【导读】沪银暴涨创新高 大家好，今晚美国那边过圣诞节，股市休市，我们简单看点别的消息。 沪银创下新高 12月25日晚间，贵金属期货走强，沪银夜盘涨超18000元/千克，创历史新高，当前涨幅接近5%。 不过，预算增幅仍显著高于通胀水平，因为日本人口老龄化带来社保支出需求上升。文件显示，社保支 出将从本财年的38.3万亿日元上升至39.1万亿日元。此次较大的初始预算同样体现出高市愿意动用财政 支持来巩固经济增长。 另外，国投白银LOF发布公告称，将于26日开盘起至10:30停牌后复牌，并警示二级市场交易价格存在 明显溢价风险。截至12月25日，该基金二级市场收盘价为2.804元，较12月24日的基金份额单位净值 1.9278元高出45%。 有专业人士分析，限购不是为了制造稀缺，而是因为在交易所持仓上限和公募禁止高杠杆的双重制度约 束下，这只白银LOF已经达到可承载规模的物理极限。如果放开申购，新增资金将无法按合同买入对应 的白银期货，只能闲置或买债，从而严重稀释仓位、制造巨大的跟踪误差，构成对持有人和监管的违约 风险。因此，限购是基金公司在制度约束下唯一能采取的合规止损手段，而不是主观选择。 日本拟推出122万亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Guotou Silver LOF (161226)" fund experienced extreme volatility, with a significant price surge followed by a rapid decline, highlighting the risks associated with high premium investments in the context of soaring silver prices [1][2][5]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Market Dynamics - The "Guotou Silver LOF" fund saw a three-day consecutive limit-up, with a closing price of 3.116 yuan on December 24, representing a premium rate of up to 61.63% compared to its net value of 1.9278 yuan [1][2]. - Following warnings from fund companies and brokerages about risks, the fund was suspended and subsequently hit the limit down, with a closing price of 2.804 yuan on December 25, still showing a premium of over 40% [1][5]. - The fund's trading volume surged, with nearly 2 billion new shares added in just three days, indicating a strong speculative interest [4][11]. Group 2: Silver Price Surge and Its Implications - The recent surge in silver prices has been unprecedented, with COMEX silver prices increasing by 145.39% year-to-date, and the domestic silver futures contract rising by 135.73% [2][10]. - The influx of capital into the "Guotou Silver LOF" fund created a self-reinforcing cycle, where increased fund investments led to higher silver futures prices, attracting even more capital [2][10]. Group 3: Regulatory Responses and Market Risks - Regulatory bodies have issued multiple risk warnings regarding silver futures, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange implemented measures to mitigate risks associated with trading [5][13]. - The fund's arbitrage mechanism, which operates on a T+2 settlement basis, adds uncertainty for investors who purchased shares at high premiums, as they may face challenges in selling at favorable prices [5][13]. Group 4: Historical Context and Market Characteristics - The silver market is characterized by its smaller scale compared to gold, leading to more pronounced price volatility with similar capital inflows [6][14]. - Historical patterns of silver price surges and declines indicate a tendency for speculative bubbles, with past instances of rapid price increases followed by significant corrections [6][14]. - Current silver price dynamics are influenced by both short-term liquidity and long-term structural shortages, with a projected cumulative shortfall of approximately 25,500 tons from 2021 to 2025 [7][15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dramatic fluctuations of the "Guotou Silver LOF" fund, highlighting its rapid price increase followed by a significant drop, driven by the soaring silver prices and speculative trading behavior in the market [1][4][6]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Market Reaction - The "Guotou Silver LOF" fund experienced a three-day consecutive limit-up, with a closing price of 3.116 yuan on December 24, representing a premium rate of up to 61.63% compared to its net value of 1.9278 yuan [1][4]. - Following warnings from fund companies and brokerages about risks, the fund was suspended and subsequently hit the limit down, with a closing price of 2.804 yuan, still showing a premium of over 40% [1][6]. - The fund's trading volume surged, with nearly 2 billion shares added in just three days, indicating a strong influx of speculative capital [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Speculation - The surge in the "Guotou Silver LOF" was primarily driven by a historic increase in silver prices, with COMEX silver prices rising by 145.39% within the year, and domestic silver futures increasing by 135.73% [4]. - The fund's structure allowed for easy access to silver futures, creating a self-reinforcing cycle where inflows into the fund pushed up silver prices, attracting even more capital [4][5]. - The speculative nature of the silver market, characterized by its smaller size compared to gold, leads to more volatile price movements, which was evident in the recent trading frenzy [8][9]. Group 3: Regulatory Response and Risk Management - In response to the extreme price movements, regulatory bodies issued warnings and implemented measures to monitor abnormal trading activities, aiming to protect investors and maintain market order [5][6]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced multiple risk prevention measures for silver futures contracts, reflecting the heightened concern over market stability [5]. - The article emphasizes the importance of recognizing the high speculative nature of silver investments, especially in light of the recent price surges and potential for significant corrections [9].

