1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market in June is expected to have a certain downward pressure in the short term due to disturbing factors, but the bottom is relatively solid, and subsequent market trends will likely be mainly structural. Institutions suggest using dividend assets as the base position and also considering growth and consumption sectors. They are optimistic about banks, the computing power industry chain, card-based collectibles, and innovative drugs [6]. - The Chinese economy in the second quarter is expected to continue a stable trend under the continuous efforts of growth-stabilizing policies, but the foundation for economic recovery needs to be consolidated, and policies need to be further strengthened [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - The US accused China of violating the consensus of the Geneva economic and trade talks. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce firmly rejected the unreasonable accusation, urging the US to correct its wrong actions and jointly maintain the consensus [6]. - The EU expressed regret over the US decision to raise steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% starting from June 4th, which increases economic uncertainty across the Atlantic. Negotiations between the two sides are ongoing [6]. - China's manufacturing PMI in May increased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month, and the export container freight rate index rebounded. Experts believe that the Chinese economy in the second quarter is expected to maintain a stable trend, but policy support is still needed [7]. - The Chinese logistics industry showed strong resilience in the first four months of the year, with the total social logistics volume reaching 115.3 trillion yuan from January to April, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [7]. - During the Dragon Boat Festival, the estimated cross-regional passenger flow in China reached 6.57 billion person-times, with an average daily flow of 2.19 billion person-times, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [7]. - The "involutionary" competition in the automotive industry has led to a continuous decline in the profit margin of the industry, from 4.3% in 2024 to 3.9% in the first quarter of this year, and may also affect the quality of parts [8]. 3.2 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The peanut spot market has stabilized after a rise. The demand from traders and oil mills is weakening. The spot market has strong bottom support, but the futures market is expected to be weak and volatile [11]. - Oils: The trading volume of oils decreased on May 30th. The palm oil export from Malaysia in May increased by 17.9% compared to the same period last month, and about 17% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought. The oil market lacks new positive drivers and is expected to be weak and volatile [11]. - Sugar: On May 30th, the sugar futures main contract showed a narrow and weak trend. The supply in Brazil has improved, and the international raw sugar has rebounded. The domestic spot price is stable, but the increase in imports is suppressing market sentiment. It is recommended to maintain a short-term bearish view [11]. - Corn: On May 30th, the corn main contract showed a trend of increasing prices with decreasing positions. The supply in the northern ports is still high, and the demand is affected by wheat substitution. Technically, it is necessary to pay attention to the resistance level at 2340 yuan. It is recommended to try long positions lightly with support at 2330 yuan [11]. - Hogs: During the Dragon Boat Festival, the hog price in China remained stable. The price in the north may weaken due to the recovery of supply, and the price in the south has limited room for decline or increase. The futures main contract is oscillating around 13,500 [11][13]. - Eggs: During the Dragon Boat Festival, the egg spot price remained stable. After the festival, the demand is expected to weaken, and the price will be under pressure. The futures market still faces mid - term capacity pressure [13]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic urea market price is stable. The daily production is high, and the inventory of upstream enterprises is increasing. The demand for summer fertilizers is approaching the end, but there is still replenishment demand. The price is under short - term pressure but supported by export expectations [13]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong and the warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange remained unchanged on May 30th. The supply in Shandong is expected to decrease in June, and the market in East China is expected to be firm. The caustic soda 2509 contract continues to operate at a low level [13]. - Coking Coal: The supply of coking coal and coke is sufficient, and the terminal demand is seasonally weakening. The price of coking coal auctions is falling, and the price of coke is expected to decline further. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be under pressure and weaken [13][15]. 3.2.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: On May 30th, the spot prices of copper and aluminum decreased. The copper and aluminum inventories are decreasing, but the overseas tariff risk still exists, and the prices are expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate [15]. - Alumina: On May 30th, the spot price of alumina increased slightly. The production capacity is recovering, and the supply pressure is easing. The domestic import window is gradually opening. The spot price is firm, but there is an expectation of medium - term oversupply. The alumina 2509 contract rebounds from a low level and may fluctuate around 3000 [15]. - Steel: During the holiday, the tariff risk continued, and the market sentiment was affected. The trading volume of steel decreased, and the supply - demand structure may weaken. The steel price is expected to be under pressure and weaken after the festival [15]. - Ferroalloys: The fundamentals of ferroalloys changed little last week, but the prices were weak. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is not strong, and it is recommended not to chase short positions. The cost of silicomanganese is falling, and the supply - demand of alloys is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the overall trend of the black series [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: On May 30th, the lithium carbonate futures main contract showed an oscillating upward trend, but the trading volume decreased. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is close to the low - level range this year, and the volatility is increasing. It is recommended to operate within the range of 59,000 - 60,500 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index: On May 30th, the A - share market adjusted, and the trading volume exceeded 1.1 trillion yuan. The European and American stock markets had mixed performances on Monday. The impact of the previous tariff friction on the market has been digested, and the market may have short - term structural fluctuations. The large - cap stocks may be relatively dominant in the future. The technology sector is worth attention. It is recommended to participate in long positions around the gap on May 7th and consider selling straddle options [19][20][21]. - Options: On May 29th, the A - share market rose, and the trading volume increased. The basis of stock index futures decreased, and the implied volatility of options changed. Trend investors are advised to defend, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddle options after the volatility decreases [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In 2025Q1, the overall performance of fixed - income + funds was mediocre, with a median yield of 0.29%. The scale of fixed - income + funds increased significantly, and their proportion in broad - based bond funds rose by 2 percentage points. The growth was mainly contributed by moderately convertible bond - enhanced and stock - enhanced products. High - performing products over - allocated technology stocks and manufacturing - related convertible bonds, and some leading products showed strong scale expansion capabilities [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025Q1 Fixed - income + Scale Proportion Significantly Rebounded - The performance of fixed - income + funds grew steadily in 2025Q1. The total scale increased to 138.0734 billion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 15.6029 billion yuan. The proportion in broad - based bond funds rose by 2 percentage points, the first significant rebound since 2022Q1, indicating market favor [2]. - The growth in scale was mainly contributed by moderately convertible bond - enhanced and stock - enhanced products. In 2025Q1, the scale of moderately convertible bond - enhanced, stock - enhanced, and convertible bond funds increased. The moderately convertible bond - enhanced scale increased by 9.4608 billion yuan, the stock - enhanced scale by 6.6139 billion yuan, and the convertible bond fund scale by 0.3438 billion yuan compared to 2024Q4 [2]. 3.2 High - performing Products Over - allocated Technology Stocks & Manufacturing - related Convertible Bonds 3.2.1 High - performing Funds' Convertible Bond Positions Were Highly Differentiated - Among stock - enhanced funds, high - performing products had an average yield of 1.54% in 2025Q1. Guotai Shuangli Bond had the highest yield of 5.49%, and Nongyin Ruikang 6 - month Holding had a yield of 2.52%. The average scale of high - performing stock - enhanced funds was 4.688 billion yuan, with 3 products exceeding 10 billion yuan [26]. - In terms of stock and convertible bond positions, the stock positions of high - performing stock - enhanced funds were mostly between 10% - 20%, with an average of 15.65%. The convertible bond positions varied greatly, with 3 products having over 10% and 7 products having less than 1% [27]. - Among convertible bond - enhanced funds, high - performing products had an average yield of 3.13% in 2025Q1, outperforming stock - enhanced products. Jinying Yuanfeng ranked first with 7.81%, followed by Nanfang Guangli Return with 6.29%. Some high - performing products also had relatively large scales [31]. - High - performing convertible bond - enhanced funds showed significant differentiation in stock and convertible bond allocation strategies. The average stock position was 10.70%, and the average convertible bond position was 52.16% [32]. 