看多，目标5万卢比，却在本月初收手。"我们已见证超30%的涨幅，而过去25年数据显示，纽约 商品交易所（Comex）黄金单年涨幅从未超过32%，"该券商指出，"价格处于高位已显现市场疲态。" Goldilocks Premium Research的高塔姆·沙阿（Gautam Shah）曾陪伴黄金从1800美元涨至3500美元，却在上月清空了黄金头寸。 "黄金的利多因素已基本被定价，正进入长期盘整阶段，且这一趋势将持续，"沙阿说，"但过去几个月，我们对白银始终极度看好。" 过去三个月，白银ETF涨幅飙升约18%，远超黄金ETF仅4%的温和回报，投机者纷纷抛弃涨幅过高的黄金，涌入白银。 周一现货白银站上39美元/盎司，续创2011年9月以来新高，今年迄今涨幅扩大至35%。 白银此次涨势的导火索是美国总统特朗普宣布的新关税政策：自8月1日起，对加拿大进口商品加征35%关税，对其他多数贸易伙伴普遍 ...

Price Surge - Silver prices have surged significantly in 2023, with spot silver exceeding $36 per ounce in early July, marking a 36% increase year-to-date, outperforming gold's 25% rise during the same period [1] - The physical silver investment market has seen a strong uptick, with a 40% increase in sales of silver bars and ingots, and a 30% year-on-year rise in recycling prices, reaching approximately $33 per ounce [2] Market Drivers - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to multiple structural factors, including heightened geopolitical risks, strong industrial demand, and a shift in investment from gold to silver due to valuation corrections [3] - The expansion of the photovoltaic industry is expected to create a silver supply gap of 117 million ounces by 2025, providing fundamental support for silver prices [5] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a diversified investment approach, including physical silver assets and financial derivatives like silver ETFs, while maintaining strict position management to mitigate risks [6][7] - A "dumbbell strategy" is recommended, allocating 20%-40% to safer assets like government bonds to balance silver investment risks [7] Future Outlook - Short-term silver price movements may face volatility, with potential downward pressure if global trade tensions ease or if the Federal Reserve delays easing measures [5] - Long-term trends remain bullish, with potential price targets of $38-$40 per ounce if silver breaks through the $37 resistance level [5]

