Economic Activity - The latest Beige Book indicates a general slowdown in economic activity across the U.S. since the last report, with half of the regions reporting slight to moderate declines [1][4] - Labor market conditions show a cooling trend, with most regions reporting decreased labor demand, reduced hours, hiring freezes, and plans for layoffs [1][3] Labor Market - Overall employment levels have remained stable, but there is evidence of a shift in labor supply and demand dynamics, with increased job applicants and reduced employee turnover [1][3] - Wage growth continues at a moderate pace, with easing wage pressures, which is a positive sign for alleviating service sector inflation [2][3] Price and Cost Pressures - Prices have risen at a moderate pace, but there are expectations for faster increases in costs and prices in the future, primarily due to higher tariffs [2][4] - Businesses are adopting various strategies to cope with rising costs, including raising prices, compressing profit margins, or adding temporary surcharges [2][3] Sector Performance - Manufacturing reports a general decline in activity, with reduced new orders and increased inventories, influenced by uncertainty and tariffs [3][4] - Consumer spending shows mixed performance, particularly weak in non-essential goods, with some consumers making preemptive purchases to avoid future tariffs [3][4] - The real estate sector is experiencing stagnation or decline in residential sales and new construction, with increased inventory and slowing price growth [3][4] Financial Services - Loan demand is generally stable or weakening, with uncertainty suppressing trading activity, while credit standards remain stable or slightly relaxed [3][4] Market Implications - The economic slowdown and corporate profit pressures may pose downside risks for the stock market, while a cooling labor market could signal potential easing [5][6] - In the bond market, the economic slowdown may support lower bond yields, but inflation concerns from tariffs could limit this downward movement [5][6] - Commodity demand may be suppressed due to economic activity slowdown, but supply chain adjustments and trade policy changes could lead to structural impacts [7][8] Uncertainty and Future Outlook - The overarching theme of uncertainty, particularly related to trade policy, is a significant barrier to economic vitality, affecting both corporate decision-making and consumer sentiment [4][8] - The future economic trajectory will largely depend on how these uncertainties evolve and the impact of trade policies [9]

加拿大央行：将继续评估通胀压力的下行和上行时机及其强度。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the mild increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which rose by only 0.1% for the month, resulting in an annual inflation rate of 2.1%, aligning with Dow Jones' previous forecast but 0.1 percentage points lower than the estimated annual inflation rate [3] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, showed stable monthly and annual growth rates of 0.1% and 2.5% respectively, slightly below market expectations of 0.1% and 2.6%, indicating a further easing of inflationary pressures [3] - Economists express concerns about potential inflation risks triggered by tariffs, despite historical evidence suggesting limited direct impact of tariffs on inflation [3] Group 2 - The bond market reflects complex sentiments regarding long-term economic prospects, with the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield adjusting by 0.2 basis points to 3.937%, the 10-year yield nearly unchanged at 4.416%, and the 30-year yield rising by 0.6 basis points to 4.929% [3] - The gold futures market is currently showing a bullish trend, with prices trading around 771.80 yuan per gram, up by 0.98%, and reaching a high of 776.16 yuan per gram [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to improved global market risk sentiment, driven by legal rulings on U.S. tariffs and easing geopolitical tensions, despite the long-term investment value of gold remaining significant [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled on May 28 that the Trump administration's tariff policies were illegal, which boosted market risk appetite and led to a sell-off in gold, causing spot gold prices to drop below $3,300 per ounce [2][3]. - Gold prices have shown increased volatility this year, initially rising to historical highs before entering a phase of adjustment, leading to investor uncertainty [3][4]. - Key factors contributing to the recent adjustment in gold prices include breakthroughs in global tariff negotiations, easing geopolitical conflicts, and profit-taking by investors who had previously accumulated significant gains [4][5]. Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Despite the recent price adjustments, gold is expected to maintain long-term support due to ongoing demand for safe-haven assets amid uncertainties in trade negotiations and inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy [6][7]. - The Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts are anticipated to benefit gold, with expectations of three rate cuts within the year, which could further enhance gold's appeal as an investment [7]. - Strong demand from central banks and global investors is likely to drive gold prices higher, with predictions suggesting that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce by 2030, reflecting a bullish long-term outlook [8].

