1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Fed's internal divergence increases policy uncertainty, weakening the US dollar's credit. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and political unrest in Europe boost safe - haven buying. Central bank gold purchases offer long - term support, and the decline of the US dollar index is beneficial for gold prices. Domestic gold prices are relatively stronger than international ones [3]. - **Copper**: After the Fed's interest - rate decision, the short - term impact of macro factors on copper prices will decrease. Copper shows certain resilience and may continue to fluctuate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton. Supply is tight in the short term, and demand remains stable [17]. - **Aluminum**: The core factors for aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and peak - season fundamentals. After the September interest - rate cut, the macro - drive pauses, and the focus of Shanghai aluminum trading may shift to fundamentals. After a short - term price correction, Shanghai aluminum may fluctuate strongly [37]. - **Zinc**: The supply is in an oversupply state. The market's expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is average. The inventory shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate [65]. - **Nickel**: For nickel ore, there are concerns about supply stability. The prices of MHP and nickel salts may continue to be strong. Nickel - iron prices are firm, and stainless - steel prices are in a stalemate [80]. - **Tin**: After the Fed's interest - rate decision, the impact of macro factors on tin prices decreases. In the short - term supply - tight situation, tin prices may mainly fluctuate [95]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices may fluctuate and consolidate [107]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: Near the National Day holiday, both long and short sides in the technical aspect are closing positions. The fundamentals have no significant changes, and market sentiment is average [116]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Movement**: The report presents the price trends of SHFE gold and silver futures, COMEX gold and silver ratios, and the relationship between gold and the US dollar index, US Treasury real interest rates, etc. [4][9][12] - **Inventory**: It shows the inventory data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver [16]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME copper are provided. The main contract of Shanghai copper is 79,960 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.05% [18]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various copper spot prices are given. For example, the price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 80,045 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.04% [23]. - **Import and Processing**: The copper import profit and loss is - 108.53 yuan per ton, with a daily change of - 29.82 yuan and a daily change rate of 37.89%. The copper concentrate TC is - 40.65 US dollars per ton [28]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 27,419 tons, a daily decrease of 308 tons and a daily decrease rate of 1.11%. LME copper inventory is 144,975 tons, a daily decrease of 400 tons and a daily decrease rate of 0.28% [33][35]. Aluminum - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum futures (main contract, continuous contracts), LME aluminum, and alumina futures are provided. For example, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum is 20,705 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.1% [40]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various aluminum spot prices are given. For example, the price of East China aluminum is 20,680 yuan per ton, with no daily change [52]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts total 67,736 tons, a daily decrease of 1,224 tons and a daily decrease rate of 1.77%. LME aluminum inventory is 517,150 tons, a daily increase of 3,300 tons and a daily increase rate of 0.64% [61]. Zinc - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME zinc are provided. The main contract of Shanghai zinc is 21,860 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.07% [66]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of zinc spot prices are given. For example, the average price of SMM 0 zinc is 21,820 yuan per ton, a daily decrease of 60 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.27% [71]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts total 57,357 tons, a daily increase of 744 tons and a daily increase rate of 1.31%. LME zinc inventory is 44,400 tons, a daily decrease of 1,375 tons and a daily decrease rate of 3% [76]. Nickel - **Futures Data**: The latest values,环比 differences, and环比 of Shanghai nickel futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME nickel are provided. The main contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,450 yuan per ton, with a环比 increase of 720 yuan and a环比 increase rate of 1% [81]. - **Downstream Situation**: Nickel - iron prices are firm, and stainless - steel prices are in a stalemate. The market is in a wait - and - see state before the holiday [80]. Tin - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME tin are provided. The main contract of Shanghai tin is 271,650 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 1,770 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.66% [96]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of tin spot prices are given. For example, the price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 271,400 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 700 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.26% [101]. - **Inventory**: The total tin warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 6,342 tons, a daily decrease of 76 tons and a daily decrease rate of 1.18%. LME tin inventory is 2,575 tons, a daily decrease of 5 tons and a daily decrease rate of 0.19% [103]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures (main contract, continuous contracts) are provided. The main contract of lithium carbonate futures closes at 72,880 yuan per ton, with a daily decrease of 780 yuan and a weekly increase of 200 yuan [108]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, daily change rates, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of lithium spot prices are given. For example, the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,850 yuan per ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 700 yuan [110]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipts of Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 39,749, with a daily increase of 300 and a daily increase rate of 0.76% [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot prices are provided. For example, the price of East China 553 industrial silicon is 9,500 yuan per ton, with no daily change [117]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures (main contract, continuous contracts) are given. The main contract of industrial silicon is 9,020 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 95 yuan and a daily increase rate of 1.06% [118].

Group 1 - The overall market environment remains loose following the recent Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with a trend towards rate cuts anticipated [2] - Gold prices have shown strength after a rebound, with expectations for further increases if the 3700 level is broken [2] - The oil market continues to experience strong supply, with no significant impact from sanctions on Russian oil exports, leading to a persistent oversupply situation [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points, indicating potential further cuts to address signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market [4] - Lower borrowing costs are expected to boost oil demand, but the current market fundamentals suggest that this will not translate into increased demand for oil [4] - Technical analysis indicates a focus on resistance levels around 63.2/5 for oil, with expectations for a downward trend [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan expressed his independent stance on interest rate decisions, opposing a 25 basis point cut and advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points, emphasizing no external pressure from President Trump [1] Group 1 - Milan had a brief conversation with President Trump before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which was solely to offer congratulations and did not involve discussions about voting positions [1] - Milan's decision to vote against the 25 basis point cut was made independently, highlighting his commitment to the Federal Reserve's economic forecasts and decision-making process [1] - The conversation with Trump did not touch upon Milan's position in the Federal Reserve's economic projections or the "dot plot" [1]

