据悉，该决议豁免了和发集团（Hoa Phat Group）生产的相关产品。 据报道，欧盟委员会对越南热轧钢进口征收12.1%反倾销税，当前越南钢铁行业正着力开拓欧洲市 场，在此背景下，欧盟委员会出台了上述征税措施。 （责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 据报道，欧盟同时对源自日本和埃及的（同类）进口产品征收了反倾销税。 美国已对源自越南及其他国家的冷轧钢进口征收反倾销税，征税期为2024年7月至2025年6月。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 反内卷下，钢铁表外产能的退出路径 报告要点 区别于过往中央环保督查组主要聚焦煤炭、铝土矿等矿山采选环节的污染问题，本轮督察涉及多地 [Table_Summary] 钢铁表外产能违建问题，引发市场对表外产能退出路径的关注。从反馈问题上看，（1）山西省：个 别铸造企业批小建大，以铸造之名行炼钢之实。（2）陕西省：部分地方遏制"两高"项目盲目上马 不力，违规建设限制类的化工项目、钢铁项目，个别地方"地条钢"屡查屡犯。（3）山东省：个别 企业未经审批和产能置换，新增炼钢产能。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SAC：S0490525080005 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ394 丨证券研究报告丨 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 反内卷下，钢铁表外产能的退出路径 最新跟踪：季节性+流动性助 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the financial performance and operational strategies of Friend Co., Ltd. for the first half of 2025, showcasing growth in revenue and net profit, alongside a focus on enhancing operational efficiency and expanding production capabilities in the automotive and home appliance sectors [2][5][6]. Company Overview and Financial Indicators - Company Name: Friend Co., Ltd. [2] - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached approximately 5.22 billion RMB, a 2.25% increase from the previous year [2]. - Total profit amounted to approximately 215.41 million RMB, reflecting a 33.28% increase year-on-year [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 153.36 million RMB, up 30.53% compared to the same period last year [2]. - The company’s net assets totaled approximately 8.59 billion RMB at the end of the reporting period [2]. Industry and Main Business Analysis - The company operates in the metal processing and distribution sector, primarily serving the mid-to-high-end automotive and home appliance industries [3][4]. - The automotive and home appliance sectors are critical to China's economy, with significant growth in production and sales observed in the first half of 2025 [3]. - The automotive market saw production and sales of 15.62 million and 15.65 million vehicles, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 12.5% and 11.4% [3]. - The company has established a "multi-to-multi" network collaboration model, enhancing supply chain efficiency by integrating upstream steel and aluminum suppliers with downstream automotive and appliance manufacturers [4][8]. Operational Strategies and Developments - The company has focused on optimizing internal production management and cost control to enhance operational efficiency [5]. - A total sales volume of 1.05 million tons was achieved in the reporting period, marking a 16.50% increase year-on-year [5]. - New processing bases are being established in Jiangsu and Sichuan to improve order response times and service capabilities [6]. - The company has invested in new production lines for aluminum extrusion and laser welding, aimed at enhancing product competitiveness and supporting lightweight automotive materials [6][7]. Competitive Advantages - The company has developed significant industry advantages, including a strong brand reputation and comprehensive service capabilities in the automotive metal processing sector [7][8]. - It maintains strategic partnerships with major steel and aluminum manufacturers, ensuring a reliable supply of materials [9]. - The company’s processing capacity is approximately 2.5 million tons annually, allowing it to meet diverse customer demands effectively [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - The expectation for the recovery of steel profitability under the "anti-involution" trend is primarily driven by upstream iron ore concessions, contrasting with the previous cycle where concessions came from downstream [2][6] - The anticipated improvement in the steel industry's supply-demand balance could enhance long-term profitability, although there are ongoing doubts about the sustainability of this recovery [6][28] - The analysis indicates that the profit distribution within the industry chain has shifted significantly, with iron ore now having a stronger capacity to offer concessions, which could benefit the steel sector [7][29] Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Dynamics - Downstream demand has weakened, with apparent consumption of five major steel products increasing by 3.60% year-on-year but decreasing by 2.06% month-on-month [5] - Daily average pig iron production has slightly increased to 2.4066 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 12.04% [5] - Total steel inventory has continued to accumulate, with a week-on-week increase of 3.01% but a year-on-year decrease of 18.13% [5] Price Trends - Recent price trends show Shanghai rebar dropping to 3,300 CNY/ton, a decrease of 30 CNY/ton, and hot-rolled steel at 3,430 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton [5] - The estimated profit for rebar is 37 CNY/ton, while the profit based on a one-month lag in costs is 243 CNY/ton [5] Future Projections - The report projects that if the supply-demand gap improves by 50 million tons, the average price of rebar could increase by 164.87 CNY/ton [7] - A decrease in iron ore prices by 15 USD/ton could lead to a reduction in steel production costs by 210 CNY/ton [7] - The overall expectation is that iron ore price declines