Core Insights - The global silver market is experiencing a historic breakthrough, with spot silver prices stabilizing above $36, nearing a 13-year high, and rising for six consecutive trading days [1] - The World Bank's latest report predicts a 17% increase in silver prices by 2025, driven by both industrial and financial attributes [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand gap for silver is widening due to stagnant growth in global silver mining and a high by-product silver ratio of 70%, compounded by rising ESG costs and frequent strikes in major producing countries [3] - COMEX inventory saw a reduction of 2.46 tons on June 24, while ETF holdings increased by 127.21 tons, indicating institutional recognition of silver's long-term value [3] - Demand is structurally surging, with silver usage in photovoltaic applications expected to grow at an annual rate of 5.7%, reaching 7,560 tons by 2025, accounting for 34% of industrial demand [3] - In the electric vehicle sector, silver usage per vehicle is projected to increase by 71% to 35 grams, leading to an additional demand of 1,400 tons from an annual production of 40 million vehicles [3] Group 2: Financial Attributes and Market Trends - The current gold-silver ratio stands at 91:1, significantly deviating from the historical average of 40-70:1, which has historically led to substantial price increases for silver during previous corrections [4] - The anticipated onset of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle is expected to enhance silver's holding value, with a greater than 70% probability of rate cuts by Q3 2025 [4] - Recent data shows an increase in silver options volatility, with the SVXY index rising from 35 to 48, reflecting heightened market expectations for price fluctuations [4] Group 3: Trading Platform Innovations - The company has developed a three-tiered protective system to address common industry pain points such as data fraud and slow withdrawals [5] - The trading platform offers a fully transparent trading chain, with unique transaction codes for verification and compliance with FCA transparency requirements [5] - An intelligent risk control system dynamically adjusts leverage based on market volatility, effectively managing risk during market downturns [5] - The platform's cost optimization mechanism features lower spreads and an instant rebate system, allowing high-frequency traders to save significant costs [5] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Short-term strategies focus on opportunities arising from the Fed's anticipated rate cuts, with bullish signals identified when silver prices exceed $34.5 per ounce [6][7] - Long-term strategies recommend increasing silver allocation in core asset portfolios to 10%-15%, leveraging the platform's dynamic leverage adjustments and rapid withdrawal features to manage extreme market conditions [6][7] - The strategic opportunity in the silver market is characterized by industrial demand and financial recovery, positioning the company as a reliable partner for investors navigating market cycles [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report believes that silver has entered a strong upward channel in price, and it is expected to break through 10,000 yuan/kg in Q3 2025. Despite short - term technical corrections due to factors like the Fed's hawkish stance and high inventory pressure, the rigid supply - demand gap and the momentum for gold - silver ratio repair remain unchanged. Investors are advised to build long positions in batches on dips to await the dual catalysts of macro - impacts and supply - demand gaps in the second half of the year [2][3][25]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Environment - The global monetary easing cycle continues. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, with a more than 50% probability in July and a 52% probability in September. The actual interest rate is on a downward trend, which will significantly reduce the opportunity cost of holding silver. China has released liquidity through MLF and reserve requirement ratio cuts, and the ECB has cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, with further cuts likely. Historically, silver has usually outperformed gold during interest - rate decline periods [3][4][5]. - Geopolitical risks are escalating. In the Middle East, the US military's air - strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and the threat of a larger - scale attack, along with the discussion of closing the Hormuz Strait by Iran, will push up inflation and risk - aversion premiums. The continuation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the intensification of global trade frictions have increased the VIX panic index by 15% compared to 2023, leading to a shift of funds from risky assets to precious metals. Silver has a more prominent risk - aversion elasticity [9][10]. - The global "de - dollarization" process is accelerating. Central banks' silver - buying trend continues, with a 1230 - ton purchase in 2024 (18% year - on - year increase). The US stable - coin bill exposes the internal contradictions of the US monetary system, and emerging markets are diversifying their foreign - exchange reserves by increasing precious - metal holdings, including silver [12]. 2. Supply - Demand Pattern - Supply growth is weak. Global silver production decreased by 2% in 2024. The supply is constrained by factors such as the scarcity of silver mines and recycling bottlenecks. In 2025, the global silver supply gap is expected to reach 117.6 million ounces (about 3659 tons), marking the fifth consecutive year of shortage [3][15]. - Demand is expanding. The recovery of the global semiconductor industry and the acceleration of 5G base - station construction have increased the demand for industrial silver. The demand for silver coins and bars is expected to grow by more than 7% in 2025 [17]. 3. Financial Attribute - The current gold - silver ratio is as high as 94, far exceeding the historical average range of 60 - 80. Historically, after the gold - silver ratio exceeded 80, it was usually repaired through the accelerated rise of silver. If the ratio returns to 80, based on the current COMEX gold price of $3400/ounce, the corresponding silver price would be $42.5/ounce, equivalent to over 10,000 yuan/kg in the domestic market [3][18][20]. - The historical performance of silver shows that in 2011, it once exceeded $35/ounce and then reached $49.5/ounce in less than two months. Recently, it has broken through $35/ounce again, indicating that a bull - market rally can be expected [22].

Core Insights - Silver prices have surged 27% this year, reaching a multi-year high, driven by dual demand from investors and industrial buyers [1] - Unlike gold, which is primarily used for wealth storage, 80% of silver demand comes from manufacturing, particularly from solar panel manufacturers [1][4] - The current spot price of silver is $35.94, with a 12% increase observed this month [1] Group 1: Industrial Demand - Industrial demand is the main driver of silver prices, with 80% of demand stemming from manufacturing [4] - Stable consumption of silver in cutlery and electronics, alongside strong demand from solar panel manufacturers, supports price increases [3][4] - Analysts warn that if prices rise excessively, manufacturers may switch to cheaper metal alternatives [3] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Individual investors are increasingly purchasing silver, with the iShares Silver Trust ETF adding nearly 11 million ounces this year to meet demand [5] - The Honest Coin Shop in New Jersey has seen a 20% increase in customer traffic, primarily from investors hoarding silver to hedge against economic uncertainty [5] - Despite high prices, many customers continue to buy silver regularly, fearing they might miss out on the price surge [5] Group 3: Silver Coin and Jewelry Market - The rising prices have sparked a "silver rush" across the U.S., with people searching for old silver coins and items to sell [3][6] - The melt value of pre-1965 25-cent coins exceeds $6.50, significantly higher than their face value [6] - Customers are increasingly looking to sell inherited or unused jewelry and silverware, opting to liquidate their assets [8] Group 4: Historical Context - Analysts believe it will be challenging for silver prices to surpass the 1980 record of $48.70 per ounce, which adjusted for inflation would be over $200 today [8] - The historical context of price surges and subsequent crashes, such as the Hunt brothers' attempt to control the market, is relevant to current market dynamics [8]

国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 官 方 网 站 服 热线 客 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/6/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX更金 | CONEX日银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/登司) | (美元/盗司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/6/9 | 3324. 93 | 36. 30 | 3345. 70 | 36. 51 | 774.72 | 8909.0 ...

