大西洋上空的阴霾从未真正散去。7年前法国总统马克龙关于北约"脑死亡"的论断，如今由于美国总统 特朗普的回归而一语成谶。俄乌冲突刺激北约短暂"回光返照"，但终究难挡"美国优先"的致命暴击。随 着跨大西洋纽带被不断撕扯，北约这个"冷战余孽"再次走向"脑死亡"。 随着冷战结束、华约解体，北约失去存在的理由。为证明合法性，北约不得不通过"虚空索敌"来掩盖战 略方向上的迷茫，维系内部虚假团结。但这种以冷战思维制造新的阵营对立、依靠树立外敌的"续命游 戏"，同时代潮流相悖。更讽刺的是，随着时间推移，北约臆想中的敌人正成为一个自我实现的预言。 乌克兰危机导致俄罗斯同北约矛盾成为难解死结，加剧双方安全困境。北约无法保证欧洲大陆的长治久 安，反倒成为地缘动荡的源头，将欧洲拖向"战争不能停"的深渊。这种存在逻辑的先天悖论，注定北约 要不断制造冲突和敌人。 在美国眼中，盟友不再是战略伙伴，而是"血包"。特朗普毫不掩饰对盟友主权、领土完整、政治尊严的 蔑视，多次声称"让加拿大成为美国第51个州""拿下格陵兰岛"，引发"北约国家攻击北约国家该怎么 办"的荒诞戏码。英法德等北约盟国向格陵兰岛派遣军事人员以示对丹麦和格陵兰岛的支持，但在美 ...

最近美国那边可真是热闹非凡。 一份民调像颗炸弹，说居然有四分之一的美国人支持美军打击中国本土目标。 这疯狂念头怎么来的？ 不少人手指一戳，直 接指向了重新杀回白宫的特朗普。 他那套"美国优先"的狠话，把中国当靶子的做派，显然撩拨起了不少人的情绪。 但嚷嚷归嚷嚷，真动手？ 那可不是在推特上发个感叹号那么简单。 我们仔细扒了扒特朗普回来后的一系列操作，发现这"打击中国"的狂热呼声，恐怕只是 他四处点火政策下，最危险、也最不现实的一朵火花。 他正忙着在更多地方"引火烧身"，而且这火苗，眼看着就要窜回自己脚下了。 咱们先看看他最得意，也最混乱的经济牌。 特朗普一回来就祭出了"对等关税"的大杀器，宣称要对所有贸易伙伴加税。 这消息一出，全球市场先吓出一身 冷汗。 可这税怎么加、加多少，政策一天变三变，搞得美国自己的企业和投资者都晕头转向。 最戏剧性的是，他一边喊着强硬，一边又对某些产品搞"短暂豁免"。 这一通操作下来，美国的股市像是坐上了过山车，今天暴跌明天反弹，心脏不好的根 本受不了。 市场最怕的就是不确定性，特朗普偏偏制造了一大堆。 更让人瞠目结舌的是，这些政策变动，似乎总能精准地让某些人赚得盆满钵满。 就有那么一 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研究报告称，2026年1月30日，特朗普提名凯文·沃什为下一任美联储主 席。沃什主张通过"缩表+降息"来降低利率，并主张对美联储进行"体制性调整"，重建货币政策的可信 度。中金认为，沃什的"鹰派"主要体现在美联储资产负债表方面，而在降息方面则较为"鸽派"。特朗普 之所以提名他，不仅因为他倾向降低利率，也因其主张对建制派长期主导的货币政策框架进行重构，符 合特朗普"破旧立新"的政治叙事。 沃什还主张对美联储进行"体制性调整"(regime change)，重建货币政策的可信度与制度框架。他反对以 模型和前瞻指引为中心的操作框架，主张美联储停止预测利率路径，回归以结果为导向、具备高度裁量 空间的政策模式。他曾表示"美国民众不需要每周的进度通报，他们需要的是稳定的物价。经济并非可 以被简化为模型或机器，在快速变化的环境中，美联储必须拥有充分的自主空间来调整政策。" 沃什也推崇金融领域的美国优先，主张降低美国银行业巴塞尔协议复杂规则而受到的束缚。他也倡议对 整个"后多德—弗兰克法案"金融监管体系进行全面检视，尤其是在"廉价资金"时代的终结可能对银行的 流动性和偿付能力造成冲击背景下，美联储 ...

