Market Overview - A-shares saw all three major indices rise, with the ChiNext Index showing strong performance, particularly in sectors like computing hardware and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] - The market is currently in a trend of steady upward movement, with trading volume stabilizing around 1.5 trillion yuan, indicating a shift from "large-cap stocks" to "thematic plays" [1][3] - Long-term capital inflow is accelerating, with ETF sizes steadily increasing and insurance funds continuing to flow in, providing significant support to the market [3] Economic Indicators - No significant negative macroeconomic factors are present before August, suggesting a new bullish window for the market [1] - The domestic economy is stabilizing, and potential liquidity release from interest rate cuts could further enhance market activity in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [3] Sector Performance - Strong performance was noted in electronic components, software development, communication equipment, and aerospace industries, while banking, insurance, precious metals, and real estate sectors lagged [3] - The "anti-involution" policy, if effectively implemented, could alleviate the challenges of "increasing revenue without increasing profit" for companies, potentially leading to a new phase of market growth [1] Policy Impact - The new regulations in the securities industry may lead to revenue growth for brokerage firms, while long-term insurance fund assessment policies could improve investment returns and valuations [3] - The potential for the Federal Reserve to signal interest rate cuts could significantly boost global risk appetite, benefiting the A-share market [3]

证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 18 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场全天低开高走，创业板指领涨 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3516.83 | 0.37% | 13.05 | | | 深证成指 | 10873.62 | 1.43% | 152.81 | | | 沪深 300 | 4034.49 | 0.68% | 27.29 | | | 创业板 | 2269.33 | 1.75% | 39.13 | | | 科创 50 | 1005.65 | 0.80% | 8.02 | | | 北证 50 | 1428.11 | 0.86% | 12.13 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国防军工 | 2.74% ...

Market Overview - A-shares rose on Thursday, with Nvidia-related stocks continuing strong performance; Hong Kong stocks showed mixed results with major indices fluctuating[3] - US retail sales in June exceeded expectations, contributing to a record high for the S&P 500 index[4] Currency and Commodity Trends - The US dollar index increased by 0.3% following strong retail sales data, while international gold prices fell by 0.4%[4] - International oil prices rose over 1% due to signs of tightening supply and increased US demand[4] Fixed Income Insights - US employment and consumer data remained robust, leading to stable movements in US Treasury bonds, with Asian bond markets showing a narrowing of spreads by 1-3 basis points[5] H-Shares Revaluation - The AH premium index has been declining since 2025, indicating a shift in mainland policies and a low-interest environment affecting H-shares[6] - Southbound capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks have significantly increased since the "9.24" market, with a 50% share of holdings in the H-index from southbound and mainland investors[6] Sector Recommendations - Investment focus is recommended on sectors with significant industry trends and high earnings visibility, particularly in AI software, innovative pharmaceuticals, non-bank financials, and banking[6] Key Economic Indicators - US retail sales rebounded with a 0.6% month-on-month increase, and initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level since mid-April[10] - The Federal Reserve is considering a 25 basis point rate cut, with mixed opinions among officials regarding the timing of such a move[31] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index showed slight declines of 0.08% and 0.56%, respectively, while the healthcare sector led gains with a 4.5% increase[12] - A-shares experienced a rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.37% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.43%[16] Lithium Industry Outlook - A production halt in Qinghai's lithium salt lake due to regulatory compliance issues may lead to a tightening supply, potentially pushing lithium prices out of the bottom range[19] Global Market Indices - European markets rebounded with the Stoxx 600 index rising by 0.62%, driven by optimism surrounding trade negotiations and positive corporate earnings[10] - The S&P Mexico IPC index increased by 0.38%, reflecting a mixed performance across sectors[10]

