Group 1 - The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated that officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) may visit Iran in the next two weeks to discuss technical issues and explore continued cooperation [1] - Iran will continue to advance its nuclear program, including uranium enrichment, and is awaiting a report from the IAEA regarding the status of its nuclear facilities [1] - The Iranian parliament approved a bill on June 25 to suspend cooperation with the IAEA, which prohibits IAEA observers from entering Iran for inspections unless certain conditions are met [1] Group 2 - The 2015 nuclear agreement required Iran to limit its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, with the UN Security Council adopting Resolution 2231 to endorse the agreement [2] - The "snapback" mechanism included in Resolution 2231 allows signatory countries to respond to Iran's violations, and this mechanism is effective until October 18 of this year [2] - Western countries have threatened to invoke the "snapback" mechanism to compel Iran to comply with the nuclear agreement, including restoring full cooperation with the IAEA and limiting the scale of nuclear development [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (white star, suggesting short - term long/short trends are in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, advisable to wait and see) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: No specific rating given [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but poor operability on the market) [1] Core Viewpoints - The oil market has continued the inventory - building trend since the peak season in Q3, with a 0.6% reduction in crude oil inventory and a 1.7% increase in refined oil inventory. There is always a supply - demand surplus pressure under the OPEC+ production - increase path. Oil prices are mainly under oscillating pressure, but geopolitical factors may bring support at the end of August and early September [1]. - The fuel oil futures showed strong performance among oil products today. The high - low sulfur spread was under pressure again, and the rebound strength of FU cracking needs further observation. The LU's unilateral trend follows crude oil, but with a smaller fluctuation range and under pressure on cracking [2]. - The asphalt 09 contract rebounded after hitting the bottom during the day, with low inventory supporting the price, but the upside space is limited before the actual improvement in demand [2]. - The overseas market decline has led to a weakening of the domestic LPG market. Domestic chemical demand is strong in the short term, and domestic gas is expected to stabilize under the situation of weak supply and demand. The spot market is loose, and the futures market is mainly weak [3]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, with the SC09 contract up 1.71% during the day. The oil market has continued the inventory - building trend since Q3, with a 0.6% reduction in crude oil inventory and a 1.7% increase in refined oil inventory. The US government may allow Chevron to operate in Venezuela, which may lead to a recovery of about 200,000 barrels per day in Venezuelan crude oil exports. Before the final implementation of trade agreements, there are still bearish risks related to trade wars. Oil prices are mainly under oscillating pressure, but geopolitical factors may bring support at the end of August and early September [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, fuel - related futures showed strong performance among oil products, with FU leading the gains. The high - low sulfur spread was under pressure again after two consecutive days of rebound, and the FU cracking rebounded slightly from a low level. The Singapore diesel cracking dropped slightly from a high level. The LU's unilateral trend follows crude oil, but with a smaller fluctuation range and under pressure on cracking [2] Asphalt - The 09 contract rebounded after hitting the bottom at 3593 yuan/ton during the day, with a small increase at the close but a relatively weak increase among oil products. Chevron is allowed to continue operating in Venezuela, which may increase Venezuelan oil production. The August refinery production plan decreased significantly compared with July. Affected by the widespread rainfall, demand recovery was slower than expected. The inventory of refineries decreased, and the social inventory remained flat, with the overall commercial inventory decreasing month - on - month. Low inventory supports the price, but the upside space is limited before the actual improvement in demand [2] LPG - The overseas market decline has led to a weakening of the domestic LPG market. The increase in Middle East sales and high - level inventory accumulation in North America continue to suppress the market. Domestic PDH has resumed production rapidly, with good short - term chemical demand. The refinery's external supply volume has decreased slightly, and domestic gas is expected to stabilize under the situation of weak supply and demand. The spot market is loose, strengthening the delivery discount pressure, and the futures market is mainly weak [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Iranian Foreign Ministry asserts that the UK, France, and Germany lack the authority to initiate the "snapback sanctions" mechanism and emphasizes that the current negotiations aim to correct the European countries' stance on Iran's nuclear program [1] Group 1 - The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Ismail Baghaei, stated that the three European countries do not have the qualifications or rights to activate the "snapback sanctions" mechanism [1] - Iran considers discussions on extending UN Resolution 2231 to be meaningless and unfounded [1] - The current round of negotiations is seen as an opportunity to rectify the non-constructive actions of the UK, France, and Germany, which have harmed Europe's credibility and negotiating position [1]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research Group: Shipping Research Team 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is stabilizing, with the main contract rising and then falling, and the near - month contract continuing to repair the basis. If there is a callback today, consider adding positions [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [5]. - The short - term market may mainly rebound, and different strategies are proposed for different contracts [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Indexes - On July 21, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% [3]. - The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) on July 18: the composite index was 1147.96 points, down 5.75%; the European route was 1440.25 points, up 0.35%; the US West route was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% [3]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) on July 21: the composite index was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points; the European line price was 2079 USD/TEU, down 1.00%; the US West route was 2142 USD/FEU, down 2.4% [3]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) on July 18: the composite index was 1303.54 points, down 0.8%; the European route was 1803.42 points, up 4.5%; the US West route was 941.65 points, down 8.4% [3] 3.2 Economic Data - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, service PMI was 50 (2 - month high), and composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [3]. - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May [3]. - US June Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52, service PMI was 53.1 (2 - month low), and composite PMI was 52.8 (2 - month low) [3] 3.3 Market Situation - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. Some shipping companies announced price increases. The tariff negotiation date was postponed to August 1. The spot market price range was set, with small price increases to test the market, and the market rebounded slightly [5]. - On July 21, the main contract 2510 closed at 1592.7, down 2.35%, with a trading volume of 69,300 lots and an open interest of 51,200 lots, a decrease of 186 lots from the previous day [5]. 3.4 Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300). If it continues to decline today, consider adding positions. Consider shorting the EC2512 contract above 1950 [6]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation instability, with a positive spread structure and large fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the market to stabilize after a decline, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. 3.5 Policy Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [6]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6] 3.6 Geopolitical News - A new round of Gaza cease - fire negotiations in Doha is expected to reach an agreement within two weeks, and all parties are cautiously optimistic [7]. - Iran's Foreign Minister Alaqqi wrote to the UN Security Council and the Secretary - General regarding the UK, France, and Germany's threat to activate "rapid - restoration sanctions", stating that their actions are invalid [7]

