Core Viewpoint - The US dollar against the Japanese yen experienced a slight increase of 0.44% to 147.66 yen, despite a weekly decline of 0.77%, indicating a W-shaped downward trend throughout the week [1] Currency Performance Summary - The euro against the Japanese yen rose by 0.36%, with a cumulative weekly increase of 0.20% [1] - The British pound against the Japanese yen fell by 0.15%, resulting in a total weekly decline of 0.66% [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The US Dollar Index increased by 0.80% to close at 98.64, with a weekly high of 98.95 [1] - USD/CNY rose by 0.10% to 7.1776, while USD/CNH increased by 0.11% to 7.1802 [1] - The Chinese Yuan showed mixed performance against other currencies, with notable declines against EUR, JPY, and AUD [1] Group 2: Economic Data Focus - Key economic data releases include the US Leading Economic Index for June, expected to decline from -0.1% to -0.2% [2] - The Eurozone's manufacturing and services PMI for July are anticipated to improve, while the US manufacturing PMI is expected to drop from 52.9 to 52.5 [2][4] - The US durable goods orders for June are forecasted to decrease significantly by 10.5% after a previous increase of 16.4% [2] Group 3: Central Bank Decisions - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates during its upcoming meeting, with market focus on President Lagarde's comments regarding future monetary policy [3][11] - The market anticipates that the ECB will continue to reference inflation and tariff policies in its future decisions, which could impact the Euro's value [3][11] Group 4: Currency Trends - The USD/CNY is expected to remain stable around 7.18, influenced by the performance of the US Dollar Index [9][10] - The Euro is projected to face downward pressure if the ECB signals potential rate cuts, especially with upcoming PMI data expected to show improvement [11] - The Japanese Yen is under pressure due to inflation data and impending tariffs from the US, with the USD/JPY reaching a high of 149.18 [15]

Group 1 - The Japanese yen increased by 1% to reach a peak of 142.54 yen per dollar during the trading session [1]

Core Viewpoint - The fluctuating exchange rate of the Japanese yen is influenced by the inconsistent statements from the Trump administration regarding tariffs and currency, leading to market participants avoiding directional trading [2][4]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - Since April, the yen has been oscillating between 140 to 150 yen per dollar, lacking a clear direction due to the mixed signals from the Trump administration on tariffs and currency policy [2]. - The yen appreciated significantly from nearly 160 yen per dollar at the beginning of the year to around 140 yen by April, marking an increase of approximately 20 yen [4]. - As of late May, speculative positions in yen against the dollar had reached historical highs but began to decrease, returning to levels seen in early April [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Speculative Behavior - Concerns over the outflow of U.S. investment funds have intensified, particularly in response to fears that the Trump administration's aggressive tariff policies could harm the U.S. economy [2]. - The Trump administration's recent softening stance on tariffs, especially in negotiations with China and the EU, has contributed to the volatility in the yen's exchange rate [2][4]. - The upcoming expiration of the suspension of certain tariffs in early July raises questions about future negotiations and their potential impact on the yen's direction [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - If the Trump administration continues to weaken its stance on tariffs and the strong dollar, the yen may remain directionless and stuck in a range [6]. - Conversely, if tariff negotiations fail, there is a risk of a repeat of the "triple kill" scenario where stocks, bonds, and the dollar all face selling pressure, potentially leading to further chaos in the yen's exchange rate [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuating exchange rate of the Japanese yen, influenced by the inconsistent tariff and currency policies of the Trump administration, leading to uncertainty in market direction [1][3][5]. Group 1: Yen Exchange Rate Trends - Since April, the yen has been oscillating between 140 to 150 yen per dollar, lacking a clear trend due to the mixed signals from the Trump administration regarding tariffs and currency [1][3]. - The yen appreciated significantly from nearly 160 yen per dollar in January to around 140 yen by April, marking an increase of approximately 20 yen [3]. - As of late May, speculative positions in yen against the dollar had reached historical highs but began to decrease, returning to levels seen in early April [4]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies - Concerns over the potential negative impact of Trump's aggressive tariff policies on the U.S. economy have led to a sell-off in the dollar, U.S. stocks, and bonds, creating a "triple kill" scenario [3]. - The Trump administration has softened its stance on tariffs with major trading partners like China and the EU, which may influence the future direction of the yen [3][5]. - The upcoming expiration of the suspension of reciprocal tariff increases in early July raises questions about the progress of tariff negotiations and its potential impact on the yen [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Speculative Behavior - The market is highly sensitive to changes in Trump’s policies, which have affected speculative trading behaviors, particularly among hedge funds [3][4]. - The confirmation from U.S. and Japanese authorities that the current yen exchange rate reflects economic fundamentals may lead to a reduction in speculative positions [4]. - If tariff negotiations fail, there is a risk of renewed market turmoil, which could further destabilize the yen [5].

Group 1 - The US dollar has increased by 1% against the Swiss franc, reaching a daily high of 0.8320 [1] - The US dollar has risen by 1.5% against the Japanese yen, currently trading at 145.92 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, expresses the desire to hold talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen based on the existing exchange rate agreement, following Yellen's statement that the U.S. will not seek a specific yen exchange rate target [1] Group 1 - Kato Katsunobu aims to discuss exchange rate issues with U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen [1] - Yellen previously indicated that the U.S. does not have a specific target for the yen's exchange rate [1] - The upcoming meeting between the finance ministers is set to address exchange rate concerns [1] Group 2 - President Trump had previously complained about the weak yen benefiting Japan in trade, leading to speculation about potential U.S. pressure for yen appreciation [1]

Group 1 - The core issue discussed between Japan's Finance Minister Kato and US Treasury Secretary Yellen is the yen exchange rate, with Japan resisting any requests to strengthen the yen [1] - Japan's policymakers believe that there is limited room for direct actions such as foreign exchange intervention or immediate interest rate hikes to influence the yen's value [1][2] - The meeting between Kato and Yellen is expected to focus on understanding the US's perspective on exchange rates and how it relates to ongoing trade negotiations [1][2] Group 2 - Market expectations have risen regarding Japan facing pressure to strengthen the yen against the dollar, which has led to the yen reaching a seven-month high [2] - Japan's ability to influence the exchange rate in a mutually beneficial manner is very limited, with the last intervention occurring when the yen was at a nearly thirty-year low [2] - Concerns exist that a stronger yen could negatively impact exporters' profit margins during times of tariff tensions [2][3] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that raising interest rates in response to US demands would undermine the independence of Japan's central bank and damage its credibility [3] - Both countries may seek a middle ground in their language regarding currency movements, agreeing that stable exchange rate fluctuations are desirable [4]