人民财讯2月2日电，中金指出，2026年1月30日，特朗普提名凯文·沃什为下一任美联储主席。沃什主张 通过"缩表+降息"来降低利率，并主张对美联储进行"体制性调整"，重建货币政策的可信度。中金认 为，沃什的"鹰派"主要体现在美联储资产负债表方面，而在降息方面则较为"鸽派"。特朗普之所以提名 他，不仅因为他倾向降低利率，也因其主张对建制派长期主导的货币政策框架进行重构，符合特朗 普"破旧立新"的政治叙事。短期来看，沃什的提名对降息路径影响有限，但可能导致美元流动性的预期 修正，美元贬值压力或阶段性缓和，由流动性推动的投机性资产将更易受到冲击。中期来看，沃什的主 张面临来自美联储内部、资本市场以及财政的约束，最终能否成功，还很难下定论。但与此同时，也不 应低估其政策调整的意愿。特朗普"美国优先"的政策思维，未来数年也可能在美联储的政策实践中逐步 显现。对于这一潜在变化，投资者也应未雨绸缪、有所准备。 ...

转自：法治日报 □ 本报记者 赵阳 当地时间1月27日，美国退出《巴黎协定》的程序正式生效，这个历史累计碳排放占全 球20%的国家，成为唯一一个两次退出该协定的国度。从2017年在特朗普首个任期内首次"退群"，到 2021年拜登政府时期仓促重返，再到2025年再度官宣退出，美国围绕《巴黎协定》上演的退出"戏码"， 早已超越气候政策本身的争议，沦为一场暴露"美国优先"霸权逻辑的政治闹剧，其"合则用、不合则 弃"的单边行径，正给全球气候治理带来难以愈合的创伤。 美国的"退群"决定，从来不是基于科学判断 的理性选择，而是国内政治利益算计的必然结果。2025年特朗普政府重启"退群"程序，背后清晰可见共 和党与化石能源行业的利益绑定——2024年总统选举中，化石能源巨头为特朗普阵营注入巨额政治献 金，而且传统能源行业的数百万从业者构成了其核心选票基本盘。这种"选票与金主绑定"的政治生态， 让美国政府毫不犹豫地将全人类的气候福祉让位于短期政治利益。 更值得警惕的是，美国的"退群"行 为具有明确的选择性标准。在特朗普扬言退出的66个国际组织及协定中，31个隶属于联合国框架，且多 集中在公共卫生、气候治理等"不能体现硬实力" ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how the "America First" policy under Donald Trump is leading to a perception of America becoming increasingly isolated, with allies feeling disappointed and seeking alternatives to their relationship with the U.S. [1][4] Group 1: U.S. Foreign Policy and Global Perception - Trump's administration has cut foreign aid, withdrawn from numerous multilateral institutions, and threatened military action, which has contributed to a negative perception of the U.S. globally [4][5] - A YouGov poll indicated that the proportion of British people with a negative view of the U.S. has doubled to 64% over the past two years, while 71% of Germans now see the U.S. as an "adversary" [5][6] - In Asia, about half of South Koreans view the U.S. as threatening and dishonest, reflecting a broader decline in America's reputation [7][8] Group 2: Impact on International Relations - The article highlights that many countries are reassessing their reliance on U.S. security guarantees, with discussions about developing their own military capabilities [9][10] - Trump's approach has led to a significant erosion of trust among allies, making it unlikely for them to rely on the U.S. as they did in the past [13][15] - The article notes that the negative sentiment towards the U.S. is not limited to Europe, as two-thirds of Canadians and Mexicans also hold unfavorable views [5][21] Group 3: Economic and Trade Implications - The article mentions that U.S. trade policies have prompted countries like Vietnam to diversify their customer base away from American buyers to mitigate risks from U.S. trade fluctuations [18][19] - The decline in American tourism is evident, with a 6% drop in visitors from Canada and Mexico, attributed to rising tensions and tariffs [18][19] - Countries that previously relied on U.S. markets are now seeking alternatives, as seen in the case of Canadian retailers promoting local products to avoid tariffs [18][19]

