Trade & Tariffs - The U S Department of Commerce will preliminarily impose a 935% anti-dumping duty on imports of Anode-grade graphite from China [1] - The U S Department of Commerce determined that the price of Chinese Anode-grade graphite sold in the U S is lower than its fair market value [1] - U S manufacturers of active anode materials point out that the new anti-dumping duties will be added on top of existing tariffs, bringing the actual tariff rate to 160% [1]

Trade & Tariff - US Department of Commerce to impose preliminary anti-dumping duty of 935% on Anode-grade Graphite imported from China [1] - US Department of Commerce determined that Chinese Anode-grade Graphite was sold in the US at less than fair market value [1]

Industry Trends - Concerns raised about the rush to develop AI and new energy vehicles in China [1] - The US has imposed high anti-dumping duties on Chinese graphite [1] Economic Indicators - US retail sales exceeded expectations last month [1]

Group 1 - The South Korean Ministry of Strategy and Finance announced the imposition of anti-dumping duties on cold-rolled stainless steel sheets and coils originating from Vietnam, with specific rates for different companies [1] - Yongjin Metal Technology (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. faces an anti-dumping duty rate of 18.81%, while TVL Joint Stock Company and others are subject to a rate of 11.37% [1] - The anti-dumping measures are effective for five years from the date of announcement [1] Group 2 - The investigation into the anti-dumping case began on May 30, 2024, and temporary duties were initially set between 3.66% and 11.37% [2] - The temporary anti-dumping duties were extended from four months to seven months, ending on July 18, 2025 [2] - The Korea Trade Commission made a positive final ruling on April 24, 2025, recommending a five-year anti-dumping duty on the products in question [2]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance issued a notice to guide long - term and stable investment of insurance funds and strengthen long - cycle assessment of state - owned commercial insurance companies, which helps improve the enthusiasm of insurance funds to invest in the A - share market [2] - In the second quarter, high - frequency data in multiple fields improved, with offline consumption heat index up 25.5%, offline service consumption index up 33.4%, and key project investment index up 25.7% [2] - The China Coking Industry Association decided to raise coke prices by 50 yuan per ton from July 15, with first - tier metallurgical coke up 50 yuan/ton, second - tier up 40 yuan/ton, and third - tier up 30 yuan/ton [2] - Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade imposed anti - dumping duties ranging from 23.10% to 27.83% on hot - rolled coils of steel originating from China, effective from July 6 [2] Group 2 - Key sectors to focus on: urea, crude oil, PVC [4] - Night - time performance of commodity futures: non - metallic building materials up 2.85%, precious metals up 27.66%, oilseeds up 12.45%, coal, coke, steel and ore up 14.57%, energy up 3.06%, chemicals up 12.72%, grains up 1.23%, agricultural and sideline products up 2.86%, non - ferrous metals up 19.64%, soft commodities up 2.95% [4][5] Group 3 - Performance of major asset classes: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.01%, a monthly increase of 1.91%, and an annual increase of 4.73%; the SSE 50 decreased by 0.01%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.12%, and the CSI 500 increased by 0.74% [7] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures decreased by 0.02%, the 5 - year decreased by 0.01%, and the 2 - year decreased by 0.00% [7] - In the commodity category, the CRB Commodity Index increased by 1.05%, WTI crude oil increased by 3.15%, London spot gold increased by 0.95%, and LME copper decreased by 0.39% [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it will fluctuate strongly [2][4]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The sector sentiment remains strong, and they will have wide - range fluctuations [2][7][8]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon**: They will have wide - range fluctuations [2][13]. - **Coke**: A round of price increase has started, and it will fluctuate strongly [2][18]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by news, it will fluctuate strongly [2][18]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and it will stabilize with fluctuations [2][21]. - **Log**: The main contract is switching, and it will have wide - range fluctuations [2][24]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures closed at 764.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan/ton (0.07%). The positions increased by 1,947 hands. Among spot prices, the price of Carajás fines (65%) rose 4.0 yuan/ton to 845.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, the national consumer price index rose 0.1% year - on - year [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Rebar RB2510 closed at 3,133 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (1.10%); Hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,273 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (1.24%). Spot prices in various regions generally increased [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Steel production and inventory data in late June 2025 were released. Vietnam announced anti - dumping duties on Chinese steel, excluding coil products wider than 1.88m [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [12]. Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon - **Fundamentals**: Silicon ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5,460 yuan/ton, down 116 yuan/ton; Manganese ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5,746 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton. Spot prices of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon in some regions increased [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Ghana plans to build a manganese refinery, and there are price changes in silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon in the market [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Coking coal JM2509 closed at 913 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (1.78%); Coke J2509 closed at 1,519.5 yuan/ton, up 22.5 yuan/ton (1.50%). Spot prices of some coking coal and coke remained stable [18]. - **Price and Position**: There are price quotes for coking coal in northern ports, and position changes in the top 20 members of DCE [18][20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for coke, 1 for coking coal [20]. Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Performance**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton [21]. - **Fundamentals**: There are price quotes for steam coal in southern ports and domestic origins, and no position changes in the top 20 members of ZCE [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [23]. Log - **Fundamentals**: The 2509 contract closed at 786 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. There are price and position data for different contracts, and price quotes for various log products in the spot market [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US president extended the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [26].