Group 1 - The US Treasury yields have collectively risen, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3.2 basis points to 4.108%, marking the first consecutive rise since early September and achieving the largest two-day gain in a month [1] - The 30-year yield also rose by 5 basis points to 4.724% [1] - The US dollar index continued its rebound, increasing by 0.4% to 97.347, after initially dropping to a new low of 96.22 since February 2022 following the Federal Reserve's decision [1] Group 2 - The rebound in the US dollar index and Treasury yields has suppressed gold prices, leading to a decline in gold prices, with Shanghai gold closing down 0.41% at 830.56 yuan per gram [2] - According to Guangfa Futures, the market interpreted the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision as neutral, and with the dollar index recovering, there are signs of overbought conditions in precious metals after rapid price increases since September [4] - The outlook suggests that with increasing risks in the US labor market, the dual characteristics of "expectation reinforcement - independence undermined" in the Federal Reserve's policy path will continue to suppress the dollar index and Treasury yields, while geopolitical tensions in Europe and the US will increase institutional demand for gold as a safe haven [4]

Group 1 - The current total holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, stand at 975.66 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - On September 18, spot gold prices fell for the second consecutive day, reaching a low of $3628.43 per ounce and closing at $3644.27, down $15.52 or 0.42% [5] - Market analysts suggest that gold prices are reacting to the recent Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with prices hovering around the $3650 mark, significantly lower than the record high of $3707 reached after the Fed's policy statement [5] Group 2 - Recent economic data showed a significant drop in initial jobless claims in the U.S. to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years, which has led to renewed downward pressure on gold prices [6] - Analysts from ANZ Bank believe that gold may perform well at the beginning of the easing cycle, driven by demand for safe-haven assets amid complex geopolitical conditions [6] - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices break below $3650, the next targets could be the September 11 low of $3613 and the psychological level of $3600 [6][7]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, adjusting the rate from the range of 4.5%-4.75% to 4.25%-4.5% [1] Group 1 - The market had already anticipated this 25 basis point rate cut prior to the announcement [1]

Core Points - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The decision reflects concerns about the risks in the U.S. labor market and the challenges posed by rising inflation [3] - Recent indicators show a slowdown in economic activity growth during the first half of the year, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [3] Economic Projections - The median projections from the dot plot indicate that FOMC officials expect two additional rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2025 [4][7] - Economic growth expectations have been slightly raised, with GDP growth projected at 1.6% for 2025 and 1.8% for 2026, compared to previous estimates [9] - Inflation expectations have been adjusted upward, with the PCE inflation forecast for 2026 raised to 2.6% [9][10]

Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which is expected to be highly divided among members, with a general market expectation of a 25 basis point cut [3] - There are four factions within the Federal Reserve regarding the interest rate decision: a significant rate cut faction, a moderate cut faction, a no change faction, and a rate hike faction [3] - A "mysterious trader" is betting on a potential 50 basis point cut, indicating a more dovish outlook than the current market expectations [4] Group 2 - The CME's federal funds futures market has seen unprecedented trading activity, suggesting that traders are preparing for a possible dovish surprise from the Federal Reserve [4] - If the Federal Reserve implements two 50 basis point cuts or three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in the last three meetings of the year, it could lead to significant profits for those holding certain contracts [4] - The current pricing in the swap market indicates an expected cumulative rate cut of about 70 basis points before the December meeting [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The price of spot gold has recently experienced significant fluctuations, reaching a historical peak of $3702.93 per ounce before settling at $3689.60, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and geopolitical risks [1][2] - The weakening of the US dollar, which fell by 0.74% to a low of 96.54, has provided additional support for gold prices, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies [2][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is approaching the $3700 mark, with support levels identified at $3660-3653 and potential upward targets around $3710 and $3750 [4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures have seen a slight decline to $68.46 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures also dropped to $64.51 per barrel, amid concerns over potential supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions [5][6] - The market is anticipating a Federal Reserve interest rate cut of 25 basis points, which is expected to stimulate economic activity and fuel demand [5] - Technical analysis suggests that oil prices are currently in a weak consolidation phase, with short-term upward trends expected, particularly if prices break above resistance levels of $66.0-67.0 [6]

Core Insights - Gold prices are currently fluctuating near historical highs, with a recent peak of $3703 per ounce, driven primarily by market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy [1][2]. Group 1: Market Drivers - The surge in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including a weakening US dollar and declining US Treasury yields, which enhance gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [2]. - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have reached a peak, with an 88% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 12% chance of a 50 basis point cut, contributing to the rise in gold prices [2]. - Ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2]. Group 2: Trading Recommendations - In the current high volatility environment, caution is advised. Key resistance levels are identified at $3702-$3705, with potential further gains if these levels are breached [3]. - Suggested trading strategy includes buying on dips, particularly in the $3680-$3690 range, with a stop-loss set below $3670 and a target of $3700-$3710 [3]. - For aggressive traders, a short position may be considered if gold rebounds to the $3705-$3715 range and shows signs of resistance, with a stop-loss above $3720 [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of gold prices is heavily dependent on the outcome of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. A 25 basis point cut could push prices above $3725, while a surprise 50 basis point cut may lead to a rapid increase towards the $3750-$3800 range [4]. - There is a risk of profit-taking if the Fed's guidance does not meet market expectations, potentially leading to a pullback to the $3650-$3620 support area [4]. - Long-term bullish sentiment remains intact due to strong global central bank demand for gold and favorable technical indicators [4].