Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the implementation of an active fiscal policy in China to support stable economic operations, with a focus on increasing government spending despite a slight decline in revenue [2][12] - In the first five months of 2025, the general public budget expenditure reached 11.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, with a completion rate of 37.4%, which is close to the average of the past five years [8][9] - The broad fiscal expenditure is projected to be 14.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 6.6%, while the revenue is expected to be 11.2 trillion yuan, showing a decline of about 1.3% [2][3] Group 2 - The general public budget revenue for the first five months was 9.7 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, with tax revenue declining by 1.6% to 7.9 trillion yuan [3][4] - Non-tax revenue increased by 6.2% to 1.7 trillion yuan, although it experienced a decline in May compared to the same month last year, marking the first negative growth in 2024 [4][6] - Government bond issuance accelerated, with 6.29 trillion yuan issued in the first five months, a year-on-year increase of 38.5%, to support fiscal spending [8][12] Group 3 - The government is focusing on social welfare, education, and health, with social security and employment spending reaching 2 trillion yuan, a growth of 9.2%, and education spending at 1.7 trillion yuan, up 6.7% [9][12] - The local government fund revenue, primarily from land sales, declined by 6.9% to 15.48 billion yuan, with land use rights revenue dropping by 11.9% to 11.28 billion yuan [7][8] - The fiscal deficit for the first five months was approximately 3.3 trillion yuan, indicating a deficit rate of 2.4%, which is higher than most levels in the past five years [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance reported a decline in national public budget revenue for the first five months of the year, indicating challenges in fiscal performance despite some positive trends in specific tax categories [2][3]. Revenue Analysis - Total public budget revenue reached 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% [2]. - Tax revenue amounted to 79,156 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 6.2% to 17,467 billion yuan [2]. - Central government revenue was 41,486 billion yuan, a decline of 3%, while local government revenue grew by 1.9% to 55,137 billion yuan [2]. Tax Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax grew by 2.4% to 30,850 billion yuan, with the increase attributed to a low base effect from the previous year [3]. - Corporate income tax saw a year-on-year decline of 2.5%, although the rate of decline improved by 0.6 percentage points [2][3]. - Personal income tax increased by 8.2%, benefiting from a low base effect as well [2][3]. - Securities transaction stamp duty surged by 52.4% to 66.8 billion yuan, indicating a significant recovery in capital market activity [3]. Expenditure Trends - National public budget expenditure reached 112,953 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [3]. - Spending on livelihood-related areas maintained a growth rate of approximately 7.8%, while infrastructure spending decreased by 7.7% [4]. - Expenditure on technology and innovation surged by 20.1%, highlighting a focus on enhancing industrial resilience [4]. Fiscal Policy Outlook - The overall fiscal deficit reached 3.30 trillion yuan by May, with a deficit rate of 2.4%, higher than most levels in the past five years [5]. - The sustainability of fiscal efforts post-June is under scrutiny, especially as previous fiscal measures have relied heavily on government debt financing [5]. - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for timely policy adjustments to stabilize employment and the economy, with expectations for more fiscal measures in the second half of the year [5].

Core Viewpoint - The audit report from the National Audit Office outlines the central budget execution and other fiscal revenues and expenditures for the year 2024, indicating a balanced budget with a deficit of 33,400 million yuan [1] Group 1: Central Budget Overview - The total revenue of the central general public budget is projected to be 108,844.06 million yuan, while the total expenditure is expected to reach 142,244.06 million yuan, resulting in a deficit of 33,400 million yuan, which aligns with the budget plan [1] - The central government fund budget is expected to have a total revenue of 15,126.64 million yuan and total expenditure of 14,711.77 million yuan [1] - The central state-owned capital operation budget is projected to have a revenue of 2,359.42 million yuan and expenditure of 2,305.2 million yuan [1] - The central social insurance fund budget is expected to have a revenue of 3,005.6 million yuan and expenditure of 2,959.73 million yuan, with a year-end balance of 85.58 million yuan [1] Group 2: Investment Allocation - The National Development and Reform Commission is managing the allocation of 700,000 million yuan in central budget investments, with 1,635 million yuan designated for central-level expenditures and 5,365 million yuan for transfers to local governments [1] - The investments are primarily directed towards eight key areas, including the construction of a modern industrial system, new urbanization, rural revitalization, regional coordinated development, and the advancement of national security systems and capabilities [1]

