行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 04 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 ＃summary＃ 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，3 日生猪主力 2509 合约平开后探底回升震荡走高，尾盘收阳，最 高 14420 元/吨，最低 142500 元/吨，收盘报 143 ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 06 月 27 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，26 日生猪主力 2509 合约小幅高开后震荡走高，尾盘收阳，最高 14080 元/吨，最低 13990 元/吨，收盘报 14040 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report Date: June 25, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The state reserve policy stabilizes pig prices and boosts confidence, and the phased reduction in volume and weight by enterprises supports the rebound of spot and futures prices. However, in the medium to long term, pig supply is expected to increase, demand enters the seasonal off - peak season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. Futures are currently in a rebound situation, but are still affected by the off - peak demand season and loose supply - demand in the medium to long term [10] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: On the 24th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened flat, then rose, fell back, and fluctuated down, closing with a negative line. The highest was 14,060 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,905 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,940 yuan/ton, a 0.14% decline from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 4,338 lots to 165,425 lots. The national average price of foreign three - way pigs was 14.46 yuan/kg, a 0.05 yuan/kg increase from the previous day [9] - **Market Analysis**: On the demand side, the price difference between fat and standard pigs remained low, the utilization rate of pigsties increased slightly, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment was low, only a small amount entered the market, mostly in a wait - and - see state, and the support for prices weakened. With rising temperatures, terminal demand weakened, slaughter enterprise orders were average, and the开工 rate and slaughter volume of slaughter enterprises remained low. On the supply side, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase from the actual slaughter volume in May, and the slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. Currently, enterprises are reducing volume and weight in a phased manner, the slaughter volume of large pigs has declined, and the slaughter weight has decreased slightly [10] 2. Industry News - As of May this year, the inventory of breeding sows in sample farms was 1.147 million heads, a 0.92% month - on - month increase and an 8.57% year - on - year increase [11] 3. Data Overview - As of May, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.315 million heads, a 1.32% month - on - month increase and a 14.3% year - on - year increase [20] - In early June, the average proportion of secondary fattening sales was 0.75%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from the previous ten - day period [20] - As of the week of June 19, the average national slaughter weight was 128.28 kg, a 0.54 - kg decrease from the previous week, a 0.42% month - on - month decrease [20] - In early June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 38.5%, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous ten - day period. The price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs in the week of June 19 was 0.07 yuan/jin, a 0.01 yuan/jin increase from the previous week [20]

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 24, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Pig Market - Futures: On the 23rd, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened higher, then bottomed out and rebounded in a narrow range, closing with a negative line at the end of the session. The highest was 14,010 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,925 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,980 yuan/ton, up 0.94% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 756 lots to 161,087 lots [9]. - Spot: On the 23rd, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.41 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous day [9]. Pig Comment - Demand side: The price difference between fat and standard pigs remained low, the utilization rate of pigsties increased slightly, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening to replenish inventory was low. Only a small amount entered the market, mostly in a wait-and-see state, weakening the support for prices. As the temperature rose, terminal demand weakened, the orders of slaughtering enterprises were average, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises remained low. On June 23rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 144,100 heads, a decrease of 800 heads from the previous day and a decrease of 1,400 heads from a week ago [10]. - Supply side: According to the sample data of Yongyi, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase compared with the actual slaughter volume in May, and the slaughter volume continued to increase month-on-month. Currently, enterprises were reducing the volume and weight of slaughtering in stages, and the slaughter volume of large pigs decreased, resulting in a slight decrease in the slaughter weight [10]. - Overall: The purchasing and storage policy played a role in stabilizing pig prices and boosting confidence. At the same time, the phased reduction in volume and weight of enterprises continued to support the rebound of futures and spot prices. However, in the medium and long term, the supply of live pigs was expected to continue to increase, while the demand entered the seasonal off-season, and the situation of loose supply and demand remained unchanged. In the futures market, the current futures contracts were all at a discount to the spot market. The purchasing and storage policy and the reduction in volume and weight by the breeding side brought a short-term rebound, which was still regarded as a rebound market. In the medium and long term, it was still affected by the off-season demand and loose supply and demand, and was likely to be weak. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the future purchasing and storage policy [10]. Group 3: Industry News - As of May this year, the inventory of breeding sows in sample farms was 1.147 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 0.92% and a year-on-year increase of 8.57% [11][13]. Group 4: Data Overview - As of May, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.315 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 1.32% and a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [18]. - In early June, the average proportion of secondary fattening sales was 0.75%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous ten days [18]. - As of the week of June 19th, the average slaughter weight nationwide was 128.28 kg, a decrease of 0.54 kg from the previous week, a month-on-month decrease of 0.42% [18]. - In early June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 38.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous ten days. The price difference between 150 kg fat pigs and standard pigs in the week of June 19th was 0.07 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous week [18].

