By Michael S. Derby (Reuters) -The Federal Reserve’s decision last month ​to announce a looming halt to the drawdown ‌of its balance sheet earlier than many had expected drew broad support ‌from central bankers, who also expressed interest in reweighting central bank holdings from longer-dated bonds toward Treasury bills, meeting minutes from the late October policy ⁠meeting released on Wednesday ‌said. “Many participants indicated that a greater share of Treasury bills could provide the ‍Federal Reserve ...

Group 1 - 80% of economic analysts predict the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December, a slight increase from the previous month [1] - Among 105 surveyed analysts, 84 expect the Federal Open Market Committee to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% [1] - Nearly half of the analysts anticipate rates will drop to a range of 3.25% to 3.50% in the next quarter [1] Group 2 - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic unexpectedly announced his retirement at the end of his term, amidst significant internal disagreements regarding interest rate decisions [2] - Bostic, who is 59 years old, has been associated with a hawkish stance focused on inflation control [2] - A search committee will be formed to select Bostic's successor, with the appointment requiring approval from the Federal Reserve Board [2]

Group 1 - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) on November 7 was reported at 3.93%, an increase from the previous day's rate of 3.92% [1] - The effective federal funds rate on the same day remained unchanged at 3.87%, consistent with the previous day's rate [1]

Core Insights - A senior Federal Reserve official warns that the increasing plight of the impoverished in the U.S. poses a risk of recession for the world's most important economy, highlighting the "balancing act" faced by Fed policymakers when considering a potential rate cut in December [1][2] Economic Conditions - New York Fed President Williams indicates that many low- and middle-income families are struggling with affordability issues, including high living costs and housing expenses, while wealthier Americans benefit from a soaring stock market [1] - Despite the overall resilience of the U.S. economy exceeding many economists' expectations, the pain experienced by vulnerable households suggests a potential deviation from economic stability [1][2] Labor Market Dynamics - Fed officials, including Powell and Waller, are increasingly focused on how the labor market, described by Williams as lacking "strong momentum," affects the economic outlook for ordinary Americans [2] - Signs of a cooling labor market have led the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in the last two policy meetings, with investors anticipating another cut next month, although Powell stated that further cuts are not a "foregone conclusion" [2] Consumer Confidence and AI Impact - Confidence has rebounded significantly due to optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and related investment trends, which have replaced previous pessimism regarding trade tensions [3] - While AI-related investments are stimulating growth, concerns about potential market bubbles persist, with Williams expressing cautious optimism about the transformative potential of AI [3] Monetary Policy and Market Signals - The Fed announced the end of its quantitative tightening experiment starting December 1, acknowledging recent funding pressures in the money market [3] - Williams refuted calls for the Fed to shift its benchmark interest rate to better reflect repo market borrowing costs, emphasizing the continued use of the federal funds rate as the policy rate [3]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve official Goolsbee stated that the ultimate stable level of the federal funds rate will be significantly lower than the current level [1] Group 1 - The current federal funds rate is perceived to be higher than what will be necessary in the long term [1] - Goolsbee's comments suggest a shift in monetary policy expectations, indicating potential easing in the future [1]

Group 1: Silver Futures Market - The total silver futures inventory reported by the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 658,851 kilograms, with a decrease of 6,693 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main silver futures contract opened at 11,449 yuan per kilogram, reached a high of 11,483 yuan per kilogram, a low of 11,245 yuan per kilogram, and closed at 11,455 yuan per kilogram, reflecting an increase of 0.39% [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - Cleveland Fed President Harker expressed an open attitude towards reforming the interest rate targets used in monetary policy, indicating a shift from the traditional federal funds rate to other interest rate indicators [2][3] - Harker emphasized the need for a certain degree of restrictiveness to bring inflation back to the 2% target, warning that lowering interest rates now would risk unleashing inflation [3]

Core Insights - The article examines the historical trends of the 10-year Treasury yield since 1962, highlighting its correlation with significant economic indicators such as the Fed Funds Rate, inflation, and the S&P 500 [1] Economic Indicators - The relationship between the 10-year Treasury yield and the Fed Funds Rate is analyzed, indicating how changes in monetary policy impact long-term interest rates [1] - Inflation trends are discussed in relation to the 10-year Treasury yield, emphasizing the yield's role as a predictor of future inflation expectations [1] - The article also explores the connection between the 10-year Treasury yield and the performance of the S&P 500, suggesting that shifts in yield can influence equity market dynamics [1]

今日周一(11月3日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于11410一线上方，今日开盘于11449元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报11423元/千克，上涨0.11%，最高触及11480元/千克，最低下探11245元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克周五表示，她对于改革美联储实施货币政策所采用的利率目标持开放态度。 在达拉斯联储举办的活动中，她指出货币市场结构已发生深刻变化，表明正在考虑从现行的联邦基金利 率目标转向其他利率指标。 "我认为现在应该更广泛地探索如何最优实施货币政策，"哈玛克在发言中强调。此番表态呼应了她近期 与达拉斯联储主席洛根形成的共识，即金融市场定价机制已逐渐脱离传统联邦基金利率的锚定效应。 另外她直言："我更倾向于本周保持利率不变。"在她看来，美联储刚降完25基点，当前政策利率已接近 她心目中的"中性水平"——"基本没有限制性，如果不是完全没有的话"。 哈玛克强调，要让通胀真正回到2%目标，必须维持"一定程度的限制性"。言外之意：现在降息等于给 通胀"松绑"，后患无穷。值得一提的是，哈玛克和洛根明年都将轮到FOMC投票席位，届时她们的鹰派 立 ...

Group 1 - The bond market is asserting its influence over interest rates, indicating a preference for higher rates despite the Federal Reserve's actions [1][2] - The current administration is focusing on stimulating the housing market, which is not responding positively, highlighting a disconnect between policy intentions and market realities [2] - Recent data shows that both 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields have increased, with a notable rise of 10 basis points this week [3] Group 2 - The dollar index has risen significantly, moving from close to 97 towards 100, reflecting the limitations of the Federal Reserve's ability to influence the market without resorting to quantitative easing [4] - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased from $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion, indicating progress but still remaining above pre-crisis levels [5]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, Harker, expressed an open attitude towards reforming the interest rate targets used in monetary policy, indicating a shift from the traditional federal funds rate to other interest rate indicators [1] Group 1 - Harker highlighted that the structure of the money market has undergone profound changes, suggesting a need to explore optimal implementations of monetary policy [1] - This statement aligns with a recent consensus formed with Dallas Fed President Logan, indicating that financial market pricing mechanisms are gradually detaching from the traditional anchoring effect of the federal funds rate [1]