技術分析
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11月12日【輪證短評】地平線機械人、南方航空、協鑫科技、中國中免
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-13 03:38
Group 1: Horizon Robotics (09660) - Horizon Robotics has experienced a significant decline, with a recent high of 11.32 HKD and a low of 8.03 HKD, closing at 8.33 HKD today. Investors remain optimistic about the stock's potential to break through 11.32 HKD [1] - Currently, there are no related warrants available in the market, only two call options with substantial out-of-the-money margins. Investors may need to wait for more closely priced products to be issued [1] - If investors are optimistic about the stock, they should consider monitoring the stock itself rather than relying on warrants, which may decline significantly if the stock does not rise or remains stagnant [1] Group 2: China Southern Airlines (01055) - China Southern Airlines has shown a strong upward trend, but trading volume has started to weaken, indicating potential fatigue in the stock's performance [2] - Investors are still optimistic, believing the stock could reach 6 HKD or even 6.3 HKD, although the immediate resistance level is around 5.43 HKD [2] - There are limited warrant products available for this stock, with one at an exercise price of 4.88 HKD and another upcoming at 6.66 HKD, making investor choices quite limited [4] Group 3: GCL-Poly Energy (03800) - GCL-Poly Energy's stock price has not performed well, dropping to a low of 1.25 HKD and closing at 1.32 HKD, with significant trading volume during the decline [4] - Despite the downturn, investors remain confident that the stock could rebound above 1.5 HKD, needing to first break the resistance at 1.45 HKD [4] - There are several warrant options available, with some having favorable terms, including three products expiring in March with exercise prices around 1.68 HKD to 1.69 HKD [7] Group 4: China Duty Free Group (01880) - China Duty Free Group's stock has shown volatility, recently reaching a high before closing at 78.9 HKD, with some investors still seeing potential for upward movement [8] - There are multiple warrant options available at exercise prices around 79 HKD and 80 HKD, with one product showing a leverage advantage of 3.5 times and a low implied volatility of 64.8% [8] - The market for warrants related to this stock is competitive, with various products available, indicating a healthy interest from issuers despite the stock being less frequently mentioned [8]
支持阻力全解析:贛鋒鋰業技術位階深度研判
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-11 13:25
消息面上,11月10日,贛鋒鋰業發佈公告,關於本公司與Lithium Argentina共同開發合併專案的相關事宜。近日,阿根廷薩爾塔省礦業和能源秘書處已為合 併專案一期頒發了《環境影響評估報告》(DIA),標誌著合併專案取得關鍵進展。花旗:將 贛鋒鋰業 A股評級上調至買進;目標價85.51元人民幣。市場上, 投資者看至60元。 贛鋒鋰業股價近期隨鋰價走勢震盪,昨日(10日)收報54元,單日上升2.47%,成交金額20.62億元,顯示市場交投活躍。今日(11日)升1.02%,股價報 54.55元。從技術走勢觀察,股價目前正處於關鍵轉捩點,短期支持位在49元,若調整加深可能下探43.7元水準。上方阻力方面,59.1元構成重要關卡,突破 後下一目標將看向64.3元。 | 10:27 | | | 11 2 6 11 10:27 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | AL Q C. ( | | | | 圖表 輪脂 評論 | 資訊 | | 圖表 輪證 評論 | | 資訊 | | 22130 贛鋒星展六五購A.C | | | | 14802 贛鋒匯豐六五購 ...