3.2.2 Asset Allocation of High - performing Funds: Over - allocation of Technology Stocks and Balanced Convertible Bonds - High - performing funds had a pure - bond position of 46.2%, a stock position of 14.5%, and a convertible bond position of 23.1%. Their high returns came from over - allocating technology stocks, reducing financial stock positions, and over - allocating manufacturing - related and balanced convertible bonds [37]. - In terms of equity asset industry distribution, high - performing funds over - allocated technology stocks by 7.2 percentage points, cycle and pharmaceutical stocks by 3.3 and 0.5 percentage points respectively, and under - allocated financial stocks by 8.3 percentage points compared to the overall market [37]. - In terms of convertible bond industry distribution, high - performing funds over - allocated manufacturing - related convertible bonds. In terms of convertible bond types, they over - allocated balanced convertible bonds by 5.3 percentage points compared to the overall market [41]. 3.3 Leading Products Showed Strong Scale Expansion Capabilities - On average, 31.0% of stock - enhanced and 54.2% of convertible bond - enhanced funds achieved net scale growth. Some products had significant scale increases, such as Huaxia Wenxiang Zengli 6 - month Rolling in stock - enhanced funds and Zhongyin State - owned Enterprise Bond in convertible bond - enhanced funds [44]. - Many leading products had large scales. For example, E Fund Yuxiang Return in stock - enhanced funds and Invesco Great Wall Jingyi Shuangli in convertible bond - enhanced funds had large sizes [45]. - By fund company, China Europe Fund had the fastest - growing fixed - income + fund scale, with an increase of 15.461 billion yuan. After the scale changes, E Fund, Invesco Great Wall Fund, and Fullgoal Fund ranked in the top three in terms of the stock scale of fixed - income + products [48][50]. 3.4 Appendix 3.4.1 Fixed - income + Funds Increased Holdings of Financial Stocks, and the Duration of Pure Bonds Narrowed - In 2025Q1, the pure - bond position of fixed - income + funds rebounded, while the convertible bond position decreased. The proportion of pure bonds increased by 1.4 percentage points, stocks by 0.4 percentage points, and convertible bonds decreased by 1.6 percentage points quarter - on - quarter [53]. - In terms of equity holdings, the proportion of financial stocks increased by 2.2 percentage points, while cycle and manufacturing stocks decreased by 2.1 and 1.8 percentage points respectively compared to 2024Q4 [56]. - In terms of convertible bond holdings, fixed - income + funds increased holdings of manufacturing and cycle convertible bonds and decreased holdings of financial convertible bonds. The proportion of balanced convertible bonds increased by 5.4 percentage points [59][60]. - In terms of pure - bond holdings, the position of financial bonds increased, while the positions of interest - rate and credit bonds decreased. The weighted average duration of pure bonds narrowed by 0.88 years quarter - on - quarter [65]. 3.4.2 Introduction to Fund Classification Method - The classification is mainly based on the average stock investment ratio, average convertible bond investment ratio, and other data. For funds that can invest in stocks, those with an average stock investment ratio greater than 20% are excluded, and different types of fixed - income + and pure - bond funds are classified according to specific rules [70]. - For funds that cannot buy stocks, they are classified into pure - bond and convertible bond - enhanced funds based on the average convertible bond investment ratio [71]. - Funds with "convertible bond" in their names are classified as convertible bond funds [72].

先说个资金面的大事。 中国公募基金行业 新一轮 变革 重头戏来了，首批浮动费率基金正式获批发行。 这次的变革核心在哪呢？ 简单来说，就是基金公司要凭自己真本事赚钱了，只有给客户创造的收益高，才有资格多拿管理费。 至于那些创造不了收益的，不好意思，只能拿到最低的费率水平。 我看了具体的动态调整的标准，还挺有意思的。 浮动费率，是根据基民持有的第一年业绩，从第二年开始，把管理费分为 基准、升档、降档 三个标准。 这样来看，还是挺严的，而对做不过指数的惩罚比对奖励要狠。 这就意味着，天然要求公募基金更贴着指数做，长期看，沪深300权重股为代表的中盘和大盘股自然会受 到更多的青睐，也能一定程度上扭转炒小炒烂的市场风气。 接下来公募基金行业的玩法就开始转变了，那些发被动ETF基金还能活的相对滋润，而之前光在营销上面 卷，没有赚钱能力的主动管理基金就要比较难了。 赚不到钱，自然就会被市场淘汰，这和新能源车的淘汰赛本质上是一回事，公募基金行业的新一轮大洗牌 开始了。 今天板块涨得最好的是珠宝首饰。 | 持有时间 | 管理费(年费率) | | --- | --- | | 0-1年 | 1.20%/年 持有期间年化收益率(R) ...

