Group 1 - South Korea's exports have declined by 2.4% in the first 20 days of May compared to the same period last year, with a significant drop of 14.6% in exports to the United States [1] - The overall imports decreased by 2.5%, resulting in a trade deficit of $300 million [1] - The automotive sector, including cars and auto parts, saw exports drop by 6.3% and 10.7% respectively, while steel product exports fell by 12.1% [1] Group 2 - The semiconductor sector remains a strong performer, contributing to a 17.3% overall export growth for South Korea [1] - Political uncertainty ahead of the presidential elections is hindering efforts to reach a trade agreement with the U.S. [1] - Analysts suggest that unless a compromise on automotive tariffs is reached, pushing for an early agreement may be futile [2] Group 3 - A government-funded think tank has revised South Korea's economic growth forecast for 2025 down to 0.8% due to the impact of U.S. tariffs [3] - There is a low likelihood of reaching any trade agreement before the June elections, despite South Korea being one of the first countries to initiate trade talks with the U.S. [3]

科技股虽然曾一度大幅受压，但在美国市场中仍将继续扮演重要角色。DWS预期，科技股的表现将对 标普500指数的走势举足轻重。在企业债券方面，DWS亦偏好欧洲市场，特别是投资级别债券，因其风 险低于高收益债券，当市场风险上升时，收益差距可能再次扩大，对后者的价格造成更大压力。 关税措施与随之而来的不确定性及物价上涨，预料将于今明两年对大多数国家的经济增长构成压力。作 为关税战发动国，美国或需承受最大冲击。DWS已将美国2025年的经济增长预测由2.0%下调至1.2%。 至于欧元区，DWS亦把增长预测下调0.2个百分点至0.8%。 鉴于估值差距持续处于极高水平，同时投资者重新配置资产后，预料资金将从美国流向欧洲，目前欧洲 股市的前景较美国股市佳。DWS在重新调整预测后，将2026年3月泛欧指数Stoxx600的目标点数，由 570点轻微下调至550点。 DWS全球首席投资总监Vincenzo Vedda发布对市场与宏观经济及各资产类别的主要观点。市场预期特朗 普关税对经济的打击会较原先预计的温和，令股市于4月中下旬显著反弹。然而，美国政府目前转变频 繁的政治路线，势必会在经济增长及资本市场上留下明显影响。DWS将因 ...

智通财经5月14日电，欧佩克将2025年欧元区经济增长预测从0.8%上调至1%，将2025年美国经济增长预 测从2.1%下调至1.7%，欧佩克将2025年全球经济增长预测从3%下调至2.9%。 ...

美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒在近期的一次讲话中表示，由于贸易政策变化迅速，加之美国家庭和企业在今年早些时候的囤货行为，美联储在判断经济潜 力时面临了前所未有的困难。她指出，这种不确定性使得美联储在预测经济增长和通胀趋势时变得更加模糊。 库格勒强调，美国进口关税上调的影响通常表现为物价上升和经济增速放缓，但由于美国仍在与其他国家进行贸易谈判，且多项关税政策仍在悬而未决的状 态，关税上升的具体影响和持续时间难以预测。她认为，尽管美联储面临不确定的全球贸易局势，但较低的关税可能会推动经济增长，导致市场交易员预测 美联储可能减少降息的次数。 库格勒在爱尔兰美国银行的活动中提到："目前很难准确判断美国经济的潜在增长速度。贸易政策的不断变化使得经济预测充 满了变数。"她进一步指出，即便现有关税保持不变，依然可能对美国经济产生重大影响。关税的不确定性已经通过消费者提前采购和市场预期，深刻影响 了经济的表现。 库格勒的发言强调了当前经济环境中的复杂性和挑战。在贸易政策变动、全球经济不确定性和消费者行为的变化共同作用下，美联储面临着前所未有的决策 难题。尽管如此，她对现有货币政策保持谨慎乐观的态度，认为美联储的政策立场可以应对 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has pushed back its expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut to December, previously anticipated for July [1] - The economic growth forecast for Q4 2025 has been raised by 0.5 percentage points to 1%, while the probability of a recession within the next 12 months has been lowered to 35% [1] - The peak path for core PCE inflation has been adjusted down to 3.6%, from a previous estimate of 3.8% [1]

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the economic growth rate for the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) will be 6.3% in 2025, while the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) is expected to slow down to 2.4% [1][2] - CEMAC's slowdown is primarily attributed to the economic recession in Equatorial Guinea, which is forecasted to shrink by 4.2% in 2025 after a growth of 1.9% in 2024 [2] - Cameroon, considered a key economic pillar in the region, is expected to maintain a stable growth rate of 3.6%, although this is 0.5 percentage points lower than government expectations [2] Group 2 - UEMOA's economic growth is driven by Senegal, which is projected to see its growth rate rise from 6.7% in 2024 to 8.4% in 2025, largely due to the emergence of the oil industry [3] - Niger's growth is expected to significantly slow down from 10.3% in 2024 to 6.6% in 2025, despite initial optimistic forecasts based on oil production and trade recovery with Benin [3] - Other UEMOA member countries are expected to grow as follows: Benin (6.5%), Côte d'Ivoire (6.3%), Togo (5.5%), and Guinea-Bissau (5.1%), while Mali and Burkina Faso will have lower growth rates of 4.9% and 4.3%, respectively [3]

英国央行行长贝利：英国央行的经济增长预测并非"悲观绝望"。 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Tariffs and Economic Impact in China Industry Overview - The discussion focuses on the impact of tariffs on the Chinese economy and the response strategies from Beijing, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Current Tariff Situation - The current US-China tariffs are at a high level, with expectations that effective tax rates will gradually decrease as negotiations progress [2][3]. - The anticipated effective tariff rate for the US is projected to be 45% by 2025, down from 11% plus exemptions currently in place [2]. Economic Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs significantly affect exports, with varying impacts based on different tariff levels. An additional 34% tariff could lead to a 34% annual decline in exports to the US, while maintaining the current 96% tariff could result in a 70% decline [3][4]. - The overall impact of tariffs is expected to lower the GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.5 percentage points [2][3]. Stimulus Policy Measures - In Q2 2025, the government plans to accelerate the issuance and utilization of government bonds and provide unemployment insurance tax refunds to exporters [5]. - A supplementary fiscal plan of 1-1.5 trillion yuan is expected to be introduced in the second half of 2025, focusing on infrastructure and technology investments [5][6]. Economic Growth Forecast - GDP growth is projected to be below 4.5% in Q2 2025, a decline of 1 percentage point from Q1 2025 [6]. - By Q4 2025, actual GDP growth is expected to drop to 3.7%, with nominal GDP growth potentially falling below 3% [5][6]. Additional Important Insights - The government is cautious in its economic stimulus approach, with a gradual shift from investment-driven policies to consumption-driven strategies, although investment remains the primary focus [6][8]. - The uncertainty surrounding the multiplier effect of consumption stimulus makes it challenging for the government to pivot quickly from investment to consumption [8]. - Potential new growth areas for the Chinese economy include green energy sectors such as electric vehicles and renewable energy, as well as the integration of artificial intelligence with traditional industries [9]. Conclusion - The ongoing high tariffs and the cautious approach of the Chinese government in implementing stimulus measures indicate a challenging economic environment ahead, with significant implications for GDP growth and export performance [1][2][6].

日本央行行长植田和男：日本央行的经济增长和价格预测可能会根据贸易政策的变化而发生重大调整。 ...

墨西哥财政部长：考虑到与美国贸易关系的不确定性，很难准确预测经济增长。 ...