这也成为了消费端的潜在隐患。美国商务部称，4月份零售额仅增长0.1%，较3月份1.7%的飙升相比大幅回落。在关税提高之前，美国人急于购买新车和其 他进口商品，之后人们开始对贸易战将如何发展持谨慎态度。 牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，消费者越来越担心关税的经济影响，未来一年的通胀预期上升至 1981年以来的最高水平。通胀预期的持续上升增加了美联储短期内保持利率稳定的可能性。 富国银行首席经济学家布拉德（Sam Bullard）则在报告中写道，近几个月来，消费者支出有所放缓，但尚未达到与情绪恶化相匹配的水平。需要注意的 是，消费者在未来几个月的行为将说明问题。 不过，劳动力市场依然稳定，雇主正在努力应对特朗普贸易政策的不确定性。美国劳工部表示，上周初请失业金人数22.9万，环比持平，仍处于年内低位。 受到广泛关注的有关政府裁员的影响，暂时没有体现在数据中。 施瓦茨表示，消费者越来越担心关税的经济影响，未来一年的通胀预期上升至1981年以来的最高水平。 上周美股迎来强劲反弹，标普500指数以五连阳收复年内失地，中美日内瓦经贸会谈提振市场信心。然而，种种迹象 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [7]. Core Views - The easing of US-China tariffs is expected to positively impact metal demand, with a focus on the economic fundamentals following the tariff negotiations [1][2]. - Gold prices have fluctuated due to lower-than-expected US inflation and dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating a potential for future price recovery depending on tariff negotiations [1][36]. - The copper market is cautious due to high tariff levels, but inventory reductions provide some support for prices [2]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventory levels and positive macro sentiment following substantial progress in US-China tariff talks [2]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have been affected by a 2.3% year-on-year increase in the US CPI for April, which was lower than expected, leading to a decrease in gold prices [1]. - Powell's comments suggest a higher tolerance for inflation, which may lead to fluctuations in gold prices based on tariff negotiations [1][36]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are under pressure due to ongoing tariff concerns, but a reduction in global copper inventory to 572,000 tons provides some support [2]. - Aluminum prices are buoyed by low inventory levels, with domestic social inventory dropping below 600,000 tons [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices have stabilized, with carbon lithium futures rising by 1.3% to 65,000 yuan/ton, while supply pressures are expected to persist [3]. - The lithium market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with a 9% decrease in carbon lithium production this week [3]. Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and others in the non-ferrous metals sector [1][2][3].

美国商务部当日早间发布的数据显示，美国4月份新房开工数量年率为136.1万套，略低于市场预期的 136.2万套，但高于3月份修订后的133.9万套。同期，美国4月份新房建设许可数量年率为141.2万套，低 于市场预期的145万套和3月份修订后的148.1万套。 哈里斯金融集团执行合伙人杰米·考克斯（Jamie Cox）说，市场目前在重新定价美国出现滞涨的风险。 对那些认为关税将立即导致通胀大幅上涨并认为滞涨是基本预测情形的人而言，其观点尚未得到数据的 支持。 美国消费者可能感到担忧，但并没像想象的那样停止消费。 新华财经纽约5月16日电 由于投资者整体保持乐观预期，纽约股市三大股指16日高开，早盘整体窄幅盘 整，午后涨幅扩大，收盘时纽约股市三大股指均上涨。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨331.99点，收于42654.74点，涨幅为0.78%；标 准普尔500种股票指数上涨41.45点，收于5958.38点，涨幅为0.70%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨98.78点，收 于19211.10点，涨幅为0.52%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块十涨一跌。医疗板块和公用事业板块分别以1.96%和1. ...