Market Analysis - The index successfully surpassed the 3357 point level, which is a significant concentration area for trading, indicating a high probability of further upward movement towards 3389 points [1][4] - Following the initial touch of 3389 points, the index experienced a slight pullback, closing at 3385 points, suggesting that it has not yet firmly established above the 3389 point level [4] - The market outlook indicates that as long as the index does not fall below 3357 points during any pullbacks, the likelihood of breaking through 3389 points remains high, with a potential target of over 3405 points in the coming week [6][8] Silver Market Performance - The silver market has shown remarkable performance, significantly outperforming gold, driven by multiple factors including a historical high gold-silver ratio of 1:100, indicating silver's relative undervaluation [9] - The surge in silver prices is also attributed to the booming renewable energy sector, particularly the demand for silver in photovoltaic panels, with an expected supply gap of 8800 tons by 2025 [9] - Investor enthusiasm is reflected in the nearly 8% increase in silver ETF holdings since February, with notable stock performances from companies like Silver Holdings and Hunan Silver, indicating strong market sentiment [9]

国家外汇管理局近日公布的数据显示，央行连续7个月增持黄金。 券商中国记者注意到，近日券商分析师纷纷对央行购金及未来黄金走势进行进一步解读。分析师普遍认为，中 长期来看，各国央行对于黄金的储备仍有进一步提升空间，央行购金行为有望延续，预计未来金价仍有提升空 间。 除了黄金之外，一些机构还直言看好短期白银投资机会。 机构：央行黄金储备份额提升空间依然广阔 国家外汇管理局近日公布的数据显示，截至5月末，我国外汇储备规模为32853亿美元，较4月末上升36亿美 元，升幅为0.11%。其中，黄金储备为7383万盎司，环比增加6万盎司，为央行连续7个月增持。 国金证券最新解读称，央行购金需求或为中长期趋势，阶段性高点或出现在"美债危机"。一方面，美元信用走 弱甚至触及"美债违约"风险，均将支撑央行购金需求；另一方面，逆全球化风险尤其贸易谈判不确定性上升的 背景下，全球央行或继续增持黄金以提升储备资产的安全性和多元化。中长期维度下，央行黄金储备份额提升 空间依然广阔。 浙商证券首席经济学家李超认为，预计黄金未来仍有进一步提升空间。中长期来看应重点关注各国央行的购金 行为对黄金价格的正向驱动，预计来自各国央行的资金有望保持净 ...

Group 1 - Recent surge in silver futures and spot prices has broken historical resistance levels, with Shanghai silver futures reaching a record of 8855 yuan/kg and spot silver hitting 36.27 USD/oz, the highest since March 2012 [2] - The current rise in silver prices is attributed to multiple factors, including internal demand for precious metals and strong industrial demand, indicating that silver's financial attributes have been previously underestimated [2] - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from a previous high of 100 to around 94, still significantly above the historical average of 60-80, suggesting ongoing valuation recovery potential for silver [2] Group 2 - The industrial aspect of silver is also contributing to price increases, with a tight supply-demand balance expected to lead to a shortage of 117.6 million ounces by 2025, driven by stable growth in demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector [3] - The European countries' loose fiscal and monetary policies are expected to boost industrial and investment demand, further enhancing silver's price elasticity after breaking last year's high resistance [3] - While the silver market appears promising, it remains uncertain, with future dynamics needing to consider the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and U.S. tariff policies, although the overall upward trend is expected to continue [3]

当地时间6月5日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基在社交媒体上透露，凌晨时分，俄罗斯出动六架无人机对切尔尼戈夫州的普里卢基发动袭击。此次袭击造成了人员伤 亡，救援行动持续一整夜。 泽连斯基还表示，在当天凌晨， 俄罗斯发动了一场大规模的袭击行动，共动用103架无人机和一枚弹道导弹，目标涵盖顿涅茨克、哈尔科夫、敖德萨、苏 梅、切尔尼戈夫、第聂伯罗和赫尔松地区 。 5日，乌克兰空军通报称，自4日22时30分起，俄军使用1枚"伊斯坎德尔-M"/KN-23弹道导弹和103架攻击型无人机袭击了乌克兰。截至5日10时，乌军击 落了74架攻击型无人机。此次袭击导致切尔尼戈夫、哈尔科夫和敖德萨州受影响。 俄方对此暂无回应。 市场方面，黄金白银突然拉升。截至发稿， 现货黄金涨0.63%，站上3400美元/盎司。 现货白银日内涨幅一度扩大至4.24%，现报35.801美元/盎司。 | < w | COMEX黄金 | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | GC.CMX | | | | 3420.7 昨结 | | 3399.2 总手 | 7.72万 | | +21.5 | +0.63% 开盘 | 3398.0 现手 ...