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue was 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to January to April [1] - Tax revenue for the same period was 79,156 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points; non-tax revenue was 17,467 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.5 percentage points [1] - In May, the general public budget revenue growth rate was 0.1%, slowing by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, with tax revenue growth dropping from 1.9% to 0.6% and non-tax revenue turning negative at -2.2% [2] Group 2: Fiscal Expenditure - From January to May, national general public budget expenditure was 112,953 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with the growth rate falling by 0.4 percentage points [1] - In May, general public budget expenditure grew by 2.6% year-on-year, slowing by 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, with significant declines in infrastructure spending, which fell by 7.7% [4] - Key areas of expenditure such as social security and employment saw a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, while education and health spending grew by 6.7% and 3.9%, respectively [4] Group 3: Economic Analysis - The slowdown in revenue is attributed to factors such as the decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), the unsustainable high growth of non-tax revenue, and weakened land transfer income [1] - The analysis indicates that the increase in value-added tax revenue reflects a trend of economic recovery, supported by robust growth in the equipment manufacturing sector [2] - The government is expected to accelerate bond issuance to support fiscal expenditure, especially in light of the revenue slowdown and strong expenditure performance in the first four months [5]

广 发证券资 深宏观分析师 吴棋滢 wuqiying@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 5 月财政收入增速小幅回踩。公共财政收入同比、税收收入同比分别回落至 0.1% （前值 1.9% ）、 0.6% （前值 1.9% ），但 仍位于正值区间，强于一季度表现。非税收入同比 -2.2% ，为 2024 年以来首次转负。应与财政收入对非税收入的依赖有所减轻有关， 今年预算对非税收入增长目标有明显下调 （目标增速 -14.2% ）。前 5 个月公共财政收入累计同比 -0.3% ，距离年初目标差值（ 0.37 个百分点）较前期有所收窄。 第二， 分税种来看，国内增值税表现较好，累计同比 2.4% ，或与工业企业利润增速好转有关；个人所得税表现较好，累计同比涨幅 扩大至 8.2% （去年年度为 -1.7% ），与低基数、汇算清缴、二手房交易较为活跃、股市年内表现较好背景下部分股东减持等因素有 关。消费税表现中性，和今年较高的社零增速有一定直观上的反差，主要是消费税中烟酒车油等占比较高，其中前两者增速不快；汽车 零售辆增速较快，但由于降价，零售额增速并不快。税收收入的主要拖累项一是外贸环节相关税种， ...

事件：6月20日，财政部公布1-5月财政收支情况。1-5月，全国一般公共预算收入96623亿元，同比下降 0.3%；一般公共预算支出112953亿元，同比增长4.2%。 报告摘要 风险提示：宏观经济不及预期、海外市场大幅波动、历史经验不代表未来。 赤字方面，5月广义赤字幅度保持增长。今年1-5月，实际赤字累计达16330亿元，赤字规模为近五年最 高，去年同期仅为11447亿元，同比增长4883亿元。而考虑政府性基金后，今年1-5月的广义赤字规模为 32972亿元，去年同期29380亿元，同比增长3592亿元。 考虑财政收支预算节奏，今年1-5月财政收支节奏整体平稳。1-5月，公共财政收入完成全年预算 43.9%，较去年增长0.6个百分点。公共财政支出完成38.0%，与去年持平，财政收支节奏整体平稳。 摘要：5月财政收支两端增速均有回落，但整体维持正增长。1-5月，全国一般公共预算收入96623亿 元，同比下降0.3%，降幅较上个月继续收窄；一般公共预算支出112953亿元，同比增长4.2%，增幅略 有回落。单月看，5月公共财政收入当月同比增长0.13%；公共财政支出当月同比增长2.63%，增速均有 一定回落。 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 收入改善有波折，支出放缓待发力 ——5 月财政数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 1-5 月财政收支有以下特点：1）财政收入累计降幅收窄，但税收修复边际有所放缓； 2）个人所得税延续修复，地产相关税收拖累加剧；3）财政支出节奏边际放缓，基建支出降幅 走扩；4）政府性基金收入降幅走扩、支出放缓。往前看，若下半年国内外形势出现新的变化， 财政应对主要有三条：1）加速存量，重点关注用于项目建设的专项债发行是否提速；2）调整 存量，重点关注财政资金对于地产相关、促消费、保民生等领域的支持和补贴力度；3）储备增 量，包括政府债限额空间、央行利润上缴、财政结余资金、类财政工具、新增政府债额度等。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 宋筱筱 蒋佳榛 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490520080011 SAC：S0490524080005 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BVZ974 2025 年 6 月 20 日，财政部公布 2025 年 1-5 月财政数据：1-5 月，全国一般公共预算收入 ...

