Core Insights - In April 2025, personal income in the U.S. increased by $210.1 billion, representing a month-over-month growth of 0.8% [1][4] - Disposable personal income (DPI) also rose by $189.4 billion, reflecting a 0.8% increase, while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) saw a smaller increase of $47.8 billion, or 0.2% [1][4] - The total personal expenditures, which include PCE, personal interest payments, and current transfer payments, increased by $48.6 billion in April [1] Personal Savings and Rates - Personal savings in April amounted to $1.12 trillion, with a personal savings rate of 4.9%, indicating the percentage of DPI that is saved [3] - The increase in personal income was primarily driven by government social welfare and wage increases [3][7] Consumer Spending Trends - Service expenditures rose by $55.8 billion, partially offsetting a $8 billion decrease in goods spending [3] - The PCE price index increased by 0.1% in April, with the core PCE price index also rising by 0.1% [7] - Year-over-year, the PCE price index increased by 2.1%, while the core PCE price index rose by 2.5% [7] Economic Outlook - Economists suggest that aggressive trade policies by the U.S. government may significantly hinder economic growth and elevate inflation [7] - Market participants anticipate that the Federal Reserve will lower the target interest rate for short-term borrowing in September, with another potential cut in December [7]

智通财经5月29日电，美联储官员GOOLSBEE表示，如果没有关税的话，利率有可能下调。 ...

菲律宾央行行长：考虑再降两次利率，但降息不一定是连续的。 ...