AI基金融通医疗保健行业混合A/B（161616）披露2025年二季报，第二季度基金利润1686.77万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.0388元。报告期内，基金净 值增长率为2.59%，截至二季度末，基金规模为6.6亿元。 该基金属于偏股混合型基金，长期投资于医药医疗股票。截至7月17日，单位净值为1.628元。基金经理是万民远和刘曦阳。 基金管理人在二季报中表示，当前配置关注重点仍然集中在两个方向：1、产业逻辑和性价比。当前市场整体水位抬升，产业趋势明确的创新药方向估值给 得都比较饱满，因此对个股的确定性、未来想象空间、横向比较的性价比要求都变得更高，尤其对 A 股标的而言，追求基本面确定性和股价位置都很重 要。2、后续有改善预期的方向。随着市场整体风险偏好的提升，医药行业内一些此前低关注度的方向，后续都有重估的可能。代表包括以 CXO/科研服务 上游为例的创新产业链、低位医疗耗材、医疗设备等等。此外，在当前的市场环境下，对一些此前交易过的、或者未来有潜在变化的主题方向，也可以更积 极乐观一些。 截至7月17日，融通医疗保健行业混合A/B近三个月复权单位净值增长率为8.32%，位于同类可比基金129/13 ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund for Health Industry Flexible Allocation Mixed A/B (000727) reported a profit of 179 million yuan in Q2 2025, with a net asset value growth rate of 8.97% for the period [2] Fund Performance - As of July 17, the fund's unit net value was 2.661 yuan, with a recent three-month growth rate of 15.00%, ranking 108 out of 138 comparable funds [3] - The fund's six-month growth rate was 16.45%, ranking 117 out of 138, and the one-year growth rate was 19.86%, ranking 107 out of 133 [3] - Over the past three years, the fund's growth rate was -9.89%, ranking 64 out of 106 [3] Risk and Return Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years was 0.1159, ranking 48 out of 105 comparable funds [8] - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 45.79%, with the highest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q1 2024 at 26.05% [11] Investment Strategy - The fund focuses on selecting sectors and stocks with good growth potential and relatively low valuations, aligning with the structural upgrades in China's pharmaceutical industry and the recovery of medical demand [2] - Key investment areas include innovation-driven industry upgrades, import substitution, and recovery in hospital medical services, with a focus on innovative drugs, medical devices, and low price-to-book (PB) assets [2] Fund Composition - As of June 30, the fund maintained an average stock position of 92.67% over the past three years, with a peak of 94.13% at the end of Q1 2024 [14] - The fund's total assets reached 2.074 billion yuan as of the end of Q2 2025 [15] - The top ten holdings include Yixin Hall, Aibo Medical, Sanyou Medical, Jianzhijia, Kaili Medical, Sunshine Nuohuo, Dongfang Biological, Puri Eye Hospital, Meihao Medical, and Meinian Health [18]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to maintain a slow upward trend despite short-term fluctuations, with technology stocks playing a significant role in the rebound [1][2]. Market Outlook - The market is likely in a phase of consolidation before a breakout, with two potential paths: continuing the upward trend or consolidating before challenging previous highs [2]. - Three conditions are necessary for a direct challenge to the previous high of 3674 points: implementation of fiscal stimulus policies, continued global environment easing, and sustained increase in trading volume [2]. Sector Highlights - The A-share market in July is anticipated to be driven by event-based themes, with a high likelihood of sector rotation [3]. - Key sectors to watch include: 1. Consumer expansion and domestic demand, with a focus on dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [3]. 2. Robotics, with a shift from humanoid to quadruped and functional robots, presenting opportunities in sensors and controllers [3]. 3. Semiconductor localization, focusing on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [3]. 4. Military industry, with expectations of order recovery and signs of bottoming out in Q1 reports [3]. 5. Innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to see a fundamental turning point in 2025 after a period of adjustment [3]. Market Review - The A-share market showed signs of stabilization and resumed an upward trend, with the ChiNext index rising over 1.7% [4]. - More than 3500 stocks rose, indicating a positive earning effect, with leading sectors including defense, telecommunications, electronics, and pharmaceuticals [4].

截至7月17日，鹏华养老产业股票近三个月复权单位净值增长率为23.34%，位于同类可比基金12/167；近半年复权单位净值增长率为38.93%，位于同类可比 基金2/167；近一年复权单位净值增长率为35.39%，位于同类可比基金30/166；近三年复权单位净值增长率为-14.91%，位于同类可比基金100/159。 通过所选区间该基金净值增长率分位图，可以观察该基金与同类基金业绩比较情况。图为坐标原点到区间内某时点的净值增长率在同类基金中的分位数。 AI基金鹏华养老产业股票（000854）披露2025年二季报，第二季度基金利润4195.51万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.2136元。报告期内，基金净值增长 率为9.71%，截至二季度末，基金规模为4.64亿元。 该基金属于标准股票型基金。截至7月17日，单位净值为2.716元。基金经理是金笑非，目前管理6只基金近一年均为正收益。其中，截至7月17日，鹏华医药 科技股票A近一年复权单位净值增长率最高，达88.79%；鹏华养老产业股票最低，为35.39%。 基金管理人在二季报中表示，我们从 2022 年底翻多创新药后，一直重仓此方向，中间波动较多，但整体上仓位 ...