Core Points - The European countries (UK, France, Germany) and the EU are pressuring Iran to return to nuclear negotiations, threatening to activate the "snapback" sanctions process if no substantial progress is made by the end of summer [1][3] - The recent military actions by Israel and the US against Iranian nuclear facilities have escalated tensions and disrupted the fragile balance of the nuclear talks, leading to a significant decline in trust [3][4] - The 2015 nuclear agreement, which aimed to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, has been severely undermined by the US's hardline stance and increasing sanctions [3][4] - The EU's urgency to invoke the "snapback" sanctions is influenced by the upcoming rotation of the UN Security Council presidency to Russia, which may complicate the sanctions restoration process [3][4] - Diplomatic efforts are hindered by the lack of transparency in Iran's nuclear program and the absence of trust between the parties involved, particularly due to the military actions taken by the US and Israel [4][6] - The military actions have provoked Iran, leading to retaliatory strikes against US military bases, further deteriorating the regional security situation [6] - The Western approach, characterized by military pressure, is seen as counterproductive and may exacerbate instability in the Middle East rather than resolve the nuclear issue [6][7] - The division and desperation within the Western camp regarding the nuclear negotiations are evident, as they attempt to regain control over the situation through threats [7][9] - The ongoing nuclear crisis is not merely a technical issue but a focal point of geopolitical competition among global powers, necessitating a shift from coercive tactics to constructive dialogue [9]