will primarily benefit the steel sector, with only a small portion passed on to downstream industries [7][29] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights four main investment lines: 1. Companies benefiting from cost reductions due to new capacities in iron and coke, such as Nanjing Steel and Baosteel [28] 2. Stocks with low price-to-book ratios that may see significant performance recovery, like New Steel and Fangda Special Steel [29] 3. Mergers and acquisitions under the state-owned enterprise reform initiative [29] 4. High-quality processing leaders and resource companies, particularly in the context of macroeconomic recovery expectations [29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [9] Core Insights - The steel industry often experiences administrative production restrictions in autumn due to prominent environmental issues in key regions. The execution of production restrictions was stricter in 2015 and 2019, with significant impacts on crude steel output and prices. The current round of restrictions is expected to have a lesser impact due to improved environmental standards among steel companies [1][4][7] Summary by Sections Production Restrictions Overview - In 2015, production restrictions were primarily concentrated in Hebei Province, requiring all local steel companies to reduce pollutant emissions by over 50%. The crude steel production growth rates in Hebei from July to October 2015 were 3.5%, -4.1%, -2.5%, and 2.2%, indicating a significant decline during the restriction period [5] - In 2019, the restrictions were based on the Ministry of Ecology and Environment's guidelines, with a broader focus on key regions including Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei. The restrictions led to a more significant reduction in crude steel output, estimated at 12.66 million tons, approximately 1.3% of national output [6] Market Dynamics - Recent market sentiment has fluctuated, with steel prices showing volatility. The apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 4.65% year-on-year but decreased by 0.42% month-on-month. Daily average transaction volume for construction steel rose slightly to 103,400 tons [3] - The average daily pig iron production decreased to 2.4032 million tons, while the overall steel production increased by 3.16% year-on-year and 0.59% month-on-month [3] Price Trends - Total steel inventory increased by 1.74% month-on-month but decreased by 21.67% year-on-year. The price of rebar in Shanghai fell to 3,330 CNY/ton, while hot-rolled steel rose to 3,440 CNY/ton [4] - The price of rebar saw a maximum increase of 5.7% in 2015 following the announcement of production restrictions, while in 2019, prices rose by 7.8% after the restrictions were implemented [5][6] Future Outlook - The upcoming 2025 event commemorating the victory in the Anti-Japanese War may lead to stricter air quality regulations in key regions. However, the environmental standards of most steel companies have improved significantly compared to previous rounds of restrictions [7] - The report suggests that the steel industry may benefit from a more favorable supply-demand balance due to the "anti-involution" policies, with potential investment opportunities in high-quality steel companies and those involved in mergers and acquisitions [26][27]

Group 1 - The postponement of the "2+2" tariff negotiations between South Korea and the U.S. adds uncertainty to the already tense South Korea-U.S. relations, highlighting South Korea's difficult position in the complex international landscape [1] - South Korea is under pressure due to the U.S. imposing a tariff deadline of August 1, with the country eager to avoid a 25% comprehensive tariff, especially as Japan has already reached a tariff agreement with the U.S. [1] - South Korea has set two "red lines" in negotiations: not opening the rice and beef markets, as its grain self-sufficiency rate is low, with only 19.5% from 2021 to 2023, and zero self-sufficiency in wheat and corn [1] Group 2 - In 2024, South Korea imported $2.22 billion worth of U.S. beef, making it a major importer, but the U.S. is pushing to lift the ban on U.S. beef imports over 30 months, facing strong opposition from the South Korean agricultural sector [3] - South Korea's recent diplomatic interactions with the U.S. have seen multiple cancellations of meetings, indicating U.S. dissatisfaction with South Korea's proposals and an attempt to assert dominance in the bilateral relationship [3] Group 3 - On July 25, South Korea's Ministry of Trade announced a request for anti-dumping duties of 28.16% to 33.57% on carbon steel and hot-rolled steel from China, which raises questions about its timing amid ongoing U.S. tariff negotiations [5] - This anti-dumping investigation was initiated earlier in the year, but its announcement during critical negotiations suggests a strategic move to appease the U.S. while deflecting responsibility from the current government [5] Group 4 - South Korea is navigating a complex geopolitical environment, heavily reliant on U.S. military protection while also depending on China as its largest trading partner, with trade volumes exceeding $300 billion in 2024 [6] - The current administration appears to be leaning towards the U.S., as evidenced by recent actions such as rejecting China's