Core Insights - Beijing's general public budget revenue reached 452.88 billion yuan from January to August, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [1] Revenue Analysis - Local tax revenue amounted to 397.86 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, accounting for 87.9% of total revenue, indicating the highest revenue quality nationwide [1] - Value-added tax generated 139.38 billion yuan, growing by 3.3%, driven mainly by the growth in internet wholesale and key enterprises in the new energy vehicle sector [1] - Corporate income tax totaled 124.66 billion yuan, reflecting a robust year-on-year growth of 13.6%, supported by improved operational efficiency in key information technology enterprises [1] - Personal income tax reached 54.56 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, maintaining a growth rate of around 7% since the second quarter, influenced by an active capital market and dividends from listed companies [1] Expenditure Analysis - Total general public budget expenditure was 545.66 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, with a focus on optimizing expenditure structure and ensuring financial support for key projects and public welfare initiatives [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom, with weak repair momentum. In the short term, institutional behavior, expectations of incremental policies, and changes in the capital market are the main driving factors. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue in August economic data, and the bond market is unlikely to trend downward significantly, with yields expected to remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and focus on term spread trading opportunities brought by the steepening of the yield curve [97][98] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Performance of Treasury Futures Contracts**: The 30 - year TL2512 contract fell 0.41%, the 10 - year T2512 contract rose 0.12%, the 5 - year TF2512 contract rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2512 contract fell 0.02%. The trading volumes of TS, TF, and T contracts increased, while that of the TL contract decreased. The open interests of all TS, TF, T, and TL contracts increased [13][17][23][31] - **Performance of Deliverable Bonds**: The prices of some deliverable bonds changed, such as the 30 - year 210005 IB falling 0.14 and the 10 - year 220017 IB rising 0.05 [13] 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, social consumer goods retail sales reached 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, and fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.20% month - on - month. The urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%. The Sino - US economic and trade leaders held talks and reached a basic framework consensus on some issues [34] - **Overseas News**: US retail sales in August were 732.01 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. The initial jobless claims were 231,000, a significant drop. The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4% - 4.25% [10][35][36] 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Yield Spreads**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year bonds widened slightly, while the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year bonds narrowed slightly. The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, 5 - year and 10 - year contract main contracts widened slightly. The 10 - year and 30 - year contract inter - period spreads widened significantly, the 5 - year contract inter - period spread narrowed, and the 2 - year contract inter - period spread widened [44][48][52] - **Treasury Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T contract increased significantly [64] - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yields**: Overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all increased. The yields of treasury bonds due in 1 - 7 years changed between - 1 and 2 basis points, and the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year bonds rose by about 0.4 and 1 basis points to 1.80% and 2.10% respectively [68] - **Sino - US Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year Sino - US treasury bonds widened slightly [73] - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1826.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits, with 1264.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing, resulting in a net injection of 592.3 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.50% [77] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 1708.793 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 1190.265 billion yuan, and a net financing of 518.528 billion yuan [81] - **Market Sentiment** - **USD/CNY Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1128, with a cumulative depreciation of 109 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB weakened [86] - **US Treasury Yields and VIX Index**: The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds oscillated upward, and the VIX index increased [91] - **A - Share Risk Premium**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds decreased, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [94] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In August, industrial growth, social retail, and export growth slowed down, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate rose seasonally. Social financing growth declined slightly, and credit growth was weak. The economic recovery has slowed down since July, and the manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range. Supply - demand contradictions persist, and macro - policies need to boost domestic demand [97] - **Overseas Situation**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased significantly, but overall employment growth slowed down. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in October increased [97] - **Bond Market Outlook and Strategy**: The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom, with weak repair momentum. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue, and the bond market is unlikely to trend downward significantly. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and focus on term spread trading opportunities [98]

