Goosehead Insurance (NasdaqGS:GSHD) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 17, 2026 04:30 PM ET Company ParticipantsDan Farrell - VP of Capital MarketsMark Jones Jr. - CFO and COOMark Miller - President and CEOConference Call ParticipantsAndrew Andersen - Equity Research AnalystAndrew Kligerman - Equity Research AnalystBrian Meredith - Equity Research AnalystKatie Sakys - Equity Research AnalystMark Hughes - Equity Research AnalystMichael Zaremski - Equity Research AnalystPablo Singzon - Equity Research AnalystPaul ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 10% on a 4% increase in gross transaction value (GTV) in Q4 2025, reflecting strong execution and cost management [4][11] - Adjusted earnings per share increased by 17% in Q4 and 15% for the full year, driven by higher operating income and lower net interest expense [14] - Full-year GTV increased by 2%, driven by new wins in the automotive sector, partially offset by cyclical pressure in the commercial construction and transportation (CC&T) sector [12][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Automotive GTV increased by 3% in Q4, with unit volumes rising by 2%. Excluding catastrophic impacts, GTV and unit volumes grew approximately 12% and 8%, respectively [11][12] - In the CC&T sector, GTV increased by 9%, with unit volumes growing approximately 10% and average price per lot sold increasing due to improvements in asset mix [12][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gross returns or salvage values as a percentage of pre-accident cash values expanded, supporting approximately 7% year-over-year growth in the U.S. insurance average selling price [6] - The inflation differential between automotive repair costs and used vehicle pricing continued to narrow, supporting an increase in the total loss ratio [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on disciplined execution and strategic progress, prioritizing scale, longevity, and strategic positioning to expand market share and enhance partner relationships [4][5] - A new multi-year agreement with one of the largest partners was signed, reinforcing trust and providing long-term visibility into expected volumes [5][6] - The company plans to roll out the IAA Total Loss Predictor in 2026 to improve vehicle routing efficiency, which is expected to deliver cost savings for partners [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding early signs of improvement in seller confidence within the CC&T sector, supported by stabilizing used equipment values and lower interest rates [9] - The outlook for 2026 anticipates full-year GTV growth between 5% and 8%, with a focus on volume-led growth and continued market share gains [15] Other Important Information - The company expects full-year capital expenditures for 2026 to be between $350 million and $400 million, with a mix of one-third on technology-related investments and two-thirds on traditional physical assets [15][38] - The company is committed to ongoing operational excellence and cost savings initiatives to maximize profit flow-through [15][47] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on 2026 guidance and market share capture - Management confirmed that the guidance includes annualization of wins already announced and any additional terms agreed upon [20] Question: Flow-through of GTV to revenue - Management indicated there may be slight pressure on the take rate but remains optimistic about unit economics and volume growth [22] Question: Improvement in CC&T sector - Management noted early signs of improvement in partner conversations, indicating potential for a return to a normalized cycle [26] Question: Details on the total loss predictor - The total loss predictor aims to enhance efficiency by determining vehicle status at the scene of an accident, potentially reducing costs associated with storage and rental fees [28] Question: AI development among competitors - Management acknowledged varying capabilities among insurance carriers regarding AI development, emphasizing their role in providing integrated solutions [35] Question: Capital allocation strategy - Management is focused on debt reduction, business investment, and evaluating share repurchase opportunities as part of their capital allocation strategy [53] Question: Impact of autonomous vehicles - Management does not foresee immediate risks from autonomous vehicles but acknowledges potential long-term changes in collision rates and vehicle ownership [57] Question: Total salvage volumes outlook - Management expects to continue gaining market share and growing faster than the market, without providing specific volume breakdowns [78]