invitation to a military parade and imposing tariffs on Chinese steel, signaling a shift in diplomatic posture [8] Group 5 - Over-reliance on the U.S. could jeopardize South Korea's relationship with China, which is crucial for its economic development, as many industries depend on Chinese raw materials [8] - The imposition of tariffs on Chinese steel may lead to increased costs for South Korean industries, potentially escalating trade tensions and undermining established economic cooperation [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [8] Core Insights - The current round of supply-side optimization in the steel industry emphasizes the "supporting the strong and eliminating the weak" approach, indicating that underperforming capacities should be limited while leading companies are expected to strengthen [2][6] - The market sentiment has significantly improved with the deepening of the "anti-involution" policy, leading to a positive signal of "volume and price linkage" in the steel market [4] - The report highlights that the execution of the "anti-involution" policy may be smoother compared to previous years due to the absence of large-scale stimulus measures, suggesting a gradual improvement in the industry's long-term trends despite short-term fluctuations [2][6] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 1.03% year-on-year and 0.36% month-on-month, while the average daily transaction volume of construction steel increased by 2.10 thousand tons per day compared to the previous week [4] - The average daily pig iron output of sample steel companies decreased to 2.4223 million tons, a decline of 0.21 thousand tons per day [4] - Total steel inventory decreased by 0.14% month-on-month and 24.22% year-on-year, with long product inventory down by 27.40% year-on-year and plate inventory down by 17.74% year-on-year [4] Price and Profitability - Shanghai rebar prices rose to 3,450 RMB/ton, an increase of 180 RMB/ton, while hot-rolled prices reached 3,520 RMB/ton, up 160 RMB/ton [5] - The estimated profit for rebar is 238 RMB/ton, with a lagging cost profit of 495 RMB/ton [5] - The report suggests that with the support of the "anti-involution" policy and strong determination to curb deflation risks, steel prices may show an upward trend that is easier to rise than to fall [4] Elasticity and Valuation - The report calculates the elasticity of steel stocks based on the assumption that the average net profit per ton of listed steel companies could rise to 200/300/400 RMB/ton, compared to 56 RMB/ton in Q1 2025 [6] - Companies such as Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and CITIC Special Steel are identified as having significant elasticity [6] - The report emphasizes that if the valuation of steel stocks returns to historical averages, it could indicate strong investment opportunities, particularly for companies with low price-to-book (PB) ratios [6][32] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies four main investment lines: 1. Companies benefiting from the release of new capacities in iron ore and coke, such as Nanjing Steel and Hualing Steel [32] 2. Steel stocks with low PB ratios that may experience significant performance and valuation recovery, such as New Steel and Fangda Special Steel [32] 3. Mergers and acquisitions under the state-owned enterprise reform theme, which could enhance asset quality and subsequent valuation recovery [33] 4. High-quality processing leaders and resource leaders, particularly in specialized fields, are also highlighted as worthy of attention [33]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has preliminarily determined that Oman is circumventing anti-dumping and countervailing duties on similar products from China by using hot-rolled steel produced in China to manufacture circular welded carbon steel pipes (CWP) [1][3]. Group 1: Investigation and Findings - The investigation began on November 19, 2024, focusing on circumvention activities across Oman, with Al Jazeera Steel Products Company SAOG identified as the mandatory respondent [3]. - The average anti-dumping duty rate for Chinese CWP is 85.55%, while the countervailing duty rate is as high as 198.49% [3]. - The U.S. has intensified scrutiny on imported steel products, particularly those processed through third countries to evade tariffs [3][4]. Group 2: Market Impact - In 2024, the U.S. imported approximately 50,000 tons of CWP from Oman, accounting for 2.5% of total imports, with Chinese hot-rolled steel remaining competitive in the global market due to price advantages [4]. - The preliminary ruling may lead to the imposition of tariffs on Omani CWP similar to those on Chinese products, potentially exceeding 200%, which would significantly raise export costs for Oman and affect its competitiveness in the U.S. market [5]. - U.S. domestic steel producers like Nucor and Steel Dynamics may benefit from this situation as their market share could increase [5]. Group 3: Broader Context - The global steel market is currently facing an oversupply situation, with low-priced steel from China entering the U.S. market through third countries, leading to ongoing trade disputes [5]. - Similar circumvention issues have been observed in global trade, with countries like Vietnam and Thailand also facing investigations by the U.S. [4].

