金十数据5月15日讯，凯投宏观经济学家Adrian Prettejohn在一份报告中称，瑞士今年前三个月的经济增 长强于预期，这增加了瑞士央行在下月可能降息至零利率后不会将利率降至负值的可能性。瑞士第一季 度GDP增长0.7%，是自2023年初以来的最快增速。他说，这不像爱尔兰和其他欧洲国家那样是因为美 国关税前的囤积行为，因为瑞士央行的数据显示，1月和2月的贸易顺差有所收窄。然而，随着贸易不确 定性的冲击，增长可能会放缓，尽管它可能会比同行更强劲。随着通胀降温，家庭支出和实际收入的增 加应该会有所帮助。 瑞士经济快速增长降低负利率的可能性 ...

Group 1 - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0% in the upcoming policy meeting on June 19, returning to the level seen in September 2022 when the "zero interest rate" era ended [1] - The Swiss franc has reached a 10-year high against the US dollar and is close to its highest level against the euro, driven by capital fleeing US assets amid increased tariffs announced by President Trump [4] - The SNB is moving towards a zero interest rate policy to prevent further appreciation of the Swiss franc, which could lower domestic inflation and harm exports, negatively impacting economic growth [4] Group 2 - Among 20 forecasters, only one economist predicts a 50 basis point cut to -0.25% in June, while most expect a cut to -0.25% in September, indicating a potential end to the rate-cutting cycle in June [5] - The average inflation rate forecast for Switzerland in 2025 is 0.4%, aligning with the SNB's recent predictions, providing some comfort to policymakers [5] - Economic growth for Switzerland is projected at 1.1% for this year, with growth rates of 1.4% and 1.6% expected for 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating no significant slowdown in economic activity [5]

金十数据5月6日讯，德国商业银行认为，即使瑞士央行在周一公布低于预期的通胀数据后进一步降息， 瑞郎的下跌空间也有限。所有迹象都表明，6月份瑞士央行将再次降息25个基点至0%，观察瑞士央行此 后会采取什么措施将是件有趣的事情。即使负利率再次出现，每个市场参与者都应该清楚，瑞士央行的 操作空间是有限的，这可能会限制瑞郎的任何贬值。 即使瑞士央行降息，瑞郎也不太可能大幅下跌 ...

瑞士央行行长：没有人喜欢负利率，但如果必须采取措施，我们已做好再次实行的准备。 ...

瑞士央行行长：我们尚未排除实行负利率的可能性。 ...

Group 1 - The recent collective reduction of deposit rates by six major state-owned banks has caused significant concern among ordinary households, with three-year fixed deposit rates falling below 1.5% and large-denomination certificates of deposit yielding only 1.9% [1] - Over the past decade, there has been a clear downward trend in bank deposit rates, with three-year fixed deposit rates dropping from around 5% in 2015 to 1.5% today, leading to a substantial decrease in interest income for depositors [1] - The phenomenon of "negative interest rates" is pressuring many conservative investors and retirees who rely on deposit interest for income, as real returns may be negative when considering inflation [1] Group 2 - Investors are increasingly turning to the stock market as a response to shrinking savings, although the stock market carries its own risks and is not a guaranteed safe haven [1] - The annualized return of the Shanghai Composite Index over the past decade has been 5.8%, significantly higher than the current deposit rates, but this figure is accompanied by many investors' losses [1] Group 3 - Stock market investment requires caution, and investors should adhere to principles such as only using idle funds that are not needed for three years, limiting individual stock investments to no more than 20% of total assets, and focusing on essential sectors like consumer goods and healthcare [3] - Diversification is recommended for investors with lower risk tolerance, with options including high-quality bonds, money market funds, gold, and bank wealth management products [5] Group 4 - Ordinary households should enhance their financial literacy to rationally cope with the pressure of declining deposits, focusing on understanding different investment products and avoiding blind speculation [7] - It is essential to adopt a long-term investment perspective and optimize household financial structures to improve risk resilience, including reducing unnecessary expenses and increasing income sources [7]

瑞士接近通缩，加大央行重新转向负利率可能性 金十数据5月5日讯，今年4月，瑞士CPI跌至接近通缩水平的水平，这加大了瑞士央行在未来一年转向 负利率的可能性。该国2月份的通胀年率为0.0%，低于3月份的0.3%，服装、食品和航空运输价格的上 涨受到住宿和国内度假价格下跌的抑制。投资者普遍预计6月份瑞士央行将把基准利率从0.25%下调至 0%。由于投资者在特朗普关税闪电战中买入避险货币，瑞郎最近兑美元升值，引发了瑞士央行可能进 一步降息以限制货币强势的呼声。瑞士央行此前将利率维持在零以下近8年，直到2022年。 ...

金十整理：瑞郎一路狂飙 瑞士两难之下是选择拥抱"负利率"还是冒险干预汇市？ 经济面临重重难关 1. 瑞郎升值：避险资金无视基本面涌入瑞郎，仅在4月，瑞郎兑美元汇率一度上涨了9%。 2. 通胀低迷：最新数据显示，瑞士通胀年率仅为约0.3%，已经处于央行0%至2%目标范围的低端。 3. 国际贸易依赖：瑞士人口只有900万，是一个严重依赖进出口的市场经济国家，出口部门占GDP的近 70%。瑞郎升值将不利于出口，并加剧通缩压力。 4. 面临高额关税：美国对瑞士实施的对等关税税率为31%，高于欧盟对瑞士的税率。综合外媒报导，瑞 士对美出口额占总出口的10%以上。 5. 前景阴云密布：据瑞士国家银行的最新预测，2025年瑞士的GDP增长率预计在1%至1.5%之间，显著 低于其历史平均水平1.8%。 负利率还是外汇干预？陷入两难... 1. 政策空间有限 抑制瑞郎升值"黔驴技穷" 瑞士政策利率已经达到0.25%，若经济状况进一步恶化，剩下的常规弹药就所剩无几了，进一步降息将 走向负利率。 2. 高盛集团：预测瑞士央行将在9月之前连续两次降息25个基点，使政策利率降至-0.25%。 3. 机构调查：大多数机构预计瑞士将把利率 ...

金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（4月24日） 美元： 欧元： 1. 欧洲央行：预计今年工资增长将大幅放缓。 1. 英国利率掉期预计到2025年底降息84个基点，而此前的预期是90多个基点。 2. 英国宣布措施防止未来倾销定价不公平的进口产品，英国将重新审查低价值进口商品的关税。 3. 英国财政大臣里夫斯：英国不会急于美国展开贸易谈判，英国不会放松汽车、食品、网络安全标准以 争取达成与美国的贸易协议。 1. 中国央行逆回购操作当日实现净回笼275亿元。 2. 泰国政府考虑推出价值5000亿泰铢的经济刺激计划。 3. 阿根廷央行副行长：我们预计阿根廷比索将触及较低的区间。 4. 波兰央行官员Wnorowski：利率可能在五月份降低50个基点。 5. 野村证券：预计瑞士央行将再次采用负利率，并预计将在九月份达到终端利率为-0.25%的水平。 6. 市场减少了对欧洲央行降息的押注，预计到12月存款利率将降至1.65%左右，此前预期为1.55%。 英镑： 4. 路透调查：所有67位经济学家均预测英国央行将在5月8日将基准利率下调25个基点至4.25%。预计到 2025年底，英国央行将每季度下调基准利率25个基点 ...