Market Overview - Major indexes opened lower, with technology stocks leading the decline due to ongoing fears that AI tools may replace industry-specific software [1][2] - Software stocks, including Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Palantir, each dipped around 1%, while Salesforce fell 2% and Autodesk slid 3%, contributing to a year-to-date decline of 22% for the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) [2] - The S&P 500 experienced its second consecutive losing week, with the Dow and S&P logging their fourth down week in the last five, and the Nasdaq extending its losing streak to five weeks, the longest since 2022 [2][3] Market Dynamics - Despite early losses, indexes managed to close slightly positive, aided by a softer tone regarding Iran and reduced trading activity due to the Lunar New Year in China and U.S. traders returning from a long weekend [3] - Software stocks continued to face pressure, while mega-cap stocks showed some resilience despite rising bond yields [4] - The dollar ended flat, gold prices fell below $5,000, and Bitcoin initially surged but retreated to around $68,000 [4] Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) - The domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) is currently at +8.06% above its moving average, with a "Buy" signal effective from May 20, 2025 [10] - The International TTI stands at +12.00% above its moving average, with a "Buy" signal effective from May 8, 2025 [10] - The TTIs have remained stable despite market fluctuations, only giving up a small fraction while staying in positive territory [9]

Performance was characterized by a divergence between Infrastructure strength and Agricultural softness, with Utility demand driven by grid expansion, AI data centers, and aging infrastructure replacement. Utility growth of 21% was enabled by targeted capacity investments, including equipment upgrades and AI-enabled scheduling that improved throughput and execution at scale. The Agriculture segment faced a challenging macro environment, particularly in Brazil where tight credit availability and delaye ...

Fortive Corporation Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Fortive Corporation - **Key Executives**: Olumide Soroye (President and CEO), Mark Åkerström (SVP and CFO) Core Industry and Business Strategy - **Industry**: Industrial technology and software solutions - **Core Strategy**: Fortive's strategy is built on three pillars: 1. Accelerate profitable organic growth 2. Allocate capital with discipline 3. Build and maintain investor trust [1][2][3] Financial Performance and Growth Projections - **Recent Performance**: Fortive reported a 2%-3% organic growth forecast for 2026, slightly below the target of 3%-4% [7][12] - **Long-term Growth**: The company anticipates that growth will accelerate in 2026 and 2027, with 2026 expected to be faster than 2025 [10][12] - **EBITDA Margin**: Adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 110 basis points in 2025, with expectations for further expansion of 50-100 basis points in 2026 [44][46] Product Innovation and AI Integration - **AI Strategy**: Fortive has been integrating AI into its operations since 2017, enhancing both internal processes and customer-facing innovations [18][22] - **Product Development**: The company is focused on accelerating new product introductions, particularly in high-growth markets, with a significant emphasis on customer experience [7][8][25] - **Software Solutions**: Fortive's software brands are leveraging AI to create differentiated offerings, enhancing customer engagement and operational efficiency [31][32] Segment Performance Insights - **IOS Segment**: The IOS segment saw a 4% growth in Q4 2025, driven by product innovation and commercial acceleration [50][60] - **AHS Segment**: The AHS segment is experiencing stable growth in software products, with strong customer loyalty and ongoing innovation [89][99] - **Government Demand**: The demand for procurement and SMA solutions in the government sector has stabilized, with expectations for future growth as deferred maintenance needs arise [81][86] Regional Market Trends - **North America**: Strong point of sale data, particularly in data centers, indicates continued growth potential [65][66] - **EMEA**: Sequential improvement noted in Q4, but customers remain cautious about large orders [66][67] - **APAC**: Mixed performance, with India showing strength while China remains stable [68][69] Capital Allocation and M&A Strategy - **Free Cash Flow**: Fortive generates approximately $1 billion in free cash flow annually, with a focus on buybacks and disciplined capital allocation [111][113] - **M&A Approach**: The company is not pursuing aggressive M&A but is open to acquiring businesses with market-leading positions at favorable prices [117][120] Key Innovations and Future Outlook - **Operational Focus**: Fortive is positioned to capitalize on the operations and maintenance lifecycle of newly built industrial capacities, particularly in data centers [138][140] - **Market Positioning**: The company aims to strengthen its competitive edge through continuous innovation and customer engagement strategies [125][143] Conclusion Fortive Corporation is strategically focused on enhancing its growth through disciplined capital allocation, innovative product development, and leveraging AI technologies. The company is well-positioned to navigate market challenges and capitalize on emerging opportunities in the industrial technology sector.