证书编号：S0790524110002 事件：5 月，全国一般公共预算收入 16007 亿元，全国一般公共预算支出 19372 亿元。政府性基金预算收入 2897 亿元，政府性基金预算支出 5989 亿元。 财政收支增速放缓，支出加大科技民生投入 1、5 月公共财政收入增速放缓。5 月狭义财政收入 16007 亿元，同比增长 0.13%， 增速较前值下滑 1.76 个百分点。1-5 月公共财政收入累计同比下滑 0.3%，降幅 基本持平前值。从结构看，税收收入增长遇阻，非税收入增速继续走低。5 月税 收收入降速，同比增长 0.6%（前值 1.9%），截至 5 月税收较去年累计下降 1.6%， 与全年+3.7%的目标仍有差距。非税收入增速由正转负，同比下滑 2.2%（前值为 +1.7%），相比税收收入，非税收入降幅相对更大。主要税种中个人所得税、增 值税保持高增，消费税和企业所得税基本持平去年。个税和企业所得税之间出现 分化，个税收入同比增长 12%、企业所得税基本为零增长。个税收入高增或与 2024 年基数持续偏低、征税范围扩大有关。企业所得税增速延续回落，部分外 贸企业营收仍受对等关税影响。国内增值税同比增长 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance reported a slight decline in national public budget revenue for the first five months of the year, with a total revenue of approximately 9.66 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% [1]. Revenue Breakdown - Tax revenue amounted to about 7.92 trillion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to the previous months [1][2]. - Non-tax revenue reached 1.75 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, although this growth has slowed compared to earlier months [1][6]. Tax Categories - Domestic value-added tax (VAT) was approximately 3.09 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, aligning with stable growth in industrial output and service production [2]. - Corporate income tax totaled 2.18 trillion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year, indicating a trend of "increased revenue without increased profit" among businesses [2]. - Export tax rebates were 1.08 trillion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year, reflecting resilient export performance [2]. - Personal income tax reached 657.2 billion yuan, with an 8.2% year-on-year increase, indicating strong growth in individual earnings [2][4]. Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector showed significant tax revenue growth, with railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace manufacturing increasing by 28.8%, and computer and communication equipment manufacturing by 11.9% [6]. - The cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors saw a tax revenue increase of 7.8%, driven by recovering consumer demand [6]. - The digital economy and related sectors also performed well, with tax revenue from information transmission and software services growing by 10%, and scientific research and technical services by 12.7% [6]. Expenditure Insights - Total public budget expenditure for the first five months was approximately 11.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, indicating strong government spending despite declining revenue [6]. - The issuance of local special bonds accelerated, with 1.6 trillion yuan issued, accounting for 37% of the annual quota [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the continuous growth in both revenue and expenditure in the region's fiscal budget for the first five months of the year, with public budget revenue reaching 755.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and public budget expenditure totaling 2563.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [1] - Tax revenue has shown a positive trend, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4% for the first five months, improving significantly from a mere 0.04% growth in the first four months [1] - Expenditure from municipal and county finances has also increased, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%, and 13 out of 14 municipalities reporting positive growth in expenditure [1] Group 2 - In the area of public welfare, spending reached a historical high of 2014.88 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, maintaining a proportion of around 80% of total public budget expenditure [2] - Significant growth was observed in various sectors, including commercial services (38.2%), energy conservation and environmental protection (31.8%), transportation (25.8%), technology (15.1%), agriculture (10.3%), and education (8.9%) [2]