Group 1 - The EU is facing significant challenges from the combined pressures of the US, China, and Russia, with France expressing concerns about being bullied by these powers [1][4] - The US has set a deadline of July 9 for tariff negotiations, with the Treasury Secretary threatening to impose tariffs on countries that do not reach an agreement, specifically mentioning the EU [1][4] - China has announced countermeasures against the EU, including anti-dumping duties on imported brandy and stainless steel billets, as well as restrictions on medical device imports [4][6] Group 2 - France's Finance Minister has criticized the situation, likening the global landscape to a game where the EU is being bullied by the US, Russia, and China, and has called for stronger tariff barriers [4][8] - The EU's actions against Chinese companies, such as imposing taxes on Chinese electric vehicles, have been cited as provocations that led to China's retaliatory measures [8][11] - The EU's reliance on the US for security, particularly in the context of the Ukraine conflict, has complicated its relationship with Russia and contributed to its current predicament [11][12]

2025年07月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：板块情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：板块情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：成本预期或有抬升，偏强震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：成本预期或有抬升，偏强震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：消息扰动，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 9 | | 原木：主力切换，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 11 日 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 763. 5 | 27.0 | ...

Group 1: Report Title and Team - Report title: Nickel & Stainless Steel: The Bottom Support is Loosening [1] - Research team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Management Strategy - Shanghai Nickel price range forecast: 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, current volatility 15.17%, historical percentile 3.2% [2] - Inventory management strategy: When product sales price drops, short Shanghai Nickel futures (60% ratio, strategy level 2) and sell call options (50% ratio, strategy level 2) [2] - Procurement management strategy: When worried about raw material price rise, buy Shanghai Nickel forward contracts and sell put options according to production plan, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction - Shanghai Nickel shows weak and volatile intraday trend, affected by the non - ferrous market. Nickel ore price may decline due to increased Philippine shipments, but the decline space is limited. Nickel iron price stabilizes, close to the conversion spread of high - ice nickel. Pay attention to anti - dumping tax and major factory production cuts for stainless steel, and macro - tariff and non - ferrous market trends [3] Group 4:利多/利空解读 - Bullish factors: Congo cobalt mine ban continues, Tsingshan plans to cut stainless steel production by 250,000 tons, Indonesia shortens nickel ore quota license period from three to one year [4] - Bearish factors: Stainless steel enters traditional off - season with slow inventory reduction, nickel - iron industry chain contradiction deepens with surplus situation unchanged, and pure nickel inventory is high [4] Group 5: Daily Market Data Nickel - Latest price of Shanghai Nickel main contract: 119,140 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shanghai Nickel continuous contracts show declines. LME Nickel 3M at 15,015 dollars/ton, down 0.98%. Volume 111,063 lots, open interest 72,919 lots, warehouse receipts down 0.75% [6] Stainless steel - Latest price of stainless steel main contract: 12,770 yuan/ton, unchanged; continuous contracts show increases. Volume 98,636 lots, open interest 87,766 lots, warehouse receipts down 0.11% [7] Group 6: Industry Inventory - Domestic social nickel inventory: 38,029 tons, up 186 tons; LME nickel inventory: 203,562 tons, up 942 tons; stainless steel social inventory: 978 tons, down 14.1 tons; nickel pig iron inventory: 37,534 tons, up 2,924 tons [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term price of the black building materials industry is expected to be "strong - biased", and the medium - term outlook is "sideways" [1][2][6] 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of supply contraction is strengthened, and the market sentiment is optimistic. Frequent macro - level positive factors combined with a good fundamental situation lead to a short - term strong - biased price trend in the black building materials industry [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines have basically ended their quarterly volume - pushing, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The profitability rate of steel enterprises has remained stable, and the molten iron production of small - sample steel enterprises has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. The port inventory has slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The market sentiment is good, and the futures price is oscillating strongly [2] Carbon Element - In the supply side, coal mines in Shanxi are gradually resuming supply, but there are still regional disturbances, and the overall supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the daily customs clearance at the port has remained above 800 vehicles in recent days, and the pre - festival stocking sentiment is evident. In the demand side, the coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. The downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and future attention should be paid to coal mine复产 and Mongolian coal imports [3] Alloys - **Manganese Alloy**: The manganese ore price has remained stable, but the port inventory has slightly increased, and there is still room for the ore price to decline in the future. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the futures price is insufficient, but the downward space is limited due to cost support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is relatively healthy, but there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, which makes it more difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the silicon iron price is insufficient, but due to the continuous loss in the industry, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term under cost support [3][6] Glass - In the demand side, the demand in the off - season is declining, and the deep - processing demand is still weak. In the supply side, there are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and a production line is planned to resume production, so the supply pressure still exists. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and the internal contradiction is not prominent. Recently, the anti - involution sentiment has increased, and the market is worried about supply - side production cuts. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate [12][13] Soda Ash - The supply - side over - capacity situation has not changed, and the long - term suppression still exists. The production is at a high level, and the supply pressure remains. In the demand side, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand for light soda ash is weak, with manufacturers continuously reducing prices. The market is affected by sentiment, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended that enterprises seize the short - term positive - feedback hedging opportunities. The short - term outlook is sideways, and the long - term price center is expected to decline [6][13] Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: In the off - season, the fundamental contradiction is limited, and the off - season pressure remains to be observed. Overseas tariffs are constantly disturbing, and after the steel price increase, the pressure on steel exports shows a marginal weakening trend. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short term [8] - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron production of small - sample steel enterprises has decreased, and the price is oscillating upward. The demand is at a high level, and the fundamental contradiction is not obvious. After this round of upward movement, the futures price has reached an important resistance level, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both weakening marginally, and it is expected to oscillate after the macro - level sentiment cools down [9] - **Coke**: The cost support is strengthening, and the expectation of price increase is growing. The current supply - demand pattern has further improved, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is high, and both the spot and futures prices are strengthening. The current fundamental supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - **Silicon Manganese**: The spot market is in a stalemate. The supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and it is difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the futures price is insufficient, but the downward space is limited due to cost support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [14] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand relationship is currently healthy, but there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, making it difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the price is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term under cost support [16]