植田和男表示，日本央行对经济活动和物价的基本判断未发生改变。他特别提到，2025财年最低工资同比涨幅超过5%，极有可能带动更广泛的企业加薪 行为，并强调"尤其重要的是，要确认迈向明年春季年度薪资谈判的初步动向是否具备足够动能"。 在通胀方面，植田和男指出，核心消费者通胀率预计将在2026财年上半年暂时回落至2%以下，此后将重新加速。他同时强调，在日本央行三年展望期的 后半段，通胀水平将大致与2%的目标相符。 植田和男提醒，需关注近期物价走势可能通过影响通胀预期，进而作用于潜在通胀的风险。 继半月前股债汇"三杀"后，日本市场今日再次迎来股债"双杀"。 关于货币政策，植田和男明确表示："为顺利实现物价稳定目标，有必要适时调整宽松力度，既不能过晚，也不能过早。"他解释称，即使政策利率上调， 宽松的金融环境仍将维持；加息并非"踩刹车"，而是"适度放松油门"，以支持经济与物价的稳定增长。 12月1日，日经225指数高开低走，盘中一度跌超千点，跌幅超2%。截至发稿，日经225指数报49280.48点，跌1.94%。 日本10年期国债收益率上涨7个基点至1.87%，30年期国债收益率短暂触及3.395%，创历史新高。 消息 ...

【导读】黑天鹅，日本准备加息，股市跌了1000点 大家好，关注一下日本飞出的一只"黑天鹅"。 12月1日，日本股市暴跌，日经225指数暴跌1000点，而日元上涨。 美股盘前全线跳水。 根据隔夜指数掉期（OIS）定价，在植田和男周一上午讲话后，交易员认为日本央行在12月19日会议上 加息的概率约为76%，高于周五的约58%；而到明年1月之前加息的概率，已升至约94%。 有分析师称："植田和男这次的演讲，听上去就是在为12月加息做准备。他甚至还提到了政府，表明他 很可能已经取得了政府方面对这一举措的理解。" 日本政府部分经济顾问则认为，把加息放在明年1月更合适，这样可以避免在政府上月刚推出疫情放宽 以来规模最大的财政刺激方案后，向市场传递"前脚扩张财政、后脚马上收紧货币"的混乱信号。 不过，通胀持续偏强以及日元疲软，都在为更早加息提供支持。植田和男讲话后，日元一度升至155.49 兑1美元，从发言前的约155.80水平进一步走强，但汇率仍接近去年曾四度触发政府干预的区间。 虽然日本央行一再强调并不以特定汇率水平为目标，但也承认，日元走弱会推高进口成本，进而加大通 胀压力。在生活成本高企令日本民众不满情绪升温的背景 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices have risen to around $52.00, supported by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have put pressure on U.S. Treasury yields [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's December meeting has increased from 50.1% to 85.3% over the past week, indicating a shift towards a more dovish monetary policy [2] - New York Fed President John Williams supports further easing of monetary policy, suggesting that current policy is somewhat restrictive and there is room for adjustment [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that XAG/USD is trading at $51.94, with the 20-day EMA indicating an upward trend, reinforcing bullish sentiment [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 59.15, confirming positive momentum without signs of overbought conditions [3] - Key support is identified at $50.40 (20-day EMA), while the historical high of $54.50 may act as a significant resistance level [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the short-term volatility in the U.S. stock market, driven by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and liquidity tightening, presents a buying opportunity for bulls [1][25]. Market Analysis - Despite a modest 5% pullback in the S&P 500 index, two-thirds of the top 1000 companies have experienced declines exceeding 10%, indicating a significant internal market adjustment [1][4]. - The report highlights that momentum stocks peaked on October 15, coinciding with a notable rise in the Treasury General Account (TGA) due to government shutdown concerns [3][4]. - The S&P 500 index reached its peak on October 29, the same day the Fed signaled a hawkish stance during its meeting [3][4]. Sector Recommendations - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook for the next 12 months, particularly favoring sectors such as consumer goods, healthcare, finance, industrials, and small-cap stocks [3][25]. - The report suggests that the recent broad-based individual stock adjustments are a positive sign, indicating that the market correction is in its latter stages [7][25]. Liquidity Conditions - Morgan Stanley notes that high-momentum and speculative growth stocks are more sensitive to liquidity constraints, which have been tightening since mid-October [16][18]. - The report anticipates that liquidity conditions will improve as the government shutdown ends and the TGA balance decreases significantly in the coming weeks [18]. Employment Market Insights - Various alternative labor market indicators show signs of weakness, but not an accelerating trend, suggesting a gradual slowdown rather than a sharp decline [9][10]. - The upcoming official employment data release on December 16 may create uncertainty for the Fed's decision on interest rates, potentially leading to short-term market volatility [15][25]. Long-term Outlook - Morgan Stanley's 2026 outlook report presents contrarian views, suggesting that the market is in an "early cycle" phase, contrary to the prevailing belief of being in a "late cycle" [19]. - The firm projects a 17% earnings growth for Nasdaq-related companies by 2026, exceeding the consensus estimates [19][22]. - The report emphasizes that despite recent market pullbacks, the underlying fundamentals remain strong, supporting a positive outlook for small-cap stocks and non-essential consumer goods [23][25].