Group 1 - The foreign ministers of the UK, France, and Germany, along with the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs, urged Iran to return to nuclear negotiations, warning that if no "substantial progress" is made by the end of summer, all sanctions against Iran will be reinstated [1][3] - This communication marks the first contact between European foreign ministers and Iran following large-scale airstrikes by Israel and the US against Iran in mid-June [1] - The 2015 nuclear agreement, which involved Iran and six world powers, required Iran to limit its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, with the UN Security Council adopting Resolution 2231 to endorse the agreement [1] Group 2 - The UN Security Council Resolution 2231 is set to expire in October 2023, and the European nations aim to complete the "snapback" sanctions process before Russia assumes the presidency of the Security Council [3] - US and European officials view the "snapback" clause as a negotiation tool to pressure Iran, while Iran claims that reinstating sanctions lacks legal basis and threatens to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty [3][4] - Both Iran and the US have expressed willingness to resume negotiations, but Iran demands assurances that it will not face further attacks during the talks [4]

Core Points - The U.S. and its allies have set the end of August as the final deadline for reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran [1] - If an agreement is not reached by the deadline, the three European powers plan to activate a "snapback" mechanism to automatically reinstate all sanctions lifted under the 2015 Iran deal [1] - The activation of the "snapback" mechanism requires a 30-day process, and Europe aims to complete this before Russia assumes the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council in October [1]

据央视新闻，法国外交部长巴罗表示，若未达成实质性核协议，法英德三国最迟将于8月底启动联合国 对伊朗"快速恢复制裁"机制。近期，英国、法国、德国威胁称将启动针对伊朗的"快速恢复制裁"机制。 所谓"快速恢复制裁"机制，是指伊核协议参与方如果认定伊朗违反协议内容，可快速恢复此前联合国对 伊朗实施的制裁。对此，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃表示，在美国单方面退出伊核协议后，欧洲三国也严 重违反了伊核协议承诺，因此没有资格采取相关行动。 ...

Group 1 - Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ismail Baghaei stated that there is currently no clear timeline for negotiations with the United States regarding the nuclear program [1] - The indirect talks between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Middle East envoy Steven Weintraub began on April 12, but after five rounds, no agreement has been reached [1] - Following an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 13, the negotiations mediated by Oman have stalled, with subsequent military actions between Israel and Iran [1] Group 2 - Baghaei emphasized that Iran takes diplomatic matters and the negotiation process seriously, expressing that Iran participates in negotiations with sincerity despite military aggression from Israel and the US [1] - In response to European countries threatening to activate the "snapback sanctions" mechanism, Baghaei argued that such threats lack legal and political basis, and Iran will respond at an appropriate time [2] - Iran continues to maintain contact with the UK, France, and Germany, but no specific date for the next meeting has been provided [2]

➢ 汽油价差收窄，烯烃价差扩大。截至 6 月 27 日，1）炼油：NYMEX 汽油和 取暖油期货结算价和 WTI 期货结算价差分别为 21.39/28.60 美元/桶，周环比变 化-7.79%/-8.67%。2）化工：乙烯/丙烯/甲苯和石脑油价差为 281/231/160 美 元/吨，较上周变化+50.10%/+97.03%/+86.04%；FDY/POY/DTY 价差为 1544/1344/2519 元/吨，较上周变化+14.55%/+18.12%/+6.61%。 ➢ 投资建议：我们推荐以下两条主线：1）油价有底，石油企业业绩确定性高， 叠加高分红特点，估值有望提升，建议关注抗风险能力强且资源量优势强的中国 石油、产量持续增长且桶油成本低的中国海油、高分红一体化公司中国石化；2） 国内鼓励油气增储上产，建议关注产量处于成长期的中曼石油、新天然气。 石化周报 以伊官宣停火，原油暂时回归基本面定价 2025 年 06 月 29 日 ➢ 以伊官宣停火，原油暂时回归基本面定价。6 月 23 日，特朗普在社交媒体 平台上表示，以色列和伊朗将于 24 日 0 时起停火，6 月 24 日，伊朗最高国家安 全委员会声明，宣 ...