Core Viewpoint - Cleveland-Cliffs reported a non-GAAP loss of $0.50 per share for Q2 2025, which was better than the consensus estimate of a $0.71 loss, while GAAP revenue reached $4.9 billion, exceeding analyst forecasts of $4.86 billion. Despite improvements in shipments and cost reductions, the company continues to face challenges with ongoing losses and negative gross margins in steel production, indicating uncertainty in achieving sustainable profitability [1][6]. Financial Performance - The company experienced a year-over-year decline in revenue of 3.1%, from $5.09 billion in Q2 2024 to $4.9 billion in Q2 2025 [2]. - Adjusted EBITDA fell significantly by 70%, from $323 million in Q2 2024 to $97 million in Q2 2025 [2][6]. - Steel shipments increased by 7.5% year-over-year, totaling 4.3 million net tons in Q2 2025, partly due to the integration of Canadian operations [2][5]. - Liquidity decreased by 27%, from $3.7 billion in Q2 2024 to $2.7 billion in Q2 2025 [2]. Operational Developments - The company achieved a reduction in steel unit costs by $15 per ton compared to the previous quarter, with a target of $50 per ton cost reduction for the full year 2025 [7][10]. - The product mix included hot-rolled steel (40%), coated steel (27%), and cold-rolled steel (15%), with automotive sector sales accounting for 26% of steelmaking revenue [8]. Strategic Focus - Cleveland-Cliffs is focused on the automotive market, aiming to supply high-margin steel and investing in electrical steels for electric vehicles and energy infrastructure [4]. - The company is pursuing operational efficiency through acquisitions and optimizing its asset base while maintaining strong labor relations and environmental commitments [4]. Future Outlook - Management expects further gains in adjusted EBITDA in the second half of 2025 and anticipates the elimination of a legacy slab supply contract will alleviate earnings pressure [11]. - Capital expenditure guidance has been reduced to approximately $600 million for FY2025, reflecting the cancellation of non-core projects [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic indicators and trends in various sectors, highlighting the performance of key commodities, financing conditions for small and medium enterprises, and the state of the real estate market in China. Group 1: Liquidity and Financing Environment - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for June 2025 is 49.12, with a month-on-month increase of 0.07% [3] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in June 2025 is -3.7 percentage points, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [3] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Rebar prices have reached a new high since April, with a week-on-week increase of 0.93% [4] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces increased by 0.99 percentage points, while the cement and asphalt rates decreased by 3.30 percentage points and 2.6 percentage points, respectively [4] - The cumulative year-on-year completion area of commercial housing from January to June is -14.80% [5] Group 3: Industrial Products Chain - The national half-steel tire operating rate is at a five-year high of 75.99%, with a month-on-month increase of 3.07 percentage points [6] - The June PMI new orders index is at 50.20% [6] Group 4: Price Trends of Specific Commodities - Tungsten concentrate prices have reached the highest level since 2011 [7] - The price of graphite electrodes is 18,000 yuan/ton, with a comprehensive gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down 22.59% month-on-month [7] Group 5: Price Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.14 this week [8] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 110 yuan/ton [8] Group 6: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for June 2025 is 47.70%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is 1,303.54 points, down 0.77% [9] Group 7: Valuation Metrics - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.09%, with the commercial vehicle sector performing the best at +5.98% [10] - The PB ratio of the general steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.54, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]