Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan should gradually and cautiously adjust its monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's policy adjustment is necessary to respond to changing economic conditions [1] - A careful approach is emphasized to avoid potential market disruptions [1]

近期全球外汇市场呈现显著变化，美元指数持续走弱至多年低位。日本央行货币政策立场的微妙转变，叠加美日贸易关系的复杂演进，正在重塑两国货币的 相对价值。市场参与者密切关注这一趋势的发展轨迹，美元兑日元汇率面临多重压力因素的交织影响。 日本央行政策预期推动日元走强 美日贸易关系的复杂性为汇率走势增添了变数。贸易政策的不确定性对两国经济前景产生了不同程度的影响。日本作为出口导向型经济体，对贸易环境变化 较为敏感，这种敏感性在汇率市场得到了充分体现。 美国关税政策的潜在调整成为影响汇率预期的关键因素。市场担忧新的贸易壁垒可能对日本出口企业造成冲击，进而影响日本经济增长前景。这种担忧在一 定程度上限制了日元的上涨空间，但同时也为美元带来了下行压力。 贸易谈判的进展情况直接影响着市场情绪。谈判过程中的任何积极或消极信号都会在外汇市场引发即时反应。投资者对谈判结果的不同预期，导致美元兑日 元汇率出现较大幅度的波动。 来源：金融界 日本通胀数据持续超出央行目标水平，为货币政策调整提供了基础条件。东京地区消费者价格指数虽有所回落，但仍维持在3.1%的相对高位，明显高于日 本央行设定的2%通胀目标。核心通胀指标的韧性表现，增强了市 ...

Group 1 - The Israel-Iran conflict has been declared to be at a standstill, with both parties agreeing to cease hostilities under the mediation of President Trump [1][3] - The conflict lasted for 12 days, with a level of intensity that exceeded expectations, leading to a realization that a prolonged war was unlikely [3][6] - The U.S. involvement is seen as a strategic move to facilitate a resolution, allowing both Israel and Iran to save face while benefiting the U.S. the most [6] Group 2 - Iran's nuclear capabilities are a significant bargaining chip in negotiations with the U.S., and Israel's actions have been aimed at undermining any potential agreements [5] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut is linked to the current economic situation and may be a preparatory move for upcoming trade tensions with China [8][10] - The ongoing trade war with China is complicated by the U.S.'s internal economic challenges, and the recent geopolitical events may influence the U.S. strategy moving forward [10]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a significant decrease in gold ETF holdings and a notable drop in spot gold prices, driven by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and shifting market focus towards U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions [5][6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of June 24, 2025, the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported total holdings of 955.68 tons, a decrease of 1.72 tons from the previous trading day [5]. - The report indicates a downward trend in gold ETF holdings, reflecting changing market dynamics and investor sentiment [2][5]. Group 2: Spot Gold Prices - On June 24, spot gold prices experienced a significant decline, dropping to a low of $3,295.35 per ounce, the lowest level since June 9, before recovering slightly to close at $3,323 per ounce, marking a decrease of $46.02 or 1.37% [5]. - The decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced safe-haven demand following a reported ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which has led the market to perceive the geopolitical conflict as resolved [5]. Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve Policy - Market attention is shifting towards Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming congressional testimony, with expectations that he may signal potential interest rate cuts [5][6]. - Powell indicated that the Fed is in a favorable position to wait for clearer economic signals before adjusting monetary policy, with upcoming data expected to reveal the impact of tariffs on inflation [5][6]. - There are mixed signals within the Fed regarding interest rate cuts, with some members supporting a potential cut in July, while others suggest caution due to inflation concerns [6].

FICC日报 | 2025-06-25 国内政策提振，指数反弹 市场分析 金融促消费政策出台。国内方面，国新办举行新闻发布会介绍，9月3日上午，北京天安门广场将举行纪念中国人 民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年大会，包括检阅部队。央行等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和 扩大消费的指导意见》，从支持增强消费能力、扩大消费领域金融供给、挖掘释放居民消费潜力、促进提升消费供 给效能、优化消费环境和政策支撑保障等六个方面提出19项重点举措。海外方面，以色列和伊朗同意全面停火， 伊朗最高国家安全委员会发表声明，宣布与"以色列及其支持者"停火。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡也发表声明称，接 受美国总统特朗普提出的停火协议。 指数走高。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡走高，上证指数收复3400点，涨1.15%收于3420.57点，创业板指涨2.3%。 行业方面，板块指数涨多跌少，电力设备、非银金融、商贸零售、汽车行业涨幅居前，仅石油石化、煤炭行业收 跌。当日沪深两市成交金额上升至1.4万亿元。海外市场，鲍威尔在国会证词中表示，美联储目前处于有利位置， 能够耐心等待，待对经济走向有更清晰的判断后再考虑调整货币政策立场。但他不排除关税 ...

Economic Situation - The GDP in the first quarter experienced slight declines due to trade impacts, while private domestic final purchases grew by 2.5% [2][3] - The unemployment rate stood at 4.2% in May, with wage growth slowing but still exceeding inflation [2][3] Inflation Situation - The overall PCE and core PCE indicators were slightly above the 2% target, with short-term inflation expectations rising due to tariffs, but long-term expectations remain aligned with the target [4] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate range at 4.25%-4.5% and continues to reduce its balance sheet; the impact of tariffs will depend on their final levels, and the Fed will balance employment and inflation targets while waiting for more data before adjusting policies [5]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve has maintained its current interest rate of 4.25%-4.50%, indicating a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [10][32] - The U.S. economy shows signs of resilience despite a slowdown, with a robust labor market and a slight adjustment in GDP growth forecasts [10][11] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are contributing to rising inflationary pressures, prompting central banks to reassess their monetary policies [3][14] Major Asset Trends - U.S. Treasury yields have seen slight declines, with the 10-year yield at 4.38% and the 2-year yield at 3.90% [2] - The S&P 500 index has experienced a minor decrease of 0.15%, while the Nasdaq index increased by 0.21% [2] - Gold prices have dropped by 1.95%, while Brent crude oil prices have risen by 4.13% [2] Economic Data Summary - U.S. retail sales fell by 0.9% in May, with core retail sales also declining by 0.3% [18] - New housing starts in the U.S. were reported at 1.256 million units, below expectations of 1.357 million [18] - In the UK, inflation slightly decreased to 3.4%, while the Eurozone saw a rebound in construction output [24][26] Central Bank Actions - The Bank of England has kept its policy rate unchanged, but there are indications of potential rate cuts in August due to internal voting disagreements [11][12] - The Bank of Japan has also maintained its current policy stance, but is facing increasing inflationary pressures, leading to a planned reduction in bond purchases starting next year [13][28] Geopolitical Impact - The report notes that the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict has led to increased oil prices and shipping costs, raising concerns about a potential "second inflation" scenario [14] - The report emphasizes the need for central banks to reevaluate their inflation outlooks in light of these geopolitical developments [14]

欧洲央行管委维勒鲁瓦：除非出现重大外部冲击，包括中东地区可能出现的军事动态，否则在未来六个 月内，如果货币政策发生调整，可能更倾向于宽松方向调整。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Brazil indicates that future monetary policy measures may be adjusted and will not hesitate to continue the interest rate hike cycle if deemed appropriate [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank of Brazil is open to adjusting its monetary policy measures in response to economic conditions [1] - There is a clear indication that the Central Bank is prepared to continue raising interest rates if necessary [1]

日本央行将从2026年4月起每季度削减购债2000亿日元。 日本央行将从明年第二季度开始放慢削减购债步伐。 ...