本报北京9月18日电(记者汪文正)记者从财政部获悉，今年前8个月，全国一般公共预算收入148198亿 元，同比增长0.3%。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算收入64268亿元，同比下降1.7%；地方一般公 共预算本级收入83930亿元，同比增长1.8%。 今年前8个月，全国税收收入121085亿元，同比微增0.02%；非税收入27113亿元，同比增长1.5%。从主 要税收收入项目来看，国内增值税47389亿元，同比增长3.2%；国内消费税11523亿元，同比增长2%； 企业所得税31477亿元，同比增长0.3%；个人所得税10547亿元，同比增长8.9%。 支出方面，各级财政部门认真落实更加积极的财政政策，加大支出强度，优化支出结构，持续加强对重 点领域的支出保障。前8个月，全国一般公共预算支出179324亿元，同比增长3.1%。分中央和地方看， 中央一般公共预算本级支出26570亿元，同比增长8%；地方一般公共预算支出152754亿元，同比增长 2.3%。 看主要支出科目，前8个月，教育支出27078亿元，同比增长5.6%；科学技术支出5874亿元，同比增长 3.1%；文化旅游体育与传媒支出2272亿元，同 ...

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - From January to August, the national general public budget revenue reached CNY 14,819.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%[2] - Tax revenue for the same period was CNY 12,108.5 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year[2] - General public budget expenditure from January to August totaled CNY 17,932.4 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[2] Monthly Performance Insights - In August, general public budget revenue increased by 2% year-on-year, down from 2.6% in the previous month[3] - Tax revenue in August saw a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, a decline from 5% in July[3] - Non-tax revenue in August decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, improving from a decline of 12.9% in July[3] Structural Changes in Revenue - Personal income tax grew by 9.7% year-on-year, down from 13.9% previously, contributing 1.1 percentage points to tax revenue[12] - Corporate income tax surged by 33.4% year-on-year, significantly up from 6.4%, contributing 2.3 percentage points to tax revenue[12] - Value-added tax increased slightly from 4.3% to 4.4% year-on-year, contributing 2.1 percentage points to tax revenue[12] Expenditure Trends - General public expenditure in August grew by only 0.8% year-on-year, down from 3% in July[14] - Infrastructure-related expenditure saw a significant decline of 10.1% year-on-year, worsening from a decline of 3.8% previously[15] - Social welfare expenditure increased by 6.3% year-on-year, down from 9.7%[15] Government Fund Budget Performance - Government fund revenue in August decreased by 5.7% year-on-year, with land transfer revenue dropping by 5.8%[21] - Government fund expenditure continued to decline, with a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, down from 42.4%[21] - For the first eight months, government fund revenue decreased by 1.4%, while expenditure grew by 30%[21] Economic Outlook - The GDP growth rate for August is estimated to be below 4%, with a potential rebound in September but a noticeable decline in overall third-quarter growth compared to the first half of the year[25] - There is a need for enhanced fiscal policy to support economic growth, with plans to expedite the use of unallocated funds[26]

