Core Viewpoint - The structural risks of Japan's ultra-long-term government bonds are rising as yields continue to increase, with the 40-year yield reaching its highest level since issuance in 2007, indicating potential challenges for Japan's fiscal sustainability and global market stability [1][2][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - Japan's long-term bond yields are on the rise, with the 40-year yield increasing by 6 basis points to 3.675%, the highest since 2007 [1]. - The 10-year and 5-year government bond yields have also risen, reaching 1.56% and 1.02% respectively [1]. - The recent auction of 20-year bonds saw the lowest bid-to-cover ratio since 2012, dropping to 2.5 times, indicating weak market demand [2][4]. Group 2: Central Bank Challenges - The Bank of Japan holds 52% of the Japanese government bond market, acting as a stabilizer but facing a dilemma between continuing quantitative tightening (QT) and the risk of market volatility [5]. - If QT continues, long-term bond yields may rise further, leading to significant losses for bondholders and potentially forcing the Bank of Japan to reintroduce yield curve control (YCC) or negative interest rates [5]. - Conversely, if the Bank of Japan opts for quantitative easing (QE), it may alleviate market volatility but exacerbate inflationary pressures and lead to a depreciation of the yen [5]. Group 3: Economic Sentiment - A recent survey indicated that 65% of Japanese companies are calling for the Bank of Japan to pause its interest rate hike plans, reflecting concerns over economic contraction and uncertainty from external factors [6]. - The total national debt of Japan is projected to reach 1,323.7155 trillion yen by the end of the fiscal year 2024, marking a continuous increase and raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [7]. - The Japanese government is facing a fiscal dilemma, with rising expenditures due to inflation not being fully covered by tax revenues, leading to a precarious financial situation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in LPR (Loan Prime Rate) by the central bank signals an approaching era of zero and negative interest rates, which will have significant implications for the banking sector and the broader economy [1][6][12]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The central bank has lowered the 1-year LPR to 3% and the 5-year LPR to 3.5%, with major state-owned banks following suit by reducing deposit rates by up to 25 basis points [1][3]. - The 1-year fixed deposit rate has dropped to a historic low of 0.95%, marking the first time it has fallen below 1% [3][6]. - The trend of declining interest rates is expected to continue, potentially leading to zero or negative rates in the future [6][12]. Group 2: Banking Sector Implications - The profitability of commercial banks is under pressure due to a declining net interest margin, which has fallen to 1.43%, below the critical threshold of 1.8% [7][11]. - The reduction in deposit rates is a direct response to the need for banks to maintain profitability by lowering costs associated with deposits [12][18]. - The banking sector is facing challenges as the volume of non-performing loans remains significant, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.22% across major banks [10]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The shift towards lower interest rates is intended to encourage consumer spending and investment, as saving becomes less attractive [12][28]. - The government aims to alleviate the burden of existing debts for enterprises and local governments by creating a low-interest environment [12][16]. - Historical comparisons with Japan and the U.S. suggest that low or negative interest rates can stimulate economic activity and housing markets, as seen in the significant rise in U.S. housing prices during similar conditions [34][37]. Group 4: Housing Market Dynamics - The anticipated decrease in mortgage rates, potentially below 3%, is expected to stimulate housing demand, leading to a possible surge in property prices [18][30]. - However, the increase in demand may also result in stricter lending standards, making it more challenging for buyers to secure mortgages [31]. - The potential for rising inflation due to increased consumer spending and investment could further complicate the economic landscape [32].

当全球金融市场的焦点集中在美债走势之时，日本超长期国债的结构性风险正悄然的攀升，"供需错 位"导致日本债券拍卖遇冷，超长期日债收益率跳涨或导致全球金融市场震动，而作为日本国债最大的 买家，日本央行的量化紧缩能否持续推进再次出现了较大的不确定性。 截至5月20日发稿，日本20年期国债收益率跃升至2.555%，为2000年10月以来的最高水平；日本30年期 国债收益率上涨13个基点至纪录高点3.10%；40年期国债收益率则跃升10个基点至3.591%的历史最高 点。日本基准10年期国债收益率一度升至1.525%，为3月底以来高位。 日本债券市场的供需失衡也令日本央行陷入两难局面，一方面若日本央行持续推进量化紧缩（QT）， 可能导致长端债券收益率继续上行，引发债市剧烈波动，使持债机构面临巨大账面损失，最终甚至可能 迫使央行重启收益率曲线控制（YCC）或重新实施负利率。 另一方面，如果日本央行选择提前放弃紧缩政策，重新启动量化宽松（QE），虽然有助于缓解市场波 动，但可能加剧通胀压力，导致日元大幅贬值、资本外流。 日债收益率上升的"连锁反应" 日本央行的量化紧缩能否持续？ 当地时间5月20日，日本财务省进行的1万亿日 ...

智通财经5月20日电，瑞士央行行长表示，负利率是一种非常措施，前次使用产生了预期效果，不能排 除实行负利率的可能性。 ...

瑞士央行行长施莱格尔：负利率是一项非常措施，但上次使用时取得了预期效果。 ...

瑞士央行行长施莱格尔：我们不能排除负利率。 ...

瑞士央行行长表示不能排除负利率的可能性。 ...

Group 1 - Armstrong believes that Russia will destroy Ukraine by 2027 and Europe shortly thereafter, suggesting that influential figures in Washington are considering withdrawing from NATO [2] - Armstrong criticizes the current European leadership for their belief that they can take over Russia and seize its assets to resolve financial issues, highlighting the severe financial troubles faced by European pensions, banks, and bonds [4] - Armstrong asserts that Europe will lose the war against Russia and that if Trump were to withdraw from NATO, the U.S. would thrive financially compared to Europe [5] Group 2 - Armstrong recounts his past experience of being imprisoned for seven years due to a civil contempt charge related to his refusal to invest $10 billion to take over Russia, which he claims was part of a larger scheme to control Russian assets [3] - The narrative suggests that the motivation for war from European leaders stems from a desire to control $75 trillion worth of natural resources in Russia, exacerbated by their financial mismanagement since 2014 [4]

欧元兑瑞郎涨0.3%至0.93766，瑞士央行行长称如果经济形势需要，瑞士央行将实行负利率。 ...

瑞士央行行长：不排除负利率在未来成为必要工具的可能性。瑞士央行不喜欢负利率。 ...