【最新白银行情解析】 昨日现货白银刺破前高，仍徘徊于日线布林上轨附近，日线RSI接近超买区，若回调行情触发，空方将 首先瞄准前期阻力趋势线转化的支撑区域53.80-54.00美元，进而测试50日均线50.25美元。 隔夜，美指持续阴跌，最新公布的ADP就业数据显示，11月私营企业减少3.2万个工作岗位，为2023年3 月以来最大降幅，远逊于市场预期的增加1万个岗位。这一数据凸显在美联储政策转向关键时刻，就业 市场面临的压力正在加大。ADP公布后，美指创下日内新低，随后于低位震荡。现货白银价格创下历史 新高的58.98美元后回落，最终收涨0.02%，报58.45美元/盎司。 周四(12月4日)亚市盘中，现货白银急速下跌，白银价格日内跌幅扩大至2.00%，温和的RSI顶背离信号 暗示银价或向53.80–54.00美元支撑区域及50日移动均线50.25美元回调。 【要闻速递】 ...

周三亚洲时段，黄金在连续上涨后迎来明显调整，盘中一度回落至每盎司 4210 美元附近。获利盘离场 叠加股市情绪改善，使金价短线承压。不过，市场对美联储 12 月降息的预期持续增强，使下方支撑结 构未被打破。与此同时，利率期货大幅建仓带来额外噪音，显示资金正提前为"后鲍威尔时代"的政策路 径进行布局，进一步牵动宏观风险情绪。 在关键美国数据公布前，多头选择暂时获利，金价自高点出现较快回吐，亚洲盘跌幅一度接近 0.65%。 短线资金的主动减仓使得黄金的回调显得更为集中。市场普遍聚焦当天即将公布的 ADP 就业数据和 ISM 服务业指数，若指标继续走弱，将强化市场对宽松路径的判断，并为金价提供新的动力。多位行 业人士认为，此轮回落仍属常规调整，降息定价并未出现明显松动。 根据 CME FedWatch 的最新数据，市场预计美联储在 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率已升至 89%，较前一 周明显上升。在此背景下，持有黄金的机会成本持续下降，使得金价在短线回调后依旧具备明显支撑。 美元在前期反弹后动能趋弱，也减轻了黄金下行压力。地缘局势方面，美国特使即将与普京会面，若对 话未取得实质性突破，避险情绪依然可能重新升温，为 ...

The monthly ADP National Employment Report for November is set to be released at 8:15 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government has ended its shutdown after a bipartisan agreement, impacting 670,000 federal employees who were furloughed, while 1.52 million continued to work without pay [52][53]. - The U.S. ADP employment data for October exceeded expectations, with an increase of 42,000 jobs compared to the forecast of 30,000, alleviating concerns about economic weakness [65][67]. - The ISM manufacturing PMI for October fell to 48.7, indicating contraction, while the services PMI rose to 52.4, suggesting stability in the employment market [61][65]. Group 2 - Global stock indices mostly declined, with the S&P 500 down 1.6% and the Nasdaq down 3.0%, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.3% [2][3]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remained stable at 4.11%, while yields in other developed markets increased, such as France's 10-year yield rising to 3.46% [17][21]. - The dollar index decreased by 0.2% to 99.55, with most currencies appreciating against the dollar, including the euro and yen [25][32]. Group 3 - Commodity prices mostly fell, with WTI crude oil down 2.0% to $59.8 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.2% to $63.6 per barrel [36][41]. - Precious metals showed mixed performance, with COMEX gold remaining stable at $3,995.2 per ounce, while COMEX silver fell by 1.4% to $48.0 per ounce [41][45]. - The prices of industrial metals also declined, with LME copper down 1.6% to $10,744 per ton [41].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced a mild rebound after a significant drop, with prices currently fluctuating around $3938 per ounce, following a nearly 2% decline the previous day, attributed to a strong dollar and changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies [1]. Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for gold remains weak, with short-term price movements indicating further downside potential. Key moving averages suggest a bearish trend, with the 20-period simple moving average at $4002 and the 100-period moving average at $4105, indicating downward pressure [3]. - On the daily chart, gold is still in a correction phase, trading below the 20-day moving average at $4088. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages are positioned at $3596 and $3359, respectively, indicating a long-term upward trend but weakened short-term momentum [4]. Market Influences - U.S. economic data is crucial for determining gold's direction, with the ADP employment report being a key focus. The market anticipates an addition of 25,000 jobs in October, which could impact the dollar's performance and subsequently gold prices [4]. - Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have decreased from over 90% to approximately 71%, which directly influences gold's attractiveness as it does not yield interest in a high-rate environment [4]. Price Levels and Support - Gold shows signs of stabilization after short-term selling but lacks a clear reversal signal. A price recovery above $4088 could restore upward momentum, while failure to rebound may lead to testing long-term support levels at $3596 or $3359 [5].

Core Insights - The U.S. ADP employment numbers decreased by 32,000 in September, which was below the expected increase of 51,000 and a decline from the previous value of 54,000 [1] Summary by Category - **Employment Data** - September's ADP employment change showed a reduction of 32,000 jobs [1] - The forecast for job growth was 51,000, indicating a significant miss in expectations [1] - The prior month's employment figure was revised down from 54,000 [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the ADP employment report for August shows an increase of 54,000 jobs, which is below the expected increase of 65,000 jobs and significantly lower than the previous month's increase of 104,000 jobs [1] Group 2 - The August ADP employment figure indicates a slowdown in job growth compared to prior months, suggesting potential challenges in the labor market [1] - The discrepancy between actual job growth and expectations may impact economic forecasts and investor sentiment [1] - The data could influence monetary policy decisions as it reflects the current state of employment in the economy [1]

Core Insights - In August, ADP reported an increase of 54,000 jobs in the U.S., which was below the expected increase of 68,000 jobs and significantly lower than the previous month's increase of 104,000 jobs [1] Employment Data Summary - The actual job increase for August was 54,000 [1] - The forecasted job increase was 68,000 [1] - The previous month's job increase was 104,000 [1]

Core Insights - Federal Reserve official Kashkari indicates that both the non-farm payroll report and ADP employment data reflect a softening labor market in the United States [1] Group 1 - The labor market in the U.S. is showing signs of weakness as indicated by recent employment reports [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing strong bearish pressure, with a significant drop from the recent high of 3439, indicating a potential further decline towards the support levels of 3245 and 3150-3120 [2][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The recent decline in gold prices marks the first occurrence of four consecutive bearish daily candles since the rise began in November 2022, suggesting a strong return of bearish sentiment [2]. - The 60-day moving average and key support levels have been breached, indicating a failure of bullish momentum and a shift towards bearish trends [2]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest a focus on buying on dips, as the market is currently oversold, with potential for a rebound before further declines [4][11]. Group 2: Market Events and Data - Upcoming economic data releases, including ADP employment figures and GDP, are expected to influence market sentiment, alongside the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [6]. - The gold market is anticipated to remain volatile as traders react to these economic indicators and geopolitical developments [6][11]. Group 3: Silver Market Insights - The silver market has shown a similar pattern, with recent price action indicating resistance at the 39.7 level, aligning with previous expectations [8][10]. - The overall outlook for silver remains bearish, with key resistance levels identified at 38.5 and 39.7, while support is seen at lower levels [10]. Group 4: Broader Market Context - The U.S. dollar index is on an upward trend, which may exert additional pressure on gold and silver prices, with key resistance levels at 99.5-100 [10]. - The performance of U.S. stock futures has been mixed, indicating uncertainty in the broader market, which could impact commodity trading strategies [15].