Core Viewpoint - The recent pork futures market shows a slight increase in prices due to government reserve policies, although the long-term supply-demand situation remains loose [1] Supply Side - The planned slaughter volume for June is 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase from May's actual slaughter [1] - The number of breeding sows in sample farms is 1.147 million heads, a 0.92% increase month-on-month and an 8.57% increase year-on-year [1] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered in the week ending June 13 is 128.82 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg from the previous week [1] Demand Side - The average price of external three-yuan pigs is 14.23 yuan/kg, a slight increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] - The utilization rate of fattening pens is 38.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points week-on-week [1] - The demand from slaughter enterprises remains weak, with a general order volume and low operating rates [1] Policy Impact - On June 11, the central government conducted a reserve auction for 10,000 tons of frozen pork, with transaction prices ranging from 20.3 to 20.8 yuan/kg [1] - The reserve policy is expected to stabilize pork prices and boost market confidence in the short term [1] - The futures contracts are currently trading at a discount to the spot market, indicating a short-term rebound due to the reserve policy, but long-term demand remains weak [1]

农产品日报 | 2025-06-18 出栏略有减少，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13815元/吨，较前交易日变动+35.00元/吨，幅度+0.25%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.28元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+465，较前交易日变动-35；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 14.63元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.05元/公斤，现货基差LH09+815，较前交易日变动+15；四川 地区外三元生猪价格13.98元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH09+165，较前交易日变动-35。 据农业农村部监测，6月17日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.83，与昨天持平，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数为112.86， 与昨天持平。截至今日14:00时，全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.23元/公斤，比昨天下降0.7%；牛肉63.54 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.1%；羊肉59.46元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；鸡蛋7.25元/公斤，比昨天下降0.4%；白条鸡16.89 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.8%。 市场分析 综 ...