Group 1: Hot News - China's latest LPR has been released, with the 1-year LPR dropping to 3% and the 5-year and above LPR dropping to 3.5%, both down 10 basis points, the first cut since October last year. State-owned banks and some joint-stock banks have also cut RMB deposit rates, with the 1-year deposit rate falling below 1% for the first time [3] - In April, the central general public budget revenue increased by 1.6% year-on-year, and the national tax revenue increased by 1.9% year-on-year, both achieving positive monthly growth for the first time this year. From January to April, the national general public budget expenditure increased by 4.6% year-on-year, completing 31.5% of the budget, with the fastest expenditure progress since 2020 [3] - China's gold imports in April reached 127.5 metric tons, a new high in 11 months, a 73% increase from the previous month. Platinum imports also reached a one-year high, with 11.5 tons imported in April [3] - Summer grain procurement is ready across the country, and the peak procurement season is about to begin. It is expected that the procurement volume of new-season summer grain this year will reach about 200 billion catties [4] - As of May 19, the average transaction price of 43% protein soybean meal at major domestic oil mills dropped to 2,970 yuan per ton, a decrease of nearly 900 yuan per ton from the high in late April, reaching the lowest level since mid-January. The customs clearance of imported soybeans in China has accelerated, and the supply will continue to increase [4] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on: urea, plastic, lithium carbonate, soybean meal, PVC [5] - Night trading performance: Non-metallic building materials rose 2.71%, precious metals rose 29.95%, oilseeds and oils rose 12.03%, soft commodities rose 2.51%, non-ferrous metals rose 19.03%, coal, coke, and steel ore rose 13.44%, energy rose 2.67%, chemicals rose 13.28%, grains rose 1.65%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.72% [5] Group 3: Sector Positions - The figure shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [6] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38% daily, 3.09% monthly, and 0.86% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.49% daily, 7.06% monthly, and 18.05% annually [7] - Fixed income: The 10-year Treasury bond futures rose 0.03% daily, -0.15% monthly, and -0.08% annually [7] - Commodities: The CRB Commodity Index rose 0.67% daily, 3.26% monthly, and 0.49% annually; London spot gold rose 1.86% daily, 0.03% monthly, and 25.35% annually [7] - Others: The US Dollar Index fell -0.35% daily, 0.38% monthly, and -7.80% annually; the CBOE Volatility Index remained unchanged daily, -26.56% monthly, and 4.55% annually [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 20, 2025, the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates were both cut by 10 basis points, in line with market expectations. A new round of deposit rate cuts may drive more funds into the stock market, bond market, and wealth management products, bringing new liquidity to the capital market. The decline in LPR is expected to boost residents' housing consumption and is more significant for the stock market from the perspective of investment yield and wealth effect [7]. - The precious metals sector rebounded significantly last night, with gold rising nearly 2%. Due to factors such as the setbacks in the Russia - Ukraine negotiations, the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's, and the increase in China's gold imports in April, gold still has long - term allocation value [8][9]. - Since May, the stock index futures market has continued to rise after filling the gap caused by reciprocal tariffs. The upward movement is mainly driven by policy easing and lower interest rates, but the macro - economic fundamentals are complex, and short - term fluctuations may occur [10][11]. - The industrial silicon market has a weak fundamental situation. With the approaching of the rainy season in Southwest China and the expected resumption of production in Northwest China, supply may increase, while demand remains weak. It is recommended to short at high prices [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Last night, the precious metals sector rebounded strongly, with gold rising nearly 2%. The reasons for the rebound include the setbacks in the Russia - Ukraine negotiations, the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's, and the increase in China's gold imports in April. Gold still has long - term allocation value [8][9]. - Gold trend strength is 1, and silver trend strength is 1 [22]. Stock Index Futures - Since May, the market has continued to rise after filling the gap caused by reciprocal tariffs. The upward movement is driven by policy easing and lower interest rates. However, the macro - economic fundamentals are complex, and short - term fluctuations may occur. Overall, the market is expected to be bullish in the medium - term, but short - term disturbances from the real economy should be noted [10][11]. Industrial Silicon - The fundamental situation is weak. Supply is expected to increase as silicon plants in Southwest and Northwest China may resume production, while demand remains weak, mainly for rigid replenishment. It is recommended to short at high prices [12]. - Industrial silicon trend strength is - 1 [50]. Copper - Copper inventory is continuously decreasing, which supports the price. Macro - news includes Japan's consideration of accepting US tariff cuts and the progress of the India - US trade agreement. Micro - news includes the cooperation between Codelco and Rio Tinto and the clearance of scrap copper in the US. China's refined copper production in April 2025 increased year - on - year [24][26]. - Copper trend strength is 1 [26]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, and alumina is expected to trade in a range. An alumina plant in Shanxi postponed its maintenance, and China's alumina exports in April 2025 increased year - on - year while imports decreased [27][29]. - Aluminum trend strength is 0, and alumina trend strength is 0 [29]. Zinc - Zinc is in a range - adjustment phase. High - profile news includes the prediction of the EU - US negotiation by Goldman Sachs and the progress of the India - US and Japan - US trade agreements [30][31]. - Zinc trend strength is 0 [31]. Lead - Lead is expected to trade in a range. Similar to zinc, high - profile news includes international trade - related news [33]. - Lead trend strength is 0 [33]. Tin - Tin is in a narrow - range oscillation. Macro and industry news includes multiple international events such as the potential attack on Iran's nuclear facilities by Israel [35][37]. - Tin trend strength is - 1 [38]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - For nickel, the contradiction in nickel ore provides support, but the economic viability of conversion may limit the upside potential. For stainless steel, the cost bottom is clear, but there is a lack of substantial driving force for upward movement. Indonesia has adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel products, and there are also news about production and trade in the nickel industry [39][40][43]. - Nickel trend strength is 0, and stainless steel trend strength is 0 [44]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is in a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the trading situation at the mine end. The prices of lithium carbonate and related raw materials are declining, and China's imports of lithium - related products in April 2025 showed different trends [45][47]. - Lithium carbonate trend strength is - 1 [47]. Iron Ore - Short - term positive factors have been realized, and the driving force for price increases is slowing down. The LPR rate cut on May 20 is the latest macro - news [51][52]. - Iron ore trend strength is - 1 [52]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a low - level oscillation. News includes South Korea's anti - dumping tax on stainless steel plates and China's steel production data in April 2025 [54][57]. - Rebar trend strength is 0, and hot - rolled coil trend strength is 0 [57][58]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the resonance of the black - metal sector, and silicomanganese is expected to fluctuate weakly as Australian manganese ore shipments resume. There is a lot of news about the spot prices, production, and trade of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [59][62]. - Ferrosilicon trend strength is 0, and silicomanganese trend strength is 0 [63]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both coke and coking coal are in a bottom - oscillation phase. There is information about their spot prices, basis, and position changes [64][66]. - Coke trend strength is 0, and coking coal trend strength is 0 [67]. Steam Coal - Steam coal is expected to oscillate weakly as coal mine inventories increase. There is information about its spot prices and position changes [68][69]. - Steam coal trend strength is 0 [70]. Logs - Logs are in a weak oscillation. No specific analysis details are provided [71].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent reduction in LPR (Loan Prime Rate) and corresponding adjustments in mortgage and deposit rates are expected to lower borrowing costs, stimulate housing consumption, and support bank net interest margins [1][3][4] Group 2 - As of May 20, mortgage rates in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai have been reduced by 10 basis points, with the first mortgage rate now at 3.05% and second mortgage rates varying based on location [1][2] - The reduction in mortgage rates is projected to save approximately 54 yuan per month for a 1 million yuan loan over 30 years, totaling nearly 20,000 yuan in savings [1][2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has lowered the 1-year LPR to 3.0% and the 5-year LPR to 3.5%, both down by 10 basis points, which is expected to further lower borrowing costs [2][3] Group 3 - The recent adjustments in deposit rates by major banks include a reduction of up to 25 basis points for various term deposits, with the new rates for three-month to five-year deposits ranging from 0.65% to 1.30% [4][5] - The average reduction in deposit rates is greater than that of the LPR, which is seen as a measure to protect bank net interest margins, with an estimated positive impact of 7 basis points on banks' margins [4][5] - The net interest margin for commercial banks has been under pressure, declining from 1.52% in Q4 of the previous year to 1.43% in Q1 of this year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms by 10 basis points, indicating a transmission of policy rate adjustments to loan market rates [1][3][4]. Group 1: LPR Adjustments - The 1-year LPR is now 3.0% and the 5-year LPR is 3.5%, both down by 10 basis points from the previous period [1][3]. - Analysts believe there is still room for further LPR reductions to enhance the quality and accuracy of LPR quotes [5][6]. - The recent LPR adjustments align with a broader monetary policy shift aimed at reducing financing costs for businesses and households [4][6]. Group 2: Deposit Rate Cuts - A new round of deposit rate cuts has been initiated, with major banks reducing rates for various terms, including a 15 basis point cut for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year deposits, and a 25 basis point cut for 3-year and 5-year deposits [1][7]. - The latest adjustments mark the seventh round of deposit rate cuts since the market-oriented adjustment mechanism was established in April 2022 [7][9]. - The reduction in deposit rates is expected to increase the difficulty for banks in attracting deposits, while simultaneously directing more funds into low-risk asset management products [2][8]. Group 3: Market Implications - The decline in deposit rates may lead to a further drop in broad interest rates, including government bond yields, and could encourage a "deposit migration" trend as investors seek higher returns [2][8]. - The anticipated increase in the scale of wealth management products could surpass 33 trillion yuan this year due to the lower deposit rates [2][8]. - The adjustments are part of a broader strategy to stabilize the economy amid external pressures and to stimulate domestic demand [4][6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in deposit rates by major Chinese banks marks the beginning of a new era where the one-year fixed deposit rate has fallen below 1%, signaling a significant shift in monetary policy aimed at stimulating economic growth [1][2][4]. Group 1: Impact on the Banking Sector - The reduction in deposit rates is a direct result of the central bank's efforts to lower funding costs for banks, which in turn allows them to reduce loan rates, thereby decreasing the overall financing costs for society [2][4]. - This move is part of a broader trend initiated by state-owned banks, reflecting a systematic approach to monetary policy adjustments that began in July 2024 [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Lower deposit rates are expected to redirect funds from savings to investment and consumption, promoting better allocation of resources and potentially leading to increased employment opportunities and economic growth [4][5]. - The decrease in financing costs is particularly beneficial for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), enabling them to access loans at lower rates for technological development and market expansion [4][5]. Group 3: Effects on Savers - The drop in the one-year fixed deposit rate to 0.95% means that a deposit of 10,000 yuan will yield less than 100 yuan in interest over a year, impacting the financial planning of savers, especially those relying on interest income for retirement [5]. - There is a potential for further declines in deposit rates, which could lead to zero interest rates or even management fees on deposits, posing challenges for conservative investors and retirees [5].

