生猪期货

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建信期货生猪日报-20250416
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-04-15 23:48
行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 04 月 16 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F0230741 研究员:洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号:F3076808 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1:全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2:样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 数据来源:涌益,建信期货研究中心 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员:林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:刘悠然 升水修复,重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 数据来源:涌益,建信期货研究中心 生猪行情: 期货方面,15 日生猪主力 2 ...
生猪周报:现货逐渐转弱,期价承压下跌-2025-03-31
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-03-31 04:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term prices will fluctuate at a low level, and there is a possibility of new lows in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - Pig prices are unlikely to rise significantly due to abundant supply in the first half of 2025, but short - term sharp declines are also unlikely as there may be secondary fattening when prices approach 14 yuan/kg. The 2505 contract price is in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures End 3.1.1 Main Contract Basis - In the context of weakening spot prices and a pessimistic market outlook for April pig prices, the price of the LH2505 contract fluctuated downward this week [2]. - On March 28, 2025, the benchmark ground (Henan) had a base price of 14.53 yuan/kg, and the main contract basis was 1305 yuan/ton [3]. 3.1.2 Price Changes of Each Contract - Far - month contracts continued to fluctuate widely [5]. 3.1.3 Inter - monthly Spread Changes - Affected by the weakening of spot prices, the reverse spread trend of the 5 - 7 and 5 - 9 contracts was obvious in the latter part of the week [7][10]. 3.2 Spot End 3.2.1 Pig Prices and Slaughter Volumes - This week, the slaughter volume began to decline, and pig prices fell in the latter part of the week [13]. 3.2.2 Regional Spreads - The spreads among selected regions were within a relatively reasonable range [15]. 3.2.3 Fat - Standard Price Spreads - The fat - standard price spread continued to decline, which would stimulate farmers to slow down weight gain or even reduce weight [17]. 3.2.4 Fresh Sales and Gross - to - Net Price Spreads - Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [19]. 3.2.5 Related Product Price Ratios and Fresh - Frozen Spreads - Beef prices have risen recently, increasing the cost - effectiveness of pork [21]. 3.2.6 Breeding Profits - Self - breeding and self - fattening remained profitable, while purchased piglet fattening was slightly profitable [23]. 3.2.7 Slaughter Weights - The slaughter weight continued to increase this week, but the growth rate slowed down [25]. 3.3 Capacity End 3.3.1 Reproductive Sow Inventory - In January, the national reproductive sow inventory was 40.62 million heads, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In February, the reproductive sow inventory in relevant samples continued to increase [27]. 3.3.2 Sow Culling Situation - The price of culled sows remained stable this week, and the slaughter volume of culled sows increased slightly month - on - month in February [30]. 3.3.3 Sow Production Efficiency and Newborn Healthy Piglet Numbers - In February, the number of newborn healthy piglets was basically stable month - on - month, corresponding to an increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in July and stable numbers in August [32]. 3.3.4 Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm - The price of 15 - kg piglets continued to rise this week due to increased enthusiasm among farmers for replenishment as the weather warmed up. The price of 50 - kg binary sows remained stable [34]. 3.4 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume increased month - on - month. In January, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 38.16 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. Some slaughterhouses carried out segmentation and warehousing operations, which supported pig prices [36]. 3.5 Import End - In February 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous month. The current scale of pork imports has a limited impact on domestic pig prices [39].
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-2025-03-25
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-03-25 01:34
另存为PDF 生猪日报 | 2025-03-25 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 3、主力合约(LH2505)今日减仓4565手,持仓量约7.24万手,最高价13500元/ 吨,最低价13365元/吨,收盘于13475元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看,3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加,仔猪数据看2025年上 半年生猪出栏量或逐月增加;需求端来看,上半年较下半年相比属消费淡季; 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看,肥标差继续回落; 3、市场多空逻辑: 空头:①2025年上半年生猪出栏量仍有增加空间,出栏压力 仍存;②现在养殖端仍在增重,实则利空后市猪价。多头:①近期猪价表现较 坚挺;②盘面贴水大,做多有性价比。 【策略建议】 作者: 史香迎 生猪研究员 1、观点:短期猪价或低位震荡,中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能; 2、核心逻辑: 1) 从仔猪数据看,2025年上半年生猪出栏量或逐月增加(不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏),猪价暂无大涨基础; 2)现下猪肉消费进入淡季,需求对猪价的支撑弱; 3)虽然我们认为中长期看现货仍有新低可能,但由于其不确定性较高,且现货 近期表现较为坚挺,建议暂时观望。 期货从业资 ...