瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.04.25」 甲醇市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 策略建议： MA2509合约短期建议在2250-2330区间交易。 3 行情回顾：本周国内甲醇市场震荡整理运行。内地甲醇下游近期存节前备货需求，对市场氛围存 一定支撑，企业出货顺畅，但对高价仍存观望心态，市场价格变动有限；沿海甲醇市场由于货源 倒流套利空间开启，支撑沿海现货提货。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇检修、减产涉及产能产出量多于恢复涉及产能产出量，整体产量小幅减 少。由于部分检修装置仍未恢复生产，叠加部分一体化装置持续消耗自身库存，企业库存继续低 位运行，部分企业挺价惜售，但下游对高价有所抵触，采购积极性转弱。本周华东江苏地区主流 社会库提货大增，浙江地区维持刚需稳定消耗，华南地区主流库区提货量亦维持偏高水平，国内 甲醇港口库存整体大幅去库。需求方面，本周陕西蒲城烯烃装置恢复正常运行，斯尔邦和内蒙宝 丰一期装置延续停车状态，烯烃行业开工依然小幅回落。 「 期货市场情况」 甲醇期货价格走势 目录 1、周度要点 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-04-21甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口方面，虽然目前港口库存依然偏低，不过后续供应面提升预期下对市场走势存一定压制，基差走弱相 对明显，短期港口市场或偏弱震荡为主，另需关注宏观面变化影响；内地方面，供应面尚存一定利好，然目前内地价格 偏高，贸易商追涨谨慎，加之部分港口货量倒流至山东局部地区，或对内地局部市场存一定冲击，短期内地市场不排除 转弱可能。另需持续关注节前下游备货情况及宏观外围变化等影响；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为2400元/吨，09合约基差134，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：截至2025年4月17日，华东、华南港口甲醇社会库 ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Methanol Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: April 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - The domestic methanol market shows a pattern of strong inland and weak coastal areas this week, with the price difference between ports and inland narrowing significantly [6] - Recently, the output of domestic methanol from maintenance and production - cut related capacities is more than that from restored capacities, leading to a slight decrease in overall production. Although some units are resuming production, enterprise inventories remain low due to order execution. Port inventories have slightly increased this week and are expected to decrease slightly next week [6] - The operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry has decreased this week [6] - It is recommended to trade the MA2509 contract in the range of 2200 - 2300 in the short term [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: Domestic methanol producers raised prices for shipment, the inland market was strong, while the coastal market was under pressure from supply increase expectations, with overall port market being weak [6] - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production decreased slightly, enterprise inventories remained low, port inventories increased slightly this week and are expected to decrease next week. The operating rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry decreased [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade the MA2509 contract in the range of 2200 - 2300 in the short term [6] 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 1.9% [9] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of April 18, the MA 5 - 9 spread was 80 [13] - **Position Analysis**: As of April 17, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 7656, an increase of 500 from last week [19] 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of April 18, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2430 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia in the northwest was 2262.5 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and the northwest was 167.5 yuan/ton, down 177.5 yuan/ton from last week [25] - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of April 17, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 267 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 76 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton from last week [31] - **Domestic Basis**: As of April 18, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 164 yuan/ton, up 48.5 yuan/ton from last week [35] 3.4 Industrial Chain Analysis - **Upstream**: As of April 16, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of April 17, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.25 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.26 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [38] - **Industry**: As of April 17, China's methanol production was 1,950,515 tons, a decrease of 11,030 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 87.37%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. As of April 16, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 585,600 tons, an increase of 15,800 tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 312,400 tons, a decrease of 0.60% from the previous period; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 274,400 tons, an increase of 7.80% from the previous period. In February 2025, China's methanol imports were 561,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46.10%. From January to February 2025, the cumulative imports were 1,604,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.52%. As of April 17, the methanol import profit was 88.01 yuan/ton, down 14.78 yuan/ton from last week [41][44][49] - **Downstream**: As of April 17, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 83.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.15%. As of April 18, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 474 yuan/ton, an increase of 313 yuan/ton from last week [52][55] 3.5 Option Market Analysis - Not provided in the report

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-04-15甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 1、基本面：目前市场对贸易冲突担忧仍存，国际原油再度回落，或利空甲醇期货走势，预计短期甲醇市场维持震荡概 率大，需持续关注宏观方面消息变动及烯烃装置变动等；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为2530元/吨，05合约基差154，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：截至2025年4月10日，华东、华南港口甲醇社会库存总量为48.49万吨，较上周期降2.14万吨；沿海地区（江苏、 浙江和华南地区）甲醇整体可流通货源降2.48万吨至30.12万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在均线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：预计 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the domestic methanol market mainly declined. In the inland market, the supply shortage in some areas eased, leading to price drops. In the coastal market, due to the weak macro - environment and changes in some coastal olefin plants, market sentiment weakened, and prices fell accordingly [7]. - Recently, the output of restored methanol production capacity in China exceeded that of overhauled and reduced - capacity production, resulting in a slight increase in overall output. Some inland plants were overhauled as scheduled, and with active long - term contract pick - ups, some enterprises' inventories dropped to low levels. This week, the unloading speed of foreign vessels was lower than expected, causing a significant reduction in methanol port inventories. However, as imports may gradually increase, the change in port methanol inventories next week is expected to be limited [7]. - In terms of demand, most enterprise plants have been operating stably recently. The load of enterprises in East China has been slightly adjusted. This week, the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry increased slightly month - on - month. Under the background of low profits, some coastal plants are expected to shut down [7]. - The short - term MA2505 contract may continue to seek support, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights - Market decline: Inland supply shortage eased, prices declined; coastal market sentiment weakened due to macro - environment and olefin plant changes [7]. - Supply outlook: Output increased slightly; inland inventories decreased, and port inventories decreased significantly this week with limited expected change next week [7]. - Demand outlook: Stable operation of most plants, a slight increase in the operating rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry, and expected shutdown of some coastal plants due to low profits [7]. - Strategy: Wait and see for the MA2505 contract [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price movement: The price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a decline of 3.42% [10]. - Spread: As of April 3, the MA 5 - 9 spread was 78 [15]. - Warehouse receipts: As of April 2, there were 7,673 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 985 from last week [21]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic prices: As of April 3, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2,592 yuan/ton, a decrease of 103 yuan/ton from last week; in Northwest Inner Mongolia, it was 2,145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and the Northwest was 447.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42.5 yuan/ton from last week [27]. - International prices: As of April 2, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 290 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 15 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12 US dollars/ton from last week [33]. - Basis: As of April 3, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 127.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton from last week [38]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Coal and gas prices: As of April 2, the market price of Qinhuangdao 5500 - calorie thermal coal was 685 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.02 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.07 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Production and operating rate: As of April 3, China's methanol production was 1,873,995 tons, an increase of 54,650 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 86.21%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00% [44]. - Inventory: As of April 2, the total methanol port inventory in China was 616,100 tons, a decrease of 157,700 tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 311,500 tons, a decrease of 16,200 tons or 4.95% from the previous period; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 223,300 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons or 5.43% from the previous period [48]. - Import: In February 2025, China's methanol imports were 561,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46.10%. From January to February 2025, the cumulative methanol imports were 1,604,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.52%. As of April 2, the methanol import profit was 60.45 yuan/ton, an increase of 25.5 yuan/ton from last week [51]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Operating rate: As of April 3, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 87.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04% [54]. - Profit: As of April 3, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 814 yuan/ton, an increase of 305 yuan/ton from last week [57].