【原油】纽约商品交易所11月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌1美分，收于每桶64.98美元，跌幅为 0.02%；11月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨11美分，收于每桶69.42美元，涨幅为0.16%。 【加密货币】比特币跌超3%，报109421.3美元；以太坊跌超6%，报3903.01美元。 【贵金属】现货黄金涨超0.3%，收报3749.04美元。 【外汇】衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.7%，在汇市尾市收于98.554。截至纽约汇市尾 市，1欧元兑换1.1653美元，低于前一交易日的1.1737美元；1英镑兑换1.3335美元，低于前一交易日的 1.3449美元。1美元兑换149.89日元，高于前一交易日的148.84日元；1美元兑换0.8004瑞士法郎，高于前 一交易日的0.7954瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3943加元，高于前一交易日的1.3904加元；1美元兑换9.4766瑞 典克朗，高于前一交易日的9.4078瑞典克朗。 美国二季度经济强劲增长 消费者支出和企业设备支出仍具韧性。美国第二季度经济以近两年来最快的 速度增长，美国政府还上调了此前对消费者支出的估计。美国周四发布的报告显示，经通胀调 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman warns of the risk of falling behind the economic curve as signs of weakness emerge in the U.S. labor market, urging decisive action to address declining employment vitality to avoid larger future policy adjustments [1][3]. Group 1: Labor Market and Policy Actions - Recent employment data indicates a weakening U.S. labor market, prompting Bowman to advocate for proactive measures from the Federal Open Market Committee [3]. - Multiple indicators, including revisions to non-farm payroll data, signal potential issues, suggesting that the Fed may need to adjust interest rates more rapidly and significantly if current trends persist [3]. - Bowman previously suggested three rate cuts of 25 basis points each, and the Fed recently cut rates by 25 basis points, with most policymakers expecting two more cuts this year [3][5]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions within the Fed - Bowman's stance aligns with another board member advocating for aggressive rate cuts to prevent economic damage, while others, like Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, prefer a cautious approach, emphasizing the need for more time to observe inflation trends [5]. - Bowman cautions against over-reliance on lagging data, arguing that strict adherence to data can lead to delayed policy adjustments that may necessitate more drastic corrections in the future [5]. Group 3: Inflation and Future Outlook - Concerns regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation have eased, allowing for more flexible interest rate adjustments [9]. - The discussions within the Fed regarding policy pace are intensifying as labor market signals shift, with Bowman's comments highlighting the need for a balance between data reliance and forward-looking judgments [9].

新华财经北京9月24日电美联储主席鲍威尔23日表示，美国经济正面临通胀上升与就业下行的＂双向风 险＂，这一局面使货币政策制定面临艰难抉择。 在罗德岛州出席商会活动时，鲍威尔指出，短期内通胀风险偏向上行，就业风险偏向下行，"这是一个 极具挑战性的局面＂。鲍威尔强调，通胀率已上升并保持＂略高＂水平，关税对通胀的总体影响＂仍有 待观察＂。 近期数据显示，美国经济增速放缓，失业率虽仍处低位但已出现轻微上升，住房市场疲软，消费者支出 出现降温迹象。 关于劳动力市场，鲍威尔指出，劳动力供给和需求双双明显放缓，就业下行风险增加。他强调，当前劳 动力市场的疲软＂并非全由移民因素导致＂，需求明显放缓，当前招聘率和解雇率都很低。 美联储于9月17日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至 4.00%-4.25%之间，这是美联储2025年首次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后的再次降息。值得注意的 是，由美国总统特朗普提名、刚刚出任美联储理事的白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰在此次会议 上投下唯一反对票，认为此次降息幅度应达到50个基点。 近期，特朗普政府对美联储施加压力，要求大幅降息，甚至试图罢免美 ...