Core Viewpoint - DeepSeek is expected to release its R2 model, but as of now, only a minor upgrade to the R1 model has been announced, leading to speculation about the company's future impact on the tech stock market [1][3]. Group 1: DeepSeek Model Updates - DeepSeek has completed a minor version upgrade of the R1 model, which can now be tested on its official website, app, and mini-programs, while the API interface remains unchanged [1]. - The R1 model, released in January, outperformed Western competitors on several standardized metrics and was developed at a cost of only a few million dollars, causing a significant drop in global tech stocks [2]. - There are rumors that the upcoming R2 model may have a staggering parameter scale of 1.2 trillion, nearly double that of the R1 model's 671 billion parameters, but these claims have not been officially confirmed [3]. Group 2: Industry Adoption and Expansion - Despite a decline in DeepSeek's popularity, its technology is being adopted across various sectors, including education and government services, with notable implementations in Tibet and by companies like Luckin Coffee [4]. - The launch of the "藏大智言" DeepSeek platform by Tibet University and the deployment of DeepSeek's model in local government services highlight its expanding influence [4]. - Companies like Zhongke Jiangnan are utilizing DeepSeek to develop AI assistants for financial services, indicating a growing trend of integrating AI into business operations [4]. Group 3: Broader Implications and Market Trends - DeepSeek's advancements are seen as a significant milestone in achieving efficient computation and low-cost training, potentially reshaping the global AI competitive landscape [5]. - The company’s strategy of open-source and cost-effective solutions aims to democratize technology and challenge the existing Western dominance in AI [5]. - Analysts suggest that sectors such as commercial aerospace, artificial intelligence, and renewable energy may become new market engines due to technological breakthroughs and policy support, with DeepSeek's developments playing a crucial role [6].

在行业调整期能够保持较好成长性的优质公司，未来有着更大的成长空间。 近期A股市场主要聚焦在两大主题，一是微盘股的抱团飙升，相关指数更是创出历史新高；二是红利股的稳定上涨。 今天（5月21日）早盘市场有所变化，微盘股出现一定调整，主要是因为ST板块的龙头*ST宇顺被停牌核查。红利板块表现较好，煤炭、保险、石 油等板块涨幅居前。 值得一提的是，市场较为关注的科技股近期整体表现不佳，结构性行情较为突出，比如这几天表现较好的创新药板块。另外，赛道股的核心—— 新能源龙头股有所表现，比亚迪、宁德时代两大龙头港股均创出历史新高。 比亚迪港股再创历史新高 早盘，比亚迪AH股均表现亮眼。其中A股再度突破400元/股，盘中创下404元/股的历史新高；港股一度大涨超4%并首次突破460港元/股，创出历史 新高，盘中最高价超464港元/股。截至5月20日收盘，比亚迪A股年内累计上涨近40%，港股累计涨幅接近67%。 随着股价的上涨，比亚迪的市值也水涨船高。截至5月20日收盘，该股总市值超过1.2万亿元，位居A股第八位。比亚迪作为知名大白马，曾以巴菲 特重仓而为大家所知。不过，巴菲特已减仓比亚迪港股，平均减持价格在250港元/股左右 ...

【导读】昨日股票ETF市场净流出资金64亿元，宽基ETF净流出居前 昨日（5月15日），三大股指收跌，当日股票ETF（含跨境ETF，下同）市场净流出资金约64亿元。其 中，宽基ETF净流出居前。 股票ETF单日净流出64亿元 数据显示，截至5月15日，全市场1089只股票ETF总规模达3.54万亿元。当日股票ETF市场总份额减少 41.33亿份，按照成交均价测算，当日净流出资金约为63.74亿元。 细分品类中，宽基ETF净流出居前，净流出53.37亿元。规模变化方面，宽基ETF规模下降296.85亿元。 具体到指数维度，5月15日沪深300指数单日净流出居前，达17.91亿元。 从单只基金看，上证50ETF单日净流出居前，达10.44亿元。沪深300ETF、中证A500ETF龙头等核心宽 基指数ETF均出现一定资金净流出。 业内表示，近期场内资金情绪虽有改善但在多重因素扰动下整体依然偏谨慎，因此一些资金开始对宽基 指数"获利了结"。 | | | | 5月15日股票ETF资金净流出排行 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排行 | 证券简称 ...