2025 年野村中国投资年会已在深圳圆满落幕，野村经济学家、分析师和策略师为投资者、企业家深入剖 析市场动态，解读热点话题。请点击以下视频，查看野村主要发言嘉宾就市场变化、宏观经济走势、 AI 浪潮以及货币政策调整等核心议题进行的精彩分享和深入探讨。 Arvind Shah 野村亚洲（除日本外）股票研究销售主管 苏博文 Rob Subbarama 野村全球宏观研究主管及全 球市场研究部 联席主管 大家好。很高兴再次来到深圳，参加野村中国投资年会。今年是第17届中国投资论坛，我们看 到全球宏观讨论会场座无虚席。 我们在会上谈到了今年经济在面临来自美国关税和地缘政治的诸多冲击下，展现出韧性。展望 未来，我们还讨论到人工智能在推动经济体发展中变得越来越重要。我们的确也看到了日益增 长的分歧。我们预计美国2026年GDP增长2.4%、欧元区增长1.2%、日本增长0.6%。 但有趣的是，我们认为货币政策也将会大相径庭。我们认为美联储明年将再降息三次、欧洲央 行已经停止降息，日本央行将逆势而行在明年一月加息。 最后我想说，财政政策在减少全球预算赤字方面进展甚微。我们知道收入不平等在加剧，国 防、养老、气候变化、灾害方面的 ...

Core Viewpoints - The recent pressures in the US funding market were caused by the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction, the US Treasury's TGA fund replenishment, and seasonal fluctuations [2][5] - After experiencing liquidity tightening due to these factors, the funding market pressures have significantly eased, indicating that liquidity stress is now manageable [5][6] Funding Market Dynamics - The repo market indicators showed increased spreads during September and October due to month-end pressures and TGA fund replenishment, but these spreads have since decreased in November [3][5] - The increase in spreads between the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) and the interest on reserves balance (IORB) reflected liquidity tightening, but current levels are still below those seen during the 2019 repo market crisis [3][5] Use of Liquidity Tools - Financial institutions had been using the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) more frequently during September and October due to liquidity pressures, but usage has declined significantly since the end of October [4][5] - The SRF is designed to support effective monetary policy implementation and stabilize short-term rates during liquidity stress [4] Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to end balance sheet reduction on December 1 is expected to further alleviate funding market pressures [6] - The Fed plans to reinvest proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities into short-term Treasury securities, which will help stabilize its balance sheet and mitigate liquidity risks [6]

纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯的一席话，让市场重新审视美联储的降息路径。 "我仍然看到在近期进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间的空间。"11月21日，纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯在智利圣地亚哥的一次会议上的这番表述，迅速点 燃了金融市场的交易热情。 这位在美联储拥有永久投票权的重量级人物指出，当前货币政策处于"适度限制性"状态，因此有可能在不久的将来进行调整。 市场对此反应迅速而强烈。据CME FedWatch工具显示，交易员对12月降息的概率预期从周四的39%飙升至73%。美股应声反弹，道指暴涨逾700点。 01 三位一体的影响力 在美联储的权力结构中，存在一个非正式的"领导三人组"（troika），这个小组由美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔、副主席菲利普·杰斐逊和纽约联储主席约翰·威廉 姆斯组成。 威廉姆斯作为纽约联储主席，在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）中拥有永久投票权，而其他地区联储主席则轮流享有投票权。 纽约联储不仅仅是美联储系统中的一个分支机构，它还扮演着特殊角色——负责执行公开市场操作，与华尔街保持密切联系，并管理着庞大的资产负债表。 02 精准的时机 威廉姆斯的讲话出现在一个特别敏感的时刻。FOMC作为一个通常 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The New York stock market showed significant improvement in sentiment driven by macro data and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with all three major indices closing higher on November 21 [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 493.15 points to close at 46,245.41, an increase of 1.08%; the S&P 500 gained 64.23 points to finish at 6,602.99, up 0.98%; and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 195.035 points to close at 22,273.083, a rise of 0.88% [1] - All eleven sectors of the S&P 500 index experienced gains, with the communication services and healthcare sectors leading with increases of 2.15% and 2.11%, respectively [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve, indicated that the soft job market poses a greater threat to the economy compared to rising inflation, suggesting that the Fed could continue to lower interest rates [1] - Williams stated that while monetary policy has become somewhat more accommodative, it remains in a moderately restrictive state, allowing for further adjustments to bring rates closer to neutral [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The FedWatch Tool indicated a significant increase in the market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, rising from 39.1% to 71.7% [2] - The preliminary data from S&P Global showed that the U.S. manufacturing PMI for November was 51.9, below the expected 52.3 and the revised 52.5 from October, marking a four-month low [2] - The services PMI for the same period was reported at 55, exceeding the revised 54.8 from October, representing a four-month high [2] - The final consumer confidence index for November was reported at 51, surpassing the expected 50.5 and the initial estimate of 50.3, but still lower than October's 53.6 [3]

（原标题：刚刚！美联储，"救市"！） 【导读】纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示，鉴于劳动力市场疲软，他认为美联储在短期内仍有再次降 息的空间 中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹啊，全球资本市场风雨飘摇之际，美联储出手了。 纽约联储主席约翰·威 廉姆斯表示，美联储有可能在12月再次降息。 这位具有重要影响力的决策者在智利发表讲话时称，相 比通胀风险，他现在更担心劳动力市场面临的压力，这与联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）中一些偏鸽派 成员的观点一致。 约翰·威廉姆斯被称为美联储"三号人物"。作为纽约联储主席，他同时担任联邦公开市场委员会负责制 定利率政策的副主席，拥有永久投票权，在美联储决策中具有重要影响力。 威廉姆斯称："我认为当前货币政策仍然是温和偏紧的，不过相较于我们最近的行动之前，现在已经没 那么紧了。因此，我依然认为，在不久的将来还有进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间的空间，把政策立 场拉近到中性利率区间，从而在实现我们两个目标之间维持平衡。" 威廉姆斯的表态表明，在美联储主席鲍威尔试图在高度分化的决策层中凝聚共识、为12月9日至10日的 会议做准备之际，再次降息依然是一个现实选项。 在10月连续第二次降息之后，多 ...

Group 1 - Gold serves as a crucial asset in global financial markets, reflecting supply-demand dynamics and international geopolitical changes [1] - The study aims to reveal the intrinsic relationship between international situations and gold prices, analyzing the impact of various geopolitical events [2] - The research innovatively incorporates multiple factors such as geopolitical, economic, and monetary policy influences on gold prices [3] Group 2 - Gold's commodity attribute is linked to its industrial and jewelry demand, with supply from major gold-producing countries affecting its base price [4] - Gold's financial attribute positions it as a key investment asset and a hedge against risks, with significant increases in ETF holdings during crises [5] - Gold retains its monetary attribute as a recognized "hard currency," with central banks increasing their gold reserves to optimize foreign exchange structures [6] Group 3 - Political instability increases demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with historical examples showing significant price spikes during geopolitical conflicts [7] - Economic changes, such as growth slowdowns or inflation, influence investor demand for gold, leading to price fluctuations [8] - Adjustments in monetary policy by central banks affect gold prices through changes in liquidity, interest rates, and currency values [9] Group 4 - Historical geopolitical events like the Gulf War and the Russia-Ukraine conflict demonstrate varying impacts on gold prices, with the latter showing prolonged effects due to multiple influencing factors [10][11] - Economic crises, such as the 2008 financial crisis, highlight gold's role as a safe-haven asset, with significant price increases during market turmoil [12] - The European debt crisis showcased gold's value as a non-euro asset, with price fluctuations driven by regional economic risks [13] Group 5 - The implementation of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve post-2008 significantly boosted gold prices, illustrating the long-term effects of monetary policy [14] - Japan's negative interest rate policy provided a short-term uplift to gold prices, emphasizing the varying impacts of different monetary policies [15] - Recent geopolitical tensions, such as U.S.-China trade disputes and Brexit, have led to cyclical and event-driven fluctuations in gold prices [17][18]