分组1 - Newly appointed Federal Reserve Governor Steven Myron advocated for a larger rate cut at the recent FOMC meeting, suggesting a half percentage point cut instead of the quarter point cut agreed upon by his colleagues [2][4]. - Myron does not perceive significant inflation from tariffs and believes that maintaining interest rates at restrictive levels could harm the labor market [2][3]. - He has projected a total of six rate cuts for the year, including the recent one, indicating a proactive approach to monetary policy [3][4]. 分组2 - The upcoming week will feature multiple speeches from FOMC members, including Myron, which may provide further insights into their economic outlook and policy direction [8][9]. - Morgan Stanley's chief US economist, Michael Gapen, noted that the Fed is recalibrating its stance towards a more neutral policy, anticipating two additional rate cuts by the end of the year [14][19]. - Concerns about the labor market's weakness and inflation persist, with Gapen highlighting the potential risks associated with tariffs and their impact on corporate labor decisions [22][23]. 分组3 - Core Weave's stock is experiencing a rise following a buy rating from Loop Capital, which emphasizes the company's strong ties to major AI providers like Microsoft [26][27]. - The nuclear energy sector is gaining attention due to a new cooperation agreement between the US and UK, with projections indicating a significant market potential of $10 trillion by 2050 [31]. - Fiverr's stock received an upgrade from BTIG, with analysts noting the company's restructuring efforts and potential cost savings, despite challenges posed by the gig economy and AI advancements [34][36].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.0%-4.25% [1][2] - The Fed's statement highlighted a slowdown in economic activity growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains at historically low levels [1][2] - The Fed aims to achieve full employment and maintain a long-term inflation rate of 2%, while acknowledging high uncertainty in the current economic outlook [1][2] Group 2 - The decision to lower interest rates was influenced by increased downside risks in the labor market, which were a significant consideration for the policy adjustment [1][2] - The Fed will continue to monitor a wide range of economic indicators, including labor market conditions and inflation pressures, to guide future monetary policy adjustments [2] - The recent rate cut was passed with a vote of 8 in favor and 1 against, reflecting a consensus on the need to address potential growth risks despite ongoing inflation concerns [2]

Core Viewpoint - A significant global monetary policy shift is anticipated as multiple central banks, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan, prepare to announce interest rate decisions within a short timeframe, impacting global capital flows and financial markets [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and U.S. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is particularly noteworthy due to recent personnel changes, including the confirmation of Stephen Milan as a board member, which may influence the decision-making process [2]. - Market expectations are leaning towards a potential interest rate cut of 25 basis points, with a possibility of a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points, influenced by the voting inclinations of newly confirmed members [2]. - Analysts predict a more dovish outlook in the Fed's dot plot, with guidance suggesting 2 to 3 rate cuts in 2025 [2]. Group 2: Other Central Banks' Actions - The Bank of England is expected to maintain its interest rate at 4%, following a previous cut of 25 basis points, which was narrowly approved [3]. - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to hold its rates steady, with market participants looking for signals regarding future rate hikes amid ongoing inflation pressures [3]. - Several countries, including Peru and Turkey, have already initiated rate cuts, with Peru reducing its rate by 25 basis points and Turkey by 250 basis points, indicating a trend towards easing monetary policy in response to local economic conditions [4]. Group 3: Emerging Markets and Global Implications - Emerging market central banks are influenced by the Federal Reserve's policies, facing pressures such as currency depreciation and capital outflows, which may dictate their monetary policy adjustments [5]. - The potential for the Fed to cut rates could create more room for other central banks to adjust their policies, although actions will depend on each country's economic fundamentals [5].

Core Viewpoint - A significant global monetary policy shift is anticipated as multiple central banks, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan, prepare to announce interest rate decisions within a short timeframe, impacting global capital flows and financial markets [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and U.S. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is particularly noteworthy due to recent personnel changes, including the confirmation of Stephen Milan as a board member, which may influence the decision-making process [2]. - Market expectations are leaning towards a potential interest rate cut of 25 basis points, with a possibility of a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points, depending on the voting inclinations of newly confirmed members [2][3]. - Analysts predict a more dovish outlook in the Fed's dot plot, with guidance suggesting 2 to 3 rate cuts in 2025 [2]. Group 2: Other Central Banks' Actions - The Bank of Canada is expected to follow the Fed's lead and implement a rate cut due to concerns over economic growth [3]. - The Bank of England is anticipated to maintain its current rate at 4%, following a previous cut of 25 basis points, which was narrowly approved [3]. - The Bank of Japan is likely to hold its rates steady but is under pressure to signal future rate hikes due to ongoing inflation concerns [3]. Group 3: Global Rate Cuts - Several countries have already initiated rate cuts ahead of the Fed, including Peru, which reduced its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% due to easing inflation pressures [4]. - Turkey's central bank cut its rate by 250 basis points to 40.5%, exceeding market expectations, while Russia lowered its rate by 100 basis points to 17% [4]. - These actions indicate a broader trend of monetary easing globally, potentially influenced by the Fed's decisions [4]. Group 4: Implications for Emerging Markets - The Fed's potential rate cuts may create room for adjustments in monetary policy among emerging market central banks, although the specific actions will depend on each country's economic fundamentals [5]. - Emerging markets face unique challenges, including currency depreciation pressures and capital outflow risks, which will influence their policy responses to the Fed's actions [5].