Industry Overview Upstream - Glass prices have declined [1] - Egg prices have significantly rebounded [1] Midstream - PX and PTA operating rates have remained stable at a medium level [2] - Coal consumption by power plants has increased [2] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third-tier cities have rebounded [2] - The number of domestic flights has increased [2] Key Events Production Industry - On the 17th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology publicly solicited opinions from the society on the mandatory national standard "Safety Requirements for Intelligent Connected Vehicle Combined Driving Assistance Systems". The draft for comments has established a safety baseline for intelligent connected vehicle products, requiring the system to be activated only under its designed operating conditions. For different functions such as single-lane, multi-lane, and pilot assistance, comprehensive safety technical requirements such as human-machine interaction, functional safety and expected functional safety, information safety, and data recording have been set, constructing a "triple safety guarantee" [1] Service Industry - The Ministry of Finance released the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation from January to August 2025, showing that the stamp duty revenue was 284.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.4%. Among them, the securities transaction stamp duty revenue was 118.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.7%. According to the data previously released by the Ministry of Finance, the securities transaction stamp duty revenue from January to July 2025 was 93.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.5%. This means that the securities transaction stamp duty in August this year was 25.1 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 66.23% compared to 15.1 billion yuan in July and a year-on-year increase of 225.97% compared to August 2024 [1] Key Data Price Index | Industry Name | Index Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Price | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price: Corn | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 2294.3 | -0.68% | | Agriculture | Spot price: Egg | H | Yuan/kg | 9/16 | 7.9 | 11.63% | | Agriculture | Spot price: Palm oil | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 9516.0 | -0.04% | | Agriculture | Spot price: Cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 15299.8 | -0.23% | | Agriculture | Average wholesale price: Pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 9/16 | 19.9 | 0.10% | | Non-ferrous metals | Spot price: Copper | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 81196.7 | 1.64% | | Non-ferrous metals | Spot price: Zinc | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 22218.0 | 0.22% | | Non-ferrous metals | Spot price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 20960.0 | 1.29% | | Non-ferrous metals | Spot price: Nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 123750.0 | 1.63% | | Non-ferrous metals | Spot price: Aluminum | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 17031.3 | 1.49% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price: Rebar | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 3148.0 | -0.17% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price: Iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 807.9 | 0.97% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price: Wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 3352.5 | 1.06% | | Others | Spot price: Glass | H | Yuan/square meter | 9/16 | 14.0 | -1.75% | | Others | Spot price: Natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 15166.7 | -0.05% | | Others | China Plastic City Price Index | H | Point | 9/16 | 793.6 | -0.54% | | Energy | Spot price: WTI crude oil | H | US dollars/barrel | 9/16 | 63.3 | 1.67% | | Energy | Spot price: Brent crude oil | H | US dollars/barrel | 9/16 | 67.4 | 2.15% | | Energy | Spot price: Liquefied natural gas | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 3876.0 | -0.56% | | Energy | Coal price: Coal | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 776.0 | -0.26% | | Chemical | Spot price: PTA | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 4633.8 | -0.21% | | Chemical | Spot price: Polyethylene | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 7378.3 | -0.18% | | Chemical | Spot price: Urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 1665.0 | -1.55% | | Chemical | Spot price: Soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 1262.5 | 0.00% | | Real estate | Cement price index: National | H | Point | 9/16 | 131.5 | 0.72% | | Real estate | Building materials composite index | H | Point | 9/16 | | 0.84% | | Real estate | Concrete price index: National index | H | Point | 9/16 | 92.0 | -0.72% | [33]

./01234567892025-09-18 8 !"#$%&'()*+,-./01234 ——!"#$%&'(! !"#$ 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 !"#$%&"'() *+,-./01121/34 5) !"#$% 北京时间 2025 年 9 月 17 日财政部公布 2025 年 1-8 月财政收支情况。其中：一般公共预 算收入同比增长 0.3%（增值税 3.2 %，个人所得税 8.9 %，印花税 27.4 %、企业所得税 增长 0.3 %；消费税 2 %、出口退税 9 %）；一般公共预算支出同比 3.1 %（社会保障和 就业 10 %；教育 5.6 %）。政府性基金预算收入同比-1.4 %（中央 0.6 %，地方-1.6 %）； 政府性基金预算支出同比 30 %（中央 3.1 倍，地方 18.8 %）。 &'"( ■ !"#$%& 一般公共预算收入：2025 年 1-8 月一般公共预算收入进度 67.4%，略低于过去五年同期 均值，名义增长的压力依然存在。8月 CPI同比下降 0.4%，维持低通胀的特征。累计增 速年扩大， ...

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue - From January to August, the national general public budget revenue reached 14,819.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 12,108.5 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.02% [1] - Non-tax revenue was 2,711.3 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.5% [1] - Central government revenue was 6,426.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [1] - Local government revenue was 8,393.0 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [1] Group 2: Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax revenue was 4,738.9 billion yuan, increasing by 3.2% year-on-year [1] - Domestic consumption tax revenue reached 1,152.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2% [1] - Revenue from import goods value-added tax and consumption tax was 1,177.0 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 6.7% [1] - Tariff revenue was 152.7 billion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year [1] - Stamp duty revenue was 284.4 billion yuan, increasing by 27.4% year-on-year, with securities transaction stamp duty at 118.7 billion yuan, up 81.7% [1] Group 3: Fiscal Expenditure - From January to August, national general public budget expenditure totaled 17,932.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [2] - Central government expenditure was 2,657.0 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8% [2] - Local government expenditure reached 15,275.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [2] Group 4: Key Areas of Expenditure - Education expenditure was 27,078 billion yuan, increasing by 5.6% year-on-year [2] - Science and technology expenditure reached 5,874 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [2] - Social security and employment expenditure was 30,723 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 10% [2] - Health expenditure totaled 13,717 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [2]