截至7月17日，泓德医疗创新混合发起式A近三个月复权单位净值增长率为40.08%，位于同类可比基金18/138；近半年复权单位净值增长率为51.44%，位于 同类可比基金47/138；近一年复权单位净值增长率为64.80%，位于同类可比基金21/133。 AI基金泓德医疗创新混合发起式A（012481）披露2025年二季报，第二季度基金利润113.95万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.0993元。报告期内，基金净 值增长率为14.39%，截至二季度末，基金规模为1047.48万元。 该基金属于偏股混合型基金，长期投资于医药医疗股票。截至7月17日，单位净值为0.986元。基金经理是操昭煦。 基金管理人在二季报中表示，本组合在今年一二季度持续增加创新药行业的配置，到本报告期末大部分仓位都配置在这个方向，一小部分仓位配置在创新药 产业链和个别互联网医疗公司。本组合对医药行业的投资将秉持以价值发现为导向，争取让组合在"反脆弱"和获取较好收益之间取得最佳平衡。 通过所选区间该基金净值增长率分位图，可以观察该基金与同类基金业绩比较情况。图为坐标原点到区间内某时点的净值增长率在同类基金中的分位数。 截至7月17日，基金成 ...

AI基金国投瑞银医疗保健混合A（000523）披露2025年二季报，第二季度基金利润780.14万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.0565元。报告期内，基金净值 增长率为6.53%，截至二季度末，基金规模为1.21亿元。 该基金属于灵活配置型基金，长期投资于医药医疗股票。截至7月17日，单位净值为1.004元。基金经理是刘泽序，目前管理2只基金近一年均为正收益。其 中，截至7月17日，国投瑞银创新医疗混合A近一年复权单位净值增长率最高，达41.33%；国投瑞银医疗保健混合A最低，为31.01%。 基金管理人在二季报中表示，投资方向上，我们继续加仓了创新药板块，看重创新药企业的估值和确定性。选股方向上，我们主要关注以下企业：1）已经 落地 BD、等待临床兑现的企业；2）BD 概率较高的企业；3）估值中对 BD 预期不高的企业。同时，非创新药板块我们认为依然值得重视，并保持了一定 仓位的布局，如科研服务、CXO、医疗器械等。 截至7月17日，国投瑞银医疗保健混合A近三个月复权单位净值增长率为15.57%，位于同类可比基金106/138；近半年复权单位净值增长率为28.54%，位于同 类可比基金88/138；近一年 ...

AI基金国投瑞银创新医疗混合A（005520）披露2025年二季报，第二季度基金利润461.85万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.0779元。报告期内，基金净值 增长率为9.05%，截至二季度末，基金规模为5513.18万元。 该基金属于灵活配置型基金，长期投资于医药医疗股票。截至7月17日，单位净值为1.08元。基金经理是刘泽序，目前管理2只基金近一年均为正收益。其 中，截至7月17日，国投瑞银创新医疗混合A近一年复权单位净值增长率最高，达41.33%；国投瑞银医疗保健混合A最低，为31.01%。 基金管理人在二季报中表示，投资方向上，我们继续加仓了创新药板块，尤其是基本面和估值匹配度较高的港股创新药，并看重创新药企业的估值和确定 性。选股方向上，我们主要关注以下企业：已经落地BD、等待临床兑现的企业；BD概率较高的企业；估值中对BD预期不高的企业。同时，非创新药板块 我们认为依然值得重视，并保持了一定仓位的布局，如科研服务、CXO、医疗器械等。 截至7月17日，国投瑞银创新医疗混合A近三个月复权单位净值增长率为25.54%，位于同类可比基金67/138；近半年复权单位净值增长率为43.45%，位于同 类可 ...