Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit significantly narrowed in April, dropping by 55.5% to $61.6 billion, marking the lowest level in 2023 and reversing the previous quarter's expansion [1] - Imports fell sharply by 16.3%, achieving a record decline, while exports unexpectedly increased by 3% [1] - The reduction in trade deficit is expected to positively impact U.S. GDP in the second quarter, despite potential inventory issues from prior import surges [1][4] Trade Dynamics - The sharp decline in imports was attributed to the implementation of high tariffs, which led to a sudden halt in the "rush to ship" goods before the tariffs took effect [1] - The U.S. trade deficit with China decreased to $19.7 billion, the lowest since the early pandemic, reflecting the impact of tariff policies aimed at achieving fair trade [5] - The trade balance with Canada and Mexico also improved, while the deficit with Switzerland turned into a surplus due to reduced gold exports to the U.S. [5] Economic Indicators - The April trade data suggests a potential positive contribution to GDP, following a 0.2 percentage point decline in the previous quarter [1][4] - However, rising unemployment claims, which reached 247,000, indicate a cooling labor market that could affect economic growth [4] - Adjusted for inflation, the trade deficit narrowed to $85.6 billion, the lowest since the end of 2023 [5]

美国财长贝森特：似乎AI开支正驱动美国GDP增长至多1%。 ...

美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率修正值为下降0.2%，预期下降0.3%，前值为下降0.3%。 ...

美国第一季度年化实际GDP 235280亿美元，前值235261亿美元。 ...

美国一季度实际GDP年化季环比修正值 -0.2%，预期 -0.3%，初值 -0.3%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expects economic data to be revised, indicating potential changes in economic outlook [1] Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP showed strong performance in the first quarter, with expectations for data revisions [1] Inflation Policy - The current policies are aimed at reducing inflation [1] Interest Rates - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds is below the federal funds rate, suggesting that the Federal Reserve should consider lowering interest rates [1]

消费支出（占GDP的三分之二）增长1.8%，是自2023年年中以来的最低水平。企业设备支出是报告中 的一个亮点，按年率计算增长22.5%。 展望未来，许多经济学家预计，更高的关税将导致供应冲击，给企业带来挑战，并导致需求下降，因为 价格上涨将现金短缺的美国人推向了崩溃的边缘。 预测者目前认为，美国在明年陷入衰退的几率几乎为50%。消费者也越来越担心关税会对劳动力市场造 成影响，推高生活成本。美国金融交易和预测市场平台Kalshi目前预期今年美国经济衰退的概率为 74%。 最新的GDP数据显示，进口折合成年率激增约41%，是近五年来的最大增幅。因为这些商品和服务不是 在美国生产的，所以在GDP中需要减去。经济学家预计，美国贸易逆差急剧扩大的趋势将在第二季度逆 转。 通常情况下，进口商品会进入仓库或直接进入店面。然而，该报告显示，该季度企业库存对GDP的贡献 为2.25个百分点，为2021年底以来的最高水平。近期大量进口可能会在未来几个月体现为更高的库存， 再加上贸易逆差的缩小，将提振美国第二季度GDP。 由于贸易和库存的波动有时会扭曲整体GDP，经济学家更倾向于关注面向国内私人购买者的最终销售， 以便更好地了解 ...

美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率初值 -0.3%，预期0.3%，前值2.40%。 ...