Revenue Summary - From January to August, the national general public budget revenue reached 14,819.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 12,108.5 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year [1] - Non-tax revenue was 2,711.3 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.5% [1] - Central government revenue was 6,426.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [1] - Local government revenue was 8,393.0 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [1] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax revenue was 4,738.9 billion yuan, increasing by 3.2% year-on-year [1] - Domestic consumption tax revenue reached 1,152.3 billion yuan, up by 2% year-on-year [1] - Revenue from import goods value-added tax and consumption tax was 1,177.0 billion yuan, down by 6.7% year-on-year [1] - Tariff revenue was 152.7 billion yuan, decreasing by 6.5% year-on-year [1] - Stamp duty revenue was 284.4 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 27.4% year-on-year, including securities transaction stamp duty of 118.7 billion yuan, which surged by 81.7% [1] Expenditure Summary - From January to August, the national general public budget expenditure totaled 17,932.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [2] - Central government expenditure was 2,657.0 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8% [2] - Local government expenditure reached 15,275.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [2] Key Areas of Expenditure - Education expenditure was 27,078 billion yuan, increasing by 5.6% year-on-year [2] - Science and technology expenditure was 5,874 billion yuan, up by 3.1% year-on-year [2] - Social security and employment expenditure reached 30,723 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 10% [2] - Health expenditure was 13,717 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [2]

Group 1 - In August, the national general public budget revenue continued to grow, with a total of 1.24 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 2% [1] - For the first eight months, the total general public budget revenue reached 14.82 trillion yuan, growing by 0.3%, with the tax revenue turning positive for the first time [1] - Key tax categories such as domestic value-added tax, domestic consumption tax, and personal income tax showed stable growth rates of 3.2%, 2%, and 8.9% respectively [1] Group 2 - National general public budget expenditure maintained growth, with total expenditure for the first eight months at 17.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [2] - Expenditure in key areas such as social security and employment grew by 10%, while education expenditure increased by 5.6% [2] - The acceleration of bond fund issuance and utilization contributed to a 30% increase in government fund budget expenditure [2] Group 3 - Overall, the fiscal operation in the first eight months was stable, with an optimized revenue structure and strong support for key expenditure areas [3] - The need for a continued proactive fiscal policy is emphasized to enhance economic and fiscal interaction [3]

Revenue Summary - From January to August, the national general public budget revenue reached 14,819.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 12,108.5 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.02% [1] - Non-tax revenue was 2,711.3 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.5% [1] - Central government revenue was 6,426.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [1] - Local government revenue was 8,393.0 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [1] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax revenue was 4,738.9 billion yuan, increasing by 3.2% year-on-year [1] - Domestic consumption tax revenue reached 1,152.3 billion yuan, up by 2% year-on-year [1] - Revenue from import goods value-added tax and consumption tax was 1,177.0 billion yuan, down by 6.7% year-on-year [1] - Tariff revenue was 152.7 billion yuan, decreasing by 6.5% year-on-year [1] - Stamp duty revenue was 284.4 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 27.4%, including securities transaction stamp duty of 118.7 billion yuan, which surged by 81.7% [1] Expenditure Summary - From January to August, the national general public budget expenditure totaled 17,932.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [2] - Central government expenditure was 2,657.0 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8% [2] - Local government expenditure reached 15,275.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [2] Key Areas of Expenditure - Education expenditure was 27,078.0 billion yuan, increasing by 5.6% year-on-year [2] - Science and technology expenditure amounted to 5,874.0 billion yuan, up by 3.1% year-on-year [2] - Social security and employment expenditure reached 30,723.0 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 10% [2] - Health expenditure was 13,717.0 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [2]