近日，美国宣布，由于韩国立法机构未能履行贸易协议中的法律程序，美国将韩国出口至美国的汽车、 木材、药品关税以及其他所谓"对等关税"的税率从15%提高至25%。这一决定标志着美韩贸易关系再次 陷入严峻对抗。 此次关税上调的核心争议在于韩国国会尚未通过旨在落实对美投资承诺的《对美投资特别法案》。根据 2025年达成的协议，韩国承诺向美国投资3500亿美元，作为交换，美国同意降低对韩关税。然而，美方 认为韩国在享受优惠后，在立法和投资执行层面表现迟缓，这种"不平衡"触发其惩罚性关税举措。 市场人士分析认为，从更深层次的角度审视，美国此次突然发难绝非孤立的贸易纠纷，而是其"美国优 先"政策的典型延续，背后交织着多重政治与经济意图。 突如其来的"关税炸弹"使韩国政府陷入窘境。韩国总统办公室政策室长金容范迅速召开了跨部门对策会 议，紧急商讨应对方案。韩国政府目前采取的策略可以概括为"多线并行"：一方面，紧急派遣产业通商 资源部长官金正官赴美，旨在直接会晤美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克，深入摸清美国政府的真实底 牌，并寻求外交斡旋空间。另一方面，韩国政府正试图向美方解释投资进度放缓的客观原因。韩国财政 经济部长官具润哲在接受 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the tensions between the U.S. and Canada regarding trade policies, particularly in the context of the upcoming review of the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) and the implications of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's recent statements on U.S. economic policies [4][6][7]. Group 1: U.S.-Canada Trade Relations - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin warned Canadian Prime Minister Carney against making provocative statements ahead of the USMCA review, suggesting that such comments could negatively impact negotiations [4]. - Carney criticized the U.S. for using economic integration as a "weapon," indicating a shift in Canada's stance towards seeking a more independent foreign policy [6][7]. - The U.S. is concerned that a potential Canada-China agreement could undermine its strategic interests, leading to increased pressure on Canada to align with U.S. policies [7]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Carney's remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos highlighted a perceived end to the "rules-based old order," which the U.S. views as a challenge to its influence [6][7]. - The U.S. is leveraging threats of tariffs as a negotiating tactic to ensure Canada remains aligned with its "America First" agenda, especially in light of the upcoming 2026 USMCA review [7].

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on French Wine Industry - The proposed 200% tariff on French wine by the Trump administration would significantly increase prices in the U.S. market, making it unaffordable for consumers [5][7] - French wine is a crucial export and cultural symbol for France, with the U.S. being a major market, making the impact of tariffs particularly severe [5][7] - The French wine industry has already faced declining export revenues due to market fatigue and cost pressures, and the additional tariffs would exacerbate these issues [7][8] Group 2: Employment and Economic Consequences - Analysts predict that the imposition of tariffs could threaten at least 100,000 jobs in the French wine sector, particularly affecting small family-owned wineries [8] - The production of wine is complex and relies on various factors, meaning that disruptions in any part of the supply chain could lead to broader economic consequences [7][8] Group 3: Political and Diplomatic Reactions - France's refusal to join Trump's peace committee reflects its desire to maintain its position in international politics and avoid being marginalized by U.S. dominance [11] - In response to the tariff threats, France is preparing a counter-list targeting U.S. agricultural products and other goods, while the EU is considering a €95 billion retaliation plan [13] - The internal division within the EU regarding how to respond to U.S. tariffs could lead to France facing the U.S. alone if it opts for a more aggressive stance [13] Group 4: Broader Implications for U.S.-France Relations - The situation illustrates a shift in the dynamics of U.S.-France relations, with tariffs being used as a tool for coercion rather than cooperation [17] - France is looking to strengthen ties with China as a potential alternative market for its wine exports, indicating a strategic pivot in response to U.S. pressures [17]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, has threatened Canadian Prime Minister Carney regarding his recent comments on U.S. trade policy, suggesting that these remarks could negatively impact the upcoming review of the USMCA, which aims to protect Canada from the significant impacts of Trump's tariff policies [1][3]. Group 1 - Carney expressed his views at the World Economic Forum in Davos, indirectly referring to the U.S. as a "great power" using economic integration as a "weapon" [3]. - Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian goods if Canada reached agreements with other countries [3]. - Mnuchin emphasized that he would not provoke disputes for political gain before the USMCA review, referencing the negative outcomes of bureaucrats transitioning to politicians [3]. Group 2 - Following a call between Trump and Carney, Mnuchin stated that Carney was attempting to retract some of his inappropriate comments made in Davos, although Carney later denied this, affirming that his criticisms of U.S. policies were valid [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the U.S. is exerting extreme pressure at this moment to convert tariff threats into leverage at the negotiation table, aiming to prevent Canada from pursuing a "balanced diplomacy" between the U.S. and China [4].