Group 1 - The confidence index for business and professional services in the UK dropped from -28 in February to -43 in May, marking the lowest level since November 2022 [1] - Consumer-facing service companies also experienced a decline in confidence, with price increase expectations rising at the fastest rate in two years for business and professional services [1] - Concerns were raised regarding the increase in employer social security contributions by £25 billion (approximately $33.78 billion) and a nearly 7% rise in the minimum wage, both effective from April [1] Group 2 - The profit expectations index for business and professional services fell to -47, the lowest level since February 2020, and lower than the previous quarter's -36 [2] - Investment intentions, business volume, and hiring conditions all showed a decline [2] - The UK services sector's PMI for May recorded an initial value of 50.2, indicating a slow return to growth, despite low confidence in future prospects [2]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 不过，仅过了2天，特朗普又改变了主意。当地时间25日，美国总统特朗普表示，欧盟请求将关税谈判 期限延长至7月9日，他已同意这一请求。特朗普称，本次与欧盟就关税问题的谈话"非常愉快"。 近日，黄金波动幅度加大。4月22日，现货黄金价格一度突破3500美元/盎司，随后，现货黄金便在3100 —3500美元/盎司区间大幅波动，5月1日，现货黄金最低跌至3201美元/盎司，5月7日，现货黄金又涨至 最高3438美元/盎司，5月15日，现货黄金经过多日调整后，一度跌至3120美元/盎司，此后又在上周五 （5月23日）回到3350美元/盎司上方。 对于黄金后市，多家机构认为将保持震荡走势。 申银万国期货研究所贵金属分析师林新杰认为，影响黄金价格走势的主要有两条主线，一条是有关穆迪 下调美国评级和特朗普推出的减税法案继续在市场中发酵，长端美债利率继续攀升，30年期美债利率也 金价后市如何走？ 5月27日，黄金期货、现货盘中大幅走低，现货黄金盘中一度逼近3300美元/盎司，跌幅超过1%。 截至发稿，伦敦金现跌1.04%，报3307.48美元/盎司。 C ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the dramatic changes in Trump's tariff policy towards China, with tariffs fluctuating from 34% to 125% and then down to 10% after negotiations, indicating a volatile trade environment [1][3] - The market has shown resilience, recovering losses incurred after the initial tariff announcements, suggesting that the impact of tariffs may not be as severe as initially feared [1][3] - The article highlights the necessity for the U.S. to lower tariffs to avoid significant economic and inflationary pressures, as high tariffs are unsustainable for both the U.S. and China [3][5] Group 2 - Tariffs are expected to have a significant impact on U.S. inflation, potentially raising the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by 1 percentage point, although factors like low oil prices and inventory replenishment may delay this effect until late Q3 [25][32] - The article outlines that U.S. inventory levels have increased significantly, with a 20% rise in import amounts and a 2.4% increase in nominal inventory compared to the previous year, indicating a robust supply chain response [10][18] - Different industries will experience varying levels of pressure from tariffs, with textiles, apparel, computers, and electronics facing the most significant challenges due to their high reliance on imports from China [22][23] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that U.S. economic growth can be sustained until the end of the year, supported by consumer spending and investment, but warns that renewed tariffs could lead to stagnation [36][37] - It notes that the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates is constrained by inflationary pressures, which could further suppress private sector credit expansion and investment [8][36] - The potential for tax cuts and further tariff reductions could alleviate some of the economic pressures, but the timing and implementation of these measures remain uncertain [9][57] Group 4 - The financial market's stability is under scrutiny, particularly following a downgrade in the U.S. credit rating by Moody's, which could affect investor confidence and market dynamics [58][59] - The article points out that the upcoming debt ceiling resolution and increased bond supply could lead to liquidity issues in the market, impacting the overall financial landscape [59][61] - Long-term concerns about the U.S. dollar's status as a reserve currency are raised, particularly if tariffs continue to affect trade balances and investor sentiment [65]

Group 1 - The core issue of whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates is a complex interplay between the interests of the financial sector and the real economy in the U.S. [1] - The pressure from the Trump administration on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to lower interest rates highlights the ongoing conflict between different interest groups within the U.S. [1] - The recent Chicago Economic Club speech by Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve would not take emergency measures in response to market fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of internal economic dynamics [1] Group 2 - Following high-level U.S.-China trade talks, the expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut has cooled, with a majority of Americans anticipating price increases due to tariffs [2] - The inflation rate in the U.S. remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, making an immediate rate cut unlikely, leading Citibank to push back its rate cut forecast from June to July [2] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast, now expecting the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates in December, indicating a shift from a protective stance to a normalization approach due to stable economic growth [2] Group 3 - The U.S. government's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates is driven by the desire to devalue the dollar and improve manufacturing competitiveness [3] - The significant U.S. national debt, which has surpassed $36 trillion, adds urgency to the government's push for lower interest rates to facilitate the refinancing of high-interest debt [3] - The ongoing conflict between the Federal Reserve's short-term interests and the government's strategic goals suggests that the debate over interest rate cuts will continue, making predictions about future rate changes premature [3]

Group 1 - The UK is considering adjusting monthly CPI data to better measure inflation trends [1] - The adjustment aims to eliminate seasonal fluctuations, aiding the Bank of England and investors in assessing inflationary pressures [1] - The Office for National Statistics plans to consult on whether to compile seasonally adjusted month-on-month inflation data in the coming months [1] Group 2 - Other countries like the US and France already use this technique to mitigate price volatility caused by seasonal changes [1] - This adjustment is seen as a significant shift for those trying to gauge inflation direction and potential interest rate movements [1] - Paul Dales, Chief UK Economist at Capital Economics, stated that this will provide a better and more reliable indicator of current price pressures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) members are increasingly inclined to believe that trade shocks may lead to inflationary pressures beyond the short term [1] Group 1 - ECB members discussed the potential long-term impacts of trade shocks on inflation, indicating a shift in their perspective [1] - The meeting highlighted concerns regarding the sustainability of inflation rates in the context of ongoing trade tensions [1] - There is a growing consensus among ECB members that external trade factors could have lasting effects on the Eurozone economy [1]