外汇经纪商Monex美国公司交易业务负责人胡安•佩雷兹（Juan Perez）表示，尽管有很多数据，但消息 面在占主导地位。由于贸易领域情况变化很快，未来也没有指引，数据并没有真正反映出人们的焦虑。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1152美元，低于前一交易日的1.1178美元；1英镑兑换1.3278美元，低 于前一交易日的1.3299美元。 1美元兑换145.90日元，高于前一交易日的145.68日元；1美元兑换0.8390瑞士法郎，高于前一交易日的 0.8362瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3985加元，高于前一交易日的1.3966加元；1美元兑换9.7871瑞典克朗，高 于前一交易日的9.7397瑞典克朗。 编辑：王春霞 新华财经纽约5月16日电（记者刘亚南）由于美国消费者通胀预期继续走高，16日美元兑一揽子货币全 面走高，美元指数在隔夜市场下跌，当日早间弱势盘整，随后由跌转涨，午后窄幅盘整，尾盘时美元指 数上涨。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.21%，在汇市尾市收于101.092。 密歇根大学当日发布的初步调查数据显示，美国消费者5月份信心指数为50.8，低于市场预期的53和4月 份的52.2 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is considering adjustments to its monetary policy framework due to significant changes in the economic and financial environment since 2020, particularly in balancing employment and inflation goals [1][2][6] - The upcoming review of the monetary policy framework is the first since 2020, with the Fed aiming to adapt to the current high inflation and interest rate environment [2][3] - Despite the potential framework revisions, anchoring inflation expectations remains a critical task for the Fed, as future inflation may become more volatile [3][4] Group 2 - Recent economic data indicates that the U.S. economy has not shown clear signs of "stagflation," with consumer spending and investment remaining robust despite a contraction in GDP [4][5] - The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, below market expectations, suggesting a trend of easing inflation [4][5] - However, concerns persist regarding the long-term impact of U.S. trade policies on inflation, which may take time to fully manifest in economic data [5][6] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that while the Fed is poised to adjust its monetary policy framework, it is unlikely to affect current policy decisions, with a preference for a "wait and see" approach [6][7] - The labor market remains strong, and there are no immediate signs of economic deterioration, which diminishes the urgency for the Fed to lower interest rates [6][7] - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have shifted, with predictions now leaning towards a potential cut in December rather than July, reflecting increased uncertainty [6][7]

在通胀预期方面，消费者预期未来一年价格将以7.3%的年增速上涨，为1981年以来最高水平；而对未 来5至10年的年均通胀预期也上升至4.6%，创1991年以来新高。 此次调查是在4月22日至5月13日期间进行的，恰逢中美达成临时协议，同意在贸易谈判期间暂时互相减 少部分关税。然而，即便如此，密歇根大学消费者调查主管Joanne Hsu指出："临时的暂停并不足以让 消费者相信贸易政策已趋于稳定，从而放心地进行长期消费或投资规划。" 数据显示，接近四分之三的受访者自发提及关税问题，显示贸易政策持续成为消费者经济预期的关键影 响因素。这一担忧跨越党派界线，甚至有大量共和党支持者也表达了类似的忧虑。 智通财经APP获悉，美国密歇根大学公布的最新数据显示，美国5月消费者信心指数意外下滑至50.8， 不仅低于4月的52.2，也创下历史第二低水平，仅高于2022年6月创下的最低纪录。这一结果低于外媒对 经济学家调查中几乎所有的预期值，凸显出民众对经济前景的悲观情绪。 尽管消费者对物价上涨的忧虑加剧，近期通胀数据却呈现出放缓迹象。美国政府公布的数据显示，4月 份扣除食品和能源后的核心消费者价格指数连续第三个月涨幅低于预期，表 ...

智通财经APP获悉，周五，三大指数上涨。本周美股三大股指均录得涨幅，道指累计上涨3.41%，标普 500指数上涨5.27%，纳斯达克综合指数涨幅达7.15%。今日收盘后，穆迪将美国信用评级由AAA下调至 AA1。穆迪称，评级下调反映政府债务增加；到2035年美国联邦债务负担将升至GDP的134%；预计到 2035年美国联邦政府赤字将达到GDP的9%；随着经济因应关税而做出调整，GDP增长可能会放缓。 【美股】截至收盘，道指涨331.99点，涨幅为0.78%，报42654.74点；纳指涨98.78点，涨幅为0.52%，报 19211.10点；标普500指数涨41.45点，涨幅为0.70%，报5958.38点。标普500指数为连续第五个交易日上 涨。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数涨83.78点，涨幅0.35%，报23764.25点；英国富时100指数涨50.00点，涨幅 0.58%，报8683.75点；法国CAC40指数涨33.22点，涨幅0.42%，报7886.69点；欧洲斯托克50指数涨 14.67点，涨幅0.27%，报5426.75点；西班牙IBEX35指数涨153.42点，涨幅1.10%，报14062.82 ...