平保區間突破在即?短線交易的全方位解析
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-11 13:16
Core Insights - China Ping An's stock price has shown a steady upward trend, currently at 59.25 HKD, reflecting a 2.24% increase [1] - The stock is at a critical technical position, with short-term support at 56.5 HKD and potential downside to 54.3 HKD if adjustments deepen [1] - The upper resistance level is at 59.5 HKD, with a breakthrough potentially targeting 61.8 HKD [1] - Moving averages indicate a bullish arrangement, with the 10-day moving average at 56.96 HKD significantly above the 30-day and 60-day moving averages [1] - The recent 5-day volatility of 5.7% provides reasonable trading space for short-term traders, although the RSI has reached 66, indicating an overbought condition [1] Technical Indicators - Technical indicators present mixed signals; while several oscillators indicate neutrality, the Williams and Stochastic indicators show overbought conditions, and the CCI has issued a sell signal [3] - Conversely, MACD and Bollinger Bands maintain buy signals, indicating a divergence in technical indicators [3] Derivative Products Performance - Recent derivative products have shown remarkable performance, with products recommended on November 5 achieving significant gains; for instance, Bank of China call option 18122 and UBS call option 18154 recorded increases of 41% and 38% respectively, against a backdrop of a 3.02% rise in the underlying stock [3] - JPMorgan's bull certificate 59648 and UBS bull certificate 61834 also saw increases of 29% and 24% respectively [3] Options and Leverage - UBS call option 18154 offers a leverage of 16.7 times with a strike price of 67.23 HKD, while Bank of China call option 18122 provides a leverage of 15.7 times with the same strike price [6] - HSBC put option 19792 offers a leverage of 13.7 times with a strike price of 49.16 HKD, noted for its low premium and implied volatility [6] - Morgan Stanley put option 20419 provides a leverage of 12.9 times with the same strike price, also characterized by favorable leverage and implied volatility [6] Bull and Bear Certificates - UBS bull certificate 58105 offers a leverage of 9.9 times with a redemption price of 53 HKD, noted for its high actual leverage and low premium [8] - UBS bull certificate 61986 provides a leverage of 8.8 times with a redemption price of 52 HKD, recognized for its lowest premium and high actual leverage [8] - HSBC bear certificate 61965 offers a leverage of 25.5 times with a redemption price of 60 HKD, while Societe Generale bear certificate 51885 provides a leverage of 27.9 times with the same redemption price, both noted for their low premiums [8]
港交所多空策略佈局:從技術面到衍生產品選擇
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-11 12:36
在港交所相關衍生產品中,法巴認購證29424提供7.9倍槓桿,行使價518元,具有槓桿最高且溢價與引伸波幅最低的特點。中銀認沽證19860提供10.6倍槓 桿,行使價387.8元,引伸波幅相對較低。瑞銀認沽證19854提供9.9倍槓桿,行使價387.8元,同樣具有引伸波幅相對較低的優勢。 | | | | | | CAL Q C | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 電表 | 輪設 | 評論 | 資訊 | | | | 間表 | | | 29424 港交法巴六五購B.C | | | | | | | 1986 | | | 交易中 11/10 13:51:22 | | | | | | 88 42 | 交易中 | | | 最 高 0.14.8+ | | | | 0.150 開 市 | | | OLO | 0.143 | | 最 低 +0.009 +6.47% | | | | 0.139 前 收 | | | -0.014 | 0.139 | | 成交量 4394.00萬股 成交額 | | | | 631.77萬 有效槓桿 | | ...
BTC反彈開始!回落哪裡有支撐?長線空,短線多?
提阿非羅大人TiaBTC· 2025-11-10 19:11
Market Analysis - The analysis suggests that Bitcoin's recent price action might be a distribution phase within a consolidation range, rather than the start of a bull market, cautioning against overly optimistic interpretations based solely on price rebounds [1] - Technical analysis of Bitcoin's daily chart indicates potential support levels holding, with observations of buy signals from certain exchanges, suggesting possible upward movement [1] - The report identifies a potential market framework shift in Bitcoin, noting a transition from lower highs and lower lows to higher lows and higher highs, implying a possible change in trend [1] - Ethereum is expected to have further upside potential, targeting previous highs that have not yet been tested, with a possible resistance area identified for potential short positions [2] Trading Strategies - The analysis suggests looking for potential long opportunities around a specific 4-hour candlestick level, anticipating a retest of previous highs and a possible continuation of the upward trend [1] - The report suggests that a potential support zone for Bitcoin exists where a naked candle overlaps with a previous high and the Value Area Low (Val), indicating a possible area for price consolidation or bounce [2] Exchange Observations - Bybit is highlighted as an exchange that aligns well with technical analysis, implying it may be a preferred platform for the analyst's trading approach [2]
從均線系統看山東黃金:突破還是回調?
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-10 16:17
Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continue to fluctuate, impacting the stock price of Shandong Gold, which rose by 5.74% to 34.64 yuan. The stock is at a critical technical position, with short-term support at 31.4 yuan and potential deeper adjustments down to 29.8 yuan. Resistance is seen at 37.1 yuan, with the next target at 40.6 yuan if broken [1]. Technical Analysis - The moving averages present a complex pattern, with the 10-day moving average at 32.6 yuan and the 60-day at 33.86 yuan providing support, while the 30-day moving average at 36.03 yuan remains a pressure point. This arrangement indicates that the stock price is at a crucial stage for directional choice, with a recent 5-day volatility of 11.4% reflecting market sentiment fluctuations [1]. - The stock price of Shandong Gold is currently at 34.640, up by 1.880, representing a 5.74% increase, with a trading volume of 440 million shares [7]. Investment Products - For investors optimistic about Shandong Gold's future performance, two call warrant products are available. The CITIC Securities call warrant (20124) has a strike price of 42.08 yuan, approximately 21% out of the money, expiring in March next year. This product is suitable for those expecting the stock price to break through the 42 yuan mark in the medium term. Another option is the Bank of China call warrant (20315) with a strike price of 45.8 yuan, about 32% out of the money, also expiring in March next year, suitable for investors with a higher risk tolerance expecting significant price breakthroughs [3].
