Group 1 - Chengdu government has issued policies to enhance the city's power supply capacity, focusing on eight areas including accelerating power grid construction and promoting distributed solar and new energy storage projects [1] - Guohai Securities anticipates a resurgence in photovoltaic supply-side reform, with potential restrictions on silicon material output and encouragement of high-efficiency battery technology to alleviate industry overcapacity [1] - The global commercial storage market is expected to grow, with distributed storage gaining traction due to decreasing costs and increasing demand for backup power [1] Group 2 - Fangzheng Securities notes that thermal power companies may experience a turnaround due to declining coal prices, particularly those located in regions with tight power supply and lower electricity price drops [2] - Hydropower generation is expected to improve steadily, with high dividend yields becoming more attractive as hydropower companies are less affected by market fluctuations [2] - Nuclear power generation has increased, and while the average on-grid price may decline due to market trading and long-term contract price reductions, the increase in generation volume is expected to offset price impacts [2]

期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportType] 工业硅/多晶硅早报 走势评级： 工业硅：弱势震荡 多晶硅：震荡偏强 李艳婷—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F03091846 投资咨询证号：Z0020513 联系电话：0571-28132578 邮箱：liyanting@cindasc.com 徐浩然—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F03120971 联系电话：0571-28132578 邮箱：xuhaoran@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 下游需求预期走弱，多晶硅再度下调 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 4 月 16 日 报告内容摘要: ◆相关咨询：4 月 11 日，北碚西山坪光伏项目光伏组件采购中标候选人公 布，第一中标候选人为湖南红太阳新能源科技有限公司，投标报价 7920 万 元，单价 0.66 元/W；第二中标候选人为环晟光伏(江苏)有限公司，投标报 价 8400 万元，单价 0.7 元/W。本次组件招标范围为 120MWp 单晶硅双面 双玻太阳能光伏 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Weak and volatile [1] - Polysilicon: Volatile and bullish [1] Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of industrial silicon have both positive and negative news, and it remains in a bottom - oscillating state. The price of industrial silicon has hit a new low, and it is currently in a stage of long - short game. The price of polysilicon is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and it is in a state of bullish oscillation [1][2][3][4] - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see; for polysilicon, it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Supply Side - The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 silicon is 10,100 - 10,200 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous trading day. In February, industrial silicon production decreased to 289,500 tons, a reduction of 10,000 tons from January. The production in Sichuan and Yunnan has dropped to historical lows, with Sichuan's production at only 3,000 tons. Some production capacities in the northwest region have resumed production recently, and the supply pressure of industrial silicon has become prominent again. The production cost in the southwest region has reached the annual high due to the high electricity cost during the dry season, but the cost support for silicon prices is limited [2] - The inventory pressure is large. This week's inventory decreased by 0.5 tons compared with last week, and the current social inventory is reported at 594,000 tons [2] Downstream Demand Side - In the polysilicon sector, production continued to decline in February, reaching about 90,000 tons. With the expectation of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic industry, polysilicon production has been continuously decreasing. However, with better downstream production scheduling recently, the probability of large - scale production cuts is small, and the demand for industrial silicon has stabilized marginally [2] - In the organic silicon DMC sector, some manufacturers plan to start the production - cut mode, and the production is expected to continue to decline, leading to a decrease in the demand for industrial silicon [2] - In the alloy silicon sector, the price has been boosted, but the consumption is small and cannot support the market, so the demand for industrial silicon remains stable [2] Transaction Logic - Industrial silicon production is still at a high level. The production of downstream polysilicon has stabilized, and the consumption of industrial silicon has also stabilized. The consumption of industrial silicon by organic silicon has weakened, and the consumption by silicon - aluminum alloy has remained stable. High inventory suppresses the price of industrial silicon. Although the photovoltaic industry has an improvement expectation, it is currently in a long - short game stage [4] Polysilicon Supply Side - The spot price of polysilicon remains stable. The production of polysilicon in February decreased to 90,000 tons, which strongly supports the price. Under the premise of industry self - discipline, each polysilicon factory produces according to the quota, and the production will not fluctuate significantly [3] Downstream Demand Side - The production of downstream silicon wafers shows signs of stabilization and recovery, and the price has increased slightly. The inventory of silicon wafers is in the destocking cycle, and the inventory is being removed quickly, which supports the price. The production scheduling of downstream battery cells and components in April is good, which also supports the polysilicon market [3] Transaction Logic - The production of polysilicon has stabilized at the bottom, the downstream demand has an improvement expectation, and the inventory is still in the destocking cycle. In the short term, there is insufficient driving force for polysilicon to rise, and it shows a bullish oscillation [4]

产品价格下跌下4季度业绩展韧性，经营现金流创新高 近期出台的分布式光伏新政和新能源电价新政提升了新建项目收益率不确定性，因此光伏项目尤其是分 布式有较大动力在2025年5月1日和6月1日的新老划断时点前抢装并网，供给大幅收缩和短期需求爆发， 推动3月2.0mm玻璃价格大涨1.75元/平或15%，卓创资讯预计4月将继续上涨0.5元/平或4%。 公司2024年盈利10.07亿元(人民币，下同)，同比降64%，接近业绩预告中值，其中4季度亏损2.89亿元， 环比扩42%，全年经营活动现金流59.1亿元，同比大增2倍，其中4季度达29.0亿元，创单季新高。据卓 创资讯，4季度内地2.0mm光伏玻璃均价环比降13%，但公司毛利率环比仅降3.1个百分点至2.9%，明显 好于该行预期，或因成本控制较好及行业产能减产，导致高毛利率的海外产能收入占比提升。 该行测算目前公司毛利率已回升至约15%，4月有望接近20%。尽管盈利大幅回升，3月以来行业在产产 能仅增加2950吨，在行业自律下点火仍较为克制，即使4月点火加速，3个月的爬坡期也将导致短期供给 刚性，因此该行预计本轮涨价有望持续较长时间。 4季度光伏玻璃产量环比下降，但销 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.12%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index rose by 0.36% and 1.20% respectively. The total market turnover was 16,645 billion, a decrease of 2,413 billion from the previous day [2][12]. Industry Highlights - Solid-state batteries continued to surge, with expectations for small-scale production by 2027 and large-scale production by 2030. Leading battery manufacturers and vehicle manufacturers are aligning their production schedules accordingly [2][10]. - The photovoltaic industry saw price adjustments from leading component manufacturers, with price increases ranging from 0.01 to 0.03 yuan/W, and auxiliary materials like glass and films experiencing price hikes of 5% to 15% [2][10]. - The nuclear fusion sector gained attention, with companies like China Nuclear Engineering announcing significant investments in fusion energy projects, aiming for commercial operation around 2045 [3][10]. Financial Insights - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have adjusted their forecasts for the Chinese yuan, reflecting a more stable outlook despite ongoing tariff risks. Goldman Sachs revised its three-month forecast for the yuan to 7.3 from 7.4 [6][10]. - The net outflow of funds from the electronic sector was significant, with major stocks like ZTE Corporation leading the outflow. Conversely, sectors such as electric equipment and non-ferrous metals saw net inflows [12][21]. Real Estate Trends - In February, the second-hand housing market in major cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai experienced significant year-on-year increases in transaction volumes, with Beijing's net signing volume up by 87.6% [8][10]. Investment Opportunities - The low-altitude economy is gaining traction, with a recent event in Guizhou signing 20 projects worth 10.55 billion, indicating potential growth in this sector [9][10]. - The robotics industry is set for growth, with a government action plan aiming for breakthroughs in key components and technologies by 2027, targeting the establishment of over 100 billion yuan enterprises [7][10].