美联储巴尔金：可能的中性利率估计将随着时间的推移而缓慢上升。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve faces dual policy risks of potential interest rate hikes or significant cuts in the next 12 months, with current market pricing reflecting only the baseline scenario [1][3] - The probability of an interest rate hike is assessed at around 15%, linked to Republican fiscal expansion and tariff transmission, with tariffs potentially driving inflation [1] - Current average tariffs on U.S. imports have reached the highest level since 1938 at 15%, indicating that price increases driven by tariffs have not fully materialized yet [1] Group 2 - The risk of interest rate cuts arises from a potential unexpected weakening in the labor market, which could lead to cuts exceeding the current Wall Street expectation of 100 basis points by the end of 2026 [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated that achieving a neutral interest rate would require "multiple rate cuts," but tariff policies may push inflation higher, creating a policy tension with calls for significant rate cuts [3] - The current federal funds rate has been maintained in the range of 4.25%-4.5% for over six months, with market pricing indicating a delay in the first rate cut to September and a reduction in the total cut magnitude to 50 basis points for the year [3]

应尽早实现日本国债持有量的正常化。 日本的实际利率显著为负。 增强市场吸收冲击的功能至关重要。 日本央行审议委员田村直树：中性利率至少在1%左右。 正密切关注企业在价格和工资方面的行为。 ...

日本央行审议委员田村直树：我相信日本的中性利率至少在1%。 ...

智通财经6月25日电，日本央行审议委员田村直树称，相信日本的中性利率至少在1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current data supports maintaining interest rates at a "neutral level," but the economy is not at neutral rates due to inflation forecasts [1] Group 1 - Existing data is strong enough to justify the stance on interest rates [1] - The Federal Reserve is not currently at a neutral interest rate [1] - Inflation predictions are the primary reason for not being at neutral rates [1]

智通财经APP获悉，美国克利夫兰联储主席哈马克周二表示，当前的利率水平"仅具适度限制性"，美联 储可能会在一段时间内维持借贷成本不变。 尽管在6月的会议上公布的最新利率预测显示，美联储官员中位数预期今年将有两次降息，但观点存在 明显分歧，有7位官员预计全年不会降息。 经济韧性增强 维持利率不变风险较低 哈马克认为，美国经济展现出较强韧性，因此当前维持利率不变所面临的风险相对较小。她指出，目前 尚未看到足以促使降息的经济疲软迹象，但也"密切关注这一可能性"。 在美联储上次议息会议之后，其他官员也陆续表达了对未来政策调整时间表的不同看法。联储理事克里 斯托弗·沃勒以及监管副主席米歇尔·鲍曼(两位均为特朗普任命的官员)表示，如果通胀继续受控，最早 在7月就可能考虑降息。而旧金山联储主席戴利则认为，秋季降息的可能性更高。 鲍威尔强调耐心等待更多数据 哈马克在伦敦一场会议的预备发言中指出，尽管近期通胀已有所缓解，美联储距离实现其2%的通胀目 标仍"有一段路要走"。她还强调，目前的通胀数据具有滞后性，未必能准确反映当前经济的最新变化， 包括近期油价上涨所带来的通胀预期风险。 截至发稿，美联储主席鲍威尔正在出席众议院金融服 ...

欧洲央行管委卡兹米尔：我是认为我们在中性利率方面达到目标的委员之一。 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) retains the policy space to initiate interest rate cuts within the next six months, as stated by François Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the ECB Governing Council [1] - Current market assessments indicate that inflation expectations remain moderate, which could justify further easing of monetary conditions in the next six monetary policy cycles if this trend continues [1] - The significant appreciation of the euro against major currencies has provided a hedging effect against rising international oil prices [1] Group 2 - Villeroy distinguishes between neutral interest rates and terminal rates, explaining that while they may converge under certain conditions, they serve different functions within the policy framework [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is identified as a new major uncertainty, with potential for dual-directional volatility [1] - The ECB is closely monitoring international oil price trends, but emphasizes that oil price fluctuations alone are insufficient to trigger policy responses unless they affect core inflation and inflation expectations [1] Group 3 - Regarding potential changes in US-EU trade relations, Villeroy assesses that a substantial escalation in trade tensions could exert downward pressure on eurozone economic growth through suppressed cross-border trade channels [2] - However, this impact is not expected to directly translate into upward inflationary pressures, consistent with previous ECB research on the transmission mechanism of imported inflation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) may consider interest rate cuts despite fluctuations in oil prices, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy direction [1] Group 1 - The ECB's interest rates have returned to neutral levels, suggesting a balanced approach to monetary policy [1] - Neutral interest rates are not considered the terminal rates, implying that further adjustments may be possible in the future [1] - Oil prices are not seen as a sufficient indicator for the ECB to make policy changes, highlighting the bank's broader economic considerations [1]