Macro Economic Analysis - The Chinese economy showed better-than-expected performance in Q1 2025, indicating a strong start to the year [1] - Policy measures are supporting commodity inflation, as reflected in the March price data [1] Trade Data Insights - The "export rush" is nearing its end, as indicated by the March import and export data [2] - The U.S. CPI inflation data for March reflects a brief period of calm in the overseas macroeconomic environment [2] Capital Market Overview - The bond market is experiencing a strong and volatile phase, suggesting opportunities for long-term bond fund investments [3] - U.S. tech stocks have faced significant setbacks, raising questions about the market's bottom [3] - Tariff pressures are causing dramatic fluctuations in both stock and bond markets [3] Industry Analysis - The pharmaceutical industry is accelerating its digital transformation, with AI technology playing a crucial role in this new journey [5] - Positive policy measures are contributing to stability in the A-share market [5] - Tariff expectations are being driven by policy responses, highlighting the need to monitor these developments [5] - Market volatility continues as the impact of tariffs temporarily eases [5] Weekly Outlook - Recent tariff measures have exceeded expectations, leading to a significant rise in risk-averse sentiment [6]

上天天基金APP搜索【777】领 98 元券包 ，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 中信证券：A股将继续呈现风偏回暖、主题轮动特征 展望5月，中信证券预计风险偏好还有回升空间，A股将继续呈现风偏回暖、主题轮动的特征，以低机构持仓 的主题型交易机会为主。但从经济层面来看，真实的影响已经悄然发生，中信证券预计中美经济在二季度尾声 可能会面临新的变数。 配置上，除了短期的热点主题轮动，中信证券依然建议聚焦三个不变的大趋势：一是中国自主科技能力的提升 趋势不会动摇；二是欧洲重建自主防务，提升能源、基建和资源储备的趋势不会动摇；三是中国势必要走 通"双循环"，加速完善社会保障并激发内需潜力是政策的必选项。 广发证券：景气投资回归 短期A股考虑三重因素：一是一些负面的一季报靴子落地；二是TMT反应度模型已经处于下限位置；三是国内 外大厂在大模型、算力芯片、端侧、AI应用的进展不断，5月—6月继续看好科技股的机会。 中期角度来说，回到三类资产对应的三个模型，在出现地产周期大反弹或科技应用大爆发之前，中长期对中性 股息组合保持关注。另外，考虑到国内科技大厂资本开支正在加大、产业链订单开始释放，景气成长组合以及 所代表 ...

贸易战将扩展到娱乐产业 2025 年五一假期期间，全球风险资产延续修复行情，其中中国资产领涨 。 美股纳指累计上涨 3.05% ，恒生科技指数飙升 3.08% ， A50 期指 小幅上扬 1% ，离岸人民币兑美元升值至 7.2 关口 。 科技股引领全球反弹 。 微软财报超预期带动纳斯达克"科技七巨头"集体走强，半导体、云计算板块领涨。腾讯、阿里巴巴受益美科技股涨势，恒 生科技指数单日涨幅创三个月新高，短视频、跨境电商概念活跃。对于 A 股，业内人士认为明 日或高开后分化，看好银行、高速公路等红利资 产。 美方主动向中方传递信息希望谈起来 中方回应：正在评估 中方注意到美方高层多次表态，表示愿与中方就关税问题进行谈判。同时，美方近期通过相关方面多次主动向中方传递信息，希望与中方谈起来。对此， 中方正在进行评估。中方立场始终如一，打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。关税战、贸易战是由美方单方发起的，美方想谈就应拿出谈的诚意，要在纠正错 误做法、取消单边加征关税等问题上做好准备，拿出行动。 特朗普宣布对进口电影征收 100% 关税 美国总统特朗普于 5 月 5 日宣布， 将授权美国商务部和美国贸易代表立即启动程序，对所有进 ...

二、从形态上看，人工智能以及科创板指数今天走势最为强势。 尤其是科创100指数，今天开始挑战60日线了。就看五一长假期间有没有科技股的利好消息了，要是有的话，说不定长假之后，科技股就能迎来全面行情。 虽然今天就拉了这么一下，效果看起来一般，但这不重要。关键是我们得想想未来：要是保险资金持续投资中证A500指数成分股，那是不是意味着市场科 技风格有希望了呢？ 一、中美贸易战突变！美财长贝森特：美国已暂时搁置与中方的贸易谈判，缓和关税争端的主动权在中方。要是美国还想着用勒索、敲诈那一套对付我们， 那他们可得等了，我们肯定不会去谈判桌那儿凑热闹。 情况突然变了，美国期待的"良好行为"看来是没戏了。要是想给贸易战找个出路，美国只有一条路：取消那些不合理的恶意关税！数据出来后，美股一开始 大跌，但收盘前又拉起来了，除了纳斯达克，其他两大指数都红了。美股为啥这么强？其实原因就在这里：数据不好，川普肯定要逼着美联储降息，所以美 股最后才拉升。 三、从财报表现看半导体内部变迁。 四、沪指失守5日、10日均线，但在60小时均线（3268点）获得支撑。 我早就说了，业绩季哭着喊着不碰垃圾股，但过了"该炒还是要炒"，业绩不业绩没人 ...