Core Viewpoint - The "Guotou Silver LOF (161226)" fund experienced extreme volatility, with a significant price surge followed by a rapid decline, highlighting the speculative nature of silver investments and the impact of market dynamics on fund performance [2][4][6]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Market Dynamics - The "Guotou Silver LOF" fund saw a price increase from a net value of 1.9278 yuan to a closing price of 3.116 yuan on December 24, resulting in a peak premium rate of 61.63% [2]. - The fund's trading volume reached 2.705 billion shares by December 24, with nearly 200 million shares added in just three days, indicating a surge in investor interest [5]. - Following regulatory warnings and monitoring of abnormal trading, the fund was suspended and subsequently hit a price limit down, reflecting a rapid exit of capital from the market [6]. Group 2: Silver Market Trends - The price of silver has surged dramatically, with COMEX silver prices increasing by 145.39% year-to-date, and the domestic silver futures contract rising by 135.73% [4]. - The silver market is characterized by its smaller size compared to gold, leading to more pronounced price volatility in response to capital inflows [7]. - Historical patterns of silver price fluctuations indicate a tendency for rapid increases followed by sharp declines, influenced by speculative trading and regulatory interventions [7]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The World Silver Association reports a continuous supply shortage in the silver market, with a projected cumulative shortfall of approximately 25,500 tons from 2021 to 2025 [8]. - The dual factors of short-term liquidity and long-term structural shortages, combined with rising gold prices, have contributed to the current bullish sentiment in the silver market [8]. - Despite the industrial demand for silver, particularly in renewable energy applications, the current price levels may suppress future demand and increase the risk of a market correction [8].

Core Viewpoint - The "Guotou Silver LOF (161226)" fund experienced extreme volatility, with a significant price surge followed by a rapid decline, highlighting the speculative nature of silver investments and the impact of regulatory measures on market behavior [1][5][6]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Market Dynamics - The "Guotou Silver LOF" fund saw a price increase to 3.116 yuan, with a peak premium of 61.63% over its net value of 1.9278 yuan [1][4]. - The fund's trading volume reached 2.705 billion shares by December 24, with nearly 200 million shares added in just three days, indicating a surge in investor interest [4][6]. - Following regulatory warnings and monitoring of abnormal trading, the fund was suspended and subsequently hit a price limit down, reflecting a rapid exit of capital from the market [5][6]. Group 2: Silver Market Characteristics - The COMEX silver price increased by 145.39% in 2023, while the domestic silver futures tracked by the fund rose by 135.73%, demonstrating the strong correlation between the fund and silver prices [4]. - The silver market is characterized by its smaller size compared to gold, leading to more pronounced price volatility with similar capital inflows [7]. - Historical patterns show that silver has experienced significant price fluctuations, with past bubbles and crashes influenced by regulatory actions and market manipulation [7][8]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The World Silver Association reports a continuous supply shortage in the silver market, with a projected cumulative deficit of 25,500 tons from 2021 to 2025 [8]. - The dual dynamics of short-term liquidity and long-term structural shortages, combined with rising gold prices, have contributed to the current bullish sentiment in the silver market [8]. - Despite the industrial demand for silver driven by sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, the current high prices may suppress future demand, indicating potential risks for investors [8].

普通人现在该做什么？冷静比冲动重要面对这种历史性的价格，最忌讳的就是"追高"冲动消费。如果你完全没有黄金资产，又想配置一点作为家庭资产 的"压舱石"，那么可以采取"分批买入"的策略，比如每隔一两个月买一点银行投资金条，平摊成本，而不是一次性大笔投入。如果你是为了结婚、送礼等刚 性需求，那么金价高低你都得买，这时可以多比较不同品牌和渠道的工费，尽量节省一些。总之，黄金的本质是避险资产，它应该在家庭财务中扮演稳定剂 的角色，而不是让你心跳加速的投机工具。在众人狂热时保持一份冷静，总是不会错的。 最后问问大家，你有没有关注这波金价大涨？你手里有黄金资产吗，是考虑继续持有，还是打算趁高点变现？如果你现在想买，会更倾向于去品牌金店，还 是寻找更接近原料价的渠道呢？ 铂金和白银也疯狂，但市场小更刺激这次不光黄金，铂金和白银也跟着"疯"。铂金单日大涨近5%，白银也刷新纪录。不过，这两个市场和黄金比起来，规 模小得多。市场小，意味着价格波动会更剧烈，就像一艘小船在巨浪里，起伏比大船（黄金）猛得多。你看金店报价，铂金价格在不同品牌间差异巨大，莱 音459一克，金大福821一克，水贝570一克。这除了品牌因素，也反映出铂金饰品市 ...