11月7日【港股Podcast】恆指、華虹半導體 、中海油 、嗶哩嗶哩、中國移動 、贛鋒鋰業
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-09 20:29
Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) experienced a slight decline, closing at 26,241 points, which is a minor drop of less than 1% after a significant rise the previous day [1][2] - Technical signals indicate a majority "sell" signal, with support around 25,700 points and resistance at approximately 26,700 points, suggesting a potential trading range of about 1,000 points [2] - Investors are advised to choose safer products with recovery prices further from the current levels, such as 25,600 or 25,500 for bullish options, and above 26,700 for bearish options [2] Group 2 - Semiconductor company Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) showed a slight price drop, closing at 79.45 HKD, with support at around 73 HKD and resistance at 87.5 HKD [6] - Technical signals for Hua Hong indicate a slight majority of "buy" signals, with 8 buy signals compared to 6 sell signals [6][10] - CNOOC (00883.HK) is experiencing an upward trend, closing at 21.18 HKD, with resistance at 21.6 HKD and potential for further gains if it breaks this level [12][16] Group 3 - Bilibili (09626.HK) is showing weak performance, closing at 216 HKD, with potential further declines to 205 HKD if the downward trend continues [18] - China Mobile (00941.HK) is performing well, closing at 87.15 HKD, close to the upper Bollinger Band, with resistance at 88.1 HKD [19][22] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) closed at 52.7 HKD, near the upper Bollinger Band, with resistance at 55.9 HKD and a prevailing "sell" signal in the market [24][27]
黃金賽道再發力?紫金礦業短線佈局全透視
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-08 03:53
Core Viewpoint - Recent strong performance in gold prices has shifted market focus towards gold stocks, particularly Zijin Mining, which has shown a robust upward trend and technical strength [1][9]. Technical Analysis - Zijin Mining's stock price is currently at 32.66 HKD, up 1.87%, having successfully broken through the 10-day moving average of 31.83 HKD, indicating a strong market position [1]. - The stock is at a critical point in a triangular consolidation pattern, suggesting a potential breakout could occur soon [1]. - Key technical levels include support at 30.7 HKD and 29.4 HKD, with resistance at 34.4 HKD and a challenge to the previous high of 35.5 HKD if broken [1]. - The stock price is closely aligned with the 30-day moving average of 32.45 HKD, indicating a consolidation phase with defined support and resistance levels [1]. Market Signals - Technical indicators show a neutral to slightly bullish trend, with several oscillators remaining neutral, while momentum indicators signal a buy, indicating accumulating market momentum [3]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 54, suggesting ample room for future movement [3]. Product Performance - Recent performance in the warrants market related to Zijin Mining has demonstrated strong leverage effects, with a notable increase in related call options [3]. - On November 5, the stock rose by 5.47% over two days, leading to significant gains in related call options, with Morgan Stanley's call option 20232 rising by 36% and Bank of China's call option 20015 increasing by 25% [3]. Investment Opportunities - For investors optimistic about Zijin Mining's future, two selected call options are available: Morgan Stanley's call option 20232, offering 5.3 times leverage with the lowest premium and implied volatility, suitable for cost-effective investors [6]. - Bank of China's call option 20015 provides 4.1 times leverage and is the highest leverage option available, with relatively low implied volatility [7].
