通胀走势基本符合前期预测。2026年商品、食品及医疗保健价格将面临进一步上行压力，而房价则承受下行压 力。我们维持整体通胀预测不变：2025年2.8%，2026年2.5%（此前为2.6%），2027年2.4%。核心通胀率预测值 为：2025年3.0%（维持不变）、2026年2.8%（维持不变）、2027年2.6%。 尽管劳动力市场出现降温迹象，美国经济增长仍保持相对稳健。我们预计在财政和货币政策支持下，环比增长将 在2026年恢复，但从结构上看，人口结构正日益限制经济生产能力的进一步扩张。 鉴于贸易战对经济增长的影响小于预期，我们将2025年GDP增长预测从1.6%上调至1.8%，2026年预测从1.4%上调 至1.9%。预计2027年经济增长将趋于平稳，维持在1.7%的较低趋势增速。 预计美联储将于12月、3月及6月各降息25个基点（此前预测为1月、4月和7月），随后在2026年剩余时间及2027年 维持3.00-3.25%的终点利率水平。前景风险呈均衡态势。若私人消费突然放缓，可能促使美联储重启更激进的降 息周期；但持续的财政宽松政策也可能迫使美联储将利率维持在高于我们预期的结构性高位。 ...

随着经济增速略有放缓，预计荷兰失业率将从今年的3.9%上升至2026年的4.1%，2026年通胀率预计降 至2.5%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经海牙12月4日电（记者邵海军）荷兰合作银行（Rabobank）2日预测，荷兰经济2026年将增长 1.3%，低于今年1.7%的预计增长率。 该行发布的月度经济展望说，政府支出方面，受人口老龄化带来的医疗保健需求增长以及国防支出增加 双重拉动，2026年政府投资增速将达3.0%，成为经济增长的重要动力。消费方面，荷兰家庭消费占经 济总量的40%以上，受预期工资上涨和消费者信心支撑，明年消费预计增长1.8%。投资方面，在利率稳 定和全球贸易不确定性略有缓解情况下，投资有望增长1.5%。进出口方面，受欧元走强和美国加征关 税影响，进口增速超过出口增速，贸易顺差将略有收窄，进口预计增长3.0%，出口增速略低，预计为 2.1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The World Bank has raised Kenya's 2025 economic growth forecast from 4.5% to 4.9%, primarily due to a strong rebound in the construction sector [1] Economic Growth - The construction industry showed a significant recovery in the first half of the year, partially offsetting the slowdown in manufacturing growth [1] Risks and Challenges - Despite the improved economic outlook, Kenya faces major risks, including the expiration of trade agreements with the United States, an uncertain international trade environment, and potential limitations on public spending due to fiscal consolidation [1] - High levels of public debt and debt repayment pressures are also critical factors hindering long-term sustainable growth [1] Recommendations - The World Bank suggests that Kenya should pursue structural reforms, such as reducing reliance on state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and easing restrictions on foreign investment [1]

Group 1 - The United States and Switzerland have reached a new tariff agreement, reducing tariffs from 39% to 15%, with Switzerland committing to invest approximately $200 billion in the U.S. by the end of 2028 [1][2] - The total investment includes commitments from Swiss pharmaceutical companies Roche ($50 billion) and Novartis ($23 billion), as well as investments from engineering group ABB and railway equipment manufacturer Stadler [1] - The agreement must be approved by the Swiss parliament and will subsequently undergo a national referendum, with the Swiss government emphasizing the need to lower costs for domestic companies [1][2] Group 2 - The tariff negotiations are critically important for Switzerland, as the U.S. is a major export market for Swiss goods such as watches, chocolate, pharmaceuticals, and machine tools [2] - The recent tariff crisis has led to a significant decline in Swiss technology exports to the U.S., with a reported drop of 14.2% in the third quarter compared to the previous year [1] - The economic impact of the tariffs has prompted discussions about Switzerland's neutral status and increased calls for strengthening relations with the European Union [2]

Core Insights - The prolonged 42-day federal government shutdown has led to the potential permanent loss of certain economic data originally scheduled for collection in October, complicating the assessment of the U.S. economic health [1][2] - The shutdown has severely impacted federal statistical agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Census Bureau, with significant delays in key economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and unemployment data [1][2] Economic Impact - Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, indicated that some statistical surveys were not completed, resulting in an unclear economic picture until statistical agencies resume operations [1] - The anticipated release of the September employment report, originally scheduled for October 3, is expected to be the easiest to rectify, as data collection was completed before the shutdown [1] - Hassett predicts that the U.S. economic growth will return to a rate of 3%-4% by the first quarter of the following year, despite acknowledging the impact of the shutdown on the economy [2] Legislative Developments - The Senate passed a bill to restart the government on November 11, with the House expected to approve it soon, followed by the signature of former President Trump [2]

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that Azerbaijan's nominal GDP will reach $76.4 billion in 2025, representing a growth of 3% [1] - The non-oil and gas sector is expected to grow by 4.5% [1] - By 2026, Azerbaijan's GDP is projected to reach $80 billion, and by 2030, it is expected to reach $100.8 billion [1]

Core Insights - The World Bank forecasts an average economic growth rate of approximately 1.7% for Azerbaijan from 2025 to 2027, with inflation expected to remain within the central bank's target range [1] Economic Outlook - Azerbaijan's economy is projected to experience long-term low growth and significant risks associated with a sharp decline in energy prices [1] - Short-term risks appear minimal, but the long-term sustainability of the economy will depend on the effectiveness of economic diversification reforms [1]

Group 1 - The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts a 6.1% economic growth for Central Asia in 2025, slightly decreasing to 5.2% in 2026 [1] - Key growth drivers identified include industrial growth, increased investment, rising real wages, and expanded domestic demand [1] - Mongolia's economy is projected to grow by 5.8% in 2025 and 5.5% in 2026, despite a weak performance in the mining sector [1] Group 2 - Mongolia is expected to achieve a 5.6% economic growth in the first half of 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of Ireland has raised its economic growth forecast for Ireland, expecting a GDP growth of 10.7% for this year, driven by the resolution of uncertainties in US tariff policies and strong domestic demand [1] Economic Growth Forecast - The revised GDP growth forecast for 2023 is 10.7%, an increase from the previous estimate of 8.1% [1] - For 2026, the GDP growth is projected at 3.1%, slightly above the earlier forecast of 3.2% [1] Domestic Demand and Exports - The revised domestic demand (MDD) is expected to grow by 3.4% in 2025 and 2.6% in the following year [1] - Exports are anticipated to increase by 7.5% this year and by 4.5% next year [1] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending is projected to grow by 2.8% this year and by 2.4% in the following year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian National Confederation of Industry (CNI) has slightly revised down its industrial growth forecast due to a sharp slowdown in the manufacturing sector, while maintaining its GDP growth prediction for 2025 at 2.3% [1] Group 1: Industrial Growth Forecast - CNI has lowered the industrial growth rate from 1.7% to 1.6% [1] - The downward revision is primarily attributed to a significant slowdown in the manufacturing sector, which is facing three adverse factors: declining demand for industrial goods, a surge in imports, and increased tariffs from the United States [1] - The growth forecast for manufacturing has plummeted from an initial 1.9% to the current 0.7% [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Despite the negative impact on manufacturing, the performance of the extraction industry has exceeded expectations, helping to mitigate the overall downward adjustment in industrial growth forecasts [1] - CNI anticipates that agricultural income will drive an 8.3% growth in the agricultural sector this year [1] - The service sector is expected to grow by 2%, benefiting from an improving job market and increased federal government spending [1]