周五公布的密歇根大学5月份的初值数据显示，美国消费者信心意外创下历史第二低，长短期通胀预期继续攀升。原因是，人们对关税的担忧日益加剧。 美国5月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值50.8，为史上第二低，不及预期的53.4，4月前值为52.2。本次消费者信心的数值低于媒体调查的几乎所有经济学 家的预测。 分项指数方面，现况指数初值57.6，预期59.6，前值59.8；预期指数初值46.5，接近45年来的最低点，预期48.2，前值47.3。 市场备受关注的通胀预期方面，5月密歇根大学1年通胀预期初值7.3%，为1981年以来的最高水平，预期6.5%，前值6.5%；5年通胀预期初值4.6%，为1991 年以来的最高，预期4.4%，前值4.4%。 最近几个月的密歇根消费者调查表明，美国人的通胀预期已突破近年来的区间波动。此前相当长时间，密歇根5年通胀预期大体在2.9%-3.1%的窄幅波动区 间。2022年6月美国通胀处于本轮峰值之际，该通胀预期初值一度达到3.3%，创下2008年以来的最高。最近几次调查的长期通胀预期已显著高于疫情后的 峰值水平。 对于密歇根大学消费者长期通胀预期的飙升，此前美联储主席鲍威尔称，该通胀预期数 ...

Domestic News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised the "Major Asset Restructuring Management Measures for Listed Companies," introducing a private equity "reverse linkage" arrangement for the first time [1] International News - The Federal Reserve's Bostic expects one interest rate cut this year, stating that the U.S. will not fall into recession [3] - New Jersey Transit, the third-largest commuter rail operator in the U.S., has gone on strike for the first time in 40 years, affecting the travel of hundreds of thousands [3] - U.S. one-year inflation expectations for May reached the highest level since 1981; consumer confidence slightly dipped to the second-lowest historical level but ended a four-month streak of significant declines [3] - Trump announced that the U.S. has $10 trillion in investments, considering increasing it to approximately $13 trillion, and has proposed a nuclear agreement to Iran [3] - Trump indicated that new tariffs will be imposed on many countries within the next two to three weeks; Japan may not reach a trade agreement with the U.S. by the end of July, and the Korea-U.S. trade agreement may be finalized after the July 8 deadline [3] - In the Russia-Ukraine talks, discussions lasted only two hours, with Russia demanding Ukrainian troop withdrawal as a condition for ceasefire; Ukraine found the demands unacceptable, and both sides agreed to continue negotiations on the exchange of 1,000 prisoners of war [3] Company News - The Hang Seng Index will include Midea Group and ZTO Express; the Hang Seng Tech Index will add BYD Company while removing Reading Group [4] - The Honghu Fund Phase II, with a scale of 20 billion yuan, is set to invest in the market soon [4] - CATL announced the H-share offering price at HKD 263.00 per share [4] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange will closely monitor *ST Jinguang and other stocks with delisting risk warnings this week [4] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange will focus on stocks with abnormal price fluctuations, such as *ST Yushun and ST Jiajia, this week [4]

5月美国一年前通胀预期升至7.3% 金十数据5月16日讯，密歇根大学消费者调查主任Joanne Hsu表示，5月美国一年期通胀率预期从上月的 6.5%飙升至7.3%。民主党和共和党的预期都有所增长。长期通胀预期从4月份的4.4%上升至5月份的 4.6%，其中共和党人的预期月度增幅特别大。5月份的终值将显示，5月12日中美暂停关税在多大程度 上导致消费者更新了他们的预期。 ...