1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Lead inventories are increasing, putting pressure on prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,890 yuan/ton, down 0.06%; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 2,020 dollars/ton, up 0.12% [1] - The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 37,318 lots, a decrease of 10,660 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 4,047 lots, a decrease of 1,220 lots [1] - The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 66,741 lots, an increase of 2,207 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 142,798 lots, a decrease of 153 lots [1] - The premium/discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -31.8 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.49 dollars/ton [1] - The PB00 - PB01 spread was -20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import premium was 105 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -755.74 yuan/ton, an increase of 34.29 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous third contract was -689.99 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/ton [1] - The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 61,934 tons, an increase of 1,002 tons; the LME lead inventory was 276,375 tons, an increase of 6,025 tons [1] - The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME lead cancelled warrants were 71,300 tons, a decrease of 600 tons [1] - The price of recycled refined lead was 16,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -502 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 3.2 News - The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, but two voting members support rate cuts, pointing out that economic growth has slowed. Powell did not give guidance on a September rate cut, emphasizing uncertainties in tariffs and inflation and stating that the job market has not weakened [2] - Trump said the US will impose a 25% tariff and "punishment" on India, referring to India as a major buyer of Russian energy. Trump announced a comprehensive trade agreement with South Korea, imposing a 15% tariff, and South Korea will provide the US with $350 billion in investment, which will be owned and controlled by the US. Trump signed an executive order to impose a 50% tariff on Brazil [2] - In 2024, CMOC added 1.5145 million tons of lead, zinc, and copper metal resources and 24 tons of gold [2] - The lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2]

美联储主席鲍威尔：指标显示经济增长放缓。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement indicates a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of this year [1] Economic Growth - Economic growth has decelerated in the first half of the year, suggesting potential challenges for various sectors [1] Implications for Investment - The slowdown in economic growth may impact investment strategies and market sentiment, leading to a reassessment of risk and opportunity across industries [1]

【黄金期货最新行情】 | 7月28日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 774.78 | -0.33% | 256019 | 209675 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，7月28日上海黄金现货价格报价770.19元/克，相较于期货主力价格（774.78元/克）贴水4.59 元/克。 尽管年初有关关税可能引发通胀和经济放缓的担忧甚嚣尘上，美国经济却展现出惊人的韧性。消费者物 价涨幅温和，劳动力市场虽有放缓迹象，但尚未出现大幅恶化。经济学家普遍认为，只要劳动力市场保 持稳定，消费支出就不会显著下滑，从而支撑经济增长。然而，私营部门就业增长已降至八个月低点， 招聘活动放缓，大学毕业生就业难度加大，这些信号表明经济并非毫无瑕疵。 6月份，美国同比通胀率因关税影响略有上升，而一篮子领先经济指标显示，下半年经济增长可能放 缓。考克斯指出，当前市场对就业市场放缓的乐观情绪令人费解。她警告称，一旦就业市场显著恶化， 消费支出可能受到抑制，进而拖累经济增长。这种背景下， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Goldman Sachs economists predict the U.S. benchmark "reciprocal" tariff rate will increase from 10% to 15% [1] - Tariffs on copper and critical minerals are expected to reach as high as 50% [1] - This increase in tariffs may lead to inflation and hinder economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra indicated that a series of trade agreements will be announced soon, which will involve significant investments in the U.S. and suggest that tariffs are bringing manufacturing back to the country [1] Group 1: Trade Agreements - A range of trade agreements is expected to be announced in the coming days, focusing on substantial investments in the U.S. [1] - The potential return of tariffs to April levels raises concerns about economic growth slowing down [1] Group 2: Tariffs and Manufacturing - Tariffs are seen as a mechanism to encourage the return of manufacturing to the U.S., although they may have counterproductive effects [1] - Analysts express skepticism about the credibility of the "hard deadline" for trade agreements, citing previous empty threats and extended deadlines [1]

Economic Growth Overview - Cameroon’s GDP growth for Q4 2024 is projected at 1.6%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from 2.2% in the same period of 2023 [1] - The slowdown in economic growth is primarily attributed to the decline in the secondary sector, which shrank from 1.1% to -0.7% during the same period [1] Sector Performance - The mining and extraction sector experienced a significant contraction of 19.2%, contributing to the overall decline in the secondary sector [1] - The extraction industry has been in recession since Q2 2023, facing challenges from aging oil fields and international price fluctuations [1] Revenue Adjustments - The government has revised its expected revenue for 2025 from an initial budget of 734.8 billion CFA francs (approximately $1.225 billion) down to 641.5 billion CFA francs (approximately $1.069 billion), reflecting a reduction of 93.3 billion CFA francs (12.7% decrease) [1] Resilience in Other Sectors - The tertiary sector showed strong performance with a growth rate of 4.4%, while the primary sector grew by 3% [2] - Growth in the tertiary sector is driven by robust development in financial and administrative services, while the primary sector benefits from strong outputs in food crops, export agricultural products, fisheries, and livestock [2] Structural Limitations - The weakness in the secondary sector highlights the structural limitations of Cameroon’s economy, which remains heavily reliant on the export of primary raw materials and lacks local deep processing capabilities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The IEA monthly report suggests that linking the slowdown in economic growth to the negative impacts of tariffs may be premature [1] Group 1 - The report indicates that while there are concerns about economic growth, attributing these concerns solely to tariffs may not be justified at this stage [1] - It emphasizes the need for a more comprehensive analysis of various factors affecting economic performance beyond just tariffs [1] - The IEA highlights that the global economic landscape is influenced by multiple variables, and a singular focus on tariffs could lead to misleading conclusions [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that a majority of participants believe tariffs pose a persistent risk to inflation [1] - Most participants anticipate a slowdown in future economic growth [1]

欧洲央行会议纪要：鉴于不确定性增加，第二季度欧元区经济增长放缓。 ...