记者丨叶麦穗 见习记者 林健民 编辑丨肖嘉 叶映橙 12月25日，国投白银LOF经过连续三个涨停之后，一开盘便被封死在跌停板上。 | W | 国投白银LOF(161226.SZ) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 交易中 12-25 14:31:06 | | | | | 2.804 | 昨收 | 3.116 | 流通盘 | 27.05亿 | | -0.312 -10.01% | 开盘 3.116 | | 流通值 | 76亿 | | 最高 | 3.116 成交量 2.7亿 | | 换手率 | 9.81% | | 最低 | 成交额 2.804 | 7.69亿 | 均价 | 2.899 | | IOPV | 0.0000 溢折率 0.00% | | 贴水率 | 45.45% | | | 净值走势 国投瑞银白银期货A(161226.OF) 1.9278 +4.05% | | | | | 分时 | 田 日K 周Ｋ | | 月K | 更多 | | 叠加 | | | 均价:2.899 | 盟口 成交 | | 3.428 | | | 10.01% | | | | | | ...

12月25日周四，国投白银LOF(161226)复牌后盘中触及10%跌停，成交额达5.65亿元，市场情绪出现明 显反转。 此前，在国际现货白银价格持续走高、屡创新高的背景下，作为国内唯一一只白银期货公募基金，国投 白银LOF迅速成为资金追逐的焦点。该基金连续3个交易日涨停，较11月28日收盘价实现价格翻倍，年 内收益率一度超过250%。甚至连与其代码相近的国投瑞盈LOF也因"乌龙"涨停。 本轮白银大幅上涨主要受到供需失衡、美联储降息预期以及资金集中流入等多重因素推动。但也有市场 观点认为，短期涨幅过快，回调风险正在累积。相较于黄金，白银市场规模更小，波动性更强，工业属 性和投机属性突出，价格更容易受到情绪和短期资金面的扰动，因此并不适合风险承受能力较低的投资 者长期持有。 今日周四(12月25日)欧盘时段，白银期货目前交投于17120一线上方，今日开盘于17630元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报17330元/千克，上涨2.24%，最高触及17650元/千克，最低下探16752元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 另外，明年年初彭博商品指数和标普高盛商品指数调参可能会带来被动管理 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices are expected to potentially exceed $100 per ounce by 2026, marking one of the largest price surges in history due to increased investment demand and tight short-term inventory [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In late December, silver futures and spot prices accelerated upward, driven by a surge in investment demand and tight short-term inventory [1] - Global silver ETF holdings have significantly increased since October, with institutions and high-net-worth individuals purchasing and hoarding physical silver, which has been a key factor in driving up spot prices [1] - December is a traditional delivery month, with COMEX silver futures deliveries expected to continue until the end of the month, and recent delivery volumes have exceeded seasonal averages [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand - The current tight supply situation is exacerbated by global silver inventories reaching near historical lows, making it difficult to quickly alleviate the supply constraints [1] - There is increased demand not only for near-month contracts but also for longer-dated contracts, indicating that the recent price strength reflects both short-term supply-demand imbalances and medium- to long-term price expectations [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment remains bullish, with silver bulls still in control, although there are signs of fatigue in the upward trend [3] - The next key upward target for silver prices is set at $75.00, while a pressure from bears could see a test of $66.75 as a critical observation point for buying interest [3] - Expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain a key driving factor, with a greater than 70% probability that the Fed will cut rates by at least 50 basis points by 2026 [2]

24日，国内铂金、钯金、白银、金属铜、黄金，继续保持你追我赶态势，纷纷再次刷新历史新高。 特别是白银期货合约资金流入量之大，大大超乎意料，24日净流入资金规模近65亿元，持仓量近82万手，沉淀资金规模692亿元。资金增幅之大，涨幅之猛 烈，堪称历史罕见。 昨天，不少网友发帖感叹，白银连涨好多天了，"天天涨三四个点""越买越怕，越怕越买"...... 据券商中国，截至发稿，从单月涨幅来看，国内白银期货12月初至今，涨幅已经达到38.36%，远超国际白银价格涨幅，纽约白银期货同期涨幅仅为25.4%， 伦敦现货白银同期涨幅仅为26%。 历史罕见 单日净流入近65亿元 全市场唯一一只主要投资于白银期货的基金产品国投白银LOF，近日连续大涨。24日，该基金更是连续涨停3天，报收3.116元。 数据显示，国投白银LOF（161226）产品12月初至今涨幅已经达到103.93%，年内涨幅已经达到254.9%。远远超过白银期货单月涨幅38.36%和年内涨幅 135%。 | 国投白银LOF く ロ | Q | | --- | --- | | 161226.SZ | | | 作收 3.116 | 3.110 | | +0.283 ...