中銀市場觀察與技術分析:建行關鍵位攻防策略
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-06 12:46
Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Hong Kong financial sector has been stable, with China Construction Bank (CCB) as a key focus due to its leading position among domestic banks. The stock price is consolidating around HKD 8.05, with market attention on potential short-term breakout directions [1][7]. Technical Analysis - CCB's technical indicators show a mixed pattern, with the stock price remaining above several moving averages. The MA10 is at 7.9, MA30 at 7.6, and MA60 at 7.67, indicating a bullish trend in the medium to long term. The RSI is at 68, nearing the overbought zone but not at extreme levels. Various oscillators like MACD and Bollinger Bands maintain buy signals, while the Williams indicator suggests overbought conditions and issues a sell signal, indicating divergence in technical indicators [1][4]. Key Support and Resistance Levels - Immediate support is at HKD 7.78, with a potential drop to HKD 7.51 if this level is breached. The key resistance level to watch is HKD 8.24; a successful breakout could lead to a target of HKD 8.44. The stock has shown a volatility of 5.1% over five days, providing a favorable environment for conservative investors [2]. Derivative Product Performance - Recent market data indicates strong performance of CCB-related derivative products. For instance, JPMorgan's call option (17265) saw a remarkable increase of 131% within two days, while Societe Generale's bull certificate (62134) rose by 35%, and UBS's bull certificate (62178) increased by 43%. These products demonstrated the leverage effect, as the underlying stock rose by 4.55% during the same period [4]. Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - There has been a noticeable shift in market sentiment, with funds moving from high-growth sectors to traditional financial stocks like CCB. Since October, CCB's stock price has risen from around HKD 7 to above HKD 8, reflecting a broader trend of capital reallocating towards safer, income-generating stocks amid expectations of continued interest rate cuts in the U.S. [7][8]. Investment Tools and Strategies - Investors looking to capitalize on CCB's potential can consider high-leverage options such as the call option (20261) with a strike price of HKD 9.08, expiring in March next year, which offers a leverage of approximately 12 times. Other options include the Bank of China call option (19572) with a strike price of HKD 8.07, providing about 5.5 times leverage, and UBS's call option (20935) with similar characteristics [8][9]. Bull and Bear Certificates - For bullish strategies, Societe Generale's bull certificate (62134) has a buyback price of HKD 7, offering an actual leverage of about 9.7 times. UBS's bull certificate (62178) also has a buyback price of HKD 7, with a leverage of approximately 8.8 times. For bearish strategies, JPMorgan's bear certificate (68463) has a buyback price of HKD 8.3, with a high leverage of 17.1 times, suitable for investors with higher risk tolerance [11].
港交所短線攻略:捕捉突破關鍵點的交易良機!
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-06 12:33
Group 1: Stock Performance and Technical Analysis - The stock price of Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has shown positive momentum, rising by 2.12% to HKD 432.6, successfully breaking through the 10-day moving average resistance [1] - The current price is in the overlapping range of the 10-day and 30-day moving averages, with the 10-day line providing initial support at approximately HKD 427.98 and the 30-day line forming short-term pressure at around HKD 433.24 [1] - The 5-day volatility reached 4.6%, indicating that market fluctuations have created good opportunities for short-term trading [1] Group 2: Technical Indicators - Technical indicators are showing mixed signals; the RSI is at a neutral level of 50, the stochastic oscillator has issued a buy signal, while the MACD indicates a sell signal, reflecting the market's current indecisiveness [1] - Support and resistance analysis shows the first support level at HKD 422, with strong support at HKD 416; on the upside, initial resistance is at HKD 443, with key resistance at the psychological level of HKD 450 [1] Group 3: Derivative Products Performance - Three HKEX-related derivative products mentioned on November 4 performed well in the following two days, with UBS bull certificate 64102 rising by 11%, HSBC bull certificate 57036 increasing by 10%, and HSBC call warrant 29458 up by 7% [3] - These products outperformed the underlying stock's increase of 1.6% during the same period, showcasing the leverage effect of derivative instruments when the market direction is correctly identified [3] Group 4: Recommended Derivative Products - For bullish investors, recommended call warrants include Bank of China call warrant 13855 and UBS call warrant 15854, both offering approximately 7.7 times leverage with a strike price set at HKD 518.5, featuring relatively low premiums to reduce time value loss [6] - For bearish investors, HSBC put warrant 19847 and Bank of China put warrant 19860 are suggested, both with a strike price of HKD 387.8 and leverage exceeding 10 times, also benefiting from low premiums [6] Group 5: Bull and Bear Certificates Recommendations - For bullish investors, UBS bull certificate 62570 and Societe Generale bull certificate 56665 are recommended, with leverage of 12.5 times and 12 times respectively, and recovery prices set at HKD 403 and HKD 400.5, featuring the lowest premiums in the current market [9] - For bearish investors, UBS bear certificate 56683 and HSBC bear certificate 56027 are available, both with recovery prices at HKD 460 and leverage of 15.7 times and 14.4 times, also characterized by relatively low premiums [9] Group 6: Market Sentiment and Trading Strategies - The article poses a question regarding whether HKEX can successfully break through the resistance at HKD 443, highlighting the mixed technical signals in the current environment [11] - It invites readers to share their trading plans and uncertainties, suggesting a focus on either waiting for a clear breakout or engaging in high sell-low buy strategies within the range [11]