Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices opened lower in the Asian session on November 4, currently trading around $3980, after fluctuating near $4000 on November 3, with a low of $3963 and a high of $4030, closing at $4001.16 per ounce. Despite a 53% increase in gold prices this year, there has been a decline of over 8% since the historical peak on October 20, driven by uncertainties from the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, the U.S. government shutdown, and China's end of the gold tax exemption policy [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second cut this year. However, Chairman Powell indicated that further cuts are not guaranteed, leading to a drop in the probability of a December rate cut from nearly 100% to 65.3%, which negatively impacted non-yielding gold [3][4]. - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve, with a rare 10-2 vote reflecting differing views on monetary policy. Dovish members advocate for significant rate cuts, while hawkish members express concerns over persistent inflation above the 2% target [4][5]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has created a data vacuum, contributing to a rise in the dollar index, which reached a new high of 99.89, further suppressing gold prices. The ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, indicating continued contraction, and key labor statistics are on hold due to the shutdown [5][6]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are expected to oscillate within the range of $3925 to $4025, with a stop loss of $10 and a target of $30 to $50 [5][6]. - The daily chart shows gold prices closing with a small body, indicating a struggle to break above the $4030 resistance level, suggesting continued contention between bulls and bears within the $3920 to $4030 range [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing short-term pressure due to diverging Federal Reserve policies and a government shutdown, while long-term support factors remain intact, indicating a pause in the upward trend rather than a collapse [2][3]. Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Short-term pressures are primarily caused by increasing divisions within the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a rate cut in December dropping from nearly 100% to 65.3% after Powell's comments [2]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to a halt in key economic data releases, pushing the dollar index to a three-month high and suppressing gold prices [2]. - Additional negative factors include China's termination of tax exemptions for certain gold retailers, which weakens physical demand, and a surge in U.S. corporate bond issuance that diverts funds and raises U.S. Treasury yields [2]. Group 2: Long-term Support Logic - Key factors such as global geopolitical risks, rising inflation, and central bank gold purchases have not changed, suggesting that the recent pause in gold price increases is temporary [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, after reaching 4381 in mid-October, gold faced significant pullback, but the pace of decline is slowing, indicating a potential for stabilization [5]. - In the four-hour chart, gold initially dipped before recovering, with key resistance levels identified at 4030/4031 and 4046, while support is noted at 3962 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities indicates that gold prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with geopolitical risks marginally decreasing. Without unexpected positive stimuli, London gold is anticipated to consolidate and fluctuate until the end of the year, with potential for new highs in the first quarter of next year [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Market Conditions** - Current gold price levels are still considered high, and volatility remains significant [1] - Geopolitical risks have shown a marginal decline, which may influence market stability [1] - **Future Expectations** - London gold is expected to consolidate and fluctuate until the end of the year, with new highs projected for the first quarter of next year [1] - For gold prices to continue rising, two necessary conditions must be met: 1. Implied volatility must decrease to levels seen in August and September 2. There must be new macroeconomic driving factors [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a pullback last week, hitting a two-week low of $3,886 on October 28, but rebounded significantly on October 30, despite a slight decline on October 31, closing at $4,003 per ounce. October saw a cumulative increase of 3.7%, marking the third consecutive month of gains [1] - Hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve officials on October 31 reduced the probability of a rate cut in December, leading to a three-month high in the US dollar index, which put pressure on gold prices. However, market sentiment remains cautious due to the impending longest government shutdown in US history and ongoing international geopolitical tensions, providing some support for gold [1] - The North American region officially transitioned to standard time on November 2, affecting trading hours for major financial instruments, including gold and silver, which will now open at 7:00 AM Beijing time [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a tax policy on gold, which may have a short-term negative impact on gold prices but could provide long-term support [2] - The ongoing conflict in Israel has resulted in over 250 deaths and hundreds of injuries, complicating the ceasefire situation between Israel and Palestine [2] - Technical indicators show that gold prices are in an overbought state, suggesting potential for a significant pullback. Historical data indicates that similar overbought conditions often lead to deep corrections, as seen in November 2024 with a maximum monthly fluctuation of $225 [2] - The current fundamental landscape is mixed, with both bullish and bearish factors at play, contributing to the expectation of significant volatility in gold prices [2] Group 3 - Aggressive trading strategies suggest entering short positions in the $4,005-$4,010 range with a stop loss at $4,015, targeting a reduction to $3,980-$3,970 [3] - Conservative strategies recommend waiting for a rebound to test the $4,030-$4,040 range before entering short positions, with a stop loss at $4,050 and targeting a reduction near $4,000 [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold market opened lower on November 3, with the dollar index strengthening, influenced by Federal Reserve officials opposing a rate cut in December and rising gold tax costs increasing short-term selling pressure [3] - Gold prices are expected to remain in a volatile state, with a trading range of 4050-3888 observed at the end of October, indicating a continuation of this trend into early November [4] - The potential for upward movement in gold prices is contingent on breaking above 4050, with targets set at 4150 and 4300, while a drop below 3935 could lead to further declines towards last week's low of 3888 [4] Group 2: Domestic Gold Market - Domestic gold, particularly the Shanghai gold and accumulation gold, has shown strong performance after a significant drop, with the Shanghai gold contract closing at 920 and accumulation gold at 915, indicating a recovery [5] - The focus for the domestic gold market this week is on breaking key resistance levels at 955 for Shanghai gold and 950 for accumulation gold, with a bullish outlook for the beginning of the week [5] - The strategy for trading domestic gold remains to maintain long positions, with attention on potential buying opportunities during the expected volatile market conditions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market dynamics for gold and silver, highlighting the interplay of both bullish and bearish factors affecting prices, particularly in light of recent geopolitical events and economic data releases. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent announcements from the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation regarding gold taxation are expected to have a short-term negative impact on gold prices, but may provide long-term support [1] - The ongoing conflict in Israel and the West Bank has resulted in over 250 deaths and hundreds of injuries, complicating the ceasefire situation between Israel and Palestine, which introduces both bullish and bearish sentiments in the market [1] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data release is highly anticipated, especially after the government shutdown that delayed the September data, making the October figures particularly significant [3] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The gold market has experienced significant volatility, with a price fluctuation exceeding $100, and a notable drop of nearly $500 before stabilizing around $3,886 [3] - The recent price action indicates a potential for a "super sweep" in the gold market, driven by a mix of strong buying pressure during the previous rally and substantial selling pressure during the recent decline [5] - Key resistance levels are identified at $4,150-$4,160, with strong support around $3,915-$3,920, indicating critical price points for future movements [7] Group 3: Trading Strategy - The market is expected to experience a tendency for price increases followed by pullbacks, suggesting a trading strategy focused on short-term buying and selling around key resistance and support levels [9] - For silver, the focus remains on maintaining a bullish outlook as long as prices do not fall below the $45.5-$46 range, with significant resistance identified at $49.5-$50 [9]

Group 1 - Gold T+D performance showed a significant increase of 1.79%, reaching 921.5 CNY per gram, with an intraday high of 923.45 CNY per gram [1] - Technical analysis indicates resistance levels at 949-1000 CNY per gram and support levels at 890-940 CNY per gram, with a potential rise to 970 CNY if it breaks above 950 CNY [3] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 30th day, causing flight delays at major airports due to air traffic control staff shortages, with average delays of 91 minutes at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport and 21 minutes at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport [2] - U.S. Vice President Vance warned that a prolonged government shutdown could disrupt travel during the busy holiday season, as the White House intensifies pressure on Democrats regarding the funding impasse [2]

Core Viewpoint - As of October 29, 2025, the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1,036.05 tons of gold, reflecting a decrease of 2.87 tons from the previous trading day, amidst a backdrop of declining gold prices and recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [6][7]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - The current total holding of the SPDR Gold Trust is 1,036.05 tons of gold [6]. - The holdings decreased by 2.87 tons compared to the previous trading day [6]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On October 29, spot gold prices experienced fluctuations, peaking at $4,029.46 per ounce before falling to a low of $3,917.25 per ounce, ultimately closing at $3,930.10 per ounce, a decline of $22.44 or 0.57% [6]. - Gold prices have been on a downward trend for four consecutive trading days [6]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first back-to-back rate cuts in a year [6][7]. - The rate cut was in line with market expectations, with the market having largely priced in three rate cuts for the year [7]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Analysis - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the market's expectation for another rate cut in December is "far from a done deal," suggesting a potential slowdown in the pace of rate cuts if economic conditions remain stable [7]. - Analysts believe that while gold may face short-term pressure if market rate expectations turn hawkish, its long-term upward trend remains intact due to ongoing monetary easing [7]. - Some analysts noted that the recent drop in gold prices of over 10% has made it attractive for bottom-fishing buyers, with central banks potentially increasing their gold holdings during this dip [7]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest that gold may experience further consolidation, with a key support level at $3,900; a breach could lead to testing lower levels [8]. - The daily chart shows a decisive reversal in momentum indicators, indicating strong bearish pressure in the short term [8].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00%, marking the second rate cut since 2025 and the fifth since the rate cut cycle began in September 2024 [1] - Historically, gold prices have risen during Fed rate cut cycles, with the latest cycle seeing a significant increase of approximately 55% in London spot gold prices as of October 29, 2025 [2] - Following the rate cut announcement, gold prices initially surged but later declined due to cautious remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who indicated that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed, leading to a drop in gold prices [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts noted that the market reacted quickly to Powell's comments, with a reduction in bets on further rate cuts, which supported the dollar and put pressure on gold prices [3] - Despite short-term adjustment pressures on gold prices, the long-term outlook remains positive according to brokerages, as the fundamental logic for gold prices remains intact as long as global safe-haven assets are insufficient and the dollar's credibility is not undermined [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses rumors surrounding the resignation of Jin Yi, the chief analyst at Guohai Securities, who allegedly made a significant profit from gold futures trading before leaving the company [2][3] - Jin Yi has a strong background in fixed income research, with 12 years of experience in the bond market and a history of managing over 100 billion yuan in bonds [2] - Following Jin Yi's departure, Yan Ziqi, a fixed income analyst from Huazheng Securities, has joined Guohai Securities as the new chief analyst [3] Group 2 - In September, gold prices experienced the largest monthly increase in 14 years, with spot gold reaching a peak of $4,381.29 per ounce on October 20 before falling below $4,000 on October 27 [3] - According to a report from China Merchants Securities, several factors are expected to drive gold prices higher in the future, including central banks' continued purchases of gold, a shift in gold ETFs from net sellers to net buyers, and the dual influence of monetary and financial attributes on gold prices [3]