Core Viewpoint - REITs are regaining favor as a safe haven investment, showing a year-to-date increase of 6.9% compared to a broader market decline [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The turning point for market sentiment occurred in early February, coinciding with a reversal of previously hot trades and a focus on significant capital expenditure (capex) by hyperscalers during earnings season [3] - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon experienced declines of 5%, 10%, and 18% respectively, contributing to a 4% drop in the Nasdaq and a 2% drop in the S&P in the first two weeks of February [7][8] - Traditional safe havens, including gold and silver, have not performed well, leading investors to consider REITs as a more reliable option [9][11] Group 2: REITs' Fundamental Strength - REITs have demonstrated strong fundamental performance over the past five years, with metrics such as FFO (Funds From Operations) growth and improved margins [13][16] - The median REIT trades at 13.8X FFO, significantly lower than the S&P's 29.3X trailing earnings, indicating a divergence in valuation [21] - REITs currently offer an FFO yield of 7.24%, compared to the S&P's earnings yield of 3.4%, allowing for larger dividend payouts [24] Group 3: Cash Flow Reliability - REITs benefit from contractual revenue streams that can extend up to 30 years, providing visibility into future cash flows and supporting consistent dividend growth [17][19] - A forecast indicates that 36 REITs are expected to increase their dividends in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting their reliable cash flow structure [17] Group 4: Direct Benefits from Tech Capex - Many REITs are positioned to benefit directly from the trillions of dollars being spent on AI infrastructure, with companies like Equinix reporting accelerating growth in AFFO per share due to increased demand for data centers [29] - The demand for infrastructure related to AI is driving significant growth opportunities for REITs, contrasting with the challenges faced by hyperscalers [29] Group 5: Market Correction and Future Outlook - The current market correction is seen as a recalibration of previously inflated tech valuations, with capital shifting towards undervalued sectors like REITs [32][33] - The outperformance of REITs in 2026 is viewed as just the beginning, with expectations for further normalization of relative value as the market adjusts [33]

Robinhood Opens the Private Market to Retail Investors - Moby BREAKING NEWS Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev kicked off the week with a short skit. Tenev, putting on his best “insider,” takes a mock phone call from someone called “boss.” This “boss” is informing him about another $100-million raise in their new round, showing, however awkwardly, how retail investors are almost always left out of these types of “insider” conversations. Tenev, in short, wants to open the private market up to the public. The trad ...

Bitcoin miner Bitdeer has overtaken MARA in terms of self-mining hash rate among publicly traded companies, establishing itself as an industry leader within the past month, according to JPMorgan analysts. At 63.2 exahashes per second (EH/s), Bitdeer is now allocating more computational resources to Bitcoin’s network for itself than MARA, analysts led by Reginald Smith wrote. MARA last reported a self-mining hash rate of 60.4 EH/s. The shakeup follows what analysts described as an “impressive” month for Bit ...

Quick Read Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) Q4 revenue rose 18% to $113.8B. Net income increased 30% to $34.5B. Google Cloud revenue surged 48% to $17.7B driven by AI infrastructure demand. Alphabet stock dropped 11% following 2026 capex guidance ranging from $175B to $185B. A recent study identified one single habit that doubled Americans’ retirement savings and moved retirement from dream, to reality. Read more here. Terry Smith, the founder and CEO of Fundsmith, is often dubbed the "English Warren Buffe ...

Core Insights - The Hecht Commodity Report is recognized as one of the most comprehensive commodities reports available, covering market movements of over 20 different commodities and providing various trading recommendations [1][2]. Group 1: Report Overview - The report includes bullish, bearish, and neutral calls, along with directional trading recommendations and actionable ideas for traders through a portfolio approach [1][2]. Group 2: Author Background - Andrew Hecht, a veteran with 35 years of experience on Wall Street, specializes in commodities and precious metals, and manages The Hecht Commodity Report [2].