Group 1 - The upcoming week is termed "Super Central Bank Week," with major central banks including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan set to announce their interest rate decisions within a short timeframe [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's decisions are particularly influential, with market expectations leaning towards a potential rate cut of 25 basis points, and a possibility of a 50 basis points cut due to recent personnel changes within the Fed [2][3] - The Bank of Canada is also expected to follow suit with a rate cut, while the Bank of England is anticipated to maintain its rate at 4% amidst a complex economic situation [3] Group 2 - Several countries have already initiated rate cuts, with the Central Bank of Peru reducing its rate by 25 basis points, citing a decrease in inflation pressures [4] - The Central Bank of Turkey announced a significant cut of 250 basis points, lowering its rate to 40.5%, which exceeded market expectations [5] - The adjustments in monetary policy by various central banks are influenced by the Federal Reserve's actions, but each country's economic conditions will dictate their specific policy paths [5]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi warns that the probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession within the next twelve months has risen to 48%, indicating a concerningly high level of risk [1][5] Economic Indicators - Zandi highlights a significant decrease in U.S. residential building permits as a critical signal of impending economic recession, with current permit approvals nearing the lowest levels seen during the pandemic [1] - The ongoing weak demand from homebuyers and an increase in unsold homes have led builders to substantially reduce their development plans [1] Upcoming Data and Federal Reserve Actions - Zandi advises close attention to the upcoming August loan data to be released on September 17, coinciding with a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting where a rate cut is widely anticipated [3] - He suggests that this data may provide the Federal Reserve with additional justification for a rate cut, although he expresses skepticism about the effectiveness of such measures in preventing a recession [3] Overall Economic Outlook - Zandi has repeatedly warned of economic risks, stating that while the probability of recession has not exceeded 50%, the current risk level is historically high and warrants caution [5] - A combination of factors, including a slowdown in the real estate market, tightening credit conditions, and weakened consumer demand, poses a threat to a soft landing for the economy [5] - The effectiveness of potential monetary policy adjustments in countering the current downward pressures remains uncertain, with market participants and economists closely monitoring forthcoming data releases to assess the true trajectory of the U.S. economy [5]

预计美联储将降息25个基点，目标是到明年3月将利率从目前的4.5%上限降至3.25%。此外，零售销售 数据预计将因消费者信心低迷和汽车销售下滑而受阻，工业生产也可能再次萎缩，这些都印证了经济放 缓的趋势。 大西洋彼岸的英国，英格兰银行（BoE）在周四的会议上预计将维持利率不变。鉴于英国央行倾向于每 季度降息一次，且已在8月实施降息，本次会议降息的可能性微乎其微。然而，市场将密切关注其前瞻 性指引，以寻找进一步宽松的线索。就业市场是英国央行面临的一个不确定因素，尽管近期调查有所改 善，但秋季的就业数据仍是关键风险，尤其需要确认薪资增长是否正在放缓。 下周，全球金融市场的目光将再次聚焦于各国央行的利率决策会议，一场影响深远的货币政策调整浪潮 即将展开。美联储和加拿大央行预计将分别降息25个基点，而英国央行则可能选择按兵不动，但任何关 于未来宽松政策的暗示都将受到密切关注。 此外，多个国家重要的经济数据，如通胀、就业和工业产出报告，也将陆续发布，为市场提供判断未来 政策走向的关键线索。 在发达市场中，美国美联储的周三会议无疑是重中之重。尽管通胀依然高企，但美国的就业数据却持续 恶化，过去四个月就业增长有限，甚至有数 ...