5月20日，红星新闻记者登录工商银行、建设银行的手机银行，在搜索存款利率时，发现这两家银行的利率也于当日作出了调整，调整后的水平与招行一 样。其中，活期利率调整至0.05%，一年期下调至0.95%，三个月、半年、一年、两年分别调整为0.65%、0.85%、0.95%和1.05%，三年期和五年期调整后 分别为1.25%和1.3%。 5月7日，央行发布公告称，5月8日起，公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率由此前的1.50%调整为1.40%。同日，央行行长潘功胜在国新办新闻发布会上宣布下 调政策利率0.1个百分点，经过市场化利率传导，预计将带动贷款市场报价利率（LPR）随之下行0.1个百分点。同时，也将通过利率自律机制引导商业银 行相应下调存款利率。据了解，7天逆回购利率是央行政策利率，该利率调降后，存贷款利率等诸多利率将相应调整。为此，这一轮的降息在市场预料之 中。 新一轮存款利率下调落地。5月20日，工商银行、建设银行、招商银行等多家银行调整人民币存款挂牌利率。红星新闻记者获悉，三家银行的活期利率都 已调整至0.05%，一年期调整至0.95%。 5月20日，招商银行在其官网宣布，将多个期限的存款挂牌利率下调。其中，活 ...

Group 1 - Major Chinese banks, including ICBC, ABC, BOC, CCB, BOCOM, and CMB, collectively lowered deposit rates across various products on the 20th [1] - The rates for fixed-term deposits were reduced by 15 basis points for 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year terms, now at 0.65%, 0.85%, 0.95%, and 1.05% respectively; 3-year and 5-year terms were lowered by 25 basis points to 1.25% and 1.30% [1][4] - The 7-day notice deposit rate was also reduced by 15 basis points [1] Group 2 - This marks the first round of deposit rate cuts by banks this year, with a calculation indicating that interest for a 100,000 yuan deposit for one year will decrease by 150 yuan, and for a 200,000 yuan deposit over three years, it will decrease by 1,500 yuan [4] - Concurrently, the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) saw its first decline of the year, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, both down by 10 basis points from the previous month [4] - For a 1 million yuan loan over 30 years, the LPR decrease results in a monthly payment reduction of approximately 54 yuan and a total repayment reduction of about 20,000 yuan [4] Group 3 - Chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, Wen Bin, noted that the deposit rate cuts led by major state-owned and joint-stock banks create space for LPR adjustments, as the reduction in deposit rates exceeds that of LPR [5] - Wen Bin emphasized that ongoing external uncertainties and trade frictions are affecting market expectations and export growth, which may slow down credit expansion for foreign trade enterprises and related sectors [5] - The appropriate reduction in LPR is expected to guide loan rates downward, stimulating effective financing demand and stabilizing credit levels to support economic recovery [5]