生猪产业日报 2025-06-17 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 13815 | 35 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 78433 | 927 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 750 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -11587 | -465 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 14200 | 200 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 14100 | 10 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of live pigs rebounded, with the main contract rising 2.45% weekly. The supply pressure is expected to increase in the medium - term as the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the second and third quarters. High temperatures suppress the willingness to purchase pork, and consumption has entered a seasonal off - peak, making it difficult to support prices. Although policies and rising feed raw materials boost the sentiment of the futures market, weak demand restricts the increase of spot prices and the basis weakens rapidly, which may limit the upside space of the futures market. It is expected that the live pig price will fluctuate, and the strategy suggestion is to wait and see [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The live pig price rebounded, and the main contract rose 2.45% weekly [6][9]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply - side: The current slaughter rhythm is normal, and the average slaughter weight is decreasing. In the medium - term, supply pressure will increase. Demand - side: High temperatures reduce pork purchasing willingness, the terminal sales slow down, the slaughterhouse operating rate drops continuously, and consumption is in a seasonal off - peak. Overall, policies and rising feed raw materials boost the futures price, but weak demand restricts the spot price increase, and the basis weakens rapidly, which may limit the upside of the futures market. It is expected that the live pig price will fluctuate [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Temporarily wait and see [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price rebounded this week, and the main contract rose 2.45% weekly [7][9]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of June 13, the net short position of the top 20 holders in live pig futures was 11,126 lots, an increase of 2,144 lots from last week. The number of futures warehouse receipts was 750, an increase of 275 from last week [15]. Spot Market - **Basis**: The basis of the live pig July contract this week was 705 yuan/ton, and the basis of the September contract was 210 yuan/ton [19]. - **Prices of Live Pigs and Piglets**: The national average price of live pigs this week was 14.38 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan/kg from last week and a decrease of 2.04% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 38.28 yuan/kg, a decrease of 3.86 yuan/kg from last week and a decrease of 15.69% from last month [26]. - **Pork and Sows' Prices**: As of June 5, the national average price of pork was 25.49 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [31]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of the week of June 24, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.29, a decrease of 0.02 from the previous week, and it was below the break - even point [35]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In April 2025, the national inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous month, an increase of 1.31% year - on - year, and equivalent to 103.6% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, in May, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.33% month - on - month and 4.26% year - on - year; the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms increased slightly by 0.03% month - on - month and 8.07% year - on - year [40]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q1 2023, the national live pig inventory was 417.31 million, a decrease of 10.12 million from the end of the previous quarter and an increase of 8.81 million year - on - year. According to Mysteel data, in May, the live pig inventory in 123 large - scale farms was 35.6403 million, an increase of 0.45% month - on - month and 5.75% year - on - year; the inventory in 85 small and medium - sized farms was 1.4438 million, an increase of 0.82% month - on - month and 8.07% year - on - year [43]. - **Live Pig Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In May, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 10.5986 million, a decrease of 2.38% month - on - month and an increase of 12.35% year - on - year; the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 0.4896 million, a decrease of 1.48% month - on - month and an increase of 73.46% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary live pigs this week was 123.96 kg, a slight decrease of 0.16 kg from last week [46]. Industry - **Breeding Profits**: As of June 13, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding reported a loss of 210.64 yuan/head, a decrease of 89.84 yuan/head compared to the previous week; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was a loss of 2.9 yuan/head, a decrease of 36.72 yuan/head compared to the previous week. The profit of poultry breeding was - 0.55 yuan/head, and the weekly loss decreased by 0.11 yuan/head [51]. - **Pork Imports**: From January to April 2025, China imported 360,000 tons of pork in total, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, but it was at a historically low level [56]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of June 13, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.0 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of the week of June 12, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs in the country was - 0.21 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg compared to last week [59]. - **Feed Situation**: As of June 13, the spot price of soybean meal was 2968 yuan/ton, an increase of 27.71 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2405.1 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.26 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 962.11, an increase of 1.61% from last week; the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.36 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from last week. As of April 2025, the monthly feed production was 26.64 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.132 million tons [65][69][74]. - **CPI**: As of May 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the decline rate was the same as last month [77]. Downstream - **Slaughter and Consumption**: In the 24th week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 27.22%, a decrease of 1.68 percentage points from last week and 4.45 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of this Thursday, the frozen product storage capacity of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 17.34%, an increase of 0.02% from last week. As of April 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 30.77 million, an increase of 0.46% from the previous month. In April 2025, the national catering revenue was 416.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% [80][85]. 4. Live Pig Stocks The report mentions two live pig - related stocks: Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [86].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase gradually by September, and the pig price is prone to fall and difficult to rise under abundant supply. The reduction of the slaughter weight by farmers will put pressure on the pig price, but the strength of the price difference between 150kg pigs and standard pigs needs attention. The LH2509 contract price is in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - **Main Contract Basis Situation**: Against the background of falling spot prices, the main contract (LH2509) of live pigs adjusted weakly. When the pig price accelerated its decline in the later part of the week, the decline of the LH2509 contract was limited [2]. - **Price Changes of Each Contract**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **Inter - monthly Spread Changes**: Against the background of weak spot prices, the spreads of some contracts showed reverse arbitrage trends [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **Pig Price and Slaughter Volume**: The decrease in slaughter volume and the fall in pig prices indicate that the supply exceeds the demand, leading to the decline of pig prices [14]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The price in Henan region dropped significantly [16]. - **Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs**: The price difference between 150kg pigs and standard pigs adjusted strongly. If it continues to strengthen, it may weaken the farmers' willingness to reduce the weight of pigs [18]. - **Fresh Sales and Gross - to - Net Price Difference**: The terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **Related Product Price Ratios and Fresh - Frozen Price Difference**: The cost - performance of pork is average. There is almost no fresh - frozen price difference for No. 2 meat, and fresh products will replace frozen products, increasing the demand for live pigs [22]. - **Farming Profit**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening is slightly positive [24]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The slaughter weight decreased slowly, and it will take some time to release the previous inventory pressure [26]. 3. Production Capacity End - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: At the end of April, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.38 million, with a flat month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. According to different data sources, the inventory of reproductive sows continued to increase in May [28]. - **Sow Culling Situation**: The price of culled sows was weak this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in May but remained at a low level [30]. - **Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets**: In May, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 2.91% month - on - month, corresponding to a continuous increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in October this year [32]. - **Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm**: The price of 15kg piglets continued to fall this week, and the price of 50kg binary sows was stable with a weak trend [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Profit**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In April, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.77 million, with a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. The frozen product market gradually changed from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and its impact on pig prices changed from bullish to neutral - bearish [36]. 5. Import End In April 2025, the pork import volume was about 79,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively small [39].

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 06 月 09 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